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Losing Early, Now What Needs to Happen - 2010 Chaos Theory

Wingate1217;1795511; said:
Just a question what was the ratings of the Fiesta Bowl last year (Boise vs. TCU) versus the rest of the bowls?
According to BCSFootball.org

2009-10 Bowl Game TV Ratings

BOWL GAME
TEAMS
TV RATING
ATTEND

Bowl Games
Championship
Alabama-Texas
17.17
94,906
Fiesta
Boise State-TCU
8.23
73,227
Orange
Iowa-Georgia
6.80
66,131
Rose
Ohio State-Oregon
13.18
93,963
Sugar
Cincinnati-Florida
8.50
65,207

Other Bowls
Alamo
Michigan State-Texas Tech
5.61
64,757
Armed Forces
Houston-Air Force
1.83
41,414
Capital One
Penn State-LSU
6.83
63,025
Champs Sports
Miami (Fla.)-Wisconsin
4.53
56,747
Chick-fil-A
Virginia Tech-Tennessee
4.90
76,777
Cotton
Oklahoma State-Ole Miss
4.54
77,928
EagleBank
UCLA-Temple
2.20
23,072
Emerald
Boston College-USC
5.34
40,121
Gator
West Virginia-Florida State
3.95
84,129
GMAC
Central Michigan-Troy
2.73
34,486
Hawaii
Nevada-SMU
1.97
32,650
Holiday
Arizona-Nebraska
4.31
64,607
Humanitarian
Bowling Green-Idaho
2.39
26,726
Independence
Texas A&M-Georgia
2.36
49,653
Insight
Minnesota-Iowa State
0.83
45,000
International
South Florida-Northern Illinois
1.27
22,185
Las Vegas
Oregon State-BYU
2.58
40,018
Liberty
Arkansas-East Carolina
4.38
62,742
Little Caesar
Marshall-Ohio
2.97
30,311
Meineke Car Care
Pittsburgh-North Carolina
4.56
50,389
Music City
Kentucky-Clemson
1.95
57,280
New Mexico
Fresno State-Wyoming
2.78
24,898
New Orleans
Southern Miss-Middle Tenn.
0.76
30,228
Outback
Iowa-South Carolina
4.06
49,383
Papajohns.com
South Carolina-Connecticut
1.84
45,254
Poinsettia
Utah-California
2.81
32,665
St. Petersburg
UCF-Rutgers
1.89
29,763
Sun
Oklahoma-Stanford
3.31
53,713
Texas
Navy-Missouri
2.47
69,441
 
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For the record, University of Phoenix Stadium, where the Fiesta Bowl is played, capacity is officially listed as 63,400, expandable to 72,200, yet the attendance of the last Fiesta Bowl is recorded at 73,227. The largest attendance of the Fiesta Bowl at the new stadium was in the first one played there, Boise St vs Oklahoma in 2007 (73,719). Of the four Fiesta Bowls played at the new stadium, Boise St vs TCU ranks second in attendance ahead of Texas vs OSU (72,047).

TV ratings are a different story. Over the same time span, Boise St vs TCU ranked third of the four games (8.2), while OSU vs Texas ranked first (10.4).

This is not counting the BCS NC game, OSU vs Florida, which recorded an attendance of 74,628 and a TV rating of 17.4.

Sources: FiestaBowl.org & UniversityofPhoenixStadium.com
 
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2010 Chaos theory has two parts. First, we want to see teams lose which are ahead of the Bucks in any of the Harris, Coaches' and the computers, which is, uh, a lot of teams. :( This helps first and foremost as a Rose Bowl tiebreaker in the B10, plus makes it possible to sneak into the MNC game. Let's leave the comments as to whether that's even a good idea or not to some other thread.

Second, we want to see any teams tied or ahead in the Big Ten standings lose, since no matter what the BCS standings are, the Big Ten champ goes to the Rose Bowl.

Chaos this week:

UCLA 3-3 at Oregon 6-0 (BCS #2): Root for the Bruins, though not a high priority. The Oregon love fest is in full bloom, and even with a loss, they might not fall below OSU in the human polls.

Purdue 4-2 at OSU 6-1 (BCS #10): Convincing win needed to demonstrate that the wheels didn't come off in Madison and that this team is back on track. This game can help establish in voters' minds whether last week was an aberration or start of a pattern. Root for three to four score blowout. Despite being 4-2, Purdue isn't worth much to the computers, so all we can do out of this is impress the humans.

