2020 ttun Shenanigans, Arguments, and Surrender Cobras (Confirmed COWARDS!)

[NFBuck]

Yep. But Michigan has what it takes to turn the program around: world-class facilities, fan base, strong alum base, money, history. They could steal Fleck from Minnesota in a heartbeat, they could give Kirby Smart an offer that would at least cause him to think - he wouldn't have to compete with Alabama, Auburn, and Florida each year - just beat Ohio State. Bad as Michigan's record has been against us, they're in a better position in the Big Ten than everyone but Penn State and the Buckeyes. Oh, and they kicked the shit out of Notre Dame last year.

I think it's risky to assume ANYBODY would leap to take the scUM job. Look at their coaching search after DickRod. They had to settle for Brady friggin' Hoke. In 2014, the stars aligned for them to bring the Harbrau home, but if Jimbo hadn't just been shitcanned by the 49ers, does anybody of note take that job? I'm not so sure. On the flip-side, they're dumping tons of money into Harbaugh right now, and he's giving them post-2000 Lllllllloyd results. Are the blue hairs up there going to be willing to pay $8M/year for a coach again when it yielded such mediocre on-field results this time? Nationally, scUM is viewed as a program that was once a power, but now a chronic under-achiever. I don't think they hold the prestige they did two decades ago. Maybe PJ Fleck is wired to see it as a challenge. Or maybe he looks at it and says the last three coaches (DickRod, Hoke, Harbaugh) had their careers either killed, or at least severely damaged by taking that job. As for Kirby Smart, he's a UGA alum and is doing quite well there. I see no scenario where he leaves that job.

To me, their next step is going to have to be to find an up-and-comer to try to come in and totally reset the way they do things. I just don't see an established coach taking that job if he has other options.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Not to take this OT, but I think it is not only NFL prep but everybody wants to play in the playoffs. It has a very different level of attraction than "play in a major bowl game". To date, of the 24 available playoff spots in 6 years four teams have filled 17 of those spots. I have always been an opponent of expansion, but if they ever go to 8 teams it will give a lot more schools leverage to land top tier prospects.

That said, as long as we own the B1G it wont be much help for Michigan.

Could very well be. Good point.

Even at 8 teams though, the individual aspect of "NFL prep school" compared to the team aspect of "playoff contender", I know which one is going to win out with the elite kids.

The ND/PSU/tsun/second tier SEC schools might start making more playoffs but they will still have to compare their NFL prep chops to the Bama/LSU/Clemson/OSU elite.

Another point to consider is what we have seen happen so many times now when that next tier down (the last 4 in an 8 team playoff) go against the top 3-4 teams. Not sure how much a "come get into the playoffs because they expanded the field and get beat to an inch of our lives in the first game" pitch goes for the tsun crowd.

 

[Dryden]

 

[NFBuck]

Right now, the elite first tier teams are Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana State, and Oklahoma. Given its local talent base, Southern Cal could also join that list. If NIL rights ever become a reality, then Oregon will become a major player due to its Nike connections.

Notre Dame will always have a unique appeal, but it probably won't be enough to get them back into the first tier.

Who the Hell knows what's wrong with Texas. They should definitely be in the first tier, but are struggling to maintain second tier status.

So Michigan is stuck in the second tier, trying to distinguish itself from the likes of Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida, Auburn, Texas A+M, Tennessee, Washington, and a suddenly energized Minnesota and North Carolina. Demographics and weather will always be against Michigan, and right now they aren't winning big games or developing talent. So what's Michigan's sale pitch? Arrogance, entitlement, and pre-WWI national championships. Good luck with that....

Texas and USC are such interesting cases to me. Both have fairly recent periods of high-level success, but have fallen off for different reasons and have been unable to get back.

Texas has the money, the facilities, the recruiting base and the prestige to be on par with Bammer/tOSU/LSU/OU/etc...but just cannot put it together. They fell off because Mack Brown hung on too long and made several poor choices for coordinators that led to some terrible defense and the inability to develop an offense. Most people considered Charlie Strong a good hire coming off his success at Louisville, but he never was embraced in Austin. Tom Herman was THE hot coach in 2016, but he hasn't been able to get anything going. Is that a case of him just being overrated as a coach, or is he just being swallowed up by the negative momentum surrounding the program? Either way, things are broken there.

USC has the same positives Texas does, except maybe facilities. But that location will always be an easy sell to recruits. Petey was the perfect coach at the perfect time. However, scandal swallowed him up and he (wisely) cut bait and ran to the NFL as it was catching up to him. Since then, a goof-ball athletics department has made a series of bad hires. Clay Helton being the head guy there still boggles my mind.

