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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

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I sure hope the Arkansas ND matchup plays out. That will be as much a pure physical beating as it will be a scoreboard beating. McFadden might run for 300 yards vs the Domers.

ND exposed against real competition in a Bowl they have no business being in yet again. A holiday tradition.
 
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HOW THE BCS TOP 5 COMPARE -
Here is a look at how the top 5 teams in the BCS Breakdown in several categories.


1. Ohio State--won @ Texas
2. Michigan--won @ ND and Penn St.
3. USC--won vs Oregon and @ Arkansas, lost @ Oregon St.
4. Florida--won @ Tennessee and vs LSU, lost @ Auburn
5. Notre Dame-- won @ GTech and vs Penn St, lost vs Michigan

Glossary
SAG-Jeff Sagarin Computer Rating
SOS-Strength of Schedule
TO Margin-Turnover Margin
vsBCS Top 10-Record vs Current BCS Top 10
vsBCS Top 25-Record vs Current BCS Top 25

The rankings for various statistics shows national ranking followed by the team's statistic in that area.

TeamOSUMichUSCFlaND</B>SAG124912SOS492921422Scoring8-35.826-29.318-32.053-25.416-32.4Total Offense19-40134-37222-39629-38023-393Rushing20-17912-19447-14846-14987-114Passing37-22182-17822-24731-2318-279Scoring DEF1-7.85-12.114-14.87-13.355-21.6Total Defense8-2613-23120-29018-28859-329Rush DEF11-901-2913-916-7657-133Pass DEF23-17165-20163-19874-21256-195TO Margin3rd +148th +1249th +167th -137th +3vsBCS Top100-02-01-00-00-1vsBCS Top 251-02-02-02-11-1
Who should the Irish fans root for so Notre Dame can get up to #2 in the BCS Standings...
1.ND beats Army and USC
2.Michigan beats Ohio State
3.Rutgers loses to West Virginia
4.Arkansas loses to LSU
5.Arkansas or Florida State beats Florida
6.Hope and pray the voters and computers like 11-1 Notre Dame better than 11-1 Ohio State

This is the owrk of a local sportcaster in SB. The sportcaster praised OSU for beating the likes of PSU and Texas, but was really impressed with how OSU dominated every other team but Illinois.
 
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Personally I'd like to see Arkansas and Texas...that's areally, really nasty rivalry I'd love to see play again in a bowl.

If you look at the projections grad posted, one really hilarious thing is in there that I'm sure we can ALL agree on:

How Goddamn hilarious would it be to see Miami, you know, "da U", "da soujahs", the team that all of college football goes through and all...be relegated to playing SAN JOSE BY-GOD STATE in a bowl game???!!! :slappy:

I mean really, I'd love to see Dick Tomey's boys get a shot at "da U" in the Alameda County Coroner Call Us When It's Time For a Dirt-Nap Bowl or whatever it is :slappy:
 
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NOTREDAMECHIEF;660428; said:
Who should the Irish fans root for so Notre Dame can get up to #2 in the BCS Standings...
1.ND beats Army and USC
2.Michigan beats Ohio State
3.Rutgers loses to West Virginia
4.Arkansas loses to LSU
5.Arkansas or Florida State beats Florida
6.Hope and pray the voters and computers like 11-1 Notre Dame better than 11-1 Ohio State
Click to expand...

Ok lets assume 1-5 play out. ND still has 2 big problems.

1) The aforementioned BCS points.
2) ND would be politicking for a rematch with a team that scored nearly 50 on them at home while saying OSU doesn't deserve a rematch.

Good luck on all that.
 
