BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

[RB07OSU]

- Does Oklahoma really deserve to be there for their lackluster performance against Colorado?
- Does LSU really deserve to be there for their lackluster performance against Kentucky?
- Does Oregon really deserve to be there for their lackluster performance against Cal?
- Does West Virginia really deserve to be there for their lackluster performance against South Florida?
- Does Missouri really deserve to be there for their lackluster performance against Oklahoma?
- Does Kansas really deserve to be there for the simple fact that they are Kansas?

This negativity just doesn't cut it. I'll agree a win over Michigan and a trip to the Rose Bowl will be fantastic for this season, but to say we still don't deserve a shot at the National Title anymore than the teams ahead of us is just lame.

All good points which I have thought about recently as well and tried to avoid in my own pessimism. If Kansas wins out or Missouri wins out, I would say that they deserve it more. That would be very convincing for Kansas and Missouri's loss was a tough fought battle to a very good OU team, then proved themselves by redeeming their loss against OU and beating a very good Kansas team should they do that. OU's loss though is actually much worse than ours and so is WVU's (I think Cincy beats them again anywho). Oregon and Cal are different stories as well because of who they have beaten, rather than who they have lost to. Oregon beat a very good USC team in a hard fought win, as well as trounced our rivals up north. They also beat ASU up pretty decent (who is a bit overrated imo but still). If they win out, I believe they deserve to be in it. LSU is also different because Kentucky was comparable to Illinois imo but LSU has beat Florida, killed Va. Tech, beat South Carolina convincingly, and beat good Auburn and Alabama teams. They also have to beat Arkansas and whoever they have in their title game. If they win out, they deserve it more than anybody. Oregon and LSU have just been tested by many good teams and though they slipped up to lesser teams, they have just simply had more competition. Is it our fault we haven't played anyone? No and that's why college football really does need a playoff system and not a computer to decide. It's hard to say if we deserve it or not, so we are forced to guess based on outcomes of games, outcomes that could change on any given day. However, having really researched this more, OSU has a legit shot at the title game though it's a longshot. Things will have to happen just right in the Big 12 for us to get in and LSU will have to lose. Someone out of OU, Mizzou, and Kansas will have to get upset before their matchups or someone will remain with only one loss and ahead of us. Beyond all that, we have to win this Saturday. So will it happen? Highly doubt it. Do we deserve it? There is only one way to tell...with a playoff system. So my prediction: LSU looses in the SEC championship, Kansas looses to Missouri, Missouri looses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma wins out, ASU looses to USC, and Oregon wins out as well. We beat scUM and go win the Rose Bowl, then we watch Oklahoma and Oregon play for the NC later on... oh and P.S. That won't really happen because of how crazy this year has been. However, college football does like it has attempted to balance itself out and likely will completely when Kansas and Mizzouri lose, following USF, BC, etc.

 

[buckeyemania11]

A Texas Tech Win This Weekend Over Oklahoma Would Be HUGE For Ohio States Chances

seeing that they beat Michigan of course

 

[blazedett]

First off, with the anti big 10 bias, regardless of how the UM game goes, i don't see Ohio State jumping anyone...(possibly west virginia with some shaky wins but very unlikely )If we can beat michigan,....We have Oklahoma Misouri, and Kansas all ahead of us, ...Misouri and Kansas play each other and the winner plays Oklahoma..That leaves us at number 5.....So basically, the only way we'd get into the NC game is if 3 of the 4 teams left ahead of us (Oklahoma? LSU, Oregon, And West Virginia) lost. The winner of the big 12 championship game will be a 1 loss team whos ahead of us no matter what...So Oregon, LSU, and West Virginia, would all have to lose again for us to go to the NC game..Not very likely, but a small possibility given the crazy season and they all have tough games left....

The other scenario i like is All of LSU, Oklahoma, and Oregon win the rest of their games,. and are 1, 2, and 3. We are left at 4 or 5 behind west virginia. We are in the rose bowl....either playing oregon or a replacement team if oregon is selected for the NC game. I personally believe that Oregon and LSU will get the nod over oklahoma even after oklahoma wins the Big 12 championship game. This would give the Rose Bowl first choice at a team to replace Oregon. My question to anyone reading is, Would the Rose Bowl Committee chose a 1 loss Arizona State team/2 Loss USC team (depending on who wins when they play) Over the number 3 Oklahoma team who was controversially left out of the NC game, to keep the big 10 vs pac 10 matchup? I personally think Ohio State vs. Oklahoma could be a huge rose bowl and be a basiaclly second tier championship game in many peoples eyes, being that they both are matching up top 1 loss teams. It would give us the chance to prove ourselves to the country. I would hope that the Rose Bowl Committee would want to put on the biggest matchup possible, not just a big 10 pac 10 match up.

If that scenario happened, we would have 1-LSU vs 2-Oregon, 3-Oklahoma vs 5-Ohio State in the two marquee bowls...If We went in, played a great game, and destroyed oklahoma, we would finish a solid number 2 and even get a decent amount of first place votes and be in the National Title discussion.

