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Alabama just ruined my high and our playoff chances

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GovTressel said:
Update this morning—538 still gives us a 60% chance if we beat Wisky. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving a 1 loss Bama out, but if you look at their resume without the name, it’s pretty weak.

TCU winning the big12 is also a path of course.
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Even if TCU wins I'd put Oklahoma ahead of us

BUT - Alabama definitely does NOT deserve to be in. Their best win is....LSU? 2nd best is....Mississippi State?! I mean we have 2, arguably 3 better wins than any of theirs (assuming we beat Wisconsin, PSU, MSU) and beating Miss State is equivalent to beating Michigan.

I think right now it's Oklahoma and Clemson (can't see them losing) as in....Auburn or Georgia and then hopefully us. Would love to get Oklahoma again.
 
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GovTressel said:
Update this morning—538 still gives us a 60% chance if we beat Wisky. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving a 1 loss Bama out, but if you look at their resume without the name, it’s pretty weak.

TCU winning the big12 is also a path of course.
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Pretty much. The only way Alabama gets in this year is if they use the name Bama and Saban to justify it. Otherwise they have 1 top 15 win a puffed up LSU who lost to Troy and whole lot of mediocre and dog shit on the sechedule. Do 2 top 10 wins balance out a terrible loss against Iowa I don't know but I don't see any reason the SEC should get 2 teams.
 
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bigdog3300 said:
Even if TCU wins I'd put Oklahoma ahead of us

BUT - Alabama definitely does NOT deserve to be in. Their best win is....LSU? 2nd best is....Mississippi State?! I mean we have 2, arguably 3 better wins than any of theirs (assuming we beat Wisconsin, PSU, MSU) and beating Miss State is equivalent to beating Michigan.

I think right now it's Oklahoma and Clemson (can't see them losing) as in....Auburn or Georgia and then hopefully us. Would love to get Oklahoma again.
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If OKL loses they’re out..2 losses and no conference champ is an eliminator to any team, any year.
 
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I think the 538 model is predicated on the fact that the Big 10 is seen as a superior conference to the SEC in power rankings this year. As usual the SEC is very top heavy, but Alabama's issue is they didn't beat a powerhouse. They have 3 top 10 teams, 4 in top 25 (Miss St should drop out after getting hammered on Saturday) where the Big 10 will have 3 top 10 teams, 5 in top 25.

But OSU at least has wins over PSU (top 10 team) and would have a win over #4 Wisconsin.

If OSU wins conference championship, are you really going to leave arguably the best conference out of the playoffs? I think that is why we still have a 60% chance.

I think if we win Saturday, committee finds a way to sneak us in.

I am a bit concerned about OSU fatigue and they did give us the benefit of the doubt last year.

But if you take names off the resumes, I think it's clear OSU has a very strong argument to be included.
 
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billmac91 said:
I think the 538 model is predicated on the fact that the Big 10 is seen as a superior conference to the SEC in power rankings this year. As usual the SEC is very top heavy, but Alabama's issue is they didn't beat a powerhouse. They have 3 top 10 teams, 4 in top 25 (Miss St should drop out after getting hammered on Saturday) where the Big 10 will have 3 top 10 teams, 5 in top 25.

But OSU at least has wins over PSU (top 10 team) and would have a win over #4 Wisconsin.

If OSU wins conference championship, are you really going to leave arguably the best conference out of the playoffs? I think that is why we still have a 60% chance.

I think if we win Saturday, committee finds a way to sneak us in.

I am a bit concerned about OSU fatigue and they did give us the benefit of the doubt last year.

But if you take names off the resumes, I think it's clear OSU has a very strong argument to be included.
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I’m with ya. It feels like it comes down to how objective the committee is. From a fan’s perspective leaving Bama out and letting OSU in AGAIN probably seems unjust. From a pure analytics point of view, weighing conference championships somewhat heavily, we should be in.

Your comment expanding mine about “taking names out” actually benefiting us does feel strange. We obviously have benefited from our brand in the past.

All that being said, will anyone here feel cheated if we’re let out? Probably not.
 
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HabaneroBuck said:
Last year, my main argument for why we should have been in instead of the Peddsters was 49-10. You lose like that, you don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Well, Iowa game, period. Even if we beat Wisky, I don't see us as being legit. Sorry, we aren't worthy, and I don't even care if Bama or some two-loss team or even Central Florida gets in over us.
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Hard to argue any of that.
 
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2016 Ohio State had a much better resume, including a top ten win to close out the season. Bama does not have that this year and I expect it to burn them if Ohio State beats Whisky, because they will have the wins and a conference championship.
 
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