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2017 College Football Playoffs (and Other Bowl Games)

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zincfinger said:
I think the committee could very easily keep OU ahead of TCU even if TCU wins their "championship game". The two teams would have identical records, a 1-1 head-to-head record, and OU would have a better win in the non-conference schedule than TCU has. The only basis for putting TCU ahead is the assumption that recent games matter more, but as far as I can tell that's only an assumption.
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I see your point... I personally think they'd just avoid that situation all together and roll with Alabama and OSU.
 
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zincfinger said:
I think the committee could very easily keep OU ahead of TCU even if TCU wins their "championship game". The two teams would have identical records, a 1-1 head-to-head record, and OU would have a better win in the non-conference schedule than TCU has. The only basis for putting TCU ahead is the assumption that recent games matter more, but as far as I can tell that's only an assumption.
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that sets a very dangerous precedent. After last year, people already think Conf Champs won't matter, they can't just throw it out the window
 
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OU is definitely done if they lose. Them beating us pretty much gets canceled out in a 3 way race between Ohio State TCU and Oklahoma with a loss to TCU in the Big 12 title game. At that point it is down to Ohio State and TCU. (If that's how the games this weekend end up)

There is no way they can logically justify not dropping OU out of the top 4 and favoring them ahead of a team with an identical record that just beat them in their conference title game.

And does a head to head game in week 2 of the season really weigh more than Ohio State states hypothetical conference championship in this scenario? I don't think so.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
OU is definitely done if they lose. Them beating us pretty much gets canceled out in a 3 way race between Ohio State TCU and Oklahoma with a loss to TCU in the Big 12 title game. At that point it is down to Ohio State and TCU.

There is no way they can logically justify not dropping OU out of the top 4 and favoring them ahead of a team with an identical record that just beat them in their conference title game
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Still think it would be better odds for us if Oklahoma just beats TCU, especially by 17+. People want Auburn to lose to make Alabama's L weaker. Same could be said for us. If Oklahoma wins, that basically puts our loss against them a loss against the new #1 team in the country and early in the season.
 
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Bucknut24 said:
that sets a very dangerous precedent. After last year, people already think Conf Champs won't matter, they can't just throw it out the window
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It doesn't seem like a particularly dangerous precedent to me, an no more "dangerous" than putting an Ohio State team ahead of an Oklahoma team that has an equivalent record (in this hypothetical scenario) and that pantsed OSU in Ohio Stadium. Not all conference championships are created equal and, in particular, I wouldn't give as much credence to the current BigXII conference championship if I were on the committee. Because it's just a repeat game. Particularly in this scenario, where the "championship" just evens the record between the two teams. Not the same thing as a championship between division winners who haven't played each other previously.
 
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KOBuckeye said:
Still think it would be better odds for us if Oklahoma just beats TCU, especially by 17+. People want Auburn to lose to make Alabama's L weaker. Same could be said for us. If Oklahoma wins, that basically puts our loss against them a loss against the new #1 team in the country and early in the season.
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Our odds go up tremendously if OU loses. That leaves at least 1 open spot in the top 4 for sure. Which likely goes to Ohio State if they beat Wisconsin. I don't think TCU beating OU would be enough to jump them ahead of us after beating an undefeated Wisconsin team.
 
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zincfinger said:
It doesn't seem like a particularly dangerous precedent to me, an no more "dangerous" than putting an Ohio State team ahead of an Oklahoma team that has an equivalent record (in this hypothetical scenario) and that pantsed OSU in Ohio Stadium. Not all conference championships are created equal and, in particular, I wouldn't give as much credence to the current BigXII conference championship if I were on the committee. Because it's just a repeat game. Particularly in this scenario, where the "championship" just evens the record between the two teams. Not the same thing as a championship between division winners who haven't played each other previously.
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So you're living by the logic that conference championship results shouldn't really matter? That's what it seems like at least. Repeat games happen in the division format too.....hell the Pac 12, SEC, AAC, MWC and MAC title games are all rematches even though all those conferences have division play.

