scooter1369
HTTR Forever.
Last I heard, we were trying to replace the Cuse with a Florida school.
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- Thread starter Carmen Ohio
- Start date
Last I heard, we were trying to replace the Cuse with a Florida school.
buckeyeboy
Still fortitudinous
Yep, Cal, a 1-loss Pac-10 team, didn't deserve a BCS bowl last year b/c they hadn't played anyone. They showed just how good they were when a mediocre Texas Tech team crushed them in the Holiday Bowl. Same thing goes this year: Oregon, a 1-loss Pac-10 team doesn't deserve a BCS bowl b/c their 1-loss record is more a product of inferior competition than it is of them being a good team. They'd be exposed for the fraud they are, just like their predecessor was last year.
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more stats...
Further comparison of OSU vs. ND/Oregon
Let's normalize those stats for the fact that OSU runs fewer plays per game than the other teams. As with the scUM game, I'll do that by comparing Yards Per Play (YPP) instead of Yards Per Game (YPG).
OFFENSE
_________________Differential YPP
OHIO STATE__________0.65______
Notre Dame___________0.78______
Oregon_______________0.55______
So the Buckeyes gain 0.65 yards per play MORE than their opponents give up on average to everybody else (game vs. the Buckeyes factored out of the average). ND is a little better, and Oregon is actually worse.
So you see that this comparison is actually MUCH closer than the comparison of YPG, and IMHO it is a better comparison of the relative power of the teams.
DEFENSE
_________________Differential YPP
OHIO STATE__________1.69______
Notre Dame___________0.14______
Oregon_______________0.94______
Um... Yeah. Still not close. I mean, if you thought that tOSU had a much better defense than either of the other two before, just look at that. tOSU holds offenses 80% farther below their average YPP than the Ducks and over 12 times farther below their average than the Domers.
And again, this analysis compares a team to everyone else on their opponents' schedules, which was previously shown to hold the Bucks to a higher standard than the other teams. And the Buckeyes STILL nearly hold their own on offense and appear vastly superior on defense.
MATCHUPS
OSU vs ND
As you would expect, this analysis shows unequivocally that OSU is VASTLY superior to either ND or Oregon in terms of YPP, which is an unbiased measure of a team's power.
What's interesting is that Oregon comes out looking better than Notre Dame in this comparison, whereas the reverse was true in the previous analysis.
Either way, the Bucks are better.
Next Question...
Further comparison of OSU vs. ND/Oregon
Let's normalize those stats for the fact that OSU runs fewer plays per game than the other teams. As with the scUM game, I'll do that by comparing Yards Per Play (YPP) instead of Yards Per Game (YPG).
OFFENSE
_________________Differential YPP
OHIO STATE__________0.65______
Notre Dame___________0.78______
Oregon_______________0.55______
So the Buckeyes gain 0.65 yards per play MORE than their opponents give up on average to everybody else (game vs. the Buckeyes factored out of the average). ND is a little better, and Oregon is actually worse.
So you see that this comparison is actually MUCH closer than the comparison of YPG, and IMHO it is a better comparison of the relative power of the teams.
DEFENSE
_________________Differential YPP
OHIO STATE__________1.69______
Notre Dame___________0.14______
Oregon_______________0.94______
Um... Yeah. Still not close. I mean, if you thought that tOSU had a much better defense than either of the other two before, just look at that. tOSU holds offenses 80% farther below their average YPP than the Ducks and over 12 times farther below their average than the Domers.
And again, this analysis compares a team to everyone else on their opponents' schedules, which was previously shown to hold the Bucks to a higher standard than the other teams. And the Buckeyes STILL nearly hold their own on offense and appear vastly superior on defense.
MATCHUPS
OSU vs ND
Matching avg ypp vs differential defense ypp suggests:
OSU vs OregonOSU dominates 5.85 yards per play to 4.33
Matching avg defense ypp vs differential offense ypp suggests:
OSU dominates 6.19 ypp to 5.06
Matching avg ypp vs differential defense ypp suggests:
OSU dominates 5.04 yards per play to 4.24
Matching avg defense ypp vs differential offense ypp suggests:
OSU dominates 5.69 ypp to 4.83
As you would expect, this analysis shows unequivocally that OSU is VASTLY superior to either ND or Oregon in terms of YPP, which is an unbiased measure of a team's power.
What's interesting is that Oregon comes out looking better than Notre Dame in this comparison, whereas the reverse was true in the previous analysis.
Either way, the Bucks are better.
Next Question...
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BuckeyeKid789
Guest
How 'bout you actually watch a couple of games and stop reading what other people say before you form an opinion?
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Bucktastic
Troy Smith for HEISMAN
Looked around, didnt see this posted yet.....
Here's an Oregon Writer's opinion. Interesting..
