I mention 3 QBs in this draft that I'd stay away from-- Bridgewater, Garoppollo, and Savage. Naturally, that's the three MKC mentions them being interested in. 
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- Thread starter Mike80
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I mention 3 QBs in this draft that I'd stay away from-- Bridgewater, Garoppollo, and Savage. Naturally, that's the three MKC mentions them being interested in.
You're not gonna be a happy camper.. cuz I'd be VERY surprised we don't end up with ONE of those.. and maybe two
better buy some Jack Daniels and be prepared
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There are a lot of Browns fans who want Sammie Watkins at #4 because he will provide an "instant impact". First, that argument assumes that Watkins is a going to be a star player, which is far from a sure thing given the bust rate for wide receivers drafted in the first round.
Second, it assumes that those first rounders who become stars actually have an instant impact on their teams. The numbers don't necessarily back up that assumption:
Calvin Johnson, drafted#2 overall by the Detroit Lions in 2007; definite future Hall of Famer: in his first three seasons, the Lions were 7-9; 0-16; and 2-14; for an overall record of 9-39. Instant impact factor: zero
Andre Johnson, drafted #3 overall by the Houston Texans in 2003; probable future Hall of Famer: in his first three seasons, the Texans were 5-11; 7-9; and 2-14; for an overall record of 14-34. Instant impact factor: zero
Larry Fitzgerald, drafted #3 overall by the Arizona Cardinals in 2004; probable future Hall of Famer: in his first three seasons, the Cardinals were 6-10; 5-11; and 5-11; for an overall record of 16-32. Instant impact factor: zero
Braylon Edwards, drafted #3 overall by your Cleveland Browns in 2005; played seven solid seasons in the NFL, nine overall: in his first three seasons, the Browns were 6-10; 4-12; and 10-6; for an overall record of 20-28. In year four, the Browns reverted to normalcy and went 4-12; Edwards was dumped in year five. Instant impact factor: minimal
Julio Jones, drafted #6 by the Atlanta Falcons in 2011; rising star; the Falcons were 13-3 in 2010 with All Pros at quarterback (Matt Ryan), wide receiver (Roddy White), running back (Michael Turner), and tight end (Tony Gonzalez). The Falcons traded up (with the Browns) to select Jones, who was supposed to be the missing piece needed to lead the Falcons to a Super Bowl. Well, the Falcons regressed slightly in 2011 (10-6, first round play-off loss), rebounded in 2012 (13-3, loss in NFC championship game), and collapsed during an injury-plagued 2013 (4-12). Did Jones improve the Falcons' All-Pro offense? Questionable. Instant impact factor: minimal
Michael Crabtree, drafted #10 by the San Francisco 49'ers in 2009; solid but not spectacular career so far; in his first three seasons, the 49'ers were 8-8; 6-10; and 13-3; for an overall record of 27-21. Instant impact factor: moderate
A.J. Green, drafted #4 by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2011; looks like a future Hall of Famer; in his first three seasons, the Bengals were 9-7; 10-6; and 11-5; with play-off appearances in each season. Coincidentally (or maybe not), the Bengals also drafted Andy Dalton, their "franchise" quarterback, in the 2011 draft. Nevertheless, Green has been a big reason for the Bengals' recent success. Instant impact factor: huge
So, there's a look at the seven most productive wide receivers who were drafted at the top of round one. All have been at least very good players in the league, and four or five of them will probably end up in the Hall of Fame. However, only one had an "instant impact" on his team, and five had little or no impact, which leads me to believe that drafting a wide receiver at the top of round one is a sucker's bet.
Are the Browns still suckers? We shall see in a few hours.
