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2010 polls - Pre-season and regular

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Tlangs said:
I have said it every week. What is up with the Big 12 love in the puters. Okie State at #6 and two loss Mizzou at #11 (Wisky is #12 and OSU #13)


Okie State's best win is Baylor ranked #21 at that time (now a 4 loss team)
Wisconsin's best win is Ohio State ranked #1 at that time (still a 1 loss team)


Neither team beat anyone in the nonconfrence. Yet Okie State is 6 and Wisky is 12. This is the most bizzare thing I have ever seen.

Lets throw Stanford in the mix as well. They are #5 in the computers.
Their best win was against Arizona, ranked 15 at that time (now a 3 loss team). They got pummeled by Oregon.How on god's green earth is Stanford and Okie State 5 and 6, while Wisky and OSU are 12 and 13.


(i forgot to mention that a 2 loss Alabama is sitting pretty at 9 in the 'puters and we are tied for #13 with a 2 loss Arkansas team)
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The computers have a massive boner for the Big 12 overall, not just the highest ranked teams of course, but the whole conference. The fact that the computers have respect for the mediocre teams such as Texas, and Iowa State over the last few weeks has kept the top team's rankings, high.

I've been meaning to look at it more closely, but I'm pretty sure of 2 things that have helped the Big 12 they didn't have one conference team with a losing Out of conference record and the only BCS league with a winning record vs other BCS conference. I'm sure about point #1 not about #2. They may though have the best record. The more I look into the computers though the more I dislike them.
 
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Guys, the issue is SOS, as measured by the BCS formula. It's who you play and who they play. It's whether they win or lose and their opponents win and lose. Those Twinkies hurt Ohio State badly this year. Baylor and Okie State get lucky.

Take the margin of victory into account and its a different story, but unfortunately that isn't the BCS model.

It is unfortunate but it got us into our last NC game. This year, it looks like we are getting the other side of that one. It is really disappointing.
 
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I compared the OOC records for the Big six conferences. The PAC 10 does lead the way with a 10-4 record vs other AQ conferences (including Notre Dame) with the Big 12 coming in second at 9-4. These are followed by the SEC at 7-5, Big 10 at 7-4, ACC at 3-10, and the Big East at 2-11).

After looking at the numbers the 9 game conference schedule puts the PAC 10 in a quandry. With the extra gauranteed 5 losses it makes the higher rankings tough. Then they all play tough out of conference schedules. Put it this way.

% of AQ out of conference games
Pac 10 48%
Big East 33%
ACC 29%
Big 12 27%
Big 10 27%
SEC 23%

Conversely
% of FCS OOC games
ACC 27.1% (13 of 48)
SEC 22.9% (11 of 48)
Big 10 22.7%(10 of 44)
Big East 22.5% (9 of 40)
Pac 10 20.0% (6 of 30)
Big 12 16.7% (8 of 48)

The Pac 10's out of conference AQ losses were Washington to Nebraska, Washington St to Oklahoma St, Arizona St to Wisconsin, and UCLA to Kansas St. That's three one-loss teams and bowl eligible Kansas St. Also those are all the worst PAC 10 teams.

Because of the nice AQ out of conference records and the lack of FCS games beating an oppenent inside the conference of the Big 12 or Pac 10 is much better than a win inside the other conferences.
 
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Steve19;1811977; said:
It is unfortunate but it got us into our last NC game. This year, it looks like we are getting the other side of that one. It is really disappointing.
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It didn't help or hurt us in 2002 because we were undefeated and Miami was the only other undefeated team. If there were 3 undefeated teams, it may have been the difference between us as #2 or #3.
 
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bucknut502;1811741; said:
I don't understand how we are still ranked below Nebraska in the BCS? Their lone loss was to a 4-6 team and ours was to the #7 team in the country...Confusing
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We have a "better loss" than Nebraska but we don't have any signature win at this point. None of the teams we've beaten are any good. Iowa would be our best win and even that is now a bit tarnished with them losing to NW.
 
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t_BuckeyeScott;1812036; said:
I compared the OOC records for the Big six conferences. The PAC 10 does lead the way with a 10-4 record vs other AQ conferences (including Notre Dame) with the Big 12 coming in second at 9-4. These are followed by the SEC at 7-5, Big 10 at 7-4, ACC at 3-10, and the Big East at 2-11).

After looking at the numbers the 9 game conference schedule puts the PAC 10 in a quandry. With the extra gauranteed 5 losses it makes the higher rankings tough. Then they all play tough out of conference schedules. Put it this way.

% of AQ out of conference games
Pac 10 48%
Big East 33%
ACC 29%
Big 12 27%
Big 10 27%
SEC 23%

Conversely
% of FCS OOC games
ACC 27.1% (13 of 48)
SEC 22.9% (11 of 48)
Big 10 22.7%(10 of 44)
Big East 22.5% (9 of 40)
Pac 10 20.0% (6 of 30)
Big 12 16.7% (8 of 48)

The Pac 10's out of conference AQ losses were Washington to Nebraska, Washington St to Oklahoma St, Arizona St to Wisconsin, and UCLA to Kansas St. That's three one-loss teams and bowl eligible Kansas St. Also those are all the worst PAC 10 teams.

