Well no… if the averages hold we aren’t a terrible offense we just struggle in the red zone.
Where did I ever say we are a terrible offense? The offense wobbled against IU and wasn't as efficient as it normally is. That caused a bad result. The number of opportunities was not the issue, it was execution of the opportunities they had. Process was good, result just turned out bad.
Who knows what that answer is for the red zone but even so we are in the top 50 for red zone anyway. Using your analogy if we knew we won our share of the time (which this offense does) you’d certainly want to play it right because if you do you’ll win more often than not.
Offense is linear, if you have a per play advantage then more plays is good. Unfortunately the other side of the ball, defense is not linear, more reps for opponent offense is more chance for variance to bite your defense. I don't know how else to say it so you can understand it.
If it was poker, and you had a skill advantage you want more hands per hour so your advantage gets maximum leverage. It isn't poker, when you have to play defense in football, the opponent gets an odds boost no matter how good your defense is.
If you want an analogy; I am telling you that craps is the game in the casino that has the best odds for you as a player. You still want to go play roulette because you can get more spins in per hour.
If the goal is to get to 21 which will likely be enough the rest of the way. Then we need to do either 1 of 3 things. We need to be more explosive to avoid the red zone all together, we need to have more possessions so we can get to this magic 21 point total, or figure out how to be more efficient.
You are again conflating outcome with process. Efficient is the key, 21 points is a result. More possessions does not help
if you are not efficient in the first place, you are voluntarily taking the worst odds and giving your opponent a chance to posses the ball more. Again, when making mistakes, don't go faster. Slow down, fix your execution errors and then more possessions (not plays) helps.
Avoiding the red zone all together would be ideal but if not then hedge your bets. Get the ball to the players most likely to score which certainly isn’t playing 4 TE.
All this to say I doubt we keep doing what we did all year in the red zone. If we do then we are asking for it that’s for sure. Having JJ and Tate is like having two pocket aces.
These are all ideas on how to be more efficient and score. Now you are on the right track...process, not results.
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