 

[Carmen Ohio]

with the precedent of weirdness created this season, I feel some sort of odd peace about this outside chance of things falling into place. I'm not counting on it, I'm not betting on it, but it's more plausible than any of us can possibly imagine. Truly, It Ain't Over.

That's the point. In a way, this has been the best college football season ever.

 

[msj2487]

The winner of the big 12 championship game will be a 1 loss team whos ahead of us no matter what...

No offense but you did read the earlier posts in this thread, right? This statement of yours is not necessarily true, yes it may be a stretch, but all 3 Big 12 teams currently ahead of us could eliminate each other and be 2 loss teams by the end of the Big 12 Championship. If Kansas, Mizzou, or Oklahoma slip up before the championship (Kansas vs. Missouri, Missouri vs. Kansas State, or Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech/Okie State) then it would be a 2 loss team vs. a 1 loss team and we most certainly would jump a 1 loss Kansas or 2 loss Missouri/Oklahoma.

Ideally, I think we'd want something like this:

- Missouri wins out beating Kansas (this eliminates Kansas from contention - the voters hate them more than us, and just slightly less than Hawaii)
- Kansas loses to Missouri thus eliminating them
- Oklahoma loses to either Texas Tech or Okie State, both are tough games, 1 is a rivalry and the other is in Lubbock, TX
- So then the 2 loss Oklahoma team goes on to beat Mizzou for the second time in the year and makes them a 2 loss team, thus eliminating them.

Again all a stretch, but all still a possibility.

 

[matcar]

No offense but you did read the earlier posts in this thread, right? This statement of yours is not necessarily true, yes it may be a stretch, but all 3 Big 12 teams currently ahead of us could eliminate each other and be 2 loss teams by the end of the Big 12 Championship. If Kansas, Mizzou, or Oklahoma slip up before the championship (Kansas vs. Missouri, Missouri vs. Kansas State, or Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech/Okie State) then it would be a 2 loss team vs. a 1 loss team and we most certainly would jump a 1 loss Kansas or 2 loss Missouri/Oklahoma.

Ideally, I think we'd want something like this:

- Missouri wins out beating Kansas (this eliminates Kansas from contention - the voters hate them more than us, and just slightly less than Hawaii)
- Kansas loses to Missouri thus eliminating them
- Oklahoma loses to either Texas Tech or Okie State, both are tough games, 1 is a rivalry and the other is in Lubbock, TX
- So then the 2 loss Oklahoma team goes on to beat Mizzou for the second time in the year and makes them a 2 loss team, thus eliminating them.

Again all a stretch, but all still a possibility.

I guess there are several strange scenarios that could vault us back into the title hunt, but I have to admit, I don't care to look at it. I'd much rather focus on TSUN and get that win and plan on a trip to Pasadena...which frankly, I'd be thrilled to go visit in January.

 

[CausticMick]

RALLYING POINT: scUM WEEK

Brutus: Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Hawaiians beat Oklahoma? Hell no!
Animal: Hawaiians? Doesn't he mean Bois..
Tress: Forget it, he's rolling.
Brutus: And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough...
[thinks hard]
Brutus: the tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go!
[runs out, alone; then returns]
Brutus: What the flip happened to THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Brutus, we might get beat." Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Hart, he's a dead man! Crable, dead! Mallett...
Animal: Dead! Brutus is right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastage. Now we could do it with conventional weapons that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.
Brutus: We're just the guys to do it.
Beanie: Let's do it.
Brutus: LET'S DO IT!

 

[CapnStubby]

I love the MAP!

Please give Toledo back to Muckigan, I mean force Muckigan to take Toledo back. It's infested with Wooligans.

 

[blazedett]

No offense but you did read the earlier posts in this thread, right? This statement of yours is not necessarily true, yes it may be a stretch, but all 3 Big 12 teams currently ahead of us could eliminate each other and be 2 loss teams by the end of the Big 12 Championship. If Kansas, Mizzou, or Oklahoma slip up before the championship (Kansas vs. Missouri, Missouri vs. Kansas State, or Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech/Okie State) then it would be a 2 loss team vs. a 1 loss team and we most certainly would jump a 1 loss Kansas or 2 loss Missouri/Oklahoma.

Ideally, I think we'd want something like this:

- Missouri wins out beating Kansas (this eliminates Kansas from contention - the voters hate them more than us, and just slightly less than Hawaii)
- Kansas loses to Missouri thus eliminating them


- Oklahoma loses to either Texas Tech or Okie State, both are tough games, 1 is a rivalry and the other is in Lubbock, TX
- So then the 2 loss Oklahoma team goes on to beat Mizzou for the second time in the year and makes them a 2 loss team, thus eliminating them.


Again all a stretch, but all still a possibility.

