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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

ABJ

Deja vu in BCS title game?

Like it or not, there is chance OSU and Michigan could meet twice

By Marla Ridenour

Beacon Journal sportswriter

COLUMBUS - It could be darting through the Buckeyes' brains like the flashing light preceding a migraine.
Amidst all the madness surrounding Saturday's showdown between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan in Ohio Stadium, an ominous possibility lingers. The now-undefeated archrivals might have to go through it all again in January.
With a significant gap between No. 2 Michigan (.9735) and No. 3 Southern California (.8699) in the Bowl Championship Series standings, there is a chance that the Buckeyes and Wolverines could meet again in the BCS national title game Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz.
``The computer experts are all mulling it, but there's not any way to know until all the games are played Dec. 2,'' BCS administrator Bill Hancock said Tuesday. ``People speculate every week on who's going to be in every BCS game, then Saturday comes and it all changes.''
Saturday's winner will be assured of a trip to Glendale, but the other teams within striking distance still have major challenges left on their schedules.
No. 3 USC (8-1) hosts No. 15 Cal Saturday, then closes out with No. 5 Notre Dame (9-1) and at UCLA. No. 4 Florida (9-1) goes on the road to Western Carolina this weekend, then visits Florida State. After visiting Cincinnati on Saturday, No. 6 Rutgers hosts Syracuse and goes to No. 8 West Virginia. No. 7 Arkansas (9-1) goes to Mississippi State this weekend, then hosts No. 11 LSU. Florida and Arkansas are also on track to meet Dec. 2 in the SEC Championship Game. (All standings given are BCS rankings.)
``I don't want to see a rematch,'' ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit said. ``I think USC has put themselves in a position where if they win out, no matter what we all want, USC will go to the championship. I also think if Notre Dame upsets USC in the Coliseum, Notre Dame will move up just because it's Notre Dame. The winner of the Arkansas-Florida game with one loss will be high enough.
``I will be shocked if it's a rematch. It's winner take all. Loser goes to the Rose Bowl, which for a lot of people in this part of the country, they'd rather go to the Rose Bowl parade than watch the Glendale national title game.''
Some voters might wonder what to do with Notre Dame if it wins out, especially considering the Irish were pummeled 47-21 at home by Michigan on Sept. 16 and gave up 617 total yards in a 34-20 loss to Ohio State in January's Fiesta Bowl.
``If (OSU-Michigan) is a close game, you're going to get a lot people sitting there in that final week saying, 'There's no way I can move Notre Dame up there,' '' Herbstreit said.
Hancock, who spent 13 years as director of the NCAA Final Four, hears the criticism and tries to educate the public, confused even more since the system has been tweaked after every season.
``People who love college football just want the best two teams in the game regardless if it's a rematch or not,'' Hancock said. ``I know historically, rematches have not been exceptionally thrilling. In this case, that's neither here nor there.''
The loser, who will likely tie Wisconsin for second in the Big Ten, does appear to be bound for the Jan. 1 Rose Bowl, especially if USC reaches the title game. The Rose still has affiliations with the Big Ten and Pac-10 conferences and if it lost both league winners to the BCS championship, it would have the first two picks. Also in the BCS bowl mix are the Jan. 1 Fiesta (Big 12 affiliate), Jan. 2 Orange (ACC) and Jan. 3 Sugar (SEC). Any team with nine victories in the top 14 of the final BCS standings can be selected.
Some Ohio State players aren't thrilled about the idea of a rematch.
``My theory on the whole bowl system, I don't really like it,'' junior slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez said. ``If we play them again, I guess that would be just another opportunity to renew the greatest opportunity in all of sports.''
Senior defensive end Jay Richardson knows a rematch might not be fair to this weekend's winner.
``It's always hard to beat a team twice, especially us knowing them so well and them knowing us so well,'' Richardson said. ``If that were to happen, that would make winning the championship that much sweeter and give you definitely without a doubt a clear winner.''
Junior tailback Antonio Pittman of Buchtel and senior right guard T.J. Downing of GlenOak almost sounded like they relished a rematch.
``I don't think it would take anything away from it,'' Pittman said. ``If we were to win and we had to play Michigan again, I'm all for it. It will be the national championship, the game we wanted to play.''
Downing said, ``I'm sure it would be fun. I'd hope we'd be 2-0 afterwards, but you never really know what's going to happen with this BCS thing. But I think whoever ends up losing this game should be in the hunt for it.''
Senior defensive end Quinn Pitcock shrugged off the whole idea.
``Who knows and who cares?'' Pitcock said. ``I've got Michigan this week and we have to play them the first time.''
 
