2015-16 Ohio State Quarterback Discussion

[Abenaki]

All you'd really have to do is subtract his last three games from the rest of the season to get this (he may have had a few carries in The Game after Barrett got hurt and Jones came in, but I'm too lazy to look those up). This would give you:

With Barrett: 197-1,182 (6.0 ypc)
With Jones: 76-696 (9.2 ypc)


Even if you take just the last four games of the regular season (with Barrett at QB) to account for the OL improvement and compare them to the three post-season games (with Jones at QB), there's still a big difference:

MSU, Minn, Ind, and scUM totals: 71-473 (6.7 ypc). I took the last four games of the regular season instead of the last three since his MSU game had to most yardage out of the four.

It's clear that Zeke was significantly more effective and dangerous with Jones at QB. Being on a bigger stage during the post-season could account for a half-yard or yard increase in ypc on its own, but jumping up a full two and a half yards per carry from your end-of-season average is more than that. Zeke busting out two 80+ yard TD runs with Jones at QB isn't coincidence...

Really the outliers are the Wisconsin and Alabama games. 6.8 ypc against Oregon doesn't really stick out vs. the rest of the season, the 36 carries do. In addition, the ypc against Wisky and Bama were hugely helped by the two 80+ yarders, without those he's right back in the mid-7 ypc range.

Neither of those long runs came against defenses that were scared of the deep ball either. Wisconsin had one safety about 10 yards deep and the other blitzing and press coverage. Alabama had two safeties about 12-14 yards off the ball and they both attacked toward the line of scrimmage at the snap. Personally, I think he was better against Wisky and Bama because they weren't as afraid of Cardale and there was no one deep once he cleared the first level, combined with more called runs instead of read option runs. Just my opinion, obviously.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Really the outliers are the Wisconsin and Alabama games. 6.8 ypc against Oregon doesn't really stick out vs. the rest of the season, the 36 carries do. In addition, the ypc against Wisky and Bama were hugely helped by the two 80+ yarders, without those he's right back in the mid-7 ypc range.

Still doesn't change the fact that the only times Zeke busted out those 80+ yard runs were when Jones was at QB. Zeke also had a 54-yard run against Alabama. You can't take out huge runs to justify an adjusted ypc. But, if you insist on doing so, Zeke ran 19 times for 139 yards (7.3 ypc) against Wiscy taking out his 81-yarder, and 19 times for 145 yards (7.6 ypc) against Alabama taking out his 85-yarder, both of which are still way above his regular-season average of exactly 6 ypc, as was his 6.8 ypc against Oregon despite carrying over twice as many times that game as he did during the regular season. Again, not a coincidence.

Neither of those long runs came against defenses that were scared of the deep ball either. Wisconsin had one safety about 10 yards deep and the other blitzing and press coverage. Alabama had two safeties about 12-14 yards off the ball and they both attacked toward the line of scrimmage at the snap. Personally, I think he was better against Wisky and Bama because they weren't as afraid of Cardale and there was no one deep once he cleared the first level, combined with more called runs instead of read option runs. Just my opinion, obviously.

See above. Also, saying Wiscy was not afraid of the deep ball is way off, because Devin Smith killed them with the deep ball and after the first deep TD, Wiscy was playing off for Smith the rest of the game (and it still didn't help).

 

[Abenaki]

Still doesn't change the fact that the only times Zeke busted out those 80+ yard runs were when Jones was at QB. Zeke also had a 54-yard run against Alabama. You can't take out huge runs to justify an adjusted ypc. But, if you insist on doing so, Zeke ran 19 times for 139 yards (7.3 ypc) against Wiscy taking out his 81-yarder, and 19 times for 145 yards (7.6 ypc) against Alabama taking out his 85-yarder, both of which are still way above his regular-season average of exactly 6 ypc, as was his 6.8 ypc against Oregon despite carrying over twice as many times that game as he did during the regular season. Again, not a coincidence.

He also had 47 against MSU, 65 against Indiana and 44 against Michigan, so the 54 yarder wasn't out of the ordinary for late season Zeke. I don't think it was a coincidence that his longest runs and biggest games came with Cardale at QB. I just don't believe it was the deep ball that caused it, against Wisconsin and Alabama anyway. Seriously, look at the defenses they were playing on those two plays.

