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LGHL Behind Enemy Lines: Checking in on Ohio State’s opening week opponent the Indiana Hoosiers
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Behind Enemy Lines: Checking in on Ohio State’s opening week opponent the Indiana Hoosiers
meganhusslein via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Indiana should be a nice season opener for the Buckeyes.
From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about checking in on Ohio State’s opponents. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”Behind Enemy Line” articles here.
In less than two months, Ohio State will kick off its season at Indiana. It should be a nice way to ease into the season for the Bucks, as, how do I put this delicately, Indiana is not good. The past two years the Hoosiers have suffered losing seasons, and this year could be their third-straight. Let’s dig into the downfall of this program.
Indiana started the 2022 season on a high note, winning its first three games. No one expected much out of the Hoosiers, so it was a nice surprise. But then, reality kicked in and the rain began to fall on their parade. They went on to lose their next seven-straight games, including a 56-14 heart-crusher against Ohio State.
However, they rose from the ashes after switching quarterbacks for the Michigan State game, and actually won the Brass Spittoon in overtime. Alas, it was a one-game-wonder and they looked like their regular selves for the final game of the year against Purdue, which they lost 30-16, finishing the year 4-8.
After the season, the Hoosiers lost about 20 players to the transfer portal. So what should we expect from them in 2023?
1. ??? at the QB position
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24787877/1245179217.jpg "COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 26 Purdue at Indiana")
Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The quarterback that I mentioned who played hero against Sparty, Dexter Williams, ended up severely injuring his knee against Purdue. He is a big rushing quarterback, and it resulted in a big injury, as he suffered a dislocated knee along with structural damage. At first, he was told he would be out for an entire year, but he has been running in spring practice. Still, it’s looking like he won’t be able to start the season.
Therefore, the QB race is a tight one between Brendan Sorsby and redshirt freshmen Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson. Jackson is actually former IU basketball star’s Trayce Jackson-Davis’ younger brother. Two other QBs on the roster transferred, leaving Williams, Jackson, Sorsby and true freshman Broc Lowry — a three-star recruit that was ranked the No. 25 pocket passer in the country by ESPN, and he was the top quarterback in Ohio in the class of 2023.
Jackson and Sorsby played no meaningful time last year, so it’s truly a mystery what either of them will bring. Whoever it is will have little to no collegiate experience, so that is certainly something to keep an eye on.
2. Tough schedule
It’s unfortunate for the Hoosiers they have to open their season against the Buckeyes, but I don’t see Ohio State fans complaining! Between that game, Louisville, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State, it is not an easy path for Indiana. Some sites predict it will finish with as little as three wins. Yikes.
3. Defense literally CANNOT be any worse than last year
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24787879/1244651376.jpg "COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 08 Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan")
Photo by Joseph Weiser/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Indiana was the worst team in the Big Ten when it came to total defense and pass defense (among other things). There was a big influx of transfers, so while there may be a large amount of newbie starts on D, it could be a much-needed fresh start. Western Michigan transfer Andre Carter, a sixth-year defensive end, will provide a leadership role while being a big-time playmaker, the spark that Indiana desperately needs.
Overall, what shall we make of their season? It really is a big question mark. It could be a mediocre season or just really terrible. Personally, I think these new players from the portal and a brand-new QB could be the clean slate this team needs, and I think they finish with five wins. Truly, only time will tell, but the Buckeyes’ should have fun beating the Hoosiers on both sides of the ball.
Continue reading...
meganhusslein via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Indiana should be a nice season opener for the Buckeyes.
From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about checking in on Ohio State’s opponents. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”Behind Enemy Line” articles here.
In less than two months, Ohio State will kick off its season at Indiana. It should be a nice way to ease into the season for the Bucks, as, how do I put this delicately, Indiana is not good. The past two years the Hoosiers have suffered losing seasons, and this year could be their third-straight. Let’s dig into the downfall of this program.
Indiana started the 2022 season on a high note, winning its first three games. No one expected much out of the Hoosiers, so it was a nice surprise. But then, reality kicked in and the rain began to fall on their parade. They went on to lose their next seven-straight games, including a 56-14 heart-crusher against Ohio State.
However, they rose from the ashes after switching quarterbacks for the Michigan State game, and actually won the Brass Spittoon in overtime. Alas, it was a one-game-wonder and they looked like their regular selves for the final game of the year against Purdue, which they lost 30-16, finishing the year 4-8.
After the season, the Hoosiers lost about 20 players to the transfer portal. So what should we expect from them in 2023?
1. ??? at the QB position
The quarterback that I mentioned who played hero against Sparty, Dexter Williams, ended up severely injuring his knee against Purdue. He is a big rushing quarterback, and it resulted in a big injury, as he suffered a dislocated knee along with structural damage. At first, he was told he would be out for an entire year, but he has been running in spring practice. Still, it’s looking like he won’t be able to start the season.