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ABJ

Ohio State vs. Michigan

Loser could get second chance

Winner headed to title game. Some Wolverines are OK with rematch, but real focus is Saturday's game

By Sheldon Ocker

Beacon Journal sportswriter

ANN ARBOR, MICH. - It's a long shot, yet there's a chance.
Is that good or bad for college football fans, the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry, the BCS and, of course, television?
The Buckeyes will enter Saturday's showdown with the second-ranked Wolverines as the No. 1 team in the country. A win would send Ohio State to the BCS national championship game in Arizona in January.
None of this is news. Anyone who has access to radio, television, the local sports pages or a friendly bartender knows all about it. There is, however, a significant gap between Michigan at No. 2 and No. 3 Southern Cal, which could move to second place in the BCS standings once the winner of Ohio State-Michigan is decided.
Then again, there might be an obstacle -- besides California, which USC plays on Saturday -- in the path of the Trojans.
If the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes in a close game, Ohio State might drop only to second in the BCS standings.
If that were to happen, and Ohio State held its position for the final two weeks of the regular season, the national title game would feature a rematch of OSU and Michigan.
This is not necessarily a desirable outcome, except to the Buckeyes, who would get a second chance to beat the Wolverines. Most football coaches think playing a beaten team a second time the same season is a bad idea.
Michigan coach Lloyd Carr was asked whether he had an opinion.
``Not at this time,'' he said earlier this week, deflecting the question. ``I have enough to worry about with this game. And whatever comes after is part of the system and it will be what it will be.''
One argument against the advisability of a rematch is fairness. If Michigan beats OSU on Buckeye turf, should the Wolverines be forced to do it again on a neutral field?
On the other hand, if Saturday's game reinforces the idea that Ohio State and Michigan are the top two college teams in the land, isn't it only right they meet in a true championship?
``I swear to you, I don't even think of that,'' former Wolverines coach Bo Schembechler said of a potential rematch. ``I don't think of it as a possibility at all. Of course, it's not fair. Once you beat a team, it's over.
``If you're a loser, of course you want to play those guys again. But I would not be in favor of that under any circumstances.''
Quarterback Chad Henne was asked about the wisdom of a rematch and said, ``We're just concerned about the game this week.''
The final BCS standings will not simply be a product of someone's mathematical formula spitting out a conclusion after a computer has digested reams of data.
It is true that one-third of the weight given to the final poll will come from computerized rankings. The other two-thirds will be the result of voting by human beings, who probably will take many things into consideration.
Asked about a rematch, Michigan offensive lineman Rueben Riley said, ``It would be OK. There would be a lot of numbers to add up and subtract. I don't really know what they do. Right now, I want to beat them this week.''
Wolverines tight end Brian Thompson endorsed the idea of a rematch, if that's how the system worked.
``I'm fine with that,'' he said. ``Whatever the BCS decides.''
It is clear that Michigan's players are not focused on a hypothetical situation that probably won't arise. They are keeping their eyes on the task at hand. If they beat Ohio State on Saturday, they will be headed to Arizona. They can worry about the identity of their opponent later.
Defensive end LaMarr Woodley was asked about the possibility of a season being spoiled by the result of Saturday's showdown.
``Somebody's season has to get spoiled,'' he said. ``Both of us are undefeated.''
 
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Dispatch

COMMENTARY
BCS has lost its monopoly on national title game
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
ROB OLLER
20061115-Pc-B5-0600.jpg

