"Betting on himself" is the right way to put it – it's a definite risk with an unknown reward.
Instead, he should be "investing in himself." Here's what I mean....
There are two types of prospects who should always take the largest "bag":
(1) The kids who are going to be NFL stars regardless of where they go to school. For example, Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs. That's less than one percent of prospects; and
(2) The kids who have no reasonable chance to have a significant NFL career. That's at least 95% of prospects.
It's the kids in the middle 4-5% who really need to think about investing for the future rather than taking the biggest bag now.
If Ohio State offers a prospect $500k less than another school, that prospect needs to consider if "investing" that $500k in an Ohio State football "education" will make him a more marketable commodity in the NFL – in other words, will "earn" him more down the road than the $500k that he is leaving on the table now. Certainly, Ohio State has used that sales pitch on WR recruits who believe that learning to play the position from Brian Hartline will "pay dividends" at the next level. (Most everyone who goes to college uses a similar calculus – pay for an education to get a better job upon graduation.)
Part of the problem is that many kids in the 4-5% middle category think that they're in the top 0.1%. It will be interesting to see how often NIL money will enhance careers ... and how often it will ruin careers.
I agree but disagree also with your points.
You’re making it seem that these financial decisions are based solely on football. A kid getting an extra $500k is LIFE changing money! If You make the NFL or not, that can erase a lot of family debt and set up a kids life extremely well if he invests it intelligently. And contrary to what many believe, a good number of kids are getting sound financial advice. Getting the biggest bag now is still a very smart decision for a lot of kids, especially if you’re a 3star and may never see the field at a place like OSU. And I’m sure many of these kids don’t come from the best environments either, so it’s easy for us grown ups on a message board to tell them to just give up on half a million dollars to maybe Play at OSU.
And kids go to college and also have jobs which these athletes can’t have. So yes, they go in hopes of getting better jobs at graduation, but being able to work also helps. Also having much more free time to work more hours also helps. And I don’t know of any parent that would tell their child to not take a higher pay check from a company compared to another company. Weatherspoon is going to UNC, not Lackawanna Community college, he can still make the NFL. So can Noah Rogers who transferred from OSU to NC State
