BCS Chances (El Gigante Merge)

[BB73]

This hasn't been mentioned in about 6 pages, so I'll bring it up again. If tOSU finishes fourth in the BCS, behind USC, Texas, and PSU, they automatically secure a BCS berth. In other words, if you root for FSU and Georgia, all this speculation will be moot, as the Buckeyes can't be denied at that point.

Actually, FKA, the incompleteness of this statement was mentioned on post #357, on the previous page of this thread. I'll post it again, since if Texas is #3, we are not guaranteed an at-large bid:

And once again, if we finish #4 in the BCS standings, that will only guarantee us a BCS at-large bid if #3 is NOT a BCS at-large team. If Texas loses in their conference championship game, we could end up being screwed out of the BCS bid by a ND team that is lower in the BCS rankings. Just another reason to hate ND, and to hold off painting those end zones.

edit - changed since USC has locked up Pac-10 automatic after Oregon's win Saturday.

 

[Dryden]

http://www.ajc.com/gatech/content/sports/1105/22bcs.html

Auburn No. 10, but at-large berth unlikely

By TONY BARNHART
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 11/22/05

Auburn had hoped Saturday's romp over Alabama would give the Tigers a BCS boost and put them in position for an at-large bid to one of the four big bowls.

Auburn (9-2) jumped three spots to No. 10 when Monday's new standings were released, but odds are it won't be enough to get the Tigers into the BCS.

"We've got a pretty good football team, and we are certainly worthy of consideration," Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville said. "Anybody who saw last Saturday's game knows we are playing pretty well right now, and there is no doubt that we'll take a ton of people wherever we go."

If No. 1 USC and No. 2 Texas win out and play for the national championship in the Rose Bowl, it appears the Fiesta Bowl will get both at-large picks. Right now, the Fiesta is leaning toward matching No. 6 Ohio State (9-2), which tied No. 3 Penn State for the Big Ten title, and No. 8 Notre Dame (8-2) if the Irish beat Stanford on Saturday.

John Junker, the Fiesta Bowl's executive director, was at Saturday's Alabama-Auburn game. He was there to scout the 9-2 Crimson Tide, however, who likely would have been taken by the Fiesta had they won.

Still, he was impressed with Auburn and said the Tigers have been discussed as an at-large team.

"You have to be impressed with what Auburn has done," Junker said. "They are a very good football team. I think any bowl would have to have them on a list of at-large possibilities."

I'll dismiss this and guess that Junker is just paying lip service; being a gracious guest after Auburn hosted his trip this past weekend. I thought it was worthy of a post here though, since this is pretty much out of left field.

 

[exhawg]

Actually, FKA, the incompleteness of this statement was mentioned on post #357, on the previous page of this thread. I'll post it again, since if USC or Texas is #3, we are not guaranteed an at-large bid:

If USC loses they still win the Pac-10 tie breaker and get the Pac-10 BCS spot. I don't have a link, but I read that yesterday. PSU would play Texas for the NC and one of the other bowls would get to take USC.

I'm guessing

1.Fiesta- ND
2.Orange- USC
3.Fiesta- OSU
4.Sugar- WV

I would love to see this one also

1.Fiesta- USC
2.Orange- ND
3.Fiesta- OSU
4.Sugar- WV

The only thing that could really screw us is Texas losing the Big 12 championship game.

I think LSU has a good chance to lose the SEC championship game to Georgia so if FSU can knock off VT we will earn an at large BCS spot.

 

[exhawg]

Say somehow however unlikely it is USC loses to UCLA. How far do they drop in the human polls?

I think they would have to at least go down to 4 behind PSU.

 

[NightmaresDad]

Say somehow however unlikely it is USC loses to UCLA. How far do they drop in the human polls?

I think they would have to at least go down to 4 behind PSU.

Dude, I keep having this vision of Reggie Bush running through the UCLA defense, turns around at the 1 yard line, runs back throught the UCLA defense all the way back to his own goal line, turns around, and then runs 100 yards back through the UCLA defense again for the touchdown.
In other words, the 518 he got last game might pale in comparison to what he gets against UCLA.
TX and USC are on a collision course for the Rose Bowl and only a plane crash can stop it from happening.

