2013 Preseason and regular polls

[UpNorth_Buckeye]

Like I said, their computer score will likely be #3 ahead of both us and Baylor.
That works in our favor if Baylor jumps us.

computers
Stanford
Ohio State
Baylor

polls
Baylor
Ohio State
Stanford

We end up #3 as they split 3/5. I feel like I'm repeating myself here...

You're right, only Baylor would move ahead of us in the polls. But Stanford would likely retain the same number of votes regardless of what Baylor does since Baylors increase would be directly tied to our decrease (voters who had OSU 3, Baylor 4, Stanford 5 switching to Baylor 3, OSU 4, Stanford 5). Using that logic Stanford's poll rating would stay nearly identical to where it currently is. But their CPU ratings would increase.

In fact Baylor losing would separate us and Stanford even more since we would separate ourselves in the polls even more (voters who currently have Baylor 3, OSU 4, Stanford 5 would switch to OSU 3, Stanford 4, XXXXXX 5). I'm not sure how much Stanford losing would help us in the CPU but wouldn't do much in the polls.

I know it's a crazy concept and all, but we could lose ground in both the polls and CPU.

 

[kujirakira]

You're right, only Baylor would move ahead of us in the polls. But Stanford would likely retain the same number of votes regardless of what Baylor does since Baylors increase would be directly tied to our decrease (voters who had OSU 3, Baylor 4, Stanford 5 switching to Baylor 3, OSU 4, Stanford 5). Using that logic Stanford's poll rating would stay nearly identical to where it currently is. But their CPU ratings would increase.

In fact Baylor losing would separate us and Stanford even more since we would separate ourselves in the polls even more (voters who currently have Baylor 3, OSU 4, Stanford 5 would switch to OSU 3, Stanford 4, XXXXXX 5). I'm not sure how much Stanford losing would help us in the CPU but wouldn't do much in the polls.

I know it's a crazy concept and all, but we could lose ground in both the polls and CPU.

Yes but this fails to take into account how the BCS uses polls vs. how the BCS uses CPU. The CPU is only 1/3rd... it's not enough for Stanford to go ahead of us.
Moreover, the polls count towards BCS by vote... not by place. If Baylor were #3, it'd be by the slimmest of margins and the computers would easily correct it. Particularly since Stanford would be lower their value in the CPUs by default.
In the reverse situation, the CPUs just won't be enough to jump Stanford 2 places. The CPUs also count "by vote", but since only 5 votes are counted it makes for a very discrete value system. 0.04 = 1 place difference in the BCS computers.
That's why say, if anything, we may actually need Baylor to win out to hold Stanford off. As it stands now I think almost everyone will split #3 between us and Baylor; but if Baylor fell the ESPiN media machine would start pushing Stanford and we might split #3 70/30 .... and that could be enough for the computers to jump them ahead of us in the final standings.

 

[Systems_id]

I love how Herbstreit brought up the fact that the B1G needs to start winning their bowl games. Last I checked the B1G was 12-14 in BCS Games. Meanwhile, the ACC is an impressive 3-13, one of those wins being against friggin' Northern Illinois. The media darlings this year, Florida State, is 2-5 in BCS bowls with one of those wins coming from *drumroll* Northern Illinois!

 

[UpNorth_Buckeye]

Yes but this fails to take into account how the BCS uses polls vs. how the BCS uses CPU. The CPU is only 1/3rd... it's not enough for Stanford to go ahead of us.
Moreover, the polls count towards BCS by vote... not by place. If Baylor were #3, it'd be by the slimmest of margins and the computers would easily correct it. Particularly since Stanford would be lower their value in the CPUs by default.
In the reverse situation, the CPUs just won't be enough to jump Stanford 2 places. The CPUs also count "by vote", but since only 5 votes are counted it makes for a very discrete value system. 0.04 = 1 place difference in the BCS computers.
That's why say, if anything, we may actually need Baylor to win out to hold Stanford off. As it stands now I think almost everyone will split #3 between us and Baylor; but if Baylor fell the ESPiN media machine would start pushing Stanford and we might split #3 70/30 .... and that could be enough for the computers to jump them ahead of us in the final standings.

You very well could be right, and hopefully we never have to find out, but let's say for example the CPU's have a consensus at the end of the year that Stanford is #3, Baylor is #4, and OSU is #5. Additionally let's say hypothetically the polls have us and Baylor flip in percentages with Stanford staying the same. That is really not that far fetched, and under that scenario we are #5.

. . . . . Harris . USA . CPU . Total . Average
OSU 0.8777 0.8877 0.84 2.6054 0.868467
Baylor 0.904 0.9039 0.88 2.6879 0.895967
Stanford 0.8533 0.8432 0.92 2.6165 0.872167

Again, the concept of Stanford jumping two spots is not merely from the CPU, but a combination of them increasing in the CPU's AND us decreasing in the polls (due to Baylor eating some of our votes).

 

[kujirakira]

True, in that scenario we're #5 ... but I think, assuming we beat a 1-loss MSU in Indianapolis, it's near impossible that we'd be behind Baylor in the Computers. We'd be pushing Stanford at #3 (similar to now where we've got one 3rd place computer vote)

Baylor's schedule looks decent going out... but consider that they were rated #9 in the computers prior to beating OU (7-2).
They have TT (7-3) OkSt (8-1) TCU (4-6) and Texas (7-2) left. OkSt still hasn't played OU or Texas. Texas still has Texas Tech. 4 of the top-5 still haven't played their part of the round robin, causing all of them to be over-rated in the computers. After all those round robins, it's unlikely any of them will be worth as much as MSU or Wisconsin.
And as sub-par as our OOC schedule turned out this year, Baylor scheduling Monroe and Wofford make us look like world-beaters.