Holiday Bowl can help Ducks best
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
W hen he was a kid, John Junker, the head of the Fiesta Bowl committee, attended games in Ohio Stadium, where he rooted for the Buckeyes. The Fiesta Bowl's chief financial officer, Stan Laybourne, graduated from Ohio State. And Buckeyes athletic director Gene Smith was, until eight months ago, a Fiesta Bowl board member.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Like most of this state, you're probably rooting for Oregon to reach the Fiesta Bowl. And maybe you're hoping the Ducks will be matched up with Notre Dame or Penn State once there. But it wouldn't be the worst thing if Oregon got passed over in favor of the Buckeyes.
In fact, it would be a blessing.
You're going to have to restrain your first impulse as a fan here. You're going to have to see past the green and yellow, if that's what you bleed. Because it's the greater good that postseason football should be about.
And that greater good, for Oregon, lies in San Diego.
Don't let the three thrilling victories to finish the season fool you. Oregon, although 10-1, isn't nearly as potent as it was before Kellen Clemens broke his leg. The Ducks, with Clemens healthy, wouldn't have needed overtime to beat Cal. And Washington State wouldn't have come down to a game-winning field goal. And Oregon State might have needed a running clock in the Civil War.
That broken leg ends up being a crying shame, because Oregon was that close to a magical season with Clemens, the senior leader, under center. And the Ducks playing the Fiesta Bowl with one arm tied behind their backs isn't what's best for the program.
Utah beat Pittsburgh 35-7 in last January's Fiesta Bowl. It marked the 10th time in the past 16 years that the bowl game was decided by 17 points or more. Aside from the thrilling double-overtime 2003 title game between Miami and the Fiesta Bowl committee's favorite childhood team, this game has been a blowout.
The Fiesta match-ups are lousy. One possible opponent, Penn State, is the red-hot champion of a stronger football conference, and will have an emotional Joe Paterno in the locker room. The other, Charlie Weis-coached Notre Dame, was good enough with two weeks of preparation to play USC to the final play.
Oregon lost to USC by 32 points.
In Eugene.
With a healthy Clemens at quarterback.
Oregon co-quarterbacks Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf haven't played on a big stage. Pullman doesn't count. And they haven't played a single meaningful down against high-level college opposition, yet. Giving them an introduction to Penn State or Notre Dame in a high-profile Fiesta Bowl is risky business.
I f you're a real Oregon fan, you should root for the Holiday Bowl. San Diego isn't just the unofficial halter-top capital of the world, it's the right place for the Ducks this winter. With all that's coming back, Oregon might be better prepared for a Fiesta berth next season.
The risk analysis here is simple.
Oregon, ranked No. 7 in the BCS, would easily handle whichever overrated Big 12 opponent was presented in the Holiday Bowl. And Dixon and Leaf would get big-game experience on a semi-big-game stage. With a victory in the Holiday Bowl, the Ducks would finish the season ranked as high as No. 4 or No. 5 in the polls, which ends up being a terrific season when you lose your quarterback in Game No. 8.
And if they reached the Fiesta Bowl?
Well, lose that one if you're Oregon and you're out of the Top 10. And win it, and you're likely still right around No. 4 or No. 5 in the final poll, which sort of explains why you should secretly root for a Fiesta Bowl snub.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
John Canzano: 503-294-5065; [email protected]; to read his Web log, go to www.oregonlive.com/canzano Catch him on the radio on "The Bald-Faced Truth," KFXX (1080), 2-3 p.m. Fridays
link
http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/or...sports/1132716348184150.xml&coll=7&thispage=2
Here's an Oregon Writer's opinion. Interesting..
Holiday Bowl can help Ducks best
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
W hen he was a kid, John Junker, the head of the Fiesta Bowl committee, attended games in Ohio Stadium, where he rooted for the Buckeyes. The Fiesta Bowl's chief financial officer, Stan Laybourne, graduated from Ohio State. And Buckeyes athletic director Gene Smith was, until eight months ago, a Fiesta Bowl board member.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Like most of this state, you're probably rooting for Oregon to reach the Fiesta Bowl. And maybe you're hoping the Ducks will be matched up with Notre Dame or Penn State once there. But it wouldn't be the worst thing if Oregon got passed over in favor of the Buckeyes.
In fact, it would be a blessing.
You're going to have to restrain your first impulse as a fan here. You're going to have to see past the green and yellow, if that's what you bleed. Because it's the greater good that postseason football should be about.
And that greater good, for Oregon, lies in San Diego.
Don't let the three thrilling victories to finish the season fool you. Oregon, although 10-1, isn't nearly as potent as it was before Kellen Clemens broke his leg. The Ducks, with Clemens healthy, wouldn't have needed overtime to beat Cal. And Washington State wouldn't have come down to a game-winning field goal. And Oregon State might have needed a running clock in the Civil War.
That broken leg ends up being a crying shame, because Oregon was that close to a magical season with Clemens, the senior leader, under center. And the Ducks playing the Fiesta Bowl with one arm tied behind their backs isn't what's best for the program.
Utah beat Pittsburgh 35-7 in last January's Fiesta Bowl. It marked the 10th time in the past 16 years that the bowl game was decided by 17 points or more. Aside from the thrilling double-overtime 2003 title game between Miami and the Fiesta Bowl committee's favorite childhood team, this game has been a blowout.