The bigwigs behind the Bowl Championship Series think sun and sand, not scarfs and long underwear, when placing their national championship games.
Miami. Pasadena. Phoenix. These are the palm-lined paradises that divert our attention from snow blowers onto sun bathers each early January for a game that determines the title.
So imagine the event organizers? surprise when they learned that a portion of their plan ? pitting No. 1 against No. 2 ? already has come to fruition; not in arid Arizona but in cold and cloudy Columbus, where the only palms in sight are covered with mittens, not coconuts.
Of course, I?m talking about the national championship game Saturday in Ohio Stadium, where Ohio State and Michigan will square off to determine which team is best in the land.
Never mind that 51 days later in Glendale, Ariz., one or possibly both of those teams will play again to see which school should be crowned the BCS champion. The national champion ? aka "the best team this season" ? will be decided Saturday in the Horseshoe. "The best team on a particular day," meanwhile, will be decided Jan. 8 among the cactus.
A ridiculous perspective? Not really. If the BCS?s main goal is to pair the best two teams ? the other four BCS bowl games are an afterthought ? then mission accomplished. Why not just refer to The Game as The Title Game and be done with it?
Certainly, a few bothersome details remain. Rutgers and Boise State, which join OSU-UM as the only four remaining unbeatens, still have games to play after this weekend. But unless Rutgers can maneuver its way into a No. 2 BCS ranking ? my guess is it won?t happen, that the Scarlet Knights will lose at West Virginia on Dec. 2 ? then the official BCS title game in Glendale will feature an undefeated Ohio State or Michigan against a team with one loss. Excuse me, but how is that any better than two undefeated teams facing off in the regular-season finale?
Selling the Ohio State-Michigan game as the real national championship doesn?t sound so silly when considering the alternatives, including a Jan. 8 rematch between the Buckeyes and Wolverines.
If the same team won both games, it would raise the question of why a rematch was necessary. If the teams split, nothing would be settled. The only ones interested in a rematch would be the loser Saturday and BCS haters who want to scrap the bowl system for a playoff format. Nothing would pressure hypocritical college presidents, who remain the main playoff opponents, more than negative national publicity brought on by a senseless rematch.
If No. 2 Michigan defeats No. 1 Ohio State on the road, why should it have to prove itself against a one-loss OSU team on a neutral site? Likewise, an Ohio State victory would give the Buckeyes a second win against a No. 2 team (Texas was the first victim). Then they?d be expected to do it a third time? C?mon. This is football, not basketball.
While a rematch would seem pointless, at least it would feature the two best teams, assuming the game Saturday is not a blowout. Playing any of the other current one-loss teams would be just as flawed. Florida? Needed three blocked kicks to hold off unranked South Carolina at home. Southern Cal? Lost to unranked Oregon State. Notre Dame? Scorched by Michigan. Arkansas? Embarrassed by Southern Cal.
Then there is the foolishness of playing any bowl game five weeks after the completion of the regular season. Yeah, yeah, that?s the way it always has been done. So break the mold. Imagine if the NFL played the Super Bowl 51 days after conference title games.
The simple solution would be to shorten the season ? How could college presidents argue against that? ? by scrapping the conference championship games and creating an eightteam playoff system that would begin in December. Traditionalists would not like it, but proving it on the field is the most equitable and successful way to determine the best team, not just a one-game champion. The release of the coaches? poll would need to wait until mid-October, giving voters time to help pick the strongest teams, thereby removing most of the debate over contenders such as Rutgers.
Without a playoff, we?re left with scenarios much sillier than crowning a national champion in Columbus. Playing another Snow Bowl makes more sense than anything the BCS has come up with.
 
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The USA Today Poll is out
rank -- team -----(1st place) - record -- Votes - Previous
1 ----- Ohio State (63) ----- 12 - 0 ----- 1,575 ----- 1
2 ----- Southern California ----- 9 - 1 ----- 1,444 ----- 4
3 ----- Michigan ----- 11 - 1 ----- 1,428 ----- 2
4 ----- Florida ----- 10 - 1 ----- 1,407 ----- 3
5 ----- Arkansas ----- 10 - 1 ----- 1,302 ----- 6
6 ----- Notre Dame ----- 10 - 1 ----- 1,285 ----- 5
7 ----- West Virginia ----- 9 - 1 ----- 1,151 ----- 7
8 ----- LSU ----- 9 - 2 ----- 1,081 ----- 9
9 ----- Wisconsin ----- 11 - 1 ----- 1,053 ----- 10
10 ----- Texas ----- 9 - 2 ----- 994 ----- 11
11 ----- Louisville ----- 9 - 1 ----- 944 ----- 12
12 ----- Boise State ----- 11 - 0 ----- 862 ----- 13
13 ----- Auburn ----- 10 - 2 ----- 825 ----- 15
14 ----- Oklahoma ----- 9 - 2 ----- 795 ----- 16
15 ----- Georgia Tech ----- 9 - 2 ----- 655 ----- 18
16 ----- Rutgers ----- 9 - 1 ----- 641 ----- 8
17 ----- Virginia Tech ----- 9 - 2 ----- 561 ----- 19
18 ----- Boston College ----- 9 - 2 ----- 540 ----- 20
19 ----- Nebraska ----- 8 - 3 ----- 353 ----- 22
20 ----- Wake Forest ----- 9 - 2 ----- 343 ----- 14
21 ----- Tennessee ----- 8 - 3 ----- 326 ----- 23
22 ----- California ----- 8 - 3 ----- 265 ----- 17
23 ----- Brigham Young ----- 9 - 2 ----- 256 ----- 24
24 ----- Clemson ----- 8 - 3 ----- 174 ----- 25
25 ----- Hawaii ----- 9 - 2 ----- 97 ----- NR
 
