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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

Link

ard to tell contenders from pretenders in title race
November 13, 2006
BY Ralph D. Russo Associated Press
The season started with the promise of a mad scramble for No. 1.
For awhile, Ohio State went and ruined that theory by playing like a juggernaut.
Well, it took about two months, but that topsy-turvy national championship race has finally arrived, and it's every bit as unpredictable as advertised: Arkansas and Rutgers are contenders. Auburn and West Virginia are not. Neither is defending champ Texas.
Southern California was out and back in. Same goes for Notre Dame. California was out, back, and now out again.
Time to hit the reset button, forget about what we thought we knew and sort out what lies ahead.
This much is certain: Top-ranked Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan play the Game of the Century on Saturday in Columbus -- which could end up deciding nothing more than which team wears the home jerseys at the BCS championship game on Jan. 8.
If nothing else, when the Buckeyes and Wolverines are done, we'll know at least one of the participants in the title game in Glendale, Ariz. The other is anybody's guess right now, though Florida and USC seem to be the front-runners.
As Louisville can attest, that doesn't mean much. The Cardinals went from having the inside track to the championship game to being completely out of the picture when they lost to Rutgers on a last-second field goal last week.
Florida dances with danger every week in the Southeastern Conference, often looks like it can't get out of it's own way offensively, but can't lose no matter how hard it tries. The Gators blocked three kicks, including an extra point and a last-play field goal, to beat South Carolina and their old ball coach, Steve Spurrier, 17-16 on Saturday in the Swamp.
"Just win the next game," Florida coach Urban Meyer said Sunday. "No, I have no concern over (style points). I guess I probably should because that might affect standings, and human element involved in all this BCS stuff."
The Gators are done with SEC play until the title game on Dec. 2, when they'll likely meet Arkansas.
The Razorbacks started the season with a 50-14 loss to USC and haven't lost since. After easily dispatching Tennessee 31-14, the Hogs look like the best team in the SEC. And their tailback, Darren McFadden, might be the player most likely to win the Heisman Trophy if front-runner quarterback Troy Smith of Ohio State puts up a clunker against Michigan.
McFadden and the Razorbacks can clinch the SEC West next week by beating Mississippi State. Arkansas, after two straight losing seasons, could become maybe the most unlikely team to ever play in a BCS title game if the Razorbacks beat LSU the following week and Florida in the Georgia Dome.
Though when it comes to feel-good stories, Arkansas has nothing on Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights are longtime losers turned Beasts of the Big East, with a speedy defense and their own Heisman contender in running back Ray Rice. But if Rutgers can run the table, including a win at West Virginia in the season finale, the Scarlet Knights will be able to make quite case for playing in the national title game -- even though it might fall on deaf ears.
Though at least one not-totally-impartial observer is impressed with Rutgers.
"I don't understand why Rutgers is not viewed the same as West Virginia and Louisville," Notre Dame coach and New Jersey native Charlie Weis said. "I think that if Rutgers is undefeated at the end of the year, it's going to be a heck of a situation. Whether it's Notre Dame or whether it's Notre Dame or somebody else, it's going to be a heck of a situation. Because no matter what way you go, there will be people whining."
Notre Dame gets it's big shot in two weeks when the Fighting Irish play at USC.
The Trojans have Pac-10 business to take care of this week against California, in a game that lost its luster when Cal fell to Arizona. After the Trojans had an easy time with Oregon on Saturday, winning 35-10, that loss to Oregon State seems like ancient history.
The BCS pairings come out on Dec. 3, and we might not know for sure until that day who's playing in the national title game.
 
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Somebody explain to me how it's fair that a team who lost to either the #1 or #2 team in the country (while being either #1 or #2) will end up behind a team that lost to an unranked team.

For the sake of clarity can we stop using thw word 'fair' in this discussion?

Someone was upset that Michigan got a vote for #1 this week. If you look at it objectively shouldn't they be getting about half of such votes?
 
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Dispatch

Monday, November 13, 2006
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Those co_puters are funny guys. But it _atters not...we win this week and not a co_puter, AP reporter, or scU_ coach in the Nation can dispute what we (and _ost others) already know: We're undisputed #1 with a _onth and a half to prepare for another National Cha_pionship! :tongue2:

As far as this week is concerned:

I LOVE the 'points for' & 'points against' co_parisons, both in and out of conference, with scU_!