What I'm really waiting for is somebody... somewhere... to step up to bat for us in the media. Our schedule may be "easy", but at least we made the effort to put together a good schedule. We can't control Vandy being pussies and getting stuck with SDSU. Or that Cal is atrocious this year. Baylor made 0 effort while playing in a conference that is even weaker than the Big. They made a conscious decision to schedule the weakest possible opponents they could find.
At the same time, I'd love somebody to point out how under-rated the Big is. MSU and Wisconsin in particular. It says a lot that the computers, which can't cut Wiscy any slack for the sham in the desert, rate Wisconsin higher than the human polls. And MSU is the lowest-rated 1-loss team in the country. I mean, honestly, how is Louisville rated 13/14 ? Oklahoma St. 10/11 ?? UCLA 15/16 ?
But the fact seems to be that the Big has no reps in the media for whatever reason. I'm guessing out of monetary interest since all the conferences have signed deals with whatever network, it's now become a game of backing whoever they're showing.

 

[BUCKYLE]

That's why Delaney needs to send a fucking memo to ESPN reminding them our tv contract is up for renewal soon and to quit dicking around. Maybe something in a p.s. about the fact that the bowls whole reason for existing was to get B1G fans and their money to fill up their stadiums once a fucking year. P.p.s., tOSU v a PSU team that was at its lowest in living memory being the highest rated CFB game of the year, even tho it was a plungering of epic proportion.

 

[BUCKYLE]

Oh, fuck espn but for sone reason i subjected myself to the bcs show for a bit and Rece Davis said the B1G was underrated and that a win over wisky was being under sold and a hypothetical win over MSU would carry at least as much weight as beating Clemson

 

[Mariotwins]

Oh, fuck espn but for sone reason i subjected myself to the bcs show for a bit and Rece Davis said the B1G was underrated and that a win over wisky was being under sold and a hypothetical win over MSU would carry at least as much weight as beating Clemson

I'm confused. How could you give the same weight to a victory over MSU as a victory over a team that beat the might UGA

 

[UpNorth_Buckeye]

I wonder what would happen if we take care of business (which needs to be kicking ass, not just winning in general), and FSU wins but by a small margin at Florida (I don't know why, and I SHOULDN'T have any faith in them but I see Florida keeping it closer than they should especially if they're 5-6 going into the game), if the voters would have the balls to jump us up to #2. Especially after the championship games if we face MSU and they play Duke. I doubt it though...

 

[Buckeye86]

Is it enjoyable to worry/speculate about all of these things?

Maybe I'm just getting old, but I am perfectly happy watching what happens while spending zero time and energy worrying about what might happen.

 

[HorseshoeFetish]

That's why Delaney needs to send a fucking memo to ESPN reminding them our tv contract is up for renewal soon and to quit dicking around. Maybe something in a p.s. about the fact that the bowls whole reason for existing was to get B1G fans and their money to fill up their stadiums once a fucking year. P.p.s., tOSU v a PSU team that was at its lowest in living memory being the highest rated CFB game of the year, even tho it was a plungering of epic proportion.

I pumpkin love shows about urban plumbers!

 

[Dryden]

I wonder what would happen if we take care of business (which needs to be kicking ass, not just winning in general), and FSU wins but by a small margin at Florida (I don't know why, and I SHOULDN'T have any faith in them but I see Florida keeping it closer than they should especially if they're 5-6 going into the game), if the voters would have the balls to jump us up to #2. Especially after the championship games if we face MSU and they play Duke. I doubt it though...

Florida St has beaten every opponent they've faced this season by 14 pts or more. Only two teams in the last two decades have done that: 2004 Utah and 1995 Nebraska. The Seminoles are not going to lose to this years Florida team. FSU is going to blow UFs doors off.

 

[UpNorth_Buckeye]

Florida St has beaten every opponent they've faced this season by 14 pts or more. Only two teams in the last two decades have done that: 2004 Utah and 1995 Nebraska. The Seminoles are not going to lose to this years Florida team. FSU is going to blow UFs doors off.

Agreed, I don't see them losing. Just have a feeling it will be closer than expected. But the only way that happens is if they don't turn the ball over, which is probably very wishful thinking.

 

[MaxBuck]

I object. Just because I'm not buying into the FSU hype doesn't mean I can't be objective.

I'm not objective. I'm a Buckeye fan.

Kyle, you've made my point, really. Fans aren't supposed to be objective.

With that said, there's a lot more to FSU than hype. They've been a turducken steamroller, and their win over an excellent Clemson team was very impressive.

I actually think the Buckeyes would have a great shot against either Bama or FSU, but I also recognize that those teams have valid claims on spots in the NC game. (I'm not saying the Buckeyes don't, too.)

 

[Zurp]

if the voters would have the balls to jump us up to #2.

No chance. You might get a couple of "rogue voters" make that jump in their polls, maybe even some who rank Ohio State #1. But they would be too few to change the BCS ranks.