By this logic Auburn should get in win or loss, because they already waxed UGA earlier in the season and are "stuck" playing them again in a conference title game.

OU SHOULD win a rematch of a game they easily won earlier in the season. If they lose they deserve to drop out.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
...There is no way they can logically justify not dropping OU out of the top 4 and favoring them ahead of a team with an identical record that just beat them in their conference title game...
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Sure there is; the rationale above is entirely logical, to the extent that "logic" is the issue here. The questions are: (i) whether recent games matter significantly more, and (ii) whether the mere act of calling a game a "conference championship game" makes it significantly more impactful than an earlier game between the same opponents. I'm not sure we know the answer to either of those. We do know OU has a better non-conference win than TCU does.
shiloh said:
Bottom line, if you're a team deserving to be in the CFP you win your final game! IOW you can't limp into the playoffs.
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If that is true (i.e. some kind of unspoken rule that the committee follows, or is strongly persuaded by), Alabama is already eliminated. Not sure that's true, though.
 
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zincfinger said:
It doesn't seem like a particularly dangerous precedent to me, an no more "dangerous" than putting an Ohio State team ahead of an Oklahoma team that has an equivalent record (in this hypothetical scenario) and that pantsed OSU in Ohio Stadium. Not all conference championships are created equal and, in particular, I wouldn't give as much credence to the current BigXII conference championship if I were on the committee. Because it's just a repeat game. Particularly in this scenario, where the "championship" just evens the record between the two teams. Not the same thing as a championship between division winners who haven't played each other previously.
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One would've won their last game and the other lost their lost game... timing is everything it seems like with these people deciding.

There's just no way you keep OU in over TCU that'd be criminal with identical records and one having a championship.

Honestly most don't think it will happy but I think it will. Their first game was played in Norman and this game is essentially a home game for TCU. If there's one team that can do it it would be TCU because of their defense. If TCU comes out and focuses on running the ball I think they can pull the upset.

I'm going to roll with 1. Clemson 2. UGA (home game as well) 3. OSU and 4. Alabama
 
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zincfinger said:
Sure there is; the rationale above is entirely logical, to the extent that "logic" is the issue here. The questions are: (i) whether recent games matter significantly more, and (ii) whether the mere act of calling a game a "conference championship game" makes it significantly more impactful than an earlier game between the same opponents. I'm not sure we know the answer to either of those. We do know OU has a better non-conference win than TCU does.
If that is true (i.e. some kind of unspoken rule that the committee follows, or is strongly persuaded by), Alabama is already eliminated. Not sure that's true, though.
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Read my post above.

5 of the other conference title games are rematches......and those conferences all have division play. Division play doesn't even remotely automatically = no rematch games in the conference title game.

Why should OU get a free pass because they have to play a rematch? Why wouldnt Auburn get the same luxury considering they already threw the smackdown on UGA a few weeks ago? It's just poor logic......that I doubt the committee would employ

In a situation like this I believe the conference title outweighs the other aspects.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
So you're living by the logic that conference championship results shouldn't really matter? That's what it seems like at least. Repeat games happen in the division format too.....hell the Pac 12, SEC, AAC, MWC and MAC title games are all rematches even though all those conferences have division play.

By this logic Auburn should get in win or loss, because they already waxed UGA earlier in the season and are "stuck" playing them again in a conference title game.

OU SHOULD win a rematch of a game they easily won earlier in the season. If they lose they deserve to drop out.
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No, I'm offering the opinion that the BigXII championship game specifically should not have a weight substantially beyond a "regular" game, in the scenario where it equalizes the record and head-to-head between the two teams. The BigXII championship game is somewhat unique here, because it is always a rematch and because the two opponents have always played the same conference schedule. Aside from that, your Auburn example is not the same, because it does not equalize the overall record between the teams. If Auburn loses, they have 3 losses to UGa's one loss. That is a significant difference.

So, I am not saying conference championship games don't, or shouldn't, matter. I'm saying they are not all the same and that sometimes, particularly in the BigXII, it is reasonable to treat them substantially like a regular-season conference game.
 
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