Therefore, the QB race is a tight one between Brendan Sorsby and redshirt freshmen Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson. Jackson is actually former IU basketball star’s Trayce Jackson-Davis’ younger brother. Two other QBs on the roster transferred, leaving Williams, Jackson, Sorsby and true freshman Broc Lowry — a three-star recruit that was ranked the No. 25 pocket passer in the country by ESPN, and he was the top quarterback in Ohio in the class of 2023.
Jackson and Sorsby played no meaningful time last year, so it’s truly a mystery what either of them will bring. Whoever it is will have little to no collegiate experience, so that is certainly something to keep an eye on.
2. Tough schedule
It’s unfortunate for the Hoosiers they have to open their season against the Buckeyes, but I don’t see Ohio State fans complaining! Between that game, Louisville, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State, it is not an easy path for Indiana. Some sites predict it will finish with as little as three wins. Yikes.
3. Defense literally CANNOT be any worse than last year
Indiana was the worst team in the Big Ten when it came to total defense and pass defense (among other things). There was a big influx of transfers, so while there may be a large amount of newbie starts on D, it could be a much-needed fresh start. Western Michigan transfer Andre Carter, a sixth-year defensive end, will provide a leadership role while being a big-time playmaker, the spark that Indiana desperately needs.
Overall, what shall we make of their season? It really is a big question mark. It could be a mediocre season or just really terrible. Personally, I think these new players from the portal and a brand-new QB could be the clean slate this team needs, and I think they finish with five wins. Truly, only time will tell, but the Buckeyes’ should have fun beating the Hoosiers on both sides of the ball.
Continue reading...
LGHL Ohio State Football Countdown: 49
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Ohio State Football Countdown: 49
Gene Ross via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
One play or big moment per day as we count down to the start of Ohio State’s 2023 football season.
As we count down to the start of the 2023 season, we will be looking back at one play or big moment in Ohio State history over the past decade or so that corresponds to the remaining days left until Buckeyes take the field against Indiana on Sept. 2. There are 49 days remaining.
I’m going to be honest: until I started looking for plays for this countdown, I had zero recollection of this game ever happening. Maybe it was my brain wanting to forget everything about the 2018 Ohio State defense, but alas this long Mike Weber run was still pretty sweet and does make the cut. Weber finished the afternoon with 183 yards and three touchdowns as the Buckeyes beat up on the Beavers, 77-31. Dwayne Haskins threw for over 300 yards with five TDs through the air, while Terry McLaurin had a big day as well with four catches for 121 yards and two scores.
Continue reading...
Gene Ross via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
One play or big moment per day as we count down to the start of Ohio State’s 2023 football season.
As we count down to the start of the 2023 season, we will be looking back at one play or big moment in Ohio State history over the past decade or so that corresponds to the remaining days left until Buckeyes take the field against Indiana on Sept. 2. There are 49 days remaining.
Play of the Day: Mike Weber’s 49-yard TD vs. Oregon State (2018)
I’m going to be honest: until I started looking for plays for this countdown, I had zero recollection of this game ever happening. Maybe it was my brain wanting to forget everything about the 2018 Ohio State defense, but alas this long Mike Weber run was still pretty sweet and does make the cut. Weber finished the afternoon with 183 yards and three touchdowns as the Buckeyes beat up on the Beavers, 77-31. Dwayne Haskins threw for over 300 yards with five TDs through the air, while Terry McLaurin had a big day as well with four catches for 121 yards and two scores.
Players to Wear the #49 (since 2010):
- Adam Homan (2009-12)
- Craig Cataline (2012-13)
- Sam Hubbard (2014)
- Liam McCullough (2015-19)
- Patrick Gurd (2020-present)
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LGHL You’re Nuts: Which area of the game needs the most attention for Ohio State men’s basketball?
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You’re Nuts: Which area of the game needs the most attention for Ohio State men’s basketball?
Connor Lemons via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Joseph Scheller/Columbus Dispatc / USA TODAY NETWORK
This team was certainly not without flaws last year, but is there one area that could be fixed to really turn this around in the fall?
The Basketball Tournament is descending upon us, but we’ll take a one-week break from that and return to TBT talk next week. Last week, we debated which non-Carmen’s Crew squad you should pay attention to during TBT this year.
Connor pointed you all towards Shell Shock, the Maryland alumni team. Justin picked the Happy Valley Hoopers, the Penn State alumni team. Unfortunately for us, we also provided an option of “You want us to care about either of these teams?” And look at that, that choice won!
13% of the people sided with Connor, 25% agreed with Justin and the remaining 62% of you degenerates picked the “You want me to care about either of these teams?” option. Lesson learned!
Justin- 46
We are diverting our gaze away from the alumni teams and over to the current Ohio State men’s basketball team this week. Clearly, with a 16-19 record, there are some areas that need attention if Chris Holtmann and the Buckeyes want to have a bounce-back season and reach the lofty heights that both they and the fanbase have set for them. But which of these areas is most crucial? Which area could be improved on that would help this team succeed the most?