Both programs are "sleeping giants" in my mind, but they need to be smart about who they hire to turn things around. I don't see scUM in the same category. I think, this day in age, they're just a regional program that is too tied to the "_ichigan Way" that doesn't play today. Since winning 1/2 a NC in 1997, scUM has entered the game twice in 22 years (2006/2016) in a position to compete for a NC and lost both games and their bowl game. The rest of the time, they've been a lock for 3-4 losses a year. That is not a national power.

 

[Jaxbuck]

So OSU has 3.75x the depth of top tier talent as it's second closest competitor (PSU) and 7.5x the depth of top tier talent as tsun.

Round it off and that's 4:1 and 8:1 ratio respectively.

See above comments about Have and Have not. That's who you would be opening the field up to with 8 teams.

the PSU/tsun's of CFB going against the Clemson/Bama/LSU/OSU/OU's of CFB.

The less talented team would be lucky to win 2 of ten times.

 

[sparcboxbuck]

So OSU has 3.75x the depth of top tier talent as it's second closest competitor (PSU) and 7.5x the depth of top tier talent as tsun.

Round it off and that's 4:1 and 8:1 ratio respectively.

See above comments about Have and Have not. That's who you would be opening the field up to with 8 teams.

the PSU/tsun's of CFB going against the Clemson/Bama/LSU/OSU/OU's of CFB.

The less talented team would be lucky to win 2 of ten times.

And we should keep it that way.

 

[Zippercat]

The less talented team would be lucky to win 2 of ten times.

So it would be college Football’s version of March Madness? Ok!

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

Texas and USC are such interesting cases to me. Both have fairly recent periods of high-level success, but have fallen off for different reasons and have been unable to get back.

Texas has the money, the facilities, the recruiting base and the prestige to be on par with Bammer/tOSU/LSU/OU/etc...but just cannot put it together. They fell off because Mack Brown hung on too long and made several poor choices for coordinators that led to some terrible defense and the inability to develop an offense. Most people considered Charlie Strong a good hire coming off his success at Louisville, but he never was embraced in Austin. Tom Herman was THE hot coach in 2016, but he hasn't been able to get anything going. Is that a case of him just being overrated as a coach, or is he just being swallowed up by the negative momentum surrounding the program? Either way, things are broken there.

USC has the same positives Texas does, except maybe facilities. But that location will always be an easy sell to recruits. Petey was the perfect coach at the perfect time. However, scandal swallowed him up and he (wisely) cut bait and ran to the NFL as it was catching up to him. Since then, a goof-ball academic department has made a series of bad hires. Clay Helton being the head guy there still boggles my mind.

Both programs are "sleeping giants" in my mind, but they need to be smart about who they hire to turn things around. I don't see scUM in the same category. I think, this day in age, they're just a regional program that is too tied to the "_ichigan Way" that doesn't play today. Since winning 1/2 a NC in 1997, scUM has entered the game twice in 22 years (2006/2016) in a position to compete for a NC and lost both games and their bowl game. The rest of the time, they've been a lock for 3-4 losses a year. That is not a national power.

Texas is a coaching graveyard. Outside of 04-09, they haven't seen any sustained national relevance since the mid 70s. It's been the occasional top 10 season and good bowl sprinkled into a mix of multiple years of failure and mediocrity. Even their window of national relevance was only possible by having a literal idiot savant QB drop into their lap, one who was so naturally gifted (and so intellectually ungifted) that they literally stopped coaching him and let him go sandlot his senior year.

 

[NFBuck]

Texas is a coaching graveyard. Outside of 04-09, they haven't seen any sustained national relevance since the mid 70s. It's been the occasional top 10 season and good bowl sprinkled into a mix of multiple years of failure and mediocrity. Even their window of national relevance was only possible by having a literal idiot savant QB drop into their lap, one who was so naturally gifted (and so intellectually ungifted) that they literally stopped coaching him and let him go sandlot his senior year.

Fair. They are overrated as a program, but the perception that they are a "top program" is still there. And, I'd add Colt McCoy to Radio. He won them a ton of games and they competed for National Championships with him...or at least were in the discussion...and if Bammer didn't knock him out of that NC Game, I'm not sure they don't beat Bammer.