MSU 7-0 (BCS #7) at Northwestern 5-1: Wear purple underwear or something, because this week you're a fan of the Fighting Fitzgeralds. Sorry. A win for the Wildcats dumps the one team we need to see lose, for obvious reasons. This bumps us in the BCS and puts us back into a first place tie in the conference. This is tied for being the second most important game to us this week.

Wisconsin 6-1 (BCS #13) at Iowa 5-1 (BCS #15): The other second most important game this week, and we definitely want an Iowa win. Wisconsin is certainly ahead of OSU on some poll ballots and in some computers, and is tied in conference standings, leading the tiebreaker due to head-to-head. Just as with MSU, we need them to lose, because we don't control our own destiny at this point. Plus a win for Iowa makes them a more impressive opponent down the road, and the Buckeyes will need a quality opponent/win toward the end of the year to move up in the polls and possibly pass an unbeaten non-AQ school.

LSU 7-0 (BCS #6) at Auburn 7-0 (BCS #4): LSU has limped into sixth with a whimper. We want an Auburn blowout to drop the yellow-clad Tigers below us in the BCS. Because Auburn is getting lots of media love, it's another team like Oregon which might not drop below OSU with a loss this week. LSU will, especially if they get hammered. This is probably our highest interest non-conference game this week.

Oklahoma 6-0 (BCS #1) at Missouri 6-0 (BCS #11): Tough call, because a Missouri win would leapfrog them past OSU in the BCS and might not drop Oklahoma below #10. If the chips fall right, we could see OSU get up to 7th in the BCS this week, but an Oklahoma loss would probably wreck that. My take is see Missouri lose, eliminating them from the picture, and hope for a late loss (B12 CCG?) for OU.

Utah, TCU and Boise: Boise plays BYE, which isn't any different from the rest of their schedule. Utah plays Colorado State and TCU plays Air Force. Both are at home. Obviously, we're rooting for lightning to strike in one of those games, as any loss by the non-BCS schools drops them from the running completely. Air Force has a chance, CSU probably does not. These are high rooting interest for us, at least until the visiting team goes down by three TDs seven minutes into the first quarter.

Previous OSU opponents Miami, Marshall, EMU, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin: All are pretty much worthless, though you can try rooting for Miami-ACC against UNC if your stomach can take it. UI and IU play each other, so that's a wash, we need a Wisconsin loss, Marshall is going to get clobbered by ECU, EMU is at Virginia and OU is at Miami-MAC. Expect no help at all here.

I'm not even going to bother with Alabama at Tennecheat. Words like "plunger", "prison", and "ape" apply here. An Alabama loss would be great. So would being able to sweat lollipops, neither of which is terribly likely.

Any upward movement in the BCS this week is a bonus. Being #10 is a gift, and there are some very good teams knocking at the door between #11-15. Getting solidly into the top ten where we can take advantage of any stumbles is critical. Right now, we're too far back to benefit from the top 4 losing, IMO. Moving up to 7 or 8, and ideally leapfrogging Utah would position things well for November, as would a loss either by MSU or Wisky. At that point, it's a whole new season and we can put last weeks game down as a "teachable moment" and move on.
 
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BrutusBobcat;1796323; said:
Second, we want to see any teams tied or ahead in the Big Ten standings lose, since no matter what the BCS standings are, the Big Ten champ goes to the Rose Bowl.

I like your theories, but that statement isn't true due to BCS rules. If the Big Ten Champ ends up #1 or #2, they're in the Title Game. And prior to tOSU's loss, if tOSU and Sparty had both gone undefeated, neither would have likely gone to the Rose Bowl, since if the Rose Bowl loses the Pac-10 or Big-10 Champ to the Title Game, they'll have to take the highest rated of Boise St/TCU/Utah, if that team ends up between BCS #3 and BCS #12.

If Sparty and tOSU win out now, Sparty would either get the Title Game or the Rose Bowl, and in either case, tOSU would almost certainly not be going to the Rose Bowl. The only ways that could happen with an undefeated Sparty is if they were facing TCU/Utah/Boise State in the Title Game, or if TCU/Utah/Boise all fall out of the top-12.