The Fiesta match-ups are lousy. One possible opponent, Penn State, is the red-hot champion of a stronger football conference, and will have an emotional Joe Paterno in the locker room. The other, Charlie Weis-coached Notre Dame, was good enough with two weeks of preparation to play USC to the final play.
Oregon lost to USC by 32 points.
In Eugene.
With a healthy Clemens at quarterback.
Oregon co-quarterbacks Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf haven't played on a big stage. Pullman doesn't count. And they haven't played a single meaningful down against high-level college opposition, yet. Giving them an introduction to Penn State or Notre Dame in a high-profile Fiesta Bowl is risky business.
I f you're a real Oregon fan, you should root for the Holiday Bowl. San Diego isn't just the unofficial halter-top capital of the world, it's the right place for the Ducks this winter. With all that's coming back, Oregon might be better prepared for a Fiesta berth next season.
The risk analysis here is simple.
Oregon, ranked No. 7 in the BCS, would easily handle whichever overrated Big 12 opponent was presented in the Holiday Bowl. And Dixon and Leaf would get big-game experience on a semi-big-game stage. With a victory in the Holiday Bowl, the Ducks would finish the season ranked as high as No. 4 or No. 5 in the polls, which ends up being a terrific season when you lose your quarterback in Game No. 8.
And if they reached the Fiesta Bowl?
Well, lose that one if you're Oregon and you're out of the Top 10. And win it, and you're likely still right around No. 4 or No. 5 in the final poll, which sort of explains why you should secretly root for a Fiesta Bowl snub.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
John Canzano: 503-294-5065; [email protected]; to read his Web log, go to www.oregonlive.com/canzano Catch him on the radio on "The Bald-Faced Truth," KFXX (1080), 2-3 p.m. Fridays
link
http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/or...sports/1132716348184150.xml&coll=7&thispage=2
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BuckeyeKid789
Guest
not to be harsh but we would thump oregon with relative ease as would notre dame. oregon would be a better pairing in a BCS game vs the big least west virginia but that isnt gonna happen. i wanna see USF in a BCS bowl
I agree Ohio St. wouldn't have much trouble with U of O but I think it would be a close game with Notre Dame. Oregon probably had a better offense when they had Kellen Clemens who was better than Brady Quinn but since he played at Oregon he didn't get much love. Don't forget Oregon is probably motivated by the fact no one outside of Oregon is giving them respect.
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BuckeyeKid789
Guest
The only bad thing is you don't get as much money from the bowl and don't get the same exposure. If Oregon got paired up against Notre Dame then I would be confident they could hang with them and possibly pull of the upset. I want Oregon to go to the Holiday bowl since they would probably win and finish in the top 5 but most importantly it would give Ohio St. the bid.
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Warning, this is a technical observation.
Actually, the YPP measure is biased by variance in the quality of the opponents. It's good, but it has that bias.
Computer ratings comparisons, on the other hand, provide unbiased measures of a team's power provided that the expected value of the error terms sum to zero in the underlying mathematical models. That's why Sagarin's site says...
For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight
in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all CONNECTED, thenthe starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equaland the ELO-CHESS is then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.
RATING and PREDICTOR are unbiased and the ELO-CHESS is also UNBIASED.
Actually, the YPP measure is biased by variance in the quality of the opponents. It's good, but it has that bias.
Computer ratings comparisons, on the other hand, provide unbiased measures of a team's power provided that the expected value of the error terms sum to zero in the underlying mathematical models. That's why Sagarin's site says...
For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight
in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all CONNECTED, thenthe starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equaland the ELO-CHESS is then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.
RATING and PREDICTOR are unbiased and the ELO-CHESS is also UNBIASED.
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JXC
17-4 since 2001
The more I think about it...the more I see Ohio State being left on the outside. Lots of football left to be played. Hard for me to believe that 1. tOSU is the best at-large team out there and 2. tOSU travels as well as anybody in the country...and yet they still might get snubbed. But if somebody really wants Oregon over Ohio State, than so be it.
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Jeffcat
Banned
i think notre dame would throttle them just not as bad as we would. i watched oregon even with klemens and i wasnt impressed. i think their current qb is actually opening them up more because he is way more mobile and they run the option better. he seems to pass decently. i think oregon is receiving too much love from the media personally.
i think either way you look at it OSU vs Va Tech or OSU vs ND it will be a massive game and it strikes a big interest nationwide and i can almost guarantee it will be the 2nd most watched bowl game after the natl championship.
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OSU_Buckguy
Head Coach
i'd like to agree with you, but i'd be surprised if a notre dame-penn state game is not the highest rated non-national championship bcs game to date. while pulling in big numbers, an ohio state-virginia tech game couldn't compete with that. again, i'd like to be proven wrong. heck, i hope i can't, which would possibly mean that ohio state plays notre dame and penn state plays virginia tech.
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