Cleveland Browns (2012 season)

[fanaticbuckeye]

LT, Jamal Lewis, AP.

shaun alexander was a stud for 8 years. fred taylor lasted forever. MJD is approaching year 5 and isn't slowing down. matt forte is in year 4 and is going to roll for a while as well. 5 years is a myth.

I don't really have a dog in this fight, but it seemed interesting to verify...

MJD -

Three years as a starter and three more years with significant carries...
In his career has averaged 247 carries per year at 4.6/carry & 10 TD/year

MJD breaks beats the five year myth

Forte -
4 seasons (12 in 2012)
Averaged 254 carries / 4.1/carry & 5 TD per year
Add another 50+ receptions per year; he is over 300 touches per year

Very well could beat the myth, but hasn't yet.

Shaun Alexander -

5 years over 1,000 yards, three final years he played in 10, 13, and 4 games respectively

5 great years, 2 average years and 2 bad years. Technically broke the myth with the two average years

Fred Taylor -

13 total years with 7 over 1,000. Very nice and long career.

Should be noted that he only played 16 games twice and 15 games twice. He averaged just under 12 games per year


Adrian Peterson (hopes of who Trich will emulate) -


5 years in the league, averaged 281 attempts, 4.82/carry & 13 TD. Over 1000 yards each year except 2011, still had 970 in 12 games.


Missed 4 games last year, only 1 in 2010 and no games missed in '08 & '09.


Any success moving forward breaks the 5 year myth.


So the question is, are these the only RB's to beat the myth? If so, I would make the argument that it is not a myth based on the numbers, and these guys are the outliers. My guess is they are probably not the only ones to do it (Frank Gore comes to mind, maybe Michael Turner is close, of course LT). But the norm for RB's probably trends to 5 years or lower.


But if you are going to get 5 good to great years out of a back, isn't it better to get a potentially elite back for 5, than to try to piece and part RB's together every year? You may hit a HR one year (Hillis) but is that sustainable?

 

[BigWoof31]

To those of you who don't hate the Weeden pick... I present you this question... (i stole this from a comment section from WFNY)...Would you rather have a 28 year old rookie QB, who as mentioned above had the best WR to throw to, played in a league with 0 defense, and had a good oline.... verses Matt Flynn, who is 2 years younger, and has NFL experience....

really our only hope at this point is for Goodell to step in a force a sale of the team to an owner who isn't more concerned about his [Mark May]ty premier league team.

If you were looking to eventually replace McCoy, you could have drafted Kirk Cousins too. He's someone with MidWestern Roots, good leadership ability and could have been gotten cheaply in the 3rd round (or late 2nd).

Your earlier picks could have been used to put talent around him too.

 

[Buckeye86]

But if you are going to get 5 good to great years out of a back, isn't it better to get a potentially elite back for 5, than to try to piece and part RB's together every year? You may hit a HR one year (Hillis) but is that sustainable?

How many other backs were drafted in the first round during the same time frame as the "5 good years" guys you listed? My guess is that the chances of getting five good years out of a first round RB is probably around 10%... 25% at the absolute most.

So if you pull a guy like Hillis with a break-out year off of free agency or in the late rounds once every three to four years you can call it even in my opinion. Hell, Jamal Lewis had a few decent 1,000+ years with the Browns at the end of his career.

 

[AuTX Buckeye]

How many other backs were drafted in the first round during the same time frame as the "5 good years" guys you listed? My guess is that the chances of getting five good years out of a first round RB is probably around 10%... 25% at the absolute most.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

 

[wadc45]

Cleveland Browns starting QBs this decade:

Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Jake Delhomme, Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Ken Dorsey, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, Trent Dilfer, Jeff Garcia, Kelly Holcomb, Luke McCown, Tim Couch, Doug Pederson, Spergon Wynn.

The odds that Weeden is better than anyone on this list have to be decent, right?

WR has to be the next pick, correct? Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffrey and Reuben Randle seem to be the best available. One of them will likely be gone when the Rams pick at #33.

 

[Brutus1]

if i remember, Old Farve about lead them to the superbowl.... one year atleast

Yea, they were close, but old man river pulled his same old trick with some key picks in the loss to the Saints. They had a great year but Peterson did have over 1800 total yards that year. Total team effort.

 

[buckiprof]

Cleveland Browns starting QBs this decade:

Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Jake Delhomme, Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Ken Dorsey, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, Trent Dilfer, Jeff Garcia, Kelly Holcomb, Luke McCown, Tim Couch, Doug Pederson, Spergon Wynn.