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ShakerBuck;665940; said:
why does that poll show the tOSU as 12-1?
Fixed - thanks for noting.
(The poll as shown is copied to Excel, which automatically assumes 12-0 is Date / Time, because there isn't a zero day in any month it will give a 12/1 start date - fixed, also fixed Boise State's record).
 
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AP Poll -

Ohio State has all the first place votes - taking the one given last week to Michigan
Rank --- Team --- Record --- Pts --- Last Week
1. --- Ohio State {65}--- (12-0) --- 1625 --- 1 --- --- ---
2. --- Michigan --- (11-1) --- 1502 --- 2
3. --- USC --- (9-1) --- 1493 --- 4
4. --- Florida --- (10-1) --- 1451 --- 3
5. --- Arkansas --- (10-1) --- 1365 --- 5
6. --- Notre Dame --- (10-1) --- 1307 --- 6
7. --- West Virginia --- (9-1) --- 1144 --- 8
8. --- Louisville --- (9-1) --- 1078 --- 10
9. --- LSU --- (9-2) --- 1075 --- 9
10. --- Wisconsin --- (11-1) --- 1049 --- 12
11. --- Texas --- (9-2) --- 1028 --- 11
12. --- Boise State --- (11-0) --- 878 --- 13
13. --- Oklahoma --- (9-2) --- 856 --- 16
14. --- Auburn --- (10-2) --- 822 --- 15
15. --- Rutgers --- (9-1) --- 736 --- 7
16. --- Georgia Tech --- (9-2) --- 667 --- 18
17. --- Virginia Tech --- (9-2) --- 583 --- 19
18. --- Boston College --- (9-2) --- 516 --- 20
19. --- Tennessee --- (8-3) --- 404 --- 22
20. --- Wake Forest --- (9-2) --- 355 --- 14
21. --- Brigham Young --- (9-2) --- 325 --- 23
22. --- California --- (8-3) --- 302 --- 17
23. --- Nebraska --- (8-3) --- 258 --- 24
24. --- Clemson --- (8-3) --- 122 --- 25
25. --- Hawaii --- (9-2) --- 89 --- 26
BTW, this may set up an interesting scenario if their AP #2 spot holds up post the USC-ND or SEC title games.

Let us say USC (or ND, or whomsoever) gets into the title game with us - and the Buckeyes win, but they win close.
Let us say Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl and takes out their frustrations by thrashing the lamb placed before them for slaughter (CAL, or perhaps USC should they falter).

Any chance of having a split National championship? The Buckeyes having the BCS and widely recognized championship. The Wolverines netting sufficient share of AP votes to come out on top in the renegade grand-daddy of the Polls?
 
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That AP poll just made things very interesting. They are #2 in the country, still after a loss.

Assuming there isn't a rematch, and they go to the Rose Bowl, and they win. Now think, they will be the #2 team in the nation going into that game. Their BCS rank doesn't matter.

We will probably face #3 USC, who will be ofcourse #2 in the BCS. We are #1.

Now look at if we lose to USC. They win the BCS National Championship, but will they jump Michigan in the AP poll?

Thats right............split National Champions...........again.

AP Champs: Michigan
BCS Champs: USC

Now this is all going on if we lose to USC, which won't happen. But if the unthinkable does happen?
 
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sandgk;666020; said:
Ohio State has all the first place votes - taking the one given last week to Michigan

BTW, this may set up an interesting scenario if their AP #2 spot holds up post the USC-ND or SEC title games.

Let us say USC (or ND, or whomsoever) gets into the title game with us - and the Buckeyes win, but they win close.
Let us say Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl and takes out their frustrations by thrashing the lamb placed before them for slaughter (CAL, or perhaps USC should they falter).

Any chance of having a split National championship? The Buckeyes having the BCS and widely recognized championship. The Wolverines netting sufficient share of AP votes to come out on top in the renegade grand-daddy of the Polls?

No chance of that happening. An undefeated Ohio State trumps all. Also, I know this was just an example on your part, but a 3-loss Cal team is not going anywhere but the Holiday Bowl.
 
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