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Game Thread CFP Semifinal: Ohio State vs. Clemson, Sat 12/31 @ 7p ET, ESPN

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MililaniBuckeye said:
You can't discount an offensive TD just because it was a short drive.
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I can if the purpose of the analysis is to measure the overall effectiveness of the offense. That purpose wasn't just to crunch numbers.

Maybe we could use a different perspective where we include defensive effectiveness setting things up for the offense. In that case, maybe we could project a scenario where our ball hawking D sets up a similar drive against TO prone clemson. It's possible but it still requires a large assumption. The D seemed to go through a bit of a ball hawking drought this season, so who knows. Much more commonly, an effective D will stop drives that end in a punt that gives the O the ball near midfield, after which they need two or three first downs just to get in FG range.

But the analysis, which is useful (not saying otherwise), was purely OSU's O against opponents' D.
So 13 points should've been scored by the offense instead of the ten it did score, which is right at Michigan's defensive PPG
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I think it's a few points less, but certainly not the 23 from the spreadsheet. They did not have a good day or an average day.
 
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Zem said:
I think 3 offensive points (9 if counting missed fg's) versus tsun is more realistic. Two offensive td's were in overtime and the other one was on a 6-yard drive or something like that. So perhaps -9.5 or -3.5. Similar for the Wisconsin game, but the OT td there compensates for a long drive that ended with an interception in the end zone that happened due to a badger-friendly thunderstorm that lasted just long enough for JT to attempt that pass.
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The averages discount everything.

I simply backed out non offensive touch downs for both teams through all games.
 
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Last (4) years the Buckeyes have lost by:

10 to Sparty ~ behind early, took the lead, then lost

5 to Clemson ~ behind early, took the lead, then lost

14 to Va Tech ~ JT was still getting his feet wet after a sledgehammer game against Navy.

3 to Sparty ~ Sparty dominated w/back-up qb's ~ 294/132 total yardage advantage and Ohio State had ***5*** first downs!

3 to the pedsters ~ Buckeye's dominated!

Signifying nothing! Except if they lost a game in the "regular" season, they did not lose in the post season er bowl game ie the last (3) years.

Again, signifying nothing! Except it's been a fairly decent five years! :urban2::urban2::urban2::urban2::urban2:
 
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Buckeneye said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but after losing to a team from the State of South Carolina, have the Bucks not gone on to win a championship the following year every time?
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I don't know what you're implying here. We did not lose to Clemson last year. It was way back in 2014 (after the 2013 season).

And I want tOSU to win the NC THIS YEAR. Then I'll think about next year. Taking a wild guess, but I think I will want to win the NC next year too.

Beat Clemson.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
So where do you draw the line? Discount all TD drives of 20 yards or less? 30 yards or less?
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Don't have to draw a line because that would be a waste of time; Bucks did not start a drive from scUM's 20 or 30. That little drive clearly skews that particular analysis. The O had a not-good/average day (until OT) and it was an unrelenting D that enabled OT.
 
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shiloh said:
Last (4) years the Buckeyes have lost by:

10 to Sparty ~ behind early, took the lead, then lost

5 to Clemson ~ behind early, took the lead, then lost

14 to Va Tech ~ JT was still getting his feet wet after a sledgehammer game against Navy.

3 to Sparty ~ Sparty dominated w/back-up qb's ~ 294/132 total yardage advantage and Ohio State had ***5*** first downs!

3 to the pedsters ~ Buckeye's dominated!
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Take it further ... since Urban Meyer arrived, the Buckeyes have been tied or lead in the 4th Q of every single game they've played, and if trailing, had possession of the ball with the opportunity to tie or retake the lead in the 4th Q of every ball game.

Since losing to Virginia Tech on September 6 2014 (27 months ago), Ohio State has lost a grand total of two games in which they trailed on the scoreboard for 4 minutes and 27 seconds combined.
 
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