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2010 polls - Pre-season and regular

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Tlangs;1807146; said:
ok....i just have to post again. This Okie State computer deal is [censored]ing me off. They are number 6 in the [censored]ing computers with non conf wins over 1-9 washington state, a 3 point win over sun belt powerhouse Troy, Louisiana Lafayete, and Tulsa.

are you [censored]ing kidding me....somehow this team is 6 and we are 15. It makes no sense.


Honestly, on paper, our shedules seem to match up pretty close. Loss to a top 10 team (nebraska and wisky) and 1 decent win (Baylor and Miami).....yet one team is bending over while the other is getting a BJ from the prom queen.
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GPA.
 
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http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footba...Aq6y6FkGfsT993acVN3lSqUcvrYF?urn=ncaaf-283192
Fun fact of the week. Alabama's average computer rank is 11th after Saturday's loss at LSU, up from 15th before the defeat.
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The logic of the computers gets summed up right there. Its SOS first and foremost, then the actual performance on the field. I am certain that Vanderbilt gets highly rated in the computers by playing all the juggernaut SEC teams and what not.

Also somewhat interesting, Jeff Sagarin's poll ideally would rate using margin of victory (along with other statistical tools) for the formula. His non-BCS formula (he has 2 versions, one is watered down for the BCS) is highly regarded and a good general predictor. Ohio State is #6 in that formula, #13 in the mix between the 2 versions and #18 in the BCS version.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm
 
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Eastern Michigan, Marshall, Ohio, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Miami - not a lot there to impress the voters or computers, unfortunately.

Wisconsin beat us and they have a win over Iowa, so why are some folks perplexed that they are ahead of us in the polls AND computers when we have the same record? They should be ahead of us at this point.

Thanks to "The U" losing to teams like Virginia our marquee OOC win isn't all that and the BT teams we've beaten to date are mostly bottom feeders, so why would we be ahead of LSU (or Alabama for that matter)? Their schedules have been far tougher to date.

It is what it is as of today. We have three weeks left to do something about it.
 
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1 Auburn - 10-0 5.50
2 TCU - 10-0 4.40
3 Oregon - 9-0 3.56
4 LSU - 8-1 (loss to #1) 5.13
5 Boise - 8-0 4.00
6 Stan - 8-1 (loss to #3) 4.00
6 Neb - 8-1 (loss to # 12) 4.75
6 Ok St - 8-1 (loss to #6) 4.75
9 MSU - 9-1 (loss to #14) 4.22
10 Wisc - 8-1 (loss to #9) 3.50
11 Ala - 7-2 (loss to #4, #26) 4.29
12 Mizz - 7-2 (loss to #6, Unranked) 5.43
13 Utah - 8-1 (loss to #2) 3.00
14 Iowa - 7-2 (loss to #10, #17) 5.14
15 OSU - 8-1 (loss to #10) 3.88
16 Okla - 7-2 (loss to #12, Unranked) 4.29
17 Ark - 7-2 (loss to #1, #11) 4.43
17 Ariz - 7-2 (loss to #6, Unranked) 4.00
19 Miss St - 7-2 (loss to #1, #4) 4.29
20 Kan St - 6-3 (loss to #6, #6, Unranked)4.50


Ok again I went thru the comps ranks and did a breakdown. Record, who they lost to in comp avg, and strength of wins avg(teams they have beat wins added together and divided by wins) ex- Aub 55 wins total of teams they have beat divided by wins = 5.50 per game. Things again are fairly correct per those 3 categories. Exceptions, OSU above 2 loss teams and Utah, Ala in general way too high(SEC bias possibly), but then Ark and Miss St too low in comparison. Eye catcher- Oregon has played a thourghly weak schedule thus far only better than Wisky and Utah (Oreg-3.56, Wisky-3.50, Utah-3.00)

OSU will get a good boost with possible win totals at this point of 6/7/6= 19 divided by 3= avg going forward of 6.33 and that is if PSU, Iowa, and scUM lose out. Add that to possible wins of teams already beaten. Wisky has a possible going forward win total of 5.33, Stan = 4.33, Neb = 4, LSU = 5, Ok St = 4.66, MSU = 5, Utah = 5. So of the 1 loss teams going forward OSU has the best collective win gain. Undefeated Non Aq's? TCU = 4, Boise = 5.25. Could gain large chunks on them too in the comps(expected)

Win out, win big for the voters, and the comps will come around. We are looking good in the human polls, it is the comps that are hurting us. Need to root hard for Ohio, Ill, Cryami, Marshall, Purdue, and EMU to build SOS and the avg.(big ten teams mentioned play teams that OSU hasn't). It can still shake out right. If teams in human polls lose in front of Bucks they drop from in front of us in comps later in the season.(big pushes). The Stanford win shows that OSU would get love from a big win over Iowa especially with that game being at Kinnick(Stanford was at home, very similar ranks).
 
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Jake;1807185; said:
Eastern Michigan, Marshall, Ohio, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Miami - not a lot there to impress the voters or computers, unfortunately.

Wisconsin beat us and they have a win over Iowa, so why are some folks perplexed that they are ahead of us in the polls AND computers when we have the same record? They should be ahead of us at this point.

Thanks to "The U" losing to teams like Virginia our marquee OOC win isn't all that and the BT teams we've beaten to date are mostly bottom feeders, so why would we be ahead of LSU (or Alabama for that matter)? Their schedules have been far tougher to date.

