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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

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R0CK3TM4NN;666059; said:
Tellshow BCS has UM at #2....
tellshowbcsdk7.jpg


So...if that's right, we need USC to win. And win big. Computers are in love with Michigan.
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scUM only has 1 good win on the year, and USC will equal that next week. If USC wins out, I don't think the computers will keep scUM ahead of them. The problem is that USC lost to a horrible team.
 
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tibor75;666064; said:
scUM only has 1 good win on the year, and USC will equal that next week. If USC wins out, I don't think the computers will keep scUM ahead of them. The problem is that USC lost to a horrible team.
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Arkansas winning out also helps USC's cause.
 
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Magua;666105; said:
Looks like we're in for a rematch unless USC/SEC Champ just demolishes their opponent(s).
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there is a virtual tie between michigan and usc. the differential is .007. usc plays the so-called #5 team this weekend. as long as usc wins out, they'll be in glendale. as long as usc wins out and doesn't look horrible in the process, i don't think that michigan will gain any more votes than they have now. the computers will necessarily boost usc's rankings.
 
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R0CK3TM4NN;666059; said:
Tellshow BCS has UM at #2....
tellshowbcsdk7.jpg


So...if that's right, we need USC to win. And win big. Computers are in love with Michigan.
Click to expand...

holy smokes, i think that's the first time since the advent of the BCS that ANY team has had a perfect score... which leads me to this next part.

what's the point of playing a 'Championship Game' when you already played one- especially if said CG is against a team you just beat? i have a proposal, which i suspect will get some flack directed my way, but i think it is valid none the less. let us begin with a question: outside of the $$$, why play a bowl game at all? Ohio State is CLEARLY the best team in the nation, as evidenced by their play on the field. despite the close score, the Buckeyes just beat the clear #2 team in the nation in convincing fashion, so why bother going through the motions a second time? if i had my druthers, when (notice i did not say 'if') M ends up #2 in the BCS after Dec 2, Gene Smith would decline the bowl bid on general principle, and the Buckeyes could tell the entire college football world exactly where they can shove it. we're #1, no matter what anyone thinks, and a rematch doesn't solve anything.

if M gets the BCS title game nod, i say DECLINE THE BOWL BID.
 
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lvbuckeye;666120; said:
holy smokes, i think that's the first time since the advent of the BCS that ANY team has had a perfect score... which leads me to this next part.

what's the point of playing a 'Championship Game' when you already played one- especially if said CG is against a team you just beat? i have a proposal, which i suspect will get some flack directed my way, but i think it is valid none the less. let us begin with a question: outside of the $$$, why play a bowl game at all? Ohio State is CLEARLY the best team in the nation, as evidenced by their play on the field. despite the close score, the Buckeyes just beat the clear #2 team in the nation in convincing fashion, so why bother going through the motions a second time? if i had my druthers, when (notice i did not say 'if') M ends up #2 in the BCS after Dec 2, Gene Smith would decline the bowl bid on general principle, and the Buckeyes could tell the entire college football world exactly where they can shove it. we're #1, no matter what anyone thinks, and a rematch doesn't solve anything.

if M gets the BCS title game nod, i say DECLINE THE BOWL BID.
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Declining the bowl bid will be the worst thing the university did since they declined the 1961 bid to the Rose Bowl.

Won't happen. It means too much money to the Big Ten and the University.
 
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OmahaBeef;666139; said:
So if USC wins out then we will play them? Has anyone worked out the math for this (if its possible) or is this just a guess?
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the math is fairly straightforward, but without knowing what variables the computers use, we just don't know.

As for the averages, USC needs to flip a couple computers over to rank them ahead of Michigan.

Right now Michigan has a .96 average on the computers and USC has a .92. That's the difference right now.

There are couple ways for USC to move up. Getting more 2nd place votes in the Coaches poll or the Harris poll. Beating ND and UCLA in a way to ensure that the computers move over to their side.

USC may still hold their destiny in their own hands, but basically they are at the mercy of the system if they win out.
 
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lvbuckeye;666120; said:
if i had my druthers, when (notice i did not say 'if') M ends up #2 in the BCS after Dec 2, Gene Smith would decline the bowl bid on general principle, and the Buckeyes could tell the entire college football world exactly where they can shove it. we're #1, no matter what anyone thinks, and a rematch doesn't solve anything.

if M gets the BCS title game nod, i say DECLINE THE BOWL BID.
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the victory was by only 3 on home turf. the victory, while great, was not decisive enough to consider even remotely declining the bowl bid. also, a true national champion would never refrain from playing the most worthy opposition.

furthermore, that would be worst possible signal to send to possible recruits. who wants to play for a school that doesn't want to play in the national championship game? declining the nc bowl bid would be absolutely disastrous.
 
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OmahaBeef;666139; said:
So if USC wins out then we will play them? Has anyone worked out the math for this (if its possible) or is this just a guess?
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Call it a guess if you will, for such it is. Nonetheless, it is an educated guess.

USC per tellshow now lags TSUN by .007 points. The primary reason for which is the computer ranking. Human pollsters (except the AP) already have USC as a solid #2.
If USC continues to win they will not likely lose the Harris nor the Coaches poll ranking. So all that is left is the impact of the wins USC garners over the remaining opposition when run through the computers. In that calculation, for some of the programs, Strength of Schedule is an important component. Some of the other computer programs do not explicitly rely on SOS, so this isn't a be all and end all argument. Still, a strong win over ND (ranked #5 or #6) may be ALL that SC needs to boost their BCS computer ranking over Michigan. Couple that with a demolition of UCLA, who ran ND very close earlier in the season, and this may be game set and match SC for the #2 spot in the BCS chapmionship game.

But if ND wins - all bets are off and a rematch remains a serious consideration.
 
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Can someone explain this to me?

Go to this site: http://www.tellshowbcs.com/bcsc.html

Click on "computer ave" and see:

Team.......................KM......JS.....RB.....ST.....PW.....WC.....Rank.....Pts
1 Ohio State................1........1.......1.........2........1.........1........1.00.......1.00
2 Michigan...................2........2.......2.........1........2........ 3........2.00.......0.96
3 Southern Cal............3........3.......3.........3........3........2.........3.00......0.92


How is Michigan still #1 in the Anderson & Hester poll?
 
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