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2017 College Football Playoffs (and Other Bowl Games)

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kujirakira said:
Georgia wins, Bama and Auburn are still in the discussion. Even with 3 losses... it's a CCG loss to a team they beat soundly earlier on.
Bama and Georgia never played. So Bama is right back in it as a marquee 1 vs 4 Sugar Bowl all-SEC matchup.
Auburn wins, there's only 1 SEC team. No doubt left who the SEC champ is. Beat Georgia twice and Bama last game of the season. 2-loss Conference Champs have open invitations... just a matter of which 4 Champs the Committee likes.
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If Auburn loses they are done, it does not matter, with 3 losses there is no chance they would get in no matter what at this point since the reg season games for those who matter are all over. If Auburn lost even other CCG losers with better record would be more deserving, like if Wisky loses, or OU, our Clemson/Miami loser. Then you have Bama, and the winners like OSU, Clemson/U winner, UGA, and even a team like USC.

If Auburn wins I am still not convinced Bama is out. unless OU, Clemson, and Wisky win. We all know Bama doesn't really deserve it, but it's not how it works unfortunately. if the committee doesn't drop Bama past 4 for this weeks rankings, I don't see any way they are out unless another fringe team "OSU" wins in very impressive fashion. I have zero faith we can beat Wisky badly personally.
 
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FWIW, the best scenario for OSU at fivethirtyeight, is TCU winning, Clemson winning, Stanford and Auburn winning. That puts us at 80% which is the best computer scenario. Of course, with humans involved there will be biases involved.
 
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Bestbuck36 said:
I have to disagree. No merit at all giving props to a 3 loss team. UGA would get the nod and the other two look worse. If Auburn goes, Bama can say "well we lost to the SEC champ" yada yada. UGA winning thwarts the state of Alabama for the playoff. We're tied with Miami for #7 really, one point in AP and dead on in Coaches. As soon as someone with a real brain and any pull at all reminds everyone why they can't compare this years Bama with last years Ohio State, the argument will be over. Problem is, I dont know if anyone that matters really has the balls to do so.
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How do the other 2 look worse? Auburn beat Georgia by more than they beat Bama... but lose a rematch after an emotional rivalry week. Bama hasn't played Georgia. And the Committee is enamored with the SEC.
That leaves a LOT of confusion over who the best team in the SEC really is. Georgia as 1-loss Champ is guaranteed in.. but it will be with a huge asterisk, and very very very high probability they use the chaos to put Bama or Auburn in at 4.

ZEKE103 said:
If Auburn loses they are done, it does not matter, with 3 losses there is no chance they would get in no matter what at this point since the reg season games for those who matter are all over. If Auburn lost even other CCG losers with better record would be more deserving, like if Wisky loses, or OU, our Clemson/Miami loser. Then you have Bama, and the winners like OSU, Clemson/U winner, UGA, and even a team like USC.

If Auburn wins I am still not convinced Bama is out. unless OU, Clemson, and Wisky win. We all know Bama doesn't really deserve it, but it's not how it works unfortunately. if the committee doesn't drop Bama past 4 for this weeks rankings, I don't see any way they are out unless another fringe team "OSU" wins in very impressive fashion. I have zero faith we can beat Wisky badly personally.
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Auburn winning makes it a lot harder for Bama to get in. Then you have 1 Undisputed SEC Victor. They already beat Bama in last game of the season - and beat them soundly. They just beat Georgia for the 2nd time. There is no confusion whatsoever about who the best is from the SEC. And after the Bama-LSU NCG there's not a lot of demand for a rematch.
Georgia wins -- there's a lot of confusion over whose really the best. Bama is still a 1-loss team with several 2-loss Champs... and they haven't played Georgia. Committee will let them settle it on the field.
 
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kujirakira said:
Auburn winning makes it a lot harder for Bama to get in. Then you have 1 Undisputed SEC Victor. They already beat Bama in last game of the season - and beat them soundly. They just beat Georgia for the 2nd time. There is no confusion whatsoever about who the best is from the SEC. And after the Bama-LSU NCG there's not a lot of demand for a rematch.
Georgia wins -- there's a lot of confusion over whose really the best. Bama is still a 1-loss team with several 2-loss Champs... and they haven't played Georgia. Committee will let them settle it on the field.
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You can also make a case for Auburn winning it makes it easier for Bama to get in. Auburn has been on a tear, and if they beat UGA easily that will just make the Bama loss look more understandable. If UGA wins then Bama's loss looks even worse because it came to a team that finished with 3 losses on the year. They aren't trying to get the 4 best teams from each conference, they are trying to get the 4 best teams overall.

Let's assume OU wins, Auburn wins, Clemson wins, USC wins, and we win next week.

In my opinion then it would be 1- Clemson 2-OU 3- Auburn and 4 and 5 is a toss up between us and Bama with USC likely only reaching 6.

The committee has to way this : Pro's for Bama, only lost 1 game all year in last week of reg season to rival Auburn on road with a lot of hurt guys. Track record of being one of the most dominant teams in CFB last decade +. Ranked wins over LSU and MSU, and FSU (obv last 2 now arent impressive at all). Negative, no really great wins, didnt win or even play for conference title.