Oregon I do think it affected because they saw it against Wisconsin and Alabama, so they played deep, which kept Zeke in front of them for the most part.

See above. Also, saying Wiscy was not afraid of the deep ball is way off, because Devin Smith killed them with the deep ball and after the first deep TD, Wiscy was playing off for Smith the rest of the game (and it still didn't help).

Look at the defense they were playing on the 81 yarder. Man coverage with a single safety 10 yards back. That's not a defense I call if my main concern is the deep ball. The corner on Smith was off 10 yards, but the out route he ran had more to do with taking the corner out of the play than the corner being afraid of getting beat deep. The 3rd corner (on Brown) and the other safety were both 5 yards off the ball when it was snapped.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

He also had 47 against MSU, 65 against Indiana and 44 against Michigan, so the 54 yarder wasn't out of the ordinary for late season Zeke.

Neither Indiana or Michigan had the rush defense that Alabama did. And MSU relatively contained Zeke outside of that 47-yarder (using your "take this rush out and..." argument), holding him to 4.9 ypc in his other 22 carries.

Look at the defense they were playing on the 81 yarder. Man coverage with a single safety 10 yards back. That's not a defense I call if my main concern is the deep ball. The corner on Smith was off 10 yards, but the out route he ran had more to do with taking the corner out of the play than the corner being afraid of getting beat deep. The 3rd corner (on Brown) and the other safety were both 5 yards off the ball when it was snapped.

You can analyze the shit out of each carry if you want, but the fact is that Elliot was considerably more effective during the three games when Jones was at QB. Even though Zeke did bust off the two 80-yarders because the defense was up to the line and once he broke through there was no deep help (the 54-yarder against Alabama was because he swung wide), he still ended up rushing better in those two games than he did during the regular season.

 

[Abenaki]

You can analyze the [Mark May] out of each carry if you want, but the fact is that Elliot was considerably more effective during the three games when Jones was at QB. Even though Zeke did bust off the two 80-yarders because the defense was up to the line and once he broke through there was no deep help (the 54-yarder against Alabama was because he swung wide), he still ended up rushing better in those two games than he did during the regular season.

We're not disagreeing at all on these points. Just the "why".

 

[woofermazing]

You have to give Eze some credit. He fixed some bad habits in the second half of the season that had been holding him back a bit. He ran with a lot of forward lean to get more power, but it left him off balance and easier to bring down with a sloppy tackle. His yards after contact went through the roof after he adopted a running stance with more balance.

There were a lot of big runs left on the field early on where defenders tackled him just by knocking him off balance.

 

[Woody1968]

He also had 47 against MSU, 65 against Indiana and 44 against Michigan, so the 54 yarder wasn't out of the ordinary for late season Zeke. I don't think it was a coincidence that his longest runs and biggest games came with Cardale at QB. I just don't believe it was the deep ball that caused it, against Wisconsin and Alabama anyway. Seriously, look at the defenses they were playing on those two plays.

Oregon I do think it affected because they saw it against Wisconsin and Alabama, so they played deep, which kept Zeke in front of them for the most part.


Look at the defense they were playing on the 81 yarder. Man coverage with a single safety 10 yards back. That's not a defense I call if my main concern is the deep ball. The corner on Smith was off 10 yards, but the out route he ran had more to do with taking the corner out of the play than the corner being afraid of getting beat deep. The 3rd corner (on Brown) and the other safety were both 5 yards off the ball when it was snapped.

Oregon's defense had much less room for error. Wisconsin and Alabama were supposedly strong against the run. Oregon's defense was more of a bend don't break style, that needed to have deeper safeties.

 

[cincibuck]

One nice thing about about snow days...
is that you can go back and watch a bunch of games from the last two seasons.
Conclusions: No question that Braxton was the most dangerous when running, but he often made mistakes and he didn't learn from them, i.e. twice, at critical points in the Michigan game, he fails to spot the corner coming up on the weak side and gets hammered. I went back through two other 2013 games and saw the same thing.

In the blush of the spectacular finish to the season it's hard to ignore Cardale's ability to throw deep - and Devin Smith's ability to get deep. I don't know about Urban, but I certainly underestimated Cardale's skill at the position.