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Link

It's simple: Win your conference before you play for BCS title
257.jpg
Nov. 13, 2006
By Dennis Dodd
CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Here's what's wrong with this Michigan-Ohio State rematch thing:
One team is going to lose.
Which means one team is not going to win the Big Ten title.
But could play for the national championship.
If that bothers anyone else, the e-mails of the commissioners of the six BCS conferences are available upon request. Not that they care. They've had nine years to correct this little oversight.
Why would they? Once they saw Nebraska lose by 26 to Colorado in its final regular-season game in 2001, you could see the wheels turning. The scarred 'Skers didn't even win their own division but played for the national championship.
Hey, they thought, not a bad racket. Why job the conference out of a $4.5 million payday (at-large BCS money) and a shot at the title on a little technicality like winning a six-team division?
They were convinced further in 2003 when Oklahoma lost the Big 12 title game by four touchdowns -- and still played LSU for the BCS title.
Never mind that Colorado got screwed out of a title shot in 2001. Or that LSU still seethes over sharing the '03 title. In the commissioners' big picture, that was a good thing. Because in any given year, Nebraska could be the equivalent of Saturday's loser here.
Dodd's Heisman Watch
1. Troy Smith, Ohio State 2. Ray Rice, Rutgers 3. Steve Slaton, West Virginia 4. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame 5. Colt Brennan, Hawaii
The only outrage seems to be that for the first time two teams from one conference (Big Ten) would play for the BCS title. It's kind of like Microsoft playing a charity pickup basketball game between corporate execs where all the proceeds go to -- Microsoft.
In this case more than $20 million would roll into Big Ten coffers, plus a guaranteed national championship. Does that bother anyone else? Are Michigan and Ohio State so much better than the rest that they should have a monopoly on the national championship?
Let the BCS computers answer that question. In half of the six, the Big Ten is rated no better than second. It is ranked fourth in the Sagarin Index and the Anderson-Hester computer.
So much for superiority.
Jim Tressel seemed to talk in circles at Monday's presser leading up to the Michigan game. He was asked if he thought a team should have to win its conference to play in the BCS title game.
"Yeah," he said.
Why?
"The thing that we say, if you want a chance to play for the national championship, you'd better make the assumption that you win every game, and be your champion," Tressel said.
That doesn't mean he'd turn down a rematch bid if Michigan beat him Saturday.
"I think it would be fun," Ohio State safety Brandon Mitchell said. "The rivalry is unlike any other."
A Michigan loss, said receiver Anthony Gonzalez, wouldn't mean the season is "a complete failure." Not when the bowl scouts can extend a championship bid two weeks after that loss on Dec. 2.
It's not right that the second-place team in the Big Ten might have a better chance of playing for the national championship than, say, undefeated Rutgers. A better chance than Arkansas, if it won the SEC.
But at No. 7 in the BCS, the Hogs are, historically, a fringe team. That's because no team has ever come from lower than No. 7 in the BCS in November to play for the title. That history would also exclude possible conference champions -- No. 8 West Virginia (8-1), No. 12 Broncos (10-0) and No. 16 Wake Forest (9-1) at this point.
Might as well throw No. 9 Wisconsin in there. If Ohio State loses Saturday, it would fall into a second-place tie with the Badgers (7-1). Michigan beat Wisconsin earlier this season. The Badgers and Buckeyes have not met. Both would have lost to Michigan.
Only one, though, could get a rematch.
The commissioners keep harping that the BCS has created a week-to-week playoff. True, but it also has devalued the conference championship.
In college basketball, conference titles have become like potato chips. You consider them, you consume them, and then they're forgotten.
That's what makes college football different. It's the reason Michigan and Ohio State celebrate all those conference titles.
Only the BCS celebrates second place.
[/FONT]
 
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Link

Tressel not in favor of BCS rematch


By Pat Forde
ESPN.com
Archive


COLUMBUS, Ohio -- We're still five days from the first Ohio State-Michigan football game of this season, but some people already are talking about a January sequel for the national title.
Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel doesn't sound like a fan.
At his Monday news conference, Tressel was asked whether he believes a team should be required to win its conference in order to play for the national title.

ncf_w_tressel_195.jpg

Steve Grayson/WireImage.com
Jim Tressel doesn't sound like he's a fan of a Michigan-Ohio State rematch.