They have everything it takes to be a power, they've just been handicapped by a piss-poor administration and meddling booster/alumni network. Great location, nearly unlimited cash, arguably the most fertile recruiting base in the nation and top-shelf facilities and they can't even win their own conference once in the last decade? Shameful. And if Mack (outside of 2005) wasn't their version of Llllloyd Carr when it comes to OU, who knows how many championships they may have won from 2003-2010.

 

[Wingate1217]

The next fiveyears should interesting for some of the traditional powers....

OSU-stays pat assuming Mr. Day stays (could attain lofty status if Day continues to coach and recruit like he has the last 18 months.)-Multiple Nattys
Michigan-I would think Harbru will be gone-make or break time in Ann Arbor (fuck them)
Penn St.-Stays pat assuming Franklin stays-Occasionally moments of glory but always second fiddle to OSU
Alabama-Saban will retire (who will be there Earle to Saban's Woody) and of course Dabo could leave for home either way Bama or Clemson will to make a intelligent hiring decision
Clemson-See Bama above
Texas-Herman has one maybe two years to show he is the man-not looking good for them
LSU-The next two years will prove if Ed caught lightening in a bottle or can sustain the program at elite status
USC-50-50 whether they will be back-Clay Helton doesn't supply much confidence (they need a rock star after old Clay)
Norte Dame-Stays pat and second tier with Kelly
Whisky-Stays pat
Nebbie-I thought frost would turn this around faster-still has time but the '90s were a long time ago
Tennessee-Ascending (seems to be getting a lot of buzz lately in recruiting circles-will it transfer to the Field?)
Georgia-Still can't shake the big game issue-decison making of Kirby suspect sitting Fields for Fromm

There are some other players but I have to go back to work :)

 

[Systems_id]

And we should keep it that way.

Goddamn right. Always cracks me up seeing people get happy when the B1G is doing well in recruiting. Fuck that. Makes OSU’s path to the CFP that much harder. I much prefer year’s like 2019 when OSU showed up ready to play than 2018 when it looks like the team was sleepwalking in all but a handful of games.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Goddamn right. Always cracks me up seeing people get happy when the B1G is doing well in recruiting. Fuck that. Makes OSU’s path to the CFP that much harder.

 

[Mike80]

The next fiveyears should interesting for some of the traditional powers....

OSU-stays pat assuming Mr. Day stays (could attain lofty status if Day continues to coach and recruit like he has the last 18 months.)-Multiple Nattys
Michigan-I would think Harbru will be gone-make or break time in Ann Arbor (fuck them)
Penn St.-Stays pat assuming Franklin stays-Occasionally moments of glory but always second fiddle to OSU
Alabama-Saban will retire (who will be there Earle to Saban's Woody) and of course Dabo could leave for home either way Bama or Clemson will to make a intelligent hiring decision
Clemson-See Bama above
Texas-Herman has one maybe two years to show he is the man-not looking good for them
LSU-The next two years will prove if Ed caught lightening in a bottle or can sustain the program at elite status
USC-50-50 whether they will be back-Clay Helton doesn't supply much confidence (they need a rock star after old Clay)
Norte Dame-Stays pat and second tier with Kelly
Whisky-Stays pat
Nebbie-I thought frost would turn this around faster-still has time but the '90s were a long time ago
Tennessee-Ascending (seems to be getting a lot of buzz lately in recruiting circles-will it transfer to the Field?)
Georgia-Still can't shake the big game issue-decison making of Kirby suspect sitting Fields for Fromm

There are some other players but I have to go back to work :)

Oklahoma - probably peaked with Lincoln Riley. They aren't going to win a championship until they take playing defense more seriously.
FSU - Dead program - Jimbo Fisher killed it. Unless someone comes in and demands that the university update things (facilities, etc), they are never returning to what they were.
Cryami - Dead program - Jim Tressel killed it.
Oregon - I think their best shot was ended by Ohio State.
Washington - I thought Chris Petersen was going to end up doing better then he did there. Being in the CFP discussion into November is probably their peak going forward.
Flori-duh - 2nd fiddle to UGA, 3rd or 4th fiddle to Bama.

10 years ago we would have been talking about TCU (still a mid-major in almost every respect) and Utah (same issue) but neither of them are really relevant anymore.

 

[Abenaki]

Michigan-I would think Harbru will be gone-make or break time in Ann Arbor (fuck them)

Something tells me we'll look back at November 26, 2016 as a breaking point for that program.

 

[Steve19]

Something tells me we'll look back at November 26, 2016 as a breaking point for that program.

With great respect and sadness, of course....