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BCS Chances (El Gigante Merge)

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JonathanXC said:
JXC's predicted BCS ratings for this week...

#1 USC .9833
#2 Texas .9732
#3 Alabama .8967
#4 Miami .8537
#5 Penn State .7703
#6 Virginia Tech .7457
#7 LSU .7340
#8 Ohio State .6640
#9 Georgia .6633
#10 Oregon .6083


This was pretty hard to do without the Harris poll, and all of the computer poll info at the time I did it. But I used the thing I have called a brain, (something the BCS doesn't have) and tried to figure out what was likely to happen in the info I didn't have...and I think I may be at least pretty close. The difference between Georgia and Ohio State is the closest of all. Let's see how close I get to the real thing.

The biggest jump is Penn State...while LSU doesn't move even though two teams that were ahead of it in last weeks poll lost.

If the BCS poll does look like this, then our losses don't look so bad at all.

Also, the new BCS should have Michigan in the top 20, and Northwestern in the top 25. Again...another plus for us on our quest for the top 6.
Click to expand...

Well I got the order right

#1 USC .9802 (my guess: .9833) pretty much right on
#2 Texas .9765 (my guess: .9732) pretty much right on again
#3 Alabama .8814 (my guess: .8967) pretty close
#4 Miami .8805 (my guess: .8537) didn't think Miami would be this close to them...crazy! This gap will widen if Alabama wins out.
#5 Penn State .8136 (my guess: .7703) Even a stronger 5th than i thought.
#6 Virginia Tech .7540 (my guess: .7457) about right
#7 LSU .6987 (my guess: .7340) A lot closer to tOSU than I thought
#8 Ohio State .6632 (my guess: .6640) My closest estimate :)
#9 Georgia .6313 (my guess: .6633) I thought they'd be closer to tOSU, us having a margin is good.
#10 Oregon .6272 (my guess: .6083) About right, they are alittle further ahead of ND than I thought. The computers really hate ND.

So this is a pretty good BCS for us. Our SOS is only goign to get better, so the computers will likely love us even more.

PLEASE DO NOT READ UNLESS YOU WANT TO DREAM WITH ME FOR A SECOND. ITS A STUPID DREAM...BUT I HAD FUN WITH IT ANYWAY. DONT TAKE ME SERIOUS ON THIS.


Right now we are 8th in the BCS, and very close to LSU...even though they are 5 spots ahead of us in the polls. SO really, if we win out, and get anywhere near them in the polls, the computers love us so much, that we'd likely jump over them in the BCS...even if they do beat Alabama. Which of course, is another team we'd likely jump over if that happened.
But who are the teams between us and LSU that would need to lose to close the gap, that actually could. Well Virginia Tech may lose to Virginia, and Penn State still has to finish out against Michigan State. If both those teams lose, we'd get close enough to LSU to overtake them as well. Pushing us to 4th if these 3 things happen

VT loses once more
PSU loses to MSU
LSU beats Alabama

So the BCS would look like this:
#1 USC
#2 Texas
#3 Miami
#4 Ohio State

Well what is to keep Miami, FL from losing in the ACC championship game to FSU again...NOTHING that's what... so that'd push us to 3.

All of a sudden we are 3rd...and nothing REALLY drastic has happened yet.

So if Texas or USC lose 2 games...we are in the Rose Bowl. It's ain't gonna happen...but shit...it's a possibilty. And i'm not saying we deserve it or anything...it's more about how screwed up the system is.

USC does still play @ Cal, then against ranked Fresno State and UCLA. Who knows???
Also Texas still has to play @ Texas A&M and the Big 12 Championship

I think it's more likely USC loses 2 honestly. And Texas would move to #1...making us even more likable by the computers and polls...

So there you have it. USC will lose 2 games, FSU will beat Miami, MSU will beat Penn State, Virgina will beat VT, and LSU will beat Alabama. Then we will be playing Texas in the Rose Bowl. Done and done.

If SOS and margin of victory were still in the BCS...we'd even be rated a lot higher!!! Chew on that!


AGAIN ALL OF THE ABOVE IS MY LITTLE FAIRYTALE. DONT TAKE IT SERIOUSLY. DONT TELL ME IM BEING REDICULOUS BECAUSE I ALREADY KNOW IT IS! IM JUST BORED!!!
 
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JonathanXC said:
So if Texas or USC lose 2 games...we are in the Rose Bowl. It's ain't gonna happen...but shit...it's a possibilty.

So there you have it. USC will lose 2 games, FSU will beat Miami, MSU will beat Penn State, Virgina will beat VT, and LSU will beat Alabama. Then we will be playing Texas in the Rose Bowl. Done and done.
Click to expand...

Under your scenario (which by the way I've dreamed about) why would USC or Texas have to lose TWO games since any loss now would be to an unranked "over matched" opponent? They say losing late kills you, especially to the teams those two have left.
 
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Steve19 said:
Herbie thinks PSU loses at MSU. I am not so sure. MSU was gutted a bit at Purdue yesterday. They were held to just 30 yards in the second quarter and their heads were hanging pretty badly in the second half. They have a tough game at Minnesota next week and still need one victory to be bowl eligible.

MSU is a Jekyll and Hyde team. They play top teams tough and they may well need PSU to be bowl eligible, but you gotta like PSU with everything riding on the game and an extra week to prepare for it.
Click to expand...
If Herbie thinks MSU will win, then I like their chances......my day just got brighter :biggrin:
 
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Steve19: "Herbie thinks PSU loses at MSU. I am not so sure. MSU was gutted a bit at Purdue yesterday."

I don't think MSU has a chance to beat Penn State. The Spartans mailed in their season after the blocked FG attempt before the half in the 'Shoe, and John L Smith decided to throw his entire coaching staff under the bus on National TV.

Just a dumb, dumb, move on Smith's part. The kids basically quit on their coaches after that.

And, in a pure football sense, Penn State's D can hold Sparty in check & their Offense is good enough to score on an average MSU defense. I think this is a very favorable match-up for the Lions. But we'll see on Saturday.
 
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Sloopy45 said:
Steve19: "Herbie thinks PSU loses at MSU. I am not so sure. MSU was gutted a bit at Purdue yesterday."

I don't think MSU has a chance to beat Penn State. The Spartans mailed in their season after the blocked FG attempt before the half in the 'Shoe, and John L Smith decided to throw his entire coaching staff under the bus on National TV.

Just a dumb, dumb, move on Smith's part. The kids basically quit on their coaches after that.

And, in a pure football sense, Penn State's D can hold Sparty in check & their Offense is good enough to score on an average MSU defense. I think this is a very favorable match-up for the Lions. But we'll see on Saturday.
Click to expand...

I don't know about your whole PSU can hold MSU in check.

Here is how I see it.

MSU has absolutely nothing to lose and they will want to try and salvage their season and what better to do that to beat probably by then the number 4 team in the country.

PSU will have all the pressure in the world on them, to finally make it to a BCS bowl and have some respectablity, while they have been good, you know it is still in the back of their heads how bad they have been the past couple years and JoePa does get might conservative sometimes.

Then you have the homefield factor, where PSU has lost its only game on the road, in the same state no less.

Then you have Stanton who is one helluva a QB, who can shread any d apart and they have a nice running attack to go with it.

If MSU can figure away to stop PSU from putting up too many pts. they have a chance. We will see how the ball bounces.

Remember PSU almost lost to NW on the road and did lose to scUM two teams around the same caliber as MSU.
 
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