Second, it assumes that those first rounders who become stars actually have an instant impact on their teams. The numbers don't necessarily back up that assumption:
Calvin Johnson, drafted#2 overall by the Detroit Lions in 2007; definite future Hall of Famer: in his first three seasons, the Lions were 7-9; 0-16; and 2-14; for an overall record of 9-39. Instant impact factor: zero
Andre Johnson, drafted #3 overall by the Houston Texans in 2003; probable future Hall of Famer: in his first three seasons, the Texans were 5-11; 7-9; and 2-14; for an overall record of 14-34. Instant impact factor: zero
Larry Fitzgerald, drafted #3 overall by the Arizona Cardinals in 2004; probable future Hall of Famer: in his first three seasons, the Cardinals were 6-10; 5-11; and 5-11; for an overall record of 16-32. Instant impact factor: zero
Braylon Edwards, drafted #3 overall by your Cleveland Browns in 2005; played seven solid seasons in the NFL, nine overall: in his first three seasons, the Browns were 6-10; 4-12; and 10-6; for an overall record of 20-28. In year four, the Browns reverted to normalcy and went 4-12; Edwards was dumped in year five. Instant impact factor: minimal
Julio Jones, drafted #6 by the Atlanta Falcons in 2011; rising star; the Falcons were 13-3 in 2010 with All Pros at quarterback (Matt Ryan), wide receiver (Roddy White), running back (Michael Turner), and tight end (Tony Gonzalez). The Falcons traded up (with the Browns) to select Jones, who was supposed to be the missing piece needed to lead the Falcons to a Super Bowl. Well, the Falcons regressed slightly in 2011 (10-6, first round play-off loss), rebounded in 2012 (13-3, loss in NFC championship game), and collapsed during an injury-plagued 2013 (4-12). Did Jones improve the Falcons' All-Pro offense? Questionable. Instant impact factor: minimal
Michael Crabtree, drafted #10 by the San Francisco 49'ers in 2009; solid but not spectacular career so far; in his first three seasons, the 49'ers were 8-8; 6-10; and 13-3; for an overall record of 27-21. Instant impact factor: moderate
A.J. Green, drafted #4 by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2011; looks like a future Hall of Famer; in his first three seasons, the Bengals were 9-7; 10-6; and 11-5; with play-off appearances in each season. Coincidentally (or maybe not), the Bengals also drafted Andy Dalton, their "franchise" quarterback, in the 2011 draft. Nevertheless, Green has been a big reason for the Bengals' recent success. Instant impact factor: huge
So, there's a look at the seven most productive wide receivers who were drafted at the top of round one. All have been at least very good players in the league, and four or five of them will probably end up in the Hall of Fame. However, only one had an "instant impact" on his team, and five had little or no impact, which leads me to believe that drafting a wide receiver at the top of round one is a sucker's bet.
Are the Browns still suckers? We shall see in a few hours.
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I don't think any of the WR's would be instant impact, but they might have better luck on a team with Josh Gordon rather than a team like Jax that has nothing. The only true instant impact players I see are Clowney, Mack, and the 2 OL. OL isn't flashy, but if you could lineup Thomas, 5th best OL on the roster, Mack, Schwartz, and the #4 pick you have the best OL in the NFL for the next 2 years.
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So a player is only worthy of being drafted that high if the overall record of the team improves significantly? I know that's the ultimate goal, but it takes more than one good player to accomplish that. That's an impossible standard to hold a draft pick to. I don't consider Joe Thomas a bust just because the Browns still suck. That list you gave is full or fantastic football players. I'd shit hot knives to have most any of them on the Browns. The truth is, your list shows that when it comes to WRs drafted in the top 5, the percentages are pretty good for landing an excellent player. I would be more concerned that it was the Browns who managed to find the only real turd in that group than the fact that few of them singlehandedly turned their teams around. I'm not going to go back and look, but I'd bet that there is a strong correlation between the "impact factor" that you're looking at and how teams drafted in rounds 2-7 in the drafts where these WRs were taken.
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How else can you do it?
And future Hall of Famers like Charles Johnson, Andre Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald didn't.
Which is exactly why you don't draft a wide receiver for "instant impact". And if you need building blocks, you'd do much better with an OT or a DE or a CB than a WR.
