It was a good week for the SEC‘s chances of getting at least 5 bids.
Notre Dame - lost at Miami and hosting aTm early, only good win is USC, just beat Navy and play at Pitt. If they win out, could be in a beauty contest against a 2-loss SEC team.
Group of 5 (1 and only 1 spot): MAC and Conference USA have no 1-loss teams and are virtually eliminated.
- AAC - 5 teams have 1 conference loss, and North Texas is the only team with only that loss.
- MtnWest - All have 2+ losses, since San Diego State just lost at Hawai’i. They still host Boise State, and they are the only teams with only 1 conference loss.
- Sun Belt - James Madison is the only 1-loss team. If they win out they could be the only 1-loss team in the Group-of-5.
ACC: Virginia just lost to Wake, and they have an official non-conference loss (yes, I know) to NC State
Ga Tech (1 conf loss) hosts Pitt and UGA, they are the only team with 1 total loss
Louisville (loss to Cal is 2nd in conference) beat Miami and Pitt, still has to play at SMU
Pitt (1 conf loss to L’ville, 1 to WVU) plays at GT, hosts ND and Miami
Duke and SMU both have 1 conference loss, but 4 and 3 overall losses, respectively.
Since they now can‘t get two 11-1 teams into the CCG, I don‘t see them getting 2 teams unless GT beats UGA.
BIG XII: BYU got their first loss at Texas Tech, still play at Cincy
Texas Tech has a loss to Arizona St, a win at Utah and beat BYU
Cincy (1 conf loss at Utah, loss to Nebraska) hosts BYU with a chance to make the CCG
All others have 2 or more conference losses. I think their best shot at 2 teams is if BYU wins a rematch against Texas Tech in the CCG.
B1G: tOSU just needs to avoid a total collapse to get in. Winning out gets the #1 seed.
Indiana will host Wiscy and plays at Purdue. They should still be in the top-3 when they play in the CCG.
Oregon (home loss to Indy) won at Iowa, hosts Minny and USC and finishes at Washington. They can only afford 1 more loss.
USC and TTUN all have 1 conference loss and 2 total losses, and need to win out to be considered for the CFP.
Washington lost at Wiscy for their 3rd loss. Iowa got their 3rd loss to Oregon.
SEC: aTm is the only unbeaten, they beat ND early, just won ant Missouri, and they play at Texas.
Bama’s loss is to “15th-place-in-the-ACC“ FSU; they won at UGA and Mizzou, beat Vandy and Tenn, still to host Oklahoma. Should be in the CCG and the CFP.
Ole Miss lost at UGA and won at Oklahoma. Should win out, hosting Florida and going to Miss St. Would finish 11-1 and would probably miss the CCG but easily make the CFP.
UGA lost to Bama and won at Tenn and at home against Ole Miss. Still host Texas and play at Ga Tech. Will probably miss the CCG but at 10-2 would likely make the CFP. Have a chance at a bye at 11-1.
Texas lost at tOSU and at Florida. Need to win out with at UGA and hosting aTm, which would likely put them into CCG. A third loss in the CCG might not knock them out of the CFP, as they would be the highest ranked 3-loss team.
Oklahoma lost vs Texas and at Ole Miss. Need to win at Bama and then against Mizzou and LSU to finish 10-2.
Vandy beat Mizzou, lost at Texas and at Bama. If they win out including at Tennessee, they’d be the least impressive 10-2 SEC team.
Mizzou got their 3rd loss to aTm (by 21 points) and should be done.
12 spots:
Guaranteed - Group of 5 highest ranked Champ, ACC Champ, BiG XII Champ
Highly likely: tOSU, Indiana, aTm, Bama
Probable: Oregon, Ole Miss, Notre Dame
Last 2 spots: Lots of possibilities, with Georgia being the most likely, along with a team getting its second loss in a CCG in the ACC or Big XII