But a Sparty loss definitely helps tOSU's Rose Bowl chances, since tiebreakers that don't have a head-to-head determination use the BCS Standings.
 
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It's all about the Hawkeyes.

Iowa over Wisconsin
Iowa over Sparty
Ohio State over Iowa

Buckeyes go to Pasadena. Any dreams of Glendale will need a lot more help.
 
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BB73;1796747; said:
I like your theories, but that statement isn't true due to BCS rules. If the Big Ten Champ ends up #1 or #2, they're in the Title Game. And prior to tOSU's loss, if tOSU and Sparty had both gone undefeated, neither would have likely gone to the Rose Bowl, since if the Rose Bowl loses the Pac-10 or Big-10 Champ to the Title Game, they'll have to take the highest rated of Boise St/TCU/Utah, if that team ends up between BCS #3 and BCS #12.

If Sparty and tOSU win out now, Sparty would either get the Title Game or the Rose Bowl, and in either case, tOSU would almost certainly not be going to the Rose Bowl. The only ways that could happen with an undefeated Sparty is if they were facing TCU/Utah/Boise State in the Title Game, or if TCU/Utah/Boise all fall out of the top-12.

But a Sparty loss definitely helps tOSU's Rose Bowl chances, since tiebreakers that don't have a head-to-head determination use the BCS Standings.

Right. I'm presuming that Sparty doesn't win out, and that a one-loss B10 team doesn't end up #1 or #2 unless the stars align perfectly.
 
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osucollegebuck;1797387; said:
I don't think UCLA has much of a chance, but look out for an improving USC team and i think Kiffin will sell that to his players as their bowl game.

Suddenly someone putting stock in Kiffykins? I wouldn't do that. One only needs to remember that USCs defense is abysmal, and that plays into Oregon's strength.
 
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I hate to be a fly in the ointment, but we really need to concentrate on the game on Saturday. Last time the Bucks went against Purdue they were looking ahead and I think we all remember what happened! One game at a time! If it is meant to be then all the stars will line up and we will be in The Shoe West once again! First thing first, OSU must win on Saturday!:osu::oh:
 
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I know people are down on a possible NC Chance but you only have to get to 2 and I wouldn't bet against the Bucks if they get one more shot at a NCG chance. There has only been 1 undefeated NCG Champion of recent years. That was last year. I still am not in the boat that all of these SEC teams go with just 1 loss and if LSU is the 1 loss team out of the SEC I don't know that they jump OSU after it. They could play a 2-3 loss South Car or Florida.

And I truly believe there are 3-4 games Oregon can lose. Arizona,Wash(if Locker plays well),Oreg St, and the one I think they will lose.... @USC. They have a good team and Monte and Lane will throw a strong D against Oregon.

B12 will eat themselves up now that Nebraska lost.

That leaves MSU which has been discussed and the Non BCS Qualifiers. Comps will still hurt them tremendously. TCU/UTAH loser is out. If Utah finds a way to win that game, Notre Dame is our friend unfortunately.

OSU has a chance to have one of the stronger schedules by end of year with the games upcoming. Not SEC strong per voters but mathematically per the comps, which normally go the Bucks way year in and year out.
Then comes the human voters who could sway the way of the larger fanbase or what america would love to see happen ala LSU jumping 4 spots. Boise beating down OSU. It's BSU vs the overrated Kings. The team that called out OSU in 07. It would get good ratings because people would root for OSU or for them to lose.

Overall we are talking about 8-10 games going our way. 4+ are inevitable. Okla/Mizz, Aub/LSU, ALA/Aub, LSU/ALA, TCU/UTAH... It can happen... likely no... but this thread was created in another tilt in 07 for fun not for the likelihood of the games rolling OSU's way. You have to take one week at a time and go from there. We all understand the "I am focused on Purdue" talk but this thread is not for that because that is understood as a necessity for a successful season. Please let us have our 6 grade fun of never giving up hope. GO BUCKS!
 
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BrutusBobcat;1796323; said:
Utah plays Colorado State and TCU plays Air Force. Both are at home. Obviously, we're rooting for lightning to strike in one of those games, as any loss by the non-BCS schools drops them from the running completely. Air Force has a chance, CSU probably does not.

I'm currently in graduate school at CSU. We don't really have a chance. Been a disappointing year and we were expecting a lot more.
 
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