Game Thread Game Two: #1 Ohio State 24, #2 Texas 7 (9/9/06)

[EngineerHorn]

How will your secondary perform when they're on the field for 10 extra mins a game because VY isn't out there keeping the offense on the field?

I just looked at our box scores from last year, and just as I suspected, we averaged between 30 and 31 minutes per game in TOP, or almost exactly half. Lots of really quick scoring drives will do that. But I'm nitpicking. The first part of your post was spot on. I think the defense WILL be affected by Vince's absence, but it won't be due to TOP and getting tired. The D fed off him just as much as the Offense did. LIke you said, that spark isn't there, or at the very least, we don't know who will provide it.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Statistical analysis has shown that on average a turnover creates a point swing between 6 and 7 points. I used 6 to be generous.

What statistics analysis? I would seriously disagree with it, becuase it says that every turnover either directly:

• 1. Prevents a TD by the team committing the turnover;
• 2. Prevents a FG by the team committing the turnover and immediately results in an opposition FG, or;
• 3. Results in an immediate TD for the team recieving the turnover

#1 can't be true because there's no way to know whether or not the team turning the ball over would've scored a TD had they not turned over the ball.
#2 can't be true because, like #1, there's no way to know whether or not the team turning the ball over would've kicked a FG had they not turned over the ball (could've missed the FG attempt had they even been able to try), and you can't say for certain whether or not the recovering team would've successfully kicked a FG on that possession.
#3 is definitely not true, because we all know for a fact that not every turnover directly results in a TD for the recovering team (just look at last year's game).

 

[NFBuck]

A thought for all of you stat freaks:

A British general once said the following:

"There are three types of lies:
LIES.
BLOODY LIES.
AND STATISTICS."

Using statistics to justify an argument is flawed. It removes all the intangibles from the discussion and tries to quantify what is inherently unmeasurable, IMO.

This is a little old, but in this thread that's a GPA.

 

[timBUCK2]

What statistics analysis? I would seriously disagree with it, becuase it says that every turnover either directly:

• 1. Prevents a TD by the team committing the turnover;
• 2. Prevents a FG by the team committing the turnover and immediately results in an opposition FG, or;
• 3. Results in an immediate TD for the team recieving the turnover

#1 can't be true because there's no way to know whether or not the team turning the ball over would've scored a TD had they not turned over the ball.
#2 can't be true because, like #1, there's no way to know whether or not the team turning the ball over would've kicked a FG had they not turned over the ball (could've missed the FG attempt had they even been able to try), and you can't say for certain whether or not the recovering team would've successfully kicked a FG on that possession.
#3 is definitely not true, because we all know for a fact that not every turnover directly results in a TD for the recovering team (just look at last year's game).

This just may be my new favorite post in this forum :) Zzzzziiiiiiinnnnnnnggggg!

 

[rocketman]

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! Booked a flight to Austin for the GAAAAME!!!! I don't even have a hotel or game tickets yet! Frequent flyer miles and/or having 25,000 of them is just the greatest thing ever. I'm so pumped and the game is five months away!

 

[crazybuckfan40]

I just looked at our box scores from last year, and just as I suspected, we averaged between 30 and 31 minutes per game in TOP, or almost exactly half. Lots of really quick scoring drives will do that. But I'm nitpicking. The first part of your post was spot on. I think the defense WILL be affected by Vince's absence, but it won't be due to TOP and getting tired. The D fed off him just as much as the Offense did. LIke you said, that spark isn't there, or at the very least, we don't know who will provide it.

Well you also have to figure in how many of those games were blow outs and the D didnt have to exert themselves at times when they were on the field and how long they were able to sit out at the end of games, b/c of the big leads.

With a young Qb trying to lead the offense there are going to be quite a few 3 and outs early in the year and then you will see how the D responds, when they come off the field and go right back on.

 

[xrayrandy]

xray thinks that a quarterback that has never thrown a collegiant pass will put up 38 points on OSU. That is insane.

No, I think that runningbacks who have averaged nearly 4 rushing TDs a game will have 4 in the game, and I think there will be a field goal. I only put 1 throwing TD on the QB.

 

[xrayrandy]

What statistics analysis? I would seriously disagree with it, becuase it says that every turnover either directly:

• 1. Prevents a TD by the team committing the turnover;
• 2. Prevents a FG by the team committing the turnover and immediately results in an opposition FG, or;
• 3. Results in an immediate TD for the team recieving the turnover

#1 can't be true because there's no way to know whether or not the team turning the ball over would've scored a TD had they not turned over the ball.
#2 can't be true because, like #1, there's no way to know whether or not the team turning the ball over would've kicked a FG had they not turned over the ball (could've missed the FG attempt had they even been able to try), and you can't say for certain whether or not the recovering team would've successfully kicked a FG on that possession.
#3 is definitely not true, because we all know for a fact that not every turnover directly results in a TD for the recovering team (just look at last year's game).

The scoring scenarios are correct, you just have a total lack of understanding of the scoring probabilities.

Here is a nicely done stastcal analysis you can read. It actually came up with 4 as the value, but in the NFL where the scoring probabilities are lower..
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=48&cat=1

 

[scarletngrey11]

No, I think that runningbacks who have averaged nearly 4 rushing TDs a game will have 4 in the game, and I think there will be a field goal. I only put 1 throwing TD on the QB.

Are you that ignorant?

Defenses all year long had to play focusing on Vince Young, which opens up running lanes.

How many of those rushing touchdowns came against Louisiana-Lafayette or Baylor, shitty teams like that?