But, watching the Michigan State, Minnesota and Michigan games it's obvious that JT is truly a student of the game. you just don't see him make the same mistake twice, and if his arm isn't quite the equal of Cardale's he still has the ability to throw the deep ball and he's extremely accurate.

Finally, what dawned on me as I watched was the possibility of losing: Miller, Jones, Barrett, Elliott, Thomas, Wilson, Marshall and Bosa at the end of next season. That's a ton of talent.

 

[jwinslow]

One nice thing about about snow days...
is that you can go back and watch a bunch of games from the last two seasons.
Conclusions: No question that Braxton was the most dangerous when running, but he often made mistakes and he didn't learn from them, i.e. twice, at critical points in the Michigan game, he fails to spot the corner coming up on the weak side and gets hammered. I went back through two other 2013 games and saw the same thing.

In the blush of the spectacular finish to the season it's hard to ignore Cardale's ability to throw deep - and Devin Smith's ability to get deep. I don't know about Urban, but I certainly underestimated Cardale's skill at the position.

But, watching the Michigan State, Minnesota and Michigan games it's obvious that JT is truly a student of the game. you just don't see him make the same mistake twice, and if his arm isn't quite the equal of Cardale's he still has the ability to throw the deep ball and he's extremely accurate.

Finally, what dawned on me as I watched was the possibility of losing: Miller, Jones, Barrett, Elliott, Thomas, Wilson, Marshall and Bosa at the end of next season. That's a ton of talent.

Miller, Elliott, Bosa, Vannett, Decker, Boren, Washington are absolutely gone. Thomas, Jones probably are. Lee, Apple could go but probably return.

Marshall can't leave next year and Wilson would be leaving to go undrafted. He's either second or third string depending on where Miller lines up.

Barrett is not leaving. He lacks an nfl arm and is probably not starting next fall as well as having injury concerns. The only way he's not here next fall is if Jones locks up the job and doesn't go pro afterwards (unlikely )

 

[cincibuck]

Miller, Elliott, Bosa, Vannett, Decker, Boren, Washington are absolutely gone. Thomas, Jones probably are. Lee, Apple could go but probably return.

Marshall can't leave next year and Wilson would be leaving to go undrafted. He's either second or third string depending on where Miller lines up.

Barrett is not leaving. He lacks an nfl arm and is probably not starting next fall as well as having injury concerns. The only way he's not here next fall is if Jones locks up the job and doesn't go pro afterwards (unlikely )

Didn't Marshall red shirt his freshman year? Next year would be his third year then wouldn't it?

 

[OHSportsFan]

Didn't Marshall red shirt his freshman year? Next year would be his third year then wouldn't it?

Yep, Marshall could go (Redshirt, played this past year, next year is 3 out of HS). Don't see it as a remote possibility, however.

Still, as you mentioned that is a ton talent leaving. I know Meyer is reloading, but that's trading unknowns (highly rated as they are) for some great proven talent. Always a fun ride. Ready to enjoy 2015 for now.

 

[jwinslow]

Bah, you're right but it's not very likely.

 

[MoCoBuck]

 

[pianobuck46]

Yep, Marshall could go (Redshirt, played this past year, next year is 3 out of HS). Don't see it as a remote possibility, however.

Still, as you mentioned that is a ton talent leaving. I know Meyer is reloading, but that's trading unknowns (highly rated as they are) for some great proven talent. Always a fun ride. Ready to enjoy 2015 for now.

Yep, you're right. It's only fair to point out, however, that there was a time when we didn't know the talent that's leaving after next season either. But, what the hell...2016's a long ways off, and the 2015 season can't get here fast enough.

GO BUCKS!!!!!

 

[TampaBuckeyes]

Yep, Marshall could go (Redshirt, played this past year, next year is 3 out of HS). Don't see it as a remote possibility, however.

Still, as you mentioned that is a ton talent leaving. I know Meyer is reloading, but that's trading unknowns (highly rated as they are) for some great proven talent. Always a fun ride. Ready to enjoy 2015 for now.

2016 will likely not be our year. We will be losing a freaking ton of 1-3 round talent. Recruiting is going great but that leads to more kids leaving as juniors and next year will really be the start of it.