"Yeah," Tressel said. "Yeah. ? The thing we say as we go into every year, if you want a chance to play for the national championship, you better make the assumption that you need to win every game in your conference and be a champion, and that's the way we enter it. I hadn't thought about it, but you asked the question so I gave you the short answer, I guess."
Under Tressel's philosophy, failure to win the Big Ten title would obviously preclude the loser of this Saturday cataclysm from a rematch in the BCS National Championship Game in Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 8. That means, if the coach sticks to his rhetorical guns, you won't be hearing the Buckeyes lobbying for a chance to play for all the marbles if they lose Saturday.
Most BCS gurus believe it would be a long shot for Michigan and Ohio State to remain 1-2 in the final standings Dec. 3, but there are scenarios under which it can happen. And there is fairly rampant speculation in this area of the country about playing what is arguably the nation's biggest rivalry game twice in one season -- with the second meeting at a neutral site in the desert.
The very thought of Michigan and Ohio State not battling in the cold of the Midwest in either team's home stadium wrinkles some traditionalists' noses. But it brought a gleam to the eye of Ohio State defensive end Jay Richardson.
"If there were to be a rematch," Richardson said, "it probably would be the biggest game in college football history. ? How often do you have a rivalry game for the national championship? That would be huge."
Judging from what several Ohio State players said about the annual savagery of this game, the thought of doing it again six weeks later might not be palatable. Defensive tackle Quinn Pitcock said he barely got out of bed for a week after last year's game in Ann Arbor.
"I was completely sore," Pitcock said. "Every nook and cranny of my body ached. ? You don't notice it during the game. It's not until afterward that you realize, 'Wow, I really overextended myself.'"
So the overused analogies to a heavyweight fight could be appropriate here. This could play out like "Rocky."
At the end of the movie, a thoroughly exhausted Apollo Creed says there "ain't gonna be no rematch."
"Don't want one," answers an equally drained Rocky Balboa.
Don't deserve one, says Jim Tressel.
 
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I don't want a rematch and I don't think most fans or media do either.

However, if the Cal>USC>ND thing goes down and the SEC champ ends up a 2 loss team we are all going to have to start dealing with it.

There would simply be no one else left.
 
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SI

Rise of the Razorbacks

Having won nine straight, Arkansas jumps to No. 3

Posted: Tuesday November 14, 2006 12:05PM; Updated: Tuesday November 14, 2006 3:07PM

Once upon a time, polls like this one were purely subjective pursuits meant to determine who supposed "experts" like myself felt were the best teams in the country at any given moment. They were meant mostly for fun and hype, and hey, whoever happened to end up No. 1 in the final poll got a trophy.
Well, the BCS has pretty much ruined that. These days, fans don't particularly care who I or anyone else thinks are the best teams in the country -- not when there's a berth in the national championship game at stake. All anyone wants to talk about is who's "most deserving." In fact a lot of the e-mails I receive make me wonder whether anyone out there is actually watching the games or whether they spend their Saturdays poring over schedules and crunching numbers. You know -- like a computer?
The reason I bring this up is Arkansas. To me, there's little question the Razorbacks are playing the best football of any team in the country right now outside of the Big Two, which is why I have them third in this week's rankings. Not only have the Hogs won nine straight games, but they also seem to getting better each week. Behind newfound shotgun quarterback Darren McFadden and a ferocious pass rush, Arkansas dominated a very good Tennessee team in every aspect of the game last Saturday. The Vols came in having allowed just three 100-yard rushers in their last 33 games; McFadden ran for 181 and threw for a touchdown.
Invariably, however, I will get a barrage of e-mails today asking me how in my right mind I could possibly have Arkansas ranked ahead of USC, the team it lost to 50-14 some two-and-a-half months ago. These people seem to think college football is played in a vacuum, where the teams are all exactly the same on Nov. 14 as they were on Sept. 2. Anyone who's watched Arkansas realizes it's not remotely the team that lost 50-14. Its quarterback, Casey Dick, did not even play in that game; the guy who did, Robert Johnson, no longer plays quarterback. And McFadden, the Razorbacks' heart and soul, was hurt and barely played.
USC, meanwhile, is just two weeks removed from a 33-31 loss at 6-4 Oregon State and a slew of sluggish performances before that. While the Trojans have certainly looked better since, if the two teams met today, I would take the Razorbacks in a heartbeat. Therefore, I have them ranked higher.
That said, if for some reason I was handed the responsibility of choosing the teams for the national championship game tomorrow, and it came down to one-loss Arkansas against one-loss USC for the second spot, of course I would give it to the Trojans. Why? Because USC would be ... say it with me now ... more deserving. Fortunately, I don't have that responsibility, so I'm free to fill out my ballot based on a more quaint set of criteria: Who I think is better.
NCAA Football Power Rankings Rank LW
Team 1 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)
Wow, do the Buckeyes capitalize on turnovers. Ohio State's offense barely touched the ball in the first quarter against Northwestern, yet they jumped to a 21-0 lead thanks largely to a James Laurinaitis strip, an Antonio Smith fumble recovery and a Brandon Mitchell interception for touchdown.
Next game: Saturday vs. Michigan.