You racked up 418 yards on Louisiana-Lafayette, and 5 TDs.

361 yards and 5 TDs on Rice.

347 yards and 7 TDs on Baylor.

EDIT: BTW, Texas had 38 rushes for 112 yards, and OSU had 36 rushes for 111 yards last year.

 

[BuckeyeRob]

No, I think that runningbacks who have averaged nearly 4 rushing TDs a game will have 4 in the game, and I think there will be a field goal. I only put 1 throwing TD on the QB.

Lets see against Ohio State your vaunted running backs had 0 touchdowns and 26 total rushing yards, 11 and 3

Against USC your vaunted running game produced 45 rushing yards (selven young), 12 yards by Romance Taylor and a whopping 34 by Jamal Charles.

Heck, Oklahoma was down last year and the running backs could only produce 116 (charles of which 80 came in 1 play) 45 for Selven Young


I dont care what they did against Cream Puff U. Show me what they did against the great programs.

Im going to say it right here and now. IF Ohio State can contain the Texas running game, Texas will lose this game.

 

[xrayrandy]

BTW, Texas had 38 rushes for 112 yards

And, 6 of your front 7 are gone rendering that stat irrelevant for our upcoming game.

It appears that most tOSU fans are not prepared for the eventuality that next years defense will give up 20+ points a game and maybe 24 on the road. No BCS conference team can replace 9 starters and have a 13 point per game defense.

 

[scarletngrey11]

And, 6 of your front 7 are gone rendering that stat irrelevant for our upcoming game.

It appears that most tOSU fans are not prepared for the eventuality that next years defense will give up 20+ points a game and maybe 24 on the road. No BCS conference team can replace 9 starters and have a 13 point per game defense.

It appears that most Texas fans are not prepared for the eventuality that your offense will suffer without Vince Young. Where did someone say that we still will have a 13 point per game defense? No one expects that, but theres no way in hell we give up 38 points to a team that doesnt have even a somewhat experienced QB.

Also, its 5 of our front 7 is gone.

 

[scarletngrey11]

And, 6 of your front 7 are gone rendering that stat irrelevant for our upcoming game.

And that stat isnt irrelevant, I posted it too show that just because Texas rushes for 300+ yards on Rice, Baylor, and Louisiana Lafayette doesnt mean they will rush for anything close to that on a real defense.

 

[scarletngrey11]

These are all posts that you made concerning the game last year.

Then we are even, I seriously doubt tOSU scores 20.
.

Texas 31-17

"no way does your defense have more talent personnel-wise."

Let me show you.

DT
UT has two projected 1st rounders and 1 projected 2nd rounder.
OSU has one projected 2 rounder and a couple being looked at as maybe being second day picks.

DE
UT has one projected 2-3 rounder and one 4-5 rounder
tOSU none projected as draft material in the next two drafts

MLB
UT has one projected late first day pick
tOSU has one projected late first day pick

OLB
UT has none projected yet
tOSU has a projected 1st rounder and a 2-3rd rounder.

DB
UT has 1 first rounder, 2 2-3rd rounder and one fourth and couple backups are also project 2-5th round.
tOSU has one 2-3 rounder and 2 early 2nd day picks.

UT has better talent at DT, DE, DB. MLB is a tie as far as starters go. Your only significant talent advantage based on current projections is at OLB. UT has 3 projected first rounders to your 1, and 5 to 4 for other projected first day picks.

There is a heck of a lot of talent on both defenses

.

Derrick Johnson said he could only tackle him 4 times in 10. That should be an optimistic goal for your linebackers. The question is how bad does it get the other 6 or 7 times.

The thing about our smaller quicker linebackers is that they will make tackles that yours will miss. They also don't suffer from broken tackles as much as you seem to think.

Texas only gave up 11 sacks last year and a few of those were the backup QB. Our line is much better and Vince much stronger this year. He is also more comfortable reading defenses. You will likely have to blitz in order to sack him, and he will be just as likely to either hit a receiver in the hole in the coverage or just run out of trouble. I would be surprised if your front 4 can put much pressure on him alone. In my opinion 3 sacks is highly unlikely.

As for Texas getting sacks it may depend more on which QB plays more for you. Robison is looking really good with 8 tackles in at most 30 plays, while being in the backfield in 20 of them last week. Okam and Wright need to be double teamed or they will break through on a bull rush. Crowder is also outstanding and a couple younger guys Orakpo and Brown and very fast pass rushing ends who can run past an OT. Coach Chizik has the DL play a lot more agressively than coach Robinson did last year so we should get more sacks, pressures and TFLs this year. I have read some comments about your tackles having trouble blocking Miami's DEs, if true then Texas' DEs will be in the backfield all game.

Hard to take anything you say seriously.

 

[crazybuckfan40]

So b/c you guys put up huge yardage last year against cream puffs you think that you are going to put up huge yardage against us.

Let me just try and get a fact through your head, it is not a stat so i don't know if you will comprehend but I will try. Teams no longer have to key on VY, they honestly at the beginning of the season wont have to do anything special against your qb and passing game. So they can stop the run. That is going to be beneficial to our young defense which all four of the front four next year will have started at least one game.

Second off, if you want to compare where we will be at defensively look no farther than a young D like Oklahoma last year. They were able to shut your running backs down for the most part and they still had VY to key on. Next year you won't have that so some of them running lanes arent goign to be there, the backside end will be able to scrape down the line and make the play, b/c he won't have to see if the QB will hold onto the ball.