The odds that Weeden is better than anyone on this list have to be decent, right?

WR has to be the next pick, correct? Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffrey and Reuben Randle seem to be the best available. One of them will likely be gone when the Rams pick at #33.

Answer to first question....yep.

Out of the 3 WR's listed, I like Randle the best and Jeffrey the least.

 

[AuTX Buckeye]

Cleveland Browns starting QBs this decade:

Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Jake Delhomme, Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Ken Dorsey, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, Trent Dilfer, Jeff Garcia, Kelly Holcomb, Luke McCown, Tim Couch, Doug Pederson, Spergon Wynn.

The odds that Weeden is better than anyone on this list have to be decent, right?

WR has to be the next pick, correct? Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffrey and Reuben Randle seem to be the best available. One of them will likely be gone when the Rams pick at #33.

the math says yes, however this is Cleveland so there is no chance in hell.

Yea WR makes the most sense ... but again this is Cleveland, at this point I'm expecting a Kicker, Punter or Long Snapper

 

[OH10]

After a night of sleep and some time for reflection, I have decided that I still fucking hate the Weeden pick. And now we find out that it was pretty much Randy Lerner's call.

I have supported this team for 31 fucking years, including the 3 years they didn't exist. I'm done. They aren't worthy of my money or time. Fuck them. I quit.

 

[Brutus1]

Exactly, and by the time they address the rest of the problems on the team (which they won't because they clearly fucking suck at drafting) Richardson will be a broken down has-been.

2011 Giants leading rusher: 659 yards
2011 Patriots leading rusher: 667 yards

2010 Packers leading rusher: 578 yards
2010 Steelers leading rusher: 1273 yards

2009 Saints leading rusher: 603 yards
2009 Colts leading rusher: 828 yards

2008 Steelers leading rusher: 791
2008 Cardinals leading rusher: 514

2007 Giants leading rusher: 1009
2007 Patriots leading rusher: 835

The feature back is dead in the NFL.

It would be interesting to take it further and see where each Super Bowl team's leading rusher was drafted... but I am out of energy to do that right now. The Steelers drafted Mendenhall late in the first round. He was their leading rusher in 2010, so that is one example of it working out.

Mendenhall is now already on the way out and the Steelers didn't exactly have Browns talent surrounding him in 2010.

By the looks of your arguement, it seems the Browns should have drafted a qb at #3 or 4. Those teams all happen to have HoF qb's. You must be fine with the Weedon pick ?

I'm looking at this as someone that has no rooting interest in the Browns (Raiders fan-ugh.) This team needed playmakers everywhere. Whoever is behind center will have an easier time with Richardson back there. Sure, Kalil is a stud, but they can get a right tackle in the 2nd and a wr in the 3rd, or vice versa. They can make up for any first round questions by drafting smart in the next 3 rounds. That's the big question.

 

[ArmyVet83]

If you were looking to eventually replace McCoy, you could have drafted Kirk Cousins too. He's someone with MidWestern Roots, good leadership ability and could have been gotten cheaply in the 3rd round (or late 2nd).

Your earlier picks could have been used to put talent around him too.

You have to have a very good QB (McCoy, Weeden, Cousins, etc. are not) in this league to win consistently BUT in this draft anything beyond Luck and RGIII is grasping at serviceable. I really do not understand what the staff is thinking.

While QB is a need, it's not an immediate need. IMO, this team is still two great drafts and a couple of key FAs from winning consistently in this league.

Well this draft started off good. I'm OK with the Richardson trade. But the pick at 22 IS a mistake. If you draft a RB, build the line in front of them. DiCastro SHOULD have the pick at 22 and at 37, I would go WR (Stephen Hill or Jeffery) or OL (Jonathan Martin, Cordy Glenn, or Bobbie Massie Whoever falls). If the WR(s) aren't there, you pick up your WR in the 3rd round (McNutt, Toon, or whoever drops from the 2nd). Always go with the best player available at a position of need or the BPA.

 

[exhawg]

Cleveland Browns starting QBs this decade:

Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Jake Delhomme, Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Ken Dorsey, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, Trent Dilfer, Jeff Garcia, Kelly Holcomb, Luke McCown, Tim Couch, Doug Pederson, Spergon Wynn.

The odds that Weeden is better than anyone on this list have to be decent, right?

WR has to be the next pick, correct? Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffrey and Reuben Randle seem to be the best available. One of them will likely be gone when the Rams pick at #33.

