2009 Polls - Regular and Pre-Season

[Mike80]

I've read your posts. I don't get it...who the fuck cares what your ranking is...it's all just bullshit along with the whining about where we stand. Let's fucking beat Purdue...Minnie,NMST, Penn St, Iowa, Michigan and fuck the polls. If we win out, we should play in the Rose Bowl and we should be damn happy about it and shouldn't give a ratshit about the polls.

No one forces you to read the threads Francis. Lighten the fuck up already.

 

[matcar]

No one forces you to read the threads Francis. Lighten the [censored] up already.

No one forces you to read the polls and forcast about them either young man. Listen to your elders, you may learn something. Unti then, perhaps you can lay off the Lays and lighten up a bit yourself.

 

[BuckeyeTillIDie]

That whole UC thing was short lived, eh?

 

[PlanetFrnd]

I couldn't care less if you think we're worthy. If the cards fall in the right way, Bucks get to the BCS title game. Win = Championship.

 

[Mike80]

No one forces you to read the polls and forcast about them either young man. Listen to your elders, you may learn something. Unti then, perhaps you can lay off the Lays and lighten up a bit yourself.

Change your avatar to this:

 

[Mike80]

That whole UC thing was short lived, eh?

Maybe. Since they were off I'm kind of amazed that OHio State jumped them honestly. If they beat South Florida no matter what Ohio state does to Purdidn't, I think it likely they will jump up again.

[quote='BusNative;156488;3]I couldn't care less if you think we're worthy. If the cards fall in the right way, Bucks get to the BCS title game. Win = Championship.[/quote]

True

 

[starBUCKS]

Maybe. Since they were off I'm kind of amazed that OHio State jumped them honestly. If they beat South Florida no matter what Ohio state does to Purdidn't, I think it likely they will jump up again.



True

I don't know about that. It's subjective... but I think those writers and coaches that doubted OSU saw them beat an undefeated Wisconsin team pretty handily... no matter how it was done. If both teams continue to win, I don't think Cincy will pass OSU again.

 

[Jaxbuck]

[quote='BusNative;156488;3]I couldn't care less if you think we're worthy. If the cards fall in the right way, Bucks get to the BCS title game. Win = Championship.[/quote]

I agree that if we get there and win we're the champs.

Here are some odds on what we are looking at right now:

Event #1 USC takes a second loss
Event #2 VT takes a second loss
Event #3 Texas takes 1 loss. Lets go with the thought it will be to OU and that it will eliminate them from playing in the B12 CG and call it a single event.
Event#4 SEC CG loser falls below OSU (again we'll ignore the distinct possibility that we may need Bama to lose a game before the SEC CG game and call it one event)
Event #5 Boise drops below OSU in the polls
Event #6 OSU runs the table (again I'll call it a single event instead of 6)

By the most favorable way of counting I can come up with we need 6 events to all happen. Odds are 63 to 1 against that.

By the most unfavorable measure we are looking at 13 events needing to hapen (2 texas losses, 2 bama losses and 6 OSU wins). Odds are 8,191 to 1 against that.

By the middle ground lets say we need 11 events to happen (#'s 1 through 5 and 6 OSU wins). Odds are 2,047 to 1 against that.


None of this is weighted for probability, just rough strokes to illustrate what we are up against. Maybe we can come back and start marking some of it off when/if it starts to fall into place.

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

I agree that if we get there and win we're the champs.

Here are some odds on what we are looking at right now:

Event #1 USC takes a second loss
Event #2 VT takes a second loss
Event #3 Texas takes 1 loss. Lets go with the thought it will be to OU and that it will eliminate them from playing in the B12 CG and call it a single event.
Event#4 SEC CG loser falls below OSU (again we'll ignore the distinct possibility that we may need Bama to lose a game before the SEC CG game and call it one event)
Event #5 Boise drops below OSU in the polls
Event #6 OSU runs the table (again I'll call it a single event instead of 6)

By the most favorable way of counting I can come up with we need 6 events to all happen. Odds are 63 to 1 against that.

By the most unfavorable measure we are looking at 13 events needing to hapen (2 texas losses, 2 bama losses and 6 OSU wins). Odds are 8,191 to 1 against that.

By the middle ground lets say we need 11 events to happen (#'s 1 through 5 and 6 OSU wins). Odds are 2,047 to 1 against that.


None of this is weighted for probability, just rough strokes to illustrate what we are up against. Maybe we can come back and start marking some of it off when/if it starts to fall into place.

Kinda disagree Jax. Right now we have six teams in the mix (UT, SC, VaTech, Boise, OSU, Cincy). Assuming that a rematch of the SEC teams is impossible and that OSU will win out, we would only need all of the other five teams to have another loss. Assuming that the probability of going undefeated from this point on is 50%, a valid assumption considering the tough games facing these teams, the probability that all of them will lose is 3.1%. Not a great odd but not one to dismiss out of the question either. If we further assume that Boise's ranking will hit a ceiling before #2, then the probability that the remaining four will all suffer losses is 6.25%.