I said it last week vs. the Purple Kitties, I'll say it again this week. If we don't turn the ball over (or better yet, whoever wins the turn-over battle), and don't "_iss" tackles, then I do not see any way we can lose this ga_e (barring injury...knock on wood).

We have the best tea_! :osu:

We have the Ho_e Field advantage! :osu:

We have Troy S_ith! :osu:

We have Ji_ Tressel! :osu:

Looks like a clean sweep to _e. :biggrin:


...Final Score: tOSU - 27 scU_ - 13 :wink2:

...then let so_e stupid co_puter rank Rutgers ahead of us. :oh:
 
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Link

"I was fortunate enough to have marched in every performance but was the highest ranking by the slimmest of margins," Wanders said.
He was just ahead of his best friend, Mike Nary of North Royalton.
Nary was an alternate at a single performance, a band show their freshman year.
The eight fourth- and fifth-year seniors met in February and Wanders chose first.
"It was a no-brainer -- Michigan," he said.
Wanders also got a second choice, and that, too, was easy: The Sept. 9 game in Texas, when the two teams were ranked No. 1 and No. 2.
"Right now, I'm sitting to be the only guy ever to dot the i' in two games where OSU is No. 1 and the other team is No. 2," he said.
Wanders will spend another year at OSU to complete a double major in marketing and transportation logistics. He will march but will not dot the "i."
He wants to honor next year's nine fourth-year seniors, he said.
"Let all of them enjoy their time," he said. "I don't want to step on toes and come off selfish. I can't think of any other way of topping this year." Phase III: Notre Dame loses to USC on Nov. 25.

In that scenario, who would Cal play in Pasadena on Jan. 1?

The Rose Bowl couldn't take 11-1 Wisconsin because no conference can have more than two teams in BCS bowls. The Rose Bowl would be left to sift among available two-loss schools or a 12-0 Rutgers team ranked in the BCS top five.

"It's a feasibility," Rose Bowl Chief Executive Mitch Dorger said Sunday when broached with the Rutgers scenario. "They'd be on a list of folks that are looked at. They'd have to be."

That's all Dorger wanted to say on the matter. The Rose Bowl prefers to wait a week or two before assessing the possible permutations and crazy scenarios ? and even the not so crazy ones.

Rutgers in the Rose Bowl, though, well that's enough to break out the smelling salts in parts of New Jersey.

This is a school that has played two bowl games in its history and lost them both to the same team ? Arizona State.

This weekend shakedown also increased Notre Dame's chances of playing in its first Rose Bowl since 1925.

The straightest route for Notre Dame is Ohio State and Michigan meeting in a BCS title game rematch and Cal beating USC next week, then Notre Dame beating USC.

That would put Cal in the Rose Bowl in a likely matchup against one-loss Notre Dame.

Here's how the national title race is shaping up in order of Sunday's BCS standings:

? Ohio State: The Buckeyes will clinch a bid with a win over Michigan on Saturday and might even earn a trip if they lose. In 2003, No. 1 Oklahoma lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game but was so strong in the BCS computers that it remained No. 1 and played Louisiana State for the BCS title even though USC ended the regular season as No. 1 in both human polls.

? Michigan: The Wolverines are in if they beat Ohio State and possibly in if they lose. A blowout loss to Ohio State would probably drop Michigan out of the BCS title game but into the Rose Bowl.

? USC. It didn't seem possible that the Trojans could get back in the race after their two-point loss to Oregon State in Corvallis, but here they are. USC needs to win its last three games against Cal, Notre Dame and UCLA and hope there is a lopsided winner in next weekend's Ohio State-Michigan game.

? Florida. The Gators could make a compelling case as a one-loss Southeastern Conference champion, but Sunday's BCS release should be viewed as a storm warning in Gainesville.

If USC has already passed Florida in the BCS, how are the Gators going to overtake the Trojans with a closing schedule that includes Western Carolina, reeling Florida State and a possible SEC title-game against Arkansas, a team that USC beat, 50-14?