Screw that give me OL with the next 2 picks. I'll deal with Little and MM if they can put together a line that can open holes for Richardson and give Weeden 3-4 seconds to to find a receiver. If Posey is there in the 4th take him.

 

[fanaticbuckeye]

2000
#5 ? Jamal Lewis ? (10 seasons, 7 1,000 including 3 after his fifth year)
#7 ? Thomas Jones ? (12 seasons, 5 over 1,000, 2 other 'good' years)
#11 ? Ron Dayne ? (8 years total, 773 yards highest output)
#19 ? Shaun Alexander
#31 ? Trung Canidate - ( 4 years, 1,095 total yards)


2001
#5 ? LaDainian Tomlinson
#23 ? Deuce McAllister ? (9 years, 4 1,000 yd seasons)
#27 ? Michael Bennett - ( 11 seasons, 1 1,000 yd season, only 107 games total)


2002
#16 ? William Green (stud RB chosen by browns, 2,109 yds in four seasons)
#18 ? T.J. Duckett ? (7 years, 779 highest output)


2003
#23 ? Willis McGahee ? (over 1,000 yds 4 times including 2011, one broke knee)
#27 ? Larry Johnson ? (2 1,000 yd seasons, over 800 only one time)


2004
#24 ? Steven Jackson ? (7 times over 1,000 yards)
#26 ? Chris Perry ? We all know why he sucks
#30 ? Kevin Jones ? (1,000 rookie campaign, never broke 700 again)


2005
#2 ? Ronnie Brown (1,000 yds once, played 16 games three times)
#4 ? Cedric Benson ? (last three years over 1,000 yds ? 15 or more games three times)
#5 ? Cadillac Williams ? (1,000 yd rookie campaign, only broke 800 yds one time since)


2006
#2 ? Reggie Bush - No
#21 ? Laurence Maroney - No
#27 ? DeAngelo Williams ? (1,000 yds twice ? 16 games played three times)
#30 ? Joseph Addai (1,000 yds twice ? 15 or more games twice)


2007
#7 ? Adrian Peterson
#12 ? Marshawn Lynch ( 3 seasons over 1,000 yds ? only played 15 games or more twice)

 

[Buckeye86]

By the looks of your arguement, it seems the Browns should have drafted a qb at #3 or 4. Those teams all happen to have HoF qb's. You must be fine with the Weedon pick ?

Of course, that's the only logical alternative. Someone trades up and takes Richardson, which the Browns were so fucking afraid of, then draft Kalil. If you don't want two elite tackles because heaven forbid one would have to move to the other side of the line, then draft Claiborne to help shut down the HOF QBs that have gone to the last five super bowls leading prolific passing offenses.

This was not the year for the Browns to draft a QB although that is clearly an important factor in the equation. Particularly for sustained success. How many Super Bowls have the "successful" RBs played in in the last decade? Build the pieces this year, tank like we all know they are going to and draft a QB top 3 next year.

 

[AKAK]

Cleveland Browns starting QBs this decade:

Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Jake Delhomme, Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Ken Dorsey, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye, Trent Dilfer, Jeff Garcia, Kelly Holcomb, Luke McCown, Tim Couch, Doug Pederson, Spergon Wynn.

The odds that Weeden is better than anyone on this list have to be decent, right?

WR has to be the next pick, correct? Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffrey and Reuben Randle seem to be the best available. One of them will likely be gone when the Rams pick at #33.

First of all, Fuck you Wade and your logic.

Now, having said that. Weeden (age thing aside) is probably the most like Couch (Prolific System College guy, pretty good arm, going into a WCO). And forgive me if I'm wrong, but, my guess is he won more games than anyone on that list. Also got to the playoffs when he had an effective RB (William Green - cueing the "how many good years did he have crowd" but there are other issues there too). Couch also did not have Joe Thomas. And no knock on KJ and Northcutt, but, not the most physically imposing crew, and didn't do a heck of a lot after they left Cleveland.

So, having said that, I think the next pick is RT. If we're gonna go this way Richardson and Weeden need all the help they can get.

*** Disclaimer, I've backed away from my Axe swining thing earlier in the thread. And trying to figure this out. In a way, when I heard on the radio that the plan was to trade Colt and move forward this way, I kind of felt better somehow. Last thing I wanted was to get the kid in and have him sit or some shit. It's still confusing but, get the fucking RT and see what these 2 guys can do.