It is what it is as of today. We have three weeks left to do something about it.
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I don't think anyone is saying we should be ahead of LSU or Wisky at this point. Just that it is possible to jump Wisky by year end. Alabama being ahead of us the computers is a joke. They lost twice, end of story. They have 2 quality wins (Florida and Arkansas). They have 1 "quality loss" to LSU and a somewhat bad loss to South Carolina.

It seems to me that in the computers, SOS trumps L's which is what we are disagreeing with.
 
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Winning out against PSU (6-3), Iowa (7-2) and tsun (6-3) will certainly help in the computers but I think there is a ceiling for Ohio State. They're probably not going to move past LSU if the tigers win out. I keep hearing tOSU won't move past Wiscy because of head-to-head and normally I would buy that but MSU is behind Wiscy in the polls and comps...so it is possible however doubtful IMO.

The SOS is killing Ohio State right now and the next three weeks still might not be enough to jump the teams ahead them if they win out too. I just think they're too far behind and others need to lose again. They just need to jump Wiscy to get the Rose Bowl and at first glance it might seem like a no-brainer that they will but...well it is the BcS so things are usually fucked up.

Here's the remaining schedules for the 3 teams directly in front of tOSU:

Wiscy plays: Indiana(4-5) tsun(6-3) Northwestern(6-3)

Stanford plays: AZ St(4-5) Cal(5-4) Oregon St(4-4)

Nebraska plays: Kansas(3-6) Texas A&M(6-3) Colorado(3-6) BIG12 CCG

Winning impressively might put tOSU ahead of all three but ahead of Wiscy is the point.
 
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Just for fun I re-calculated the BCS rankings replacing the current Computer average with Sagrins predictor model which includes MOV (using current Human Poll numbers).


Winners:
OSU up 2
Alabma up 2
Va Tech up 3

Big 12 were losers (surprise surprise):
Nebraska drops 1
Okie State drops 2
Mizzou drops 3
Florida also drops 2

Ohio State is above Wisky using this model and TCU jumps Auburn.
 

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TS10HTW;1807227; said:
Winning impressively might put tOSU ahead of all three but ahead of Wiscy is the point.
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This may be considered blasphemy....

do we really want to jump Wisky and play TCU or Boise in the Rose (assuming Auburn and Oregon win out)?

Send Wisky to beat up on them and we could get a shot at LSU or Nebraska
 
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Tlangs;1807252; said:
This may be considered blasphemy....

do we really want to jump Wisky and play TCU or Boise in the Rose (assuming Auburn and Oregon win out)?

Send Wisky to beat up on them and we could get a shot at LSU or Nebraska
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While driving last week I heard one of the talk shows I listen to (either XM or maybe Hooley/Speilman podcast) say that a Buckeye vs TCU/Boise is a no win situation. Win and its a "supposed to win" scenario or lose and that sends tOSU back to 2006/2007 type disrespect.

Right now, I think I would rather play an SEC team in the Sugar than TCU/Boise in the Rose. Or have a bunch of mayhem and play in the NC versus anyone.
 
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So, moving forward....


  • Ohio State needs to win big all three games for style points.
  • Rooting against Wiscy--should they lose, it's alright to go ahead and root for a Sparty loss too if an undisputed Big Ten championship is most important; if 2 Big Ten teams in the BCS is preferable, then continue to root for Sparty the rest of the way.
  • We're rooting for Miami in the rest of their games--and all their opponents except Virginia Tech.
  • We're rooting for Iowa to beat Northwestern (computers: non-common opponent with Wiscy) and Minnesota (voters: want our Iowa win to be viewed as well as possible)
  • We're rooting against Wiscy's non-common opponents other than Sparty: UNLV, San Jose State, Arizona State, Austin Peay, Northwestern.
  • Aside from rooting against the teams themselves, we're rooting agains the opponents of Boise, TCU, LSU, Stanford, Nebraska.
  • Michigan State needs to win out (can't risk a two-way tie which Wiscy which makes head to head the primary tie breaker).
  • Penn State needs to beat Indiana and lose to Sparty
 
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fanaticbuckeye;1807263; said:
While driving last week I heard one of the talk shows I listen to (either XM or maybe Hooley/Speilman podcast) say that a Buckeye vs TCU/Boise is a no win situation. Win and its a "supposed to win" scenario or lose and that sends tOSU back to 2006/2007 type disrespect.

Right now, I think I would rather play an SEC team in the Sugar than TCU/Boise in the Rose. Or have a bunch of mayhem and play in the NC versus anyone.
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First choice is playing Stanford in a classic Big Ten-Pac 10 Rose Bowl. Second choice is curb stomping Boise in the Rose Bowl. I'd love to the be the team that shuts them TFU, ends their little "story" for good and sends them scurrying back to the rock of irrelevance they crawled out from under.
 
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A supposed "quality win" for both Boise and TCU is Oregon State.

TCU beat the 4-5 Beavers by 9 points.

Boise beat the 4-5 Beavers by 13 points.

Washington State, 2-9, just beat the Beavers by 17 points.

I've had enough of the TCU and Boise hype. :roll1:
 
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So TCU is a top five team and a national title contender. Really?

Their big home wins are over 4-5 Oregon State and perennial power Baylor. Their big road win is over Utah, who lost by 25 points to Notre Dame.

They shut out Wyoming and Colorado State. Whoop-de-freakin-do!

I'm really impressed by their home escape today over powerhouse San Diego State.

TCU being considered a contender for the BCS title makes them a poster child for a playoff. The media/voters are buying their own bullshit this season.
 
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