Pro's for OSU, nice wins vs highly ranked PSU, ranked MSU, pretty solid UM team on road, undefeated top 4 team Wisky, conference title. Bad, two losses, both big, one to a good team at our own house, one huge loss to a bad team on road.

To me it would depend on which comittee wants to focus on more, quality wins or bad losses, or conference title. What is more important to them this time around. You also cant completely ignore rankings the week prior.
 
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ZEKE103 said:
If UGA wins then Bama's loss looks even worse
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Doesn't hold water. For the 50th time... Auburn already beat Georgia 40-17. That's a curb stomping dude. They beat Bama 26-14.
Both Georgia and Bama have just 1 loss... both @Auburn. One lost by a lot worse than the other; neither was close.
But you want one to win a rematch against Auburn... all that does is raise the question of "Well what if Bama replayed them at a Neutral site?" and "Is Georgia or Alabama really better?" ... meanwhile, Alabama has that 1 quality loss. They haven't played.

If we beat Wisconsin or Stanford beats USC or TCU beats OU... and Georgia wins a SEC CG rematch. Alabama's spot is guaranteed. Book it.

If Auburn wins... what reason would there be at all to put Bama in? A rematch they just played ? Nobody wants to watch it again (see LSU-Bama NCG). Auburn has already been put "through the gauntlet". They beat Alabama convincingly. The Committee is obligated to put at least 1 2-loss team in (Auburn) ... opening the door for USC, Ohio State, TCU to join the party too.
 
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kujirakira said:
Doesn't hold water. For the 50th time... Auburn already beat Georgia 40-17. That's a curb stomping dude. They beat Bama 26-14.
Both Georgia and Bama have just 1 loss... both @Auburn. One lost by a lot worse than the other; neither was close.
But you want one to win a rematch against Auburn... all that does is raise the question of "Well what if Bama replayed them at a Neutral site?" and "Is Georgia or Alabama really better?" ... meanwhile, Alabama has that 1 quality loss. They haven't played.

If we beat Wisconsin or Stanford beats USC or TCU beats OU... and Georgia wins a SEC CG rematch. Alabama's spot is guaranteed. Book it.

If Auburn wins... what reason would there be at all to put Bama in? A rematch they just played ? Nobody wants to watch it again (see LSU-Bama NCG). Auburn has already been put "through the gauntlet". They beat Alabama convincingly. The Committee is obligated to put at least 1 2-loss team in (Auburn) ... opening the door for USC, Ohio State, TCU to join the party too.
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Pretty much Georgia getting blown out again is best case. The hypothetical between Georgia and Auburn is bad for us.
 
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kujirakira said:
Doesn't hold water. For the 50th time... Auburn already beat Georgia 40-17. That's a curb stomping dude. They beat Bama 26-14.
Both Georgia and Bama have just 1 loss... both @Auburn. One lost by a lot worse than the other; neither was close.
But you want one to win a rematch against Auburn... all that does is raise the question of "Well what if Bama replayed them at a Neutral site?" and "Is Georgia or Alabama really better?" ... meanwhile, Alabama has that 1 quality loss. They haven't played.

If we beat Wisconsin or Stanford beats USC or TCU beats OU... and Georgia wins a SEC CG rematch. Alabama's spot is guaranteed. Book it.

If Auburn wins... what reason would there be at all to put Bama in? A rematch they just played ? Nobody wants to watch it again (see LSU-Bama NCG). Auburn has already been put "through the gauntlet". They beat Alabama convincingly. The Committee is obligated to put at least 1 2-loss team in (Auburn) ... opening the door for USC, Ohio State, TCU to join the party too.
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Truthfully I don't think how Auburn vs UGA game goes makes any difference to Bama's chances. I think at the end of the day Bama is in or not depending on how the other games go most likely. If Auburn wins UGA is for sure out and Bama doesn't look any worse, if Auburn loses they are gone with 3 losses and Bama is still sitting there with UGA then a lock. Bama and Auburn wouldn't be rematching unless it was in the Final, Auburn is not reaching past 2 or 3 and Bama is not getting in higher than 4 unless a huge upset Saturday. So if they both won their games against their CFB opponent I believe whole heartedly CFB would love that rematch, neutral site for the NCG game, in a rivalry that only stands below OSU vs UM, between two teams that won their playoff game to get there. That is not the same thing as the 2009 season repeat and LSU and Bama aren't rivals like Auburn vs Bama.

The only good news is that if Auburn is still considered such a contender with 2 losses to the committee, we can as well with our 2 losses, even if not quite as of wins.
 
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Lol. The committee can’t come out and justify putting Bama in by saying “Well, they are Bama and they are usually really good. We know they have no CCG and 0 wins against top competition, but I mean, they’re Bama.”

They will have to justify their reasoning against the criteria: SoS, CCG, resume, etc.
 
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At this point, it is much better for Auburn to beat Georgia. I can't see any way that Alabama sneaks back in at that point because they just lost to Auburn in what was, for all intents and purposes, a playoff game. It also forces a 2 loss conference champ, making it easier for the committee to take us.
 
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Woody1968 said:
At this point, it is much better for Auburn to beat Georgia. I can't see any way that Alabama sneaks back in at that point because they just lost to Auburn in what was, for all intents and purposes, a playoff game. It also forces a 2 loss conference champ, making it easier for the committee to take us.
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Auburn has two losses already.
 
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