I'm still waiting for one of these TV idiot analysts to ask or be asked what they think Oregon's record would have been if they would have played tOSU's schedule. I guess it's not going to happen.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

By Seth Fast Glass
DAILY BRUIN SENIOR STAFF
[email protected]

A UCLA victory over top-ranked USC on Dec. 3 would, among other things, officially give the Bruins a claim to a share of the Pac-10 title.

What it won't do is guarantee the Bruins the Pac-10's automatic bid for a BCS game, which now belongs to USC regardless of what happens at the Coliseum when the two teams meet.

By virtue of Oregon's 56-14 shellacking of Oregon State on Saturday and because of an abstract rule in the case of a multiple-team tie atop the Pac-10 standings, the Trojans will be the BCS's Pac-10 champion representative.

In the case of multiple teams sharing the conference's best record, as would be the case if No. 11 UCLA knocked off USC – leaving the Bruins, Trojans and Ducks with identical 7-1 Pac-10 records – the tie-breaking process would normally begin with head-to-head match-ups.

But because UCLA and Oregon did not play each other this season, the process instead starts in comparing the three teams' record against common opponents, where the Bruins would be the first eliminated by virtue of their loss to Arizona, whom Oregon and USC both defeated.

Once whittled down to two teams, the Trojans would get the final nod because of their 45-13 victory over the Ducks back on Sept. 24.

That would leave UCLA, who if it beats USC would be the only one of the three tied teams who has not lost to the either of the other two, looking for answers among several possibilities.

A potential 10-win Bruin team could conceivably find itself anywhere from a BCS game after New Years Day to the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl on Dec. 29 in San Diego to a less prestigious appearance at the Vitalis Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas on Dec. 30.

In the current BCS rankings, both UCLA (9-1) and Oregon (10-1) are ranked behind two-loss teams Ohio State (9-2) and Notre Dame (8-2). Even if the Bruins upset USC, they would most likely be vying with Oregon, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Auburn for one of two at-large BCS bids.

And that may be more of a concern, considering that the Pac-10 hasn't exactly fared well in the final BCS standings.

In 2001, a Nebraska team that was walloped in the Big XII North Championship was still awarded a trip to the Rose Bowl to play in the national championship, when many college football analysts agreed that a 10-1 Oregon squad was the more deserving team. The Huskers lost 37-14 to Miami in an extremely lopsided contest.

Then last season, a one-loss California team that was ahead of a one-loss Texas team in the BCS for the majority of the year was surpassed by the Longhorns in the final rankings and passed over for a BCS bowl game

Link

 

[exhawg]

Then last season, a one-loss California team that was ahead of a one-loss Texas team in the BCS for the majority of the year was surpassed by the Longhorns in the final rankings and passed over for a BCS bowl game

then got whooped on in their non-BCS bowl game proving the BCS snub to be the right move.

 

[methomps]

then got whooped on in their non-BCS bowl game proving the BCS snub to be the right move.

Does Oregon running all over Colorado prove the BCS made the wrong move in 2001?

 

[Pheasant]

Does Oregon running all over Colorado prove the BCS made the wrong move in 2001?

I think so. 2001 was a joke.

 

[buckeyegrad]

Does Oregon running all over Colorado prove the BCS made the wrong move in 2001?

To a certain degree, yes. Oregon and not Nebraska should have played Miami for the nation title. I don't think it changes the outcome of the Rose Bowl that year, but the game would have been a lot closer.

Nebraska in the 2001 Rose Bowl has been the biggest farce of the BSC so far...even worse than Oklahoma playing LSU in 2003 IMO.

 

[Dryden]

Nebraska in the 2001 Rose Bowl has been the biggest farse of the BSC so far...even worse than Oklahoma playing LSU in 2003 IMO.

No, Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl while Tee Martin's Tennessee team got to play an FSU squad limping into the Fiesta Bowl on fumes for the national championship was the biggest farce the BCS has ever seen.

 

[buckeyegrad]

No, Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl while Tee Martin's Tennessee team got to play an FSU squad limping into the Fiesta Bowl on fumes for the national championship was the biggest farce the BCS has ever seen.