2 2 Michigan Wolverines (11-0)
Lost in the shuffle amidst Michigan's bevy of defensive stars -- DE LaMarr Woodley, DT Alan Branch, CB Leon Hall -- is LB David Harris, whose 80 tackles are nearly double the next-closest Wolverine. "I don't think there's a better linebacker in the country," Lloyd Carr says of Harris.
Next game: Saturday at Ohio State.

3 7 Arkansas Razorbacks (9-1)
It's been a long time since Arkansas has had a game-breaking receiver like Marcus Monk. QB Casey Dick (and part-time QB Darren McFadden) just throw it up there and the 6-foot-6 junior comes down with it. Over the past three games, Monk has 21 catches for 380 yards and five TDs.
Next game: Saturday at Mississippi State.

4 5 Florida Gators (9-1)
After struggling for over a month, Florida's offense finally broke out against South Carolina, led by DeShawn Wynn's rushing 90 yards. The Gators' depleted defense, however, allowed a season-high 410 yards. Not only is Marcus Thomas gone, but LBs Brandon Siler and Earl Everett were also limited by injuries.
Next game: Saturday vs. Western Carolina.

5 10 USC Trojans (8-1)
Pete Carroll has never lost a game in November, and like clockwork, the Trojans have turned it up a notch since the calendar changed. But don't let a pair of lopsided wins fool you into thinking USC is all the way "back." The Trojans' defense is in for their biggest challenge of the season on Saturday against Cal.
Next game: Saturday vs. Cal.

6 16 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-0)
Is Rutgers as good as this ranking indicates? After watching the way their defense absolutely suffocated Louisville, yes. Unfortunately, though, the Scarlet Knights haven't played enough quality foes to gauge whether they should be even higher. Let's see if they beat West Virginia, then we'll talk.
Next game: Saturday at Cincinnati.

7 3 Louisville Cardinals (8-1)
I'm a little confused as to why the Cardinals fell behind West Virginia in the polls just 10 days after beating the Mountaineers 44-34. Apparently, some people still consider losing to Rutgers -- even on the road, on a last-second field goal to an undefeated team -- to be an atrocity.
Next game: Saturday vs. USF.

8 8 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1)
I for one have not jumped off the Steve Slaton bandwagon (although if bandwagons were actual vehicles, my back foot would be clinging to the roof while the rest of me reached for Darren McFadden's). First six carries against Cincinnati: 11 yards. The seventh: A 65-yard touchdown.
Next game: Saturday vs. Cincinnati.

9 11 LSU Tigers (8-2)
Now that I've devoted so much ink to praising McFadden and Arkansas, watch LSU's defense shut them down on Nov. 24. The Tigers have suffered some injuries in their secondary and gave up yards through the air against Alabama, but it's still tough running on them: Foes are averaging 72.1 yards.
Next game: Saturday vs. Ole Miss.

10 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1)
I don't understand why Irish fans are so steamed about the latest rankings. Their team is all the way up to fifth in the BCS standings, and if the Irish beat USC, they're going to move even higher. Of course, all of this is completely moot, seeing as the Trojans are going to win that game by at least 17.
Next game: Saturday vs. Army.
 
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osugrad21;661319; said:
SI

2 2 Michigan Wolverines (11-0)
Lost in the shuffle amidst Michigan's bevy of defensive stars -- DE LaMarr Woodley, DT Alan Branch, CB Leon Hall -- is LB David Harris, whose 80 tackles are nearly double the next-closest Wolverine. "I don't think there's a better linebacker in the country," Lloyd Carr says of Harris.
Next game: Saturday at Ohio State.
Click to expand...

They will fall below Arkansas after this weekend!:biggrin:
 
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6 16 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-0)
Is Rutgers as good as this ranking indicates? After watching the way their defense absolutely suffocated Louisville, yes. Unfortunately, though, the Scarlet Knights haven't played enough quality foes to gauge whether they should be even higher. Let's see if they beat West Virginia, then we'll talk.
Next game: Saturday at Cincinnati.
8 8 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1)
I for one have not jumped off the Steve Slaton bandwagon (although if bandwagons were actual vehicles, my back foot would be clinging to the roof while the rest of me reached for Darren McFadden's). First six carries against Cincinnati: 11 yards. The seventh: A 65-yard touchdown.
Next game: Saturday vs. Cincinnati.


Wow Cincinnati might be in trouble this weekend, at least its at home! :wink2:
 
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