? Notre Dame. It's hard to see how the Irish can get to Glendale because they are getting boxed out by Michigan, which crushed Notre Dame in South Bend, 47-21. Notre Dame's best chance would be for Ohio State to crush Michigan so thoroughly it would knock the Wolverines way down the polls or for Michigan to crush Ohio State.

? Rutgers. Well, well, do we even dare to suggest it? What if Ohio State wipes out Michigan, USC loses to Cal but beats Notre Dame and Florida suffers a second loss?

Holy turnpike!

? Arkansas. The Razorbacks need to win the SEC and hope USC loses, because the Trojans hold that big win over Arkansas in any one-loss, title-game discussion.

And while Boise State, even at 12-0, has no shot at the national title game, the Broncos did move up two spots to No. 12 in the BCS, the position the team needs to maintain to earn an automatic BCS bid.

Boise State jumped to No. 12 by kicking a last-second field goal to beat San Jose State.

We know what you're thinking: This BCS ball sure takes a lot of funny bounces.
 
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osugrad21;659920; said:
Dispatch

Monday, November 13, 2006
Ar0761400.gif

I don't usually like looking at these stats, but holy crap! 263-53 in Big Ten games, compared to 174-62. Only Wisconsin comes close to Ohio State in "points-for," and they've played one more Big Ten game.

I'm sticking with my OSU 30 - UM 13 pick.
 
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methomps;659426; said:
Doubtful. Ohio State is already 3rd in half the computers. Michigan has the better chance, but I still think the loser falls behind Rutgers and USC (if both win out).

Ohio State's rating is affected by this run of weaker Big Ten Schools and the SOS has dropped to the 40s-50s in most computers. The TSUN game will bring Ohio State back up to + 25 in SOS.

Ohio State is number one in almost every meaningful computer rating but rates #3 because of the full information of scoring differences cannot be used in the BCS version of the models, which is about like asking who is likely to score among a group of castrated monks.
 
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Another point. Rutgers is NOT ranked above us in the computer ratings that are used to predict the outcome of games. Generally, they are outside the top 10. It's only in this silly BCS version of the computer models that this happens.

And one more point. Just think back to how many games we could have tagged another touchdown or two on teams in the fourth quarter but backed off. The computers that predict outcomes use the scores, not what we might have done.
 
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SI

Bowl Projections

USC is back in the title picture after a wild weekend

Posted: Monday November 13, 2006 11:53AM; Updated: Monday November 13, 2006 12:49PM
t1_booty_si.jpg

John David Booty and the Trojans are in an enviable position at No. 3 in this week's BCS rankings.
Peter Read Miller/SI