The Browns had an All Pro WR and an All Pro TE in 2013 and went 4-12. The Browns also had an abysmal running game, and offensive line with several holes, and a quarterback situation that was decidedly below average. In that situation, you simply do not draft another WR at #4 and think that anything is going to change.
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I don't want an excellent player. I have excellent players now (Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron, Joe Haden, Joe Thomas, Alex Mack). I want an excellent team. Excellent teams have excellent quarterbacks and excellent defenses. Don't get me another excellent wide receiver who's going to lead my team to a 5-11 record.
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I disagree, mainly because we have had guys dropping balls all over the place. Even Weedledick wouldn't have looked like quite the window licker that he did if Little or Bess could catch. I agree that a team can't just draft a WR and expect instant improvement in a vacuum, but one more elite receiving option and we might be in the top 5 in the league for weapons, with Gordon, Watkins, Hawkins, Cameron, and possibly Benjamin going Az Hakim occasionally. We signed a RB in FA and we have Lewis coming back, who can also make plays in the passing game, so I think getting a set of elite weapons is a great option. Now, whether you think Watkins is one of those, well that is certainly debatable, but I look at what Alshon Jeffry has been able to do for himself and the Bears passing game, and I like it. I have always been a proponent of picking something and doing it better than anyone else...if we had a set of targets that was as good as any in the league, I would be happy with that. This isn't Matt Millen picking WRs, this is a totally different situation.
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But if none of the QBs are elite, where do you go...defense? I wouldn't be opposed to Clowney, but if we have one thing it's undersized pass-rushing OLBs in abundance. I don't want to spend a #4 on a rotation player either...I want to get a guy who is out there all the time. Much as I hate to say it, an OL might be the best bet if one is good enough.
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Buckeneye
I lead, you follow.
Your argument is flawed in the fact that the Browns and other teams as well have drafted the positions you've listed with minimal results the following season. Joe Thomas has been the best LT in the game since his rookie year - hasn't stopped this team from sucking.
Fact is, this team doesn't need building blocks. For the first time in nearly 16 years. We have multiple players that are either the best at their position or top 5 in the league. This team does need that instant impact player. To be fair, instant impact players are usually building blocks - especially if Farmer wants to build an elite receiving corps.
Fundamentally, I agree with you. I'd like to trade down if Oakland feels frisky and take Matthews. This is a deep WR class. I think an OT, then Robinson, Lattimore or Abbaraderris coupled with CB depth and another RB would be just what the doctor ordered.
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CookyPuss
Screw Blue
Pretty interesting article on the value of trading down: http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448...asic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally. The Browns could be the poster boys for drafting "irrationally." Trading up for Kellen "I'm a soldier" Winslow being exhibit 1A.
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That's fine. I'm inclined to agree that it's not an area of need for this team. I just didn't think that a list of pro bowlers and future hall-of-famers really made the point that it would be a wasted pick.
I want BPA at #4... and I'm inclined to think that the true BPA in that spot is not a QB or WR.
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tsteele316
Mr. Such and Such
the list of top 10 drafted wr's that are under 6'1'' that didn't turn out to be busts is pretty short. add to that, the fact that watkins would be a #2 wr, in a system that doesn't rely heavily on that position as a pass target.
the prevailing rumors today are that cleveland wants to trade down to around #9 for another 2nd, and draft either gilbert or dennard, then use #26 for their qb. from there, they may try to slip into the late 1st to take sua filo. if they pull off such a trade, get those 3 guys tonight and still have a 2nd and 3rd tomorrow, they have done well for themselves.
the prevailing rumors today are that cleveland wants to trade down to around #9 for another 2nd, and draft either gilbert or dennard, then use #26 for their qb. from there, they may try to slip into the late 1st to take sua filo. if they pull off such a trade, get those 3 guys tonight and still have a 2nd and 3rd tomorrow, they have done well for themselves.
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