If we just go by gut feeling, then you can go back and figure out the odds of a team ranked at #7 or below at week five or later eventually makes it to the title game. I bet the odds are much higher than 2000 to 1.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Kinda disagree Jax. Right now we have six teams in the mix (UT, SC, VaTech, Boise, OSU, Cincy). Assuming that a rematch of the SEC teams is impossible and that OSU will win out, we would only need all of the other five teams to have another loss. Assuming that the probability of going undefeated from this point on is 50%, a valid assumption considering the tough games facing these teams, the probability that all of them will lose is 15.6%. Not a great odd but not one to dismiss out of the question either. If we further assume that Boise's ranking will hit a ceiling before #2, then the probability that the remaining four will all suffer losses is 25%.

If we just go by gut feeling, then you can go back and figure out the odds of a team ranked at #7 or below at week five or later eventually makes it to the title game. I bet the odds are much higher than 2000 to 1.

There is now way you can just summarily dismiss the SEC CG loser if they have 1 loss. The more things that we need to fall our way actually happen the more the chances of a 1 loss SEC CG loser vs a 1 loss OSU in the court of public opinion becomes a reality. I don't like our chances in that case at all.

Math is math, if you think its 4 things that have to happen then yes, its only 15-1 against us. I just happen to think we're realistically looking at closer to 6 things all needing to happen and like I said I'm not weighting anything with probabilities just raw number of events that need to all go down.

Hell let's split the difference and call it 5 events we need to all happen, that's 31-1 against. Like you say, not impossible odds but long none the less.

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

There is now way you can just summarily dismiss the SEC CG loser if they have 1 loss. The more things that we need to fall our way actually happen the more the chances of a 1 loss SEC CG loser vs a 1 loss OSU in the court of public opinion becomes a reality. I don't like our chances in that case at all.

Math is math, if you think its 4 things that have to happen then yes, its only 15-1 against us. I just happen to think we're realistically looking at closer to 6 things all needing to happen and like I said I'm not weighting anything with probabilities just raw number of events that need to all go down.

Hell let's split the difference and call it 5 events we need to all happen, that's 31-1 against. Like you say, not impossible odds but long none the less.

You are right. Mistake in calculation, updated figures posted in edit.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

Penn State and Kansas ahead of Oregon in the coaches poll doesn't make sense.

At least tOSU jumped up.

 

[BB73]

I agree that if we get there and win we're the champs.

Here are some odds on what we are looking at right now:

Event #1 USC takes a second loss
Event #2 VT takes a second loss
Event #3 Texas takes 1 loss. Lets go with the thought it will be to OU and that it will eliminate them from playing in the B12 CG and call it a single event.
Event#4 SEC CG loser falls below OSU (again we'll ignore the distinct possibility that we may need Bama to lose a game before the SEC CG game and call it one event)
Event #5 Boise drops below OSU in the polls
Event #6 OSU runs the table (again I'll call it a single event instead of 6)

By the most favorable way of counting I can come up with we need 6 events to all happen. Odds are 63 to 1 against that.

By the most unfavorable measure we are looking at 13 events needing to hapen (2 texas losses, 2 bama losses and 6 OSU wins). Odds are 8,191 to 1 against that.

By the middle ground lets say we need 11 events to happen (#'s 1 through 5 and 6 OSU wins). Odds are 2,047 to 1 against that.


None of this is weighted for probability, just rough strokes to illustrate what we are up against. Maybe we can come back and start marking some of it off when/if it starts to fall into place.

Or somebody can look at it this way: after tOSU lost to Illinois in 2007, they were #7 in the polls. That was for polls on November 11th, and tOSU made it back to #1 in the final BCS Rankings. There's a lot more time left this year.

 

[t_BuckeyeScott]

Or somebody can look at it this way: after tOSU lost to Illinois in 2007, they were #7 in the polls. That was for polls on November 11th, and tOSU made it back to #1 in the final BCS Rankings. There's a lot more time left this year.

I believe we will see an all SEC BCS championship game rematch when it happens. Remember in 06 we weren't talking about the Big 10 being weak, yet, and they still dropped Michigan to avoid the rematch. If Ohio State runs the table with the only loss being to a 2 loss USC, I don't think there really be that much of a backlash. I really think BB's right though. It's gotta be more likely than in 07 with 1 game to play.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Or somebody can look at it this way: after tOSU lost to Illinois in 2007, they were #7 in the polls. That was for polls on November 11th, and tOSU made it back to #1 in the final BCS Rankings. There's a lot more time left this year.

Yeah you could look at it that way but you'd be doing it wrong (not that you've heard that a lot or anything).

Its not about how much time is left, its drawing a reasonable conclusion as to how many events we'll need and doing the math. It can be 6 events today or 6 events on the last day of the season its the same math. The individual odds of each event happening are where the complexity arises that I simply don't feel like fucking with. I did it as each event being a coin flip which is too simplistic but still begins to illustrate what we are up against.

I only showed 6 events as a best case scenario, in all fairness it's higher than that.