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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

Two of the computer polls flipping USC and mich. will be enough for USC to overtake the 2 spot (assuming human polls remain unchanged). Considering that USC will probably gain a few more votes in each human poll with wins over ND and UCLA, it might only require one computer flipping the two.

The main reason mich. is still high in computer polls is because ND is still high. IF ND loses to USC, not only will that prop up USC, it will hurt mich.

Along the same line, USC is looking good because Arkansas continues to stay high. USC really needs Arkansas to win out and stay high in the computer polls. That would make USC's best win look even better.
 
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CleveBucks;666164; said:
The main reason mich. is still high in computer polls is because ND is still high. IF ND loses to USC, not only will that prop up USC, it will hurt mich.

Wow, I hadn't thought of that. I know a lot of people don't like the BCS, but I love little interesting things like that. Its really interesting how so many games effect other games in ways like that.
 
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What I want to know about the human polls is how the #2, #3, and #4 votes are spread amongst USC, scUM, Florida, ND, and Arkansas. I suspect that we will likely see some movement over the next two weeks that will be to scUM's disadvantage as a couple of these teams lose. For example, what happens if USC wins out and Florida loses to Arkansas in the SEC championship. How many of the voters who currently have Florida above USC would give their #2 or #3 votes to them?

Of course the bigger question is what happens in the human polls if ND beats USC? How will USC's #2 and #3 votes be distributed? Will they go to ND or to Florida, or would some even go to Michigan helping them?
 
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All I have to say is, playing scUM again would prove nothing. We already beat them and if by some strange instance they would upset us in a bowl then what does that prove? We'd have identical records and we'd have both beat the other. Nothing is settled and quite frankly that would suck. My other point is that how strange is it for a team to only drop one spot in the human polls after a loss? It seems to me most teams drop several spots no matter who the opponent. And yeah, scUM had a chance at the end, but we were clearly in control the whole game. I don't think they were as close as everyone makes it sound. Anyway, enough of my rant. I'd much rather play USC (although I can't stand that song their band plays every time they do anything remotely positive).
 
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buckeyegrad;666226; said:
What I want to know about the human polls is how the #2, #3, and #4 votes are spread amongst USC, scUM, Florida, ND, and Arkansas. I suspect that we will likely see some movement over the next two weeks that will be to scUM's disadvantage as a couple of these teams lose. For example, what happens if USC wins out and Florida loses to Arkansas in the SEC championship. How many of the voters who currently have Florida above USC would give their #2 or #3 votes to them?

Of course the bigger question is what happens in the human polls if ND beats USC? How will USC's #2 and #3 votes be distributed? Will they go to ND or to Florida, or would some even go to Michigan helping them?

I think this is exactly the point that scUM fans calling for a rematch are missing. IMO there will be a bias againist having two teams from the same conference in the title game.
 
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buckeyes_rock;666330; said:
From my point earlier, here's a prime example, West Virginia dropped from #3 down to #10 after losing at unbeaten Louisville. Why scUM only drops one spot just doesn't make sense.

Could have been that WVU had no other "quality" wins. I dont think. scUM playing us to the wire, going undefeated in the Big 10 (prior to us), and beating the crap out of highly rated (and media darling) Notre Dame had to be figured into the equation.

Plus, would you bet against scUM- even up- with any of the other one loss schools? I wouldn't. IMO they are the 2nd best team. WVU is not in the same league (literally and figuratively) and didnt deserve the same type of respect.
 
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buckeyes_rock;666330; said:
From my point earlier, here's a prime example, West Virginia dropped from #3 down to #10 after losing at unbeaten Louisville. Why scUM only drops one spot just doesn't make sense.

Because they beat the living shit out of Notre Dame in South Bend... a team that hasn't lost since... thanks mightily to John L. Smith... and there is no way you can move Notre Dame ahead of Michigan.

Because, based on what I saw with my own two eyes last night, USC and Cal are not particullary good, because Texas has a freshman quarterback, because the SEC takes turns beating each other up, because the entire ACC sucks canal water, because, when you get right down to it, the Big East isn't very good.

The probelm is once you get past Michigan there isn't much to chose from. One could argue that Wisconsin, sitting at 11 - 1 and tied for second in the conference deserves a shot at OSU. Personally I'd like to see us in the Fiesta, Michigan in the Rose and Wisky in the Cotton/Sugar/Orange and have all three win so that the conference goes 1 2 3 in the nation...

Nonetheless, it reminds me of how badly the Bucks got screwed in 1996. When they beat the last remaining unbeaten team and still didn't end up as National Champs because FSU lost their game early in the season while OSU lost theirs in November. Something there is that doesn't like to see OSU succeed.
 
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cincibuck;666357; said:
Nonetheless, it reminds me of how badly the Bucks got screwed in 1996. When they beat the last remaining unbeaten team and still didn't end up as National Champs because FSU lost their game early in the season while OSU lost theirs in November. Something there is that doesn't like to see OSU succeed.

I think you are mixing up 1998 and 1996.

In 1996, Both tOSU and Florida lost their rivalry games on the same day. We played undefeated ASU and beat them. Florida won their rematch with undefeated FSU and took the title.

In 1998, FSU lost to NC State early, and passed us when we lost to MSU late in the season. FSU got to the title game when a whole bunch of undefeated teams lost their last game of the season. Wienke broke something, and the 'noles lost to a Tennessee team that was both the luckiest and weakest NC team of the past 15 years.
 
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tibor75;666064; said:
scUM only has 1 good win on the year, and USC will equal that next week. If USC wins out, I don't think the computers will keep scUM ahead of them. The problem is that USC lost to a horrible team.

I think some folks and most of the computers would also give TSUN credit for a 'good win' against Wiscy, since they are in the top 10 and that was their only loss.

I agree that 2 wins for USC will move them above TSUN in 2 of the 5 computers that currently have USC at #3, which should jump them to BCS #2; unless they get a fluky win against ND and the voters drop them for it.

Personally I'd like to see us in the Fiesta, Michigan in the Rose and Wisky in the Cotton/Sugar/Orange and have all three win so that the conference goes 1 2 3 in the nation...

BCS rules only allow 2 teams from the same conference into the BCS.
 
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buckeyes_rock;666330; said:
From my point earlier, here's a prime example, West Virginia dropped from #3 down to #10 after losing at unbeaten Louisville. Why scUM only drops one spot just doesn't make sense.

Well, because Louisville really isn't remotely in the league of Ohio State or TSUN and TSUN knocked the crap out of Notre Dame and took us to the wire in our house.
 
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