How the Big Ten and Big 12 title games will affect the playoff
The fates of Alabama and Ohio State present the most interesting scenarios entering championship weekend, with the potential to cause the most difficult decisions for the 13-member selection committee. The champions of the ACC and SEC are most likely locks, and if Wisconsinand Oklahoma win the Big Ten and Big 12 title games, respectively, there won't be much drama on Selection Day on Dec. 3. If they don't both win, though, then the debate will turn to teams such as the Tide, the Buckeyes and perhaps other contenders.
Here's a look at three scenarios that could play out on championship weekend:
Here's a look at three scenarios that could play out on championship weekend:
Scenario 1: Oklahoma wins Big 12, Ohio State wins Big Ten
CFP locks: SEC champ, ACC champ, Oklahoma
Case for No. 4: Alabama, Ohio State, ACC loser, USC
The ACC loser, whether it be Miami or Clemson, would have two losses, and it is a stretch to think the committee would reward a two-loss conference runner-up. Miami would likely be out, riding a two-game losing streak, but Clemson could at least make a case with its seven wins against teams above .500. Four of those opponents have won at least eight games, and Clemson could wind up with a win over the SEC champ if it's Auburn. The problem with USC is that, even with a Pac-12 championship, the Trojans' best and only ranked wins would be over Stanford (twice).
LSU, which wouldn't compare to an Ohio State win over undefeated Wisconsin, or even to the Buckeyes' win against No. 10 Penn State. Ohio State would have the better résumé, but would the committee consider how consistently good Alabama has looked on the field and choose the Tide?
The best comparison for Ohio State's résumé would be Penn State's in 2016. The committee is wrestling with Ohio State's 55-24 loss to Iowa, just as it did with Penn State's 49-10 loss to Michigan last season. Don't forget, the two-loss Nittany Lions beat Wisconsin that year to win the Big Ten championship and it wasn't enough. It's a different year, with different résumés, but the losses and Big Ten title would be comparable.
Although it's tempting to compare Alabama's résumé to Ohio State's in 2016, when the Buckeyes finished in the top four despite not winning their division, don't forget that the Buckeyes' nonconference win over Oklahoma carried a lot of weight with the committee. The Tide do not have a similar marquee win in or out of conference. The better comparison for Bama might be the 2015 Ohio State team, which might have been the most talented team in the country but didn't make the playoff because of one loss.
Entire article:
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...112817/acc-sec-play-games-other-cfp-scenarios
