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Game Thread CFP Semifinal: Ohio State vs. Clemson, Sat 12/31 @ 7p ET, ESPN

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Stealing a page from @DaddyBigBucks playbook.

OSU and Clemson defense vs Opponents points per game (i.e. how does the opponents offense do vs OSU/Clemson defense in relation to their per game average). I have removed all non defensive points allowed for both teams.

Sorted by opponents offensive rank

upload_2016-12-10_23-26-1.png



OSU faced four offenses in the top 25. They held them to an average of 24.6 points below their average. These teams averaged 16 ppg vs OSU.

Clemson faced four offenses in the top 33. They held them to an average of 2.4 points below their average. These teams averaged 37 ppg vs Clemson.

It's hard not to be encouraged by this.
 
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and for OSU/Clemson offense vs opponent defensive ppg (D_PPG)

upload_2016-12-11_0-11-20.png

Clemson has faced one (1) top 10 defense and scored 2 points more than the average opponent

OSU has faced two (2) top 5 defenses and scored an average of 12.5 points more than the average opponent

Clemson has faced more top 50% defenses (64th or better) than OSU has, 10 to 6

Clemson has averaged 12.5 ppg higher than the average opponent vs top 64, OSU has averaged only 9.5 ppg higher than average.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Stealing a page from @DaddyBigBucks playbook.

OSU and Clemson defense vs Opponents points per game (i.e. how does the opponents offense do vs OSU/Clemson defense in relation to their per game average). I have removed all non defensive points allowed for both teams.

Sorted by opponents offensive rank

View attachment 14617



OSU faced four offenses in the top 25. They held them to an average of 24.6 points below their average. These teams averaged 16 ppg vs OSU.

Clemson faced four offenses in the top 33. They held them to an average of 2.4 points below their average. These teams averaged 37 ppg vs Clemson.

It's hard not to be encouraged by this.
Click to expand...
Jaxbuck said:
and for OSU/Clemson offense vs opponent defensive ppg (D_PPG)

View attachment 14618

Clemson has faced one (1) top 10 defense and scored 2 points more than the average opponent

OSU has faced two (2) top 5 defenses and scored an average of 12.5 points more than the average opponent

Clemson has faced more top 50% defenses (64th or better) than OSU has, 10 to 6

Clemson has averaged 12.5 ppg higher than the average opponent vs top 64, OSU has averaged only 9.5 ppg higher than average.
Click to expand...

So if we beat them by 9, they will lose by 24?
 
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HorseshoeFetish said:
So if we beat them by 9, they will lose by 24?
Click to expand...

gmen6981 said:
Math is hard.
Click to expand...

I did those relatively late last night, if there are errors let me know and I'll fix them but it should be pretty straightforward.

The % is differential percentage, or the percentage of the opponents average the OSU/Clemson difference represents.

Example; Oklahoma averaged 44.7 ppg. OSU held them 27.7 points below that average. That 27.7 point delta is 61.97% of their average (below in this case).
It is most useful to look at the % in comparison to the other team. When you do that you see OSU clearly has affected opponents more than Clemson has on both sides of the ball.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
I did those relatively late last night, if there are errors let me know and I'll fix them but it should be pretty straightforward.

The % is differential percentage, or the percentage of the opponents average the OSU/Clemson difference represents.

Example; Oklahoma averaged 44.7 ppg. OSU held them 27.7 points below that average. That 27.7 point delta is 61.97% of their average (below in this case).
It is most useful to look at the % in comparison to the other team. When you do that you see OSU clearly has affected opponents more than Clemson has on both sides of the ball.
Click to expand...
54986163.jpg
 
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:lol:

it's all good. I didn't think anyone was really breaking balls, just wanted to make sure I was being clear on what I am seeing from those tables.

Clemson has faced 4 offenses similar to what OSU can do (L'ville, Pitt, VT, FSU) and each team has pretty much hit their season average in points.

They have faced 1 defense like they will see vs OSU in Auburn and were held to just about what that team averages allowing.

All the special team metrics favor OSU (although neither team is exceptional in this area) and Clemson is TO prone whereas OSU is good at creating TO's.

Anything can happen in a football game but there are reasons to be confident for OSU fans.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
and for OSU/Clemson offense vs opponent defensive ppg (D_PPG)

View attachment 14618

OSU has faced two (2) top 5 defenses and scored an average of 12.5 points more than the average opponent
Click to expand...
I think 3 offensive points (9 if counting missed fg's) versus tsun is more realistic. Two offensive td's were in overtime and the other one was on a 6-yard drive or something like that. So perhaps -9.5 or -3.5. Similar for the Wisconsin game, but the OT td there compensates for a long drive that ended with an interception in the end zone that happened due to a badger-friendly thunderstorm that lasted just long enough for JT to attempt that pass.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Anything can happen in a football game but there are reasons to be confident for OSU fans.
Click to expand...

Indeed, as the Buckeyes lost to the pedsters on the road after ped state had a bye wk, whereas Clemson lost to Pitt at home after Pitt had a really bad game against the U. Pitt had 2 turnovers against Miami. Clemson had 3 turnovers against Pitt, but Clemson had a big advantage in total yardage.

Ohio State had a big advantage in total yardage against ped and technically didn't have any turnovers, but a blocked punt which led to a field goal and blocked field goal which led to a gift td. Shit happens!

Last year as the 1 seed Clemson basically had a home game in Miami against Oklahoma. This year. Clemson has to travel cross country to Glendale, AZ.

When the Buckeyes played Clemson (3) years ago they were coming off a disappointing tough loss to Sparty. This year they are coming off a high w/a win against TTUN, much like last year against the Irish in AZ. Again, Clemson basically had a home game in the Orange Bowl three years ago..

>

Interesting the Buckeyes have come full circle w/Braxton having his initial shoulder injury against Clemson in Jan 2014 eventually leading to JT becoming the 2014 starter. JT's devastating leg injury against TTUN. And the rest, as they say, is history!

The opening of The Chase Is Complete:



You have Braxton going down ... obviously it's devasting!

JT: Being everybody like, Man the season's over.

When I heard the news my wife said it's gonna be a bad year!

JT: I was kinda sitting back and just like ... We'll see.

Yes Virginia, JT, the O line, Cardale, Urban saved the season. Thank you Buckeyes!

>

Re: the upcoming Clemson game, we'll see ...

>
btw fellow Buckeye fans, if you're feeling down just like watch The Chase Is Complete as it will make you smile.:urban2:
 
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Zem said:
I think 3 offensive points (9 if counting missed fg's) versus tsun is more realistic. Two offensive td's were in overtime and the other one was on a 6-yard drive or something like that. So perhaps -9.5 or -3.5. Similar for the Wisconsin game, but the OT td there compensates for a long drive that ended with an interception in the end zone that happened due to a badger-friendly thunderstorm that lasted just long enough for JT to attempt that pass.
Click to expand...
You can't discount an offensive TD just because it was a short drive. The 37-yard FG attempt is close enough to 40 yards to where I wouldn't count that as a gimme, but the yank job on the 21-yard attempt can be counted as something that definitely should've been made. So 13 points should've been scored by the offense instead of the ten it did score, which is right at Michigan's defensive PPG.
 
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Buckeneye said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but after losing to a team from the State of South Carolina, have the Bucks not gone on to win a championship the following year every time?
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Nope. Lost to Clemson 17-15 in the '78 Gator Bowl...no national title in '79. Lost to South Carolina 24-7 in the '01 Outback Bowl and then went 7-5 in '01.
 
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