I agree that Ohio State should have received the nod over FSU, but I still believe Nebraska in 2001 was the biggest joke.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

I'm with BG, 2001 was the worst BCS screw up ever. Didn't win their own DIVISION, let alone Conference, and yet played for all the marbles? Un-fucking-real.

Real simple fix coulda been had by the BCS too. "Don't win your conference, you're out" rule.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

DBB's Statistical Breakdown

You've seen my breakdowns of the games...

Here is the breakdown of this "controversy"

Let's look at how well each team did vs. their opponents' average output both offensively and defensively. Then we'll use those numbers to see which team might be expected to win a head-head contest (does that even matter to the Pac 10?). Finally, I'll add my take on the numbers and what they mean.

Recall that Differential YPG/PPG is a measure of how many more yards/points you produced than what your opponent gave up on average against their other opponents (their average with the game against you factored out).

OFFENSE

_________________Differential YPG_______Differential PPG
OHIO STATE__________19.03________________7.57_____
Notre Dame__________108.64_______________14.72_____
Oregon_______________62.64_______________11.54_____


OK, it looks like ND has the best offense of the group; with OSU respectable but still pulling up the rear. No surprise there, but it doesn't tell the whole story.


DEFENSE

_________________Differential YPG_______Differential PPG
OHIO STATE_________171.86_______________18.06_____
Notre Dame___________25.25________________6.40_____
Oregon_______________70.58________________8.21_____

Um... WOW. That's not close. OSU has a much better defense than either team. Again, not really a surprise.


MATCHUPS

OSU vs ND

Matching avg offense vs differential defense suggests:

OSU Wins 26-20 (379 yards to 300 yards)

​

Matching avg defense vs differential offense suggests:

OSU Wins 30.47 to 29.54 (So close I have to show 4 digits) (400 yards to 384 yards)

​

OSU vs Oregon

Matching avg offense vs differential defense suggests:

OSU Wins 24-18 (334 yards to 277 yards)

​

Matching avg defense vs differential offense suggests:

OSU Wins 31-26 (376 yards to 338 yards)

​

Analysis

So Ohio State is the better team when you do the RAW analysis. But there is a hole in this type of analysis that I didn't really get into during the Big 10 season. During league games, this "hole" isn't very big; but when comparing teams from different conferences (or no conference) it can be huge.

The "hole" I speak of (something only Mililani pointed out) is that this analysis compares you to everybody else on your opponents' schedules. But what if your opponents played teams that built strong numbers by playing weak schedules? Then when they play you, it is easy to hold their numbers way down. In other words, what if your opponents' opponents sucked?

So to balance this analysis, you have to compare not your schedule but your Opponents' Schedules to the other team's Opponents' Schedules. Again, in league play, this isn't usually a big deal. But when comparing OSU to ND and Oregon, it's a very big deal.

I decided to look at opponents' schedule in two ways.

• Raw winning %
• Sagarin Strength of Schedule Ranking

I include the Sagarin numbers because I believe strongly that a weak conference can artificially inflate SOS numbers, both for you and your opponents. I include the Raw numbers because the Oregon and ND fans won't like the Sagarin ratings, but the Raw numbers STILL show Buckeye dominance.


Opponents Schedule Strength

_________________Raw % avg rank________Sagarin avg rank
OHIO STATE___________31.5___________________15.5_____
Notre Dame____________39.2___________________32.5_____
Oregon________________45.9___________________46.2_____



​

Let's TRY to wrap our minds around how stark a contrast this is.

• Differential Numbers compare you to the rest of the teams on your opponents' schedules.
• OSU is therefore compared against a MUCH better set of teams via this analysis than are ND and Oregon.
• OSU came out on top ANYWAY.
• To Repeat: Compared Against a Better Standard - Look Better Anyway

So if it matters which team is better; the clear FIRST choice for the FIESTA BOWL is Ohio State. Who they choose with their second choice is their business.

They're going to get their ass kicked anyway.

 

[Steve19]

i love ohio state's brazen gumption in scheduling tough non-conference games, but, boy, they are making the path to a national championship extremely difficult... as if it's not already difficult.

2006
at texas

2007
syracuse (perhaps we need a breather)

I think Syracuse will be replaced by another opponent. They have announced that Ohio State has asked to be released from the commitment in order to schedule another opponent.