On Oct. 28, a mere 16 days ago, the top three in the BCS standings were: Ohio State, Michigan and USC. Today, the top three in the BCS standings are: Ohio State, Michigan and USC.
It's as if the Trojans' game against Oregon State never happened.
USC's return to the national-title driver's seat obviously has a profound effect on the entire bowl forecast. For one, it means if the Trojans win out, the championship game will be a Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup, leaving the Rose Bowl to find two replacement teams.
One of those will obviously be the loser of Saturday's game in Columbus. The other would have been Cal, but after losing to Arizona, the Bears are unlikely to finish in the BCS top 14 if they don't beat the Trojans. That would leave the Rose Bowl scrambling for a non-Big Ten or Pac-10 team with few logical candidates (Notre Dame would be an obvious one, but not with Ohio State or Michigan on the other side). I gave them projected Big East champ West Virginia, creating a potential matchup of two 11-1 teams, but that's purely a guess on my part.
Same goes for giving an at-large berth to Rutgers. I just love the idea of an all-Cinderella Orange Bowl (Rutgers vs. Wake Forest). It would shatter New York college football TV ratings records -- and bomb in literally every other market. More realistically, that spot is eventually going to go to a two-loss team such as Oklahoma, but right now the Sooners aren't high enough in the rankings. LSU would also be a strong possibility if it knocks off Arkansas.
BCS/NEW YEARS DAY GAMES
Date
Game
Jan. 8 Title: Ohio State/Michigan winner (BCS No. 1) vs. USC (BCS No. 2)
Jan. 3
Sugar: Arkansas (SEC champ) vs. Notre Dame (BCS at-large)
Jan. 2
Orange: Wake Forest (ACC champ) vs. Rutgers (BCS at-large)
Jan. 1 Fiesta: Texas (Big 12 champ) vs. Boise State (BCS at-large)
Jan. 1
Rose: Ohio State/Michigan loser (BCS at-large) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
Jan. 1 Capital One: Wisconsin (Big Ten No. 2) vs. Florida (SEC No. 2)
Jan. 1 Gator: Boston College (ACC No. 3) vs. Oklahoma (Big East No. 2/Big 12)
Jan. 1 Outback: Penn State (Big Ten No. 3) vs. Tennessee (SEC)
Jan. 1
Cotton: Nebraska (Big 12 No. 2) vs. LSU (SEC) OTHER GAMES
Jan. 7 GMAC: East Carolina (C-USA No. 2) vs. Ohio (MAC)
Jan. 6
International: Cincinnati (Big East No. 4/5) vs. Western Michigan (MAC)
Dec. 31
MPC Computers: San Jose State (WAC) vs. Miami (ACC)
Dec. 30 Chick-fil-A: Georgia Tech (ACC No. 2) vs. Auburn (SEC)
Dec. 30
Alamo: Iowa (Big Ten No. 4/5) vs. Texas A&M (Big 12 No. 4)
Dec. 30
Meineke: Navy (Big East/Navy) vs. Clemson (ACC)
Dec. 29
Champs Sports: Virginia Tech (ACC No. 4) vs. Purdue (Big Ten No. 4/5)
Dec. 29
Insight: Kansas State (Big 12 No. 6) vs. Minnesota (Big Ten No. 6)
Dec. 29 Liberty: Houston (C-USA champ) vs. Georgia (SEC)
Dec. 29
Sun: Oregon (Pac-10 No. 3) vs. Louisville (Big 12/Big East)
Dec. 29 Music City: Maryland (ACC No. 5) vs. Kentucky (SEC)
Dec. 28
Texas: Texas Tech (Big 12) vs. USF (Big East)
Dec. 28
Holiday: Cal (Pac-10 No. 2) vs. Missouri (Big 12 No. 3)
Dec. 28
Independence: Oklahoma State (Big 12 No. 7) vs. Alabama (SEC)
Dec. 27
Emerald: Arizona State (Pac-10 No. 5) vs. Florida State (ACC No. 7)
Dec. 26
Motor City: South Carolina* (Big Ten No. 7) vs. Central Michigan (MAC)
Dec. 24
Hawaii: Hawaii (WAC) vs. Washington State (Pac-10 No. 6)
Dec. 23
Armed Forces: TCU (MWC) vs. Rice (C-USA)
Dec. 23 New Mexico: New Mexico (MWC) vs. Nevada (WAC)
Dec. 23
Birmingham: Pittsburgh (Big East) vs. Tulsa (C-USA)
Dec. 22
New Orleans: Middle Tennessee St. (Sun Belt) vs. Southern Miss (C-USA)
Dec. 21 Las Vegas: Oregon State (Pac-10 No. 4) vs. BYU (MWC champ)
Dec. 20 Poinsettia: Air Force (MWC) vs. Arizona (at-large) Teams in bold have accepted bowl invitation
* -- replacement team for conference without enough eligible teams
 
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Steve19;659984; said:
Ohio State's rating is affected by this run of weaker Big Ten Schools and the SOS has dropped to the 40s-50s in most computers. The TSUN game will bring Ohio State back up to + 25 in SOS.

Ohio State is number one in almost every meaningful computer rating but rates #3 because of the full information of scoring differences cannot be used in the BCS version of the models, which is about like asking who is likely to score among a group of castrated monks.

So you are saying that Ohio State would jump Rutgers even if they lost to Michigan? Sorry, I don't buy that.

Steve19;659989; said:
Another point. Rutgers is NOT ranked above us in the computer ratings that are used to predict the outcome of games. Generally, they are outside the top 10. It's only in this silly BCS version of the computer models that this happens.

And one more point. Just think back to how many games we could have tagged another touchdown or two on teams in the fourth quarter but backed off. The computers that predict outcomes use the scores, not what we might have done.

True, but those computers aren't a part of the BCS. What they say is irrelevant to this discussion.
 
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