Because of the nice AQ out of conference records and the lack of FCS games beating an oppenent inside the conference of the Big 12 or Pac 10 is much better than a win inside the other conferences.
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This data really surprises me. Living in Pac10 country, I have to admit that I'm not at all impressed with any team sans Oregon (and even that is sketchy on any given weekend). Going down the list:

Wazzou - Sucks
UDub - Sucks
Oregon - Very Good
Oregon State - Sucks
Cal - Average to below average.
Stanford - Average to slightly above.
USC - Average at best.
UCLA - Sucks
Arizona State - Sucks
Arizona - Average

Three teams in the top 25 with Arizona barely clinging. Just doesn't make for much to me.
 
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muffler dragon said:
This data really surprises me. Living in Pac10 country, I have to admit that I'm not at all impressed with any team sans Oregon (and even that is sketchy on any given weekend). Going down the list:

Wazzou - Sucks
UDub - Sucks
Oregon - Very Good
Oregon State - Sucks
Cal - Average to below average.
Stanford - Average to slightly above.
USC - Average at best.
UCLA - Sucks
Arizona State - Sucks
Arizona - Average

Three teams in the top 25 with Arizona barely clinging. Just doesn't make for much to me.
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You and I, my friend, have eyes. I think the same can be said for Big 12. I'm not impressed with anything from that conference yet the computers have the Big 12 as the #1 conference and the PAC 10 as the 2nd best. The more I look at the computers the more I dislike them.

We'll see during bowl season.
 
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This whole argument is the reason that preseason polls are idiotic. How do you rank a team when you haven't seen them play a single game? (Florida/Texas/Georgia) At least let them play out 25-30 percent of their schedule to show a good cross section of a team. It would get rid of teams playing cupcakes early because they would want the risk/reward of beating better teams to push them up high. Then you can decipher the comps better. (If you are going to keep this idiotic system)
 
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Steve19;1817245; said:
Buckeyes #7 just a few votes ahead of Stanford in the Coaches Poll. link
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5. Wisc 1,211 pts
6. LSU. 1,175 pts
7. OSU 1,116 pts

Had LSU not comeback yesterday, I think today's poll would have been very interesting, and at least allowed for a discussion about OSU getting into striking distance of Wisky.
 
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jwinslow;1817247; said:
5. Wisc 1,211 pts
6. LSU. 1,175 pts
7. OSU 1,116 pts

Had LSU not comeback yesterday, I think today's poll would have been very interesting, and at least allowed for a discussion about OSU getting into striking distance of Wisky.
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With Stanford getting a dominant victory over Cal, they nearly overtook Ohio State.

That said, I think that Ohio State be one position higher in the BCS than would be expected just due to Nebraska's loss this week. Our SOS increased a bit and, from the computers I can see so far, it looks like a big increase (e.g., Sagarin ELO from #18 to #11).

There's still a lot of football left. LSU could lose. Even a close game from LSU or big hits to their SOS and Ohio State could leap them with a victory against TSUN.

It looks pretty clear that a win against TSUN will mean another BCS bowl, even if it isn't the one we all hoped for!
 
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Just imagine how much fun Friday would be if Auburn, Oregon and Boise all go down, in back to back to back games. Not bloody likely, but it sure would be fun watching the talking heads go into shock on live TV. :eek:
 
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In light of today's festivities I might have to root for Auburn and Oregon to get to the NC game. That could open the door to a possible date with Boise (or TCU). :sneaky:
 
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There's been a debate over at TigerDroppings about the Boise State/TCU thing and a TCU poster has been overbearing in his assertion that teams like Ohio State won't take a game with TCU. An Ohio State poster did a little research and came up with this gem. It seems that it is TCU that doesn't want to play the big boys of college football in OOC games now.

Here you go: LINK

quote:
November 15, 2009, 11:30PM

-- Doug LesmerisesCOLUMBUS, Ohio -- Ohio State's win Saturday sent the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl. If their schedule this season had worked out differently, the Buckeyes' win may also have sent Texas Christian to the national title game.

In late December of 2007, Ohio State said it had reached a deal to open the 2009 season at home against TCU. Army had recently backed out of a planned series, and the Horned Frogs, coming off an 8-5 season, were set for a one-game trip to Columbus. According to Ohio State, the game had been agreed to but the contract wasn't yet signed.
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quote:
"I'd say Ohio State really wanted it," TCU associate athletic director Jack Hesselbrock, who handles the Horned Frogs' football scheduling, said last week. "They had an opening and needed an opponent, and I think the fans would have liked it and been intrigued by it."

Hesselbrock said TCU was about 50-50 on taking the game, but certainly talked it over. There were some logistical problems. Virginia was already scheduled for the season opener and according to Hesselbrock, it would not have been easy to shift that game. Also, with TCU's growing success, the Horned Frogs were looking to get away from taking paydays to serve as opponents for BCS schools, as they did with losses to Texas in 2007 and Oklahoma in 2008.

So while they liked the idea of playing Ohio State for the first time since 1973, the program was hoping to move beyond that.

"And Ohio State was not interested in a return here for obvious reasons," Hesselbrock said.
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