Your Right i agree its definitly possible for the big 12 champ to lose before the game...Ok to TxTech or Ok State, Misouri to K State, or Kansas to Iowa State, and go on to wini the b12 champ game...that would basically eliminate all b12 teams from the picture....So we would need 3 of the 4 teams to lose 1 more (big 12 champ, Oregon, West Virginia, and LSU..) I think the only way Oregon gets left out is if Kansas wins out, they'd most likely put Kansas vs. LSU...and we'd play oregon...my question is, If LSU, Oklahoma, and Oregon all win out, I assume we'd play a 1 loss Arizona State team over anyone, but if AZ State Loses to USC, do you think we would play USC in the Rose Bowl? The Rose Bowl would have first pick at who they want to replace Oregon, so do you think they would want the huge matchup of Ohio State vs. 3 Oklahoma who got left out of the big game? Or do you think they would do anything to put a second BCS Pac 10 team and have the big 10 pac 10 matchup?

I would be very happy with the opportunity to play a 1 loss Oregon or a 1 loss Oklahoma tema in the Rose bowl, we'd get to prove ourself just as much as the teams in the N Champ. game in my opinion, they would be 2 bowl games on par with each other.

 

[bucksfan415]

I dont really see Oregon Or West Virginia losing

West Virgina can definitely lose they have 3 very tough teams to play.
1. They have U Conn 8-2 (4-1) who has a great quarterback T. Lorenzen who has 1,905 yards passing and a Qb rating of 126.51
2. Pitt 4-5 (2-2) who even though has a bad record plays some really good games. They also have a star running back L. McCoy who has 1,065 rushing.
3. Cincinnati 8-2 (3-2) is a great football team here are some compared stats. West Virginia40.4Cincinnati36.6Average Points per game.
West Virginia 288.8
Cincinnati 165.3
Average Rushing yards
Cincinnati 263.2
West Virginia 173.9
Average Passing yards

But we might need some luck with Oregon losing.

 

[CausticMick]

I love the MAP!

Please give Toledo back to Muckigan, I mean force Muckigan to take Toledo back. It's infested with Wooligans.

 

[methomps]

Arizona State: They are behind us, and the only scenerio in which they can pass us is us losing. So we are good here.

I wouldn't be so sure of that if I were you.

 

[msj2487]

my question is, If LSU, Oklahoma, and Oregon all win out, I assume we'd play a 1 loss Arizona State team over anyone, but if AZ State Loses to USC, do you think we would play USC in the Rose Bowl? The Rose Bowl would have first pick at who they want to replace Oregon, so do you think they would want the huge matchup of Ohio State vs. 3 Oklahoma who got left out of the big game? Or do you think they would do anything to put a second BCS Pac 10 team and have the big 10 pac 10 matchup?

This is a great point and I meant to highlight this in my other post referring to your original post, but that would be very interesting to see how that played out. In all honesty I think they would take the OSU vs. USC match over the Oklahoma matchup to keep with the Big Ten vs. Pac 10 battles.

Who knows though, we'll just have to wait and see, but thats what makes this wait worthwhile and fun! Picking at certain games and seeing what our chances are of getting another shot at the NC game or who our opponent could be in the Rose Bowl, or (gulp) some other bowl...

Which brings me to offering another perspective on the situation, which is extremely hypothetical, and please trust me in this its only hypothetical at best, but if the unthinkable were to happen this weekend then we could be staring an at-large bid to the Fiesta Bowl again for our 5th trip in 6 years... or we'd be headed to the Capital One Bowl to play an SEC team... my guess would be one of Georgia, Tennessee, or Florida...

 

[msj2487]

But we might need some luck with Oregon losing.

Not really because we don't need Oregon to lose. Ideally this is what I've been thinking for tOSU to be able to get back into the NC:

Primarily 5 Key Scenarios:

- We NEED to beat scUM... of course (first and foremost, don't get me wrong!)
- LSU loses to either Arkansas or the SEC Championship (or both!)
- Oklahoma drops a game before the Big 12 Championship (Texas Tech or Oklahoma State), but either way that loss eliminates them from NC considerations, but still lets them win their conference division
- So in that respect we have Missouri beat Kansas to eliminate Kansas, and then Missouri loses to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship
- West Virginia must then lose one of its final 3 games, preferably Cincinnati

Alternatively:

- If Missouri were to drop to Kansas State before that happens then thats just an added bonus for us, because that would allow Oklahoma to go 11-1 (if Texas Tech or Okie State couldn't pull off the upset for some reason) into the Big 12 Championship and get beat by Missouri

Other Added Bonuses / Insurance Policies:

- USC beats Arizona State
- Georgia Tech beats Georgia and/or Kentucky beats Tennessee

Then we're golden to move to #2, and Oregon can be #1.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

...- West Virginia must then lose one of its final 3 games, preferably Cincinnati...

I'd just as soon not have UC build a recruiting base in OUR state, thanks. If they go to the Orange Bowl, they might actually build some momentum as a program.