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24512828/usa_today_20201854.jpg "NCAA Basketball: Big Ten Conference Tournament Semifinals Purdue vs. Ohio State")
David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio State stunk on defense last season — stunk to high hell. But I don’t need to tell you the obvious, we all watched. We know it, the Ohio State coaching staff knows it, and every other Big Ten team knows it. Teams were able to drive to the basket against the Buckeyes far too often this past season, or in the very least blow past their defender to draw a double team, which would lead to a kick-out for an open three. It can’t happen.
Luckily, I think this team is going to get better on that end simply because of who they lost from the roster and who they picked up.
While both guys contributed meaningful minutes on the offense end, Brice Sensabaugh and Sean McNeil were the Buckeyes’ two worst defenders last season. Sensabaugh in particular was picked on as the season wore on. Teams would get the ball to whoever he was guarding, and if Ohio State tried to change the assignment, the other team would set screens and move around to make sure someone was running downhill at Sensabaugh towards the basket. And, while it was clear he was making an effort to get better, he just didn’t get a whole lot better.
McNeil was similar, although his deficiency was more a lack of foot speed to slide and stay with opponents than anything else. McNeil didn’t look clueless on defense, he just wasn’t uber-athletic and able to keep up all the time. Sensabaugh (unfortunately) had both issues.
Justice Sueing, Gene Brown, and Isaac Likekele — the latter two of which were lauded as plus defenders for most of their careers — also had some tough spots on defense last season. All three are now gone from the program.
In their place, Ohio State has added Dale Bonner — a defense-first, senior guard from Baylor whose minutes will likely be determined by the defensive impact he has in different lineups. They added Jamison Battle — a lefty wing who has scored a bunch of buckets at George Washington and Minnesota, but whose defense has neither stunk nor shined — it’s just been fine.
They also added Evan Mahaffey, a sophomore forward from Penn State who statistically was included in all of Penn State’s best defensive lineups last season, based on +/-. And finally, they brought in a freshman class that included Scotty Middleton, a lanky off-ball guard who’s as excited to get after it on defense as I am to get to the front of the line at Graeter’s.
The Buckeyes finished No. 106 in defensive efficiency last season — a horrendous mark. Teams that finish outside of the top 25 in defensive efficiency don’t make it far in the tournament every year. Teams outside of the top 50 are lucky to even win a game.
I expect some improvement from the sophomore class, but I also think the “trades” this team made on their roster will make Ohio State a much better defensive team. At any given point, the Buckeyes are likely to have at least three of Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle, Dale Bonner, Scotty Middleton, and Felix Okpara on the floor. Because of that, I just don’t think there are as many bad defensive lineups this team could throw on the floor — unlike last season.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24680741/usa_today_20729208.jpg "Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch")
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
When it comes to the current state of Ohio State basketball, it is pretty easy to point out what is going good and what is going bad.
Outside of last season, which was one where pretty much everything went wrong, the good is the player development, the recruiting and the consistency of being in the top half of the Big Ten. The bad is the program has not had much success in March, and haven’t truly contended for a Big Ten championship.
One issue that has not helped the Buckeyes when March rolls around is losing games they shouldn’t lose in conference play. And this is a little bit of a stale complaint because conference play is grueling and you will inevitably lose a game or two that is not going to look great on the resume.
However, a sequence that happened during the 2021-22 season is a good example of what the Buckeyes should work on moving forward.
On Feb. 24, the Buckeyes defeated Illinois at Illinois after beating Indiana in overtime the game before. This was a huge win and propelled them into a tie at the top of the Big Ten. They immediately followed that up by losing to an average Maryland team and a bad Nebraska team at home. And that dropped them out of the Big Ten conference championship race after losing two bad games.
It also hurts seeding in the tournament. Let’s say the Buckeyes win those two games. They likely are a 5 or 6 seed instead of a 7 seed, and they would avoid playing Villanova, who went to the Final Four.
Bad losses can cause a domino effect, and we have seen that over the last three or four seasons.
Continue reading...
Connor Lemons via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Joseph Scheller/Columbus Dispatc / USA TODAY NETWORK
This team was certainly not without flaws last year, but is there one area that could be fixed to really turn this around in the fall?
The Basketball Tournament is descending upon us, but we’ll take a one-week break from that and return to TBT talk next week. Last week, we debated which non-Carmen’s Crew squad you should pay attention to during TBT this year.
Connor pointed you all towards Shell Shock, the Maryland alumni team. Justin picked the Happy Valley Hoopers, the Penn State alumni team. Unfortunately for us, we also provided an option of “You want us to care about either of these teams?” And look at that, that choice won!
13% of the people sided with Connor, 25% agreed with Justin and the remaining 62% of you degenerates picked the “You want me to care about either of these teams?” option. Lesson learned!
After 108 weeks:
Justin- 46
Connor- 46
Other- 12
(There have been four ties)
We are diverting our gaze away from the alumni teams and over to the current Ohio State men’s basketball team this week. Clearly, with a 16-19 record, there are some areas that need attention if Chris Holtmann and the Buckeyes want to have a bounce-back season and reach the lofty heights that both they and the fanbase have set for them. But which of these areas is most crucial? Which area could be improved on that would help this team succeed the most?
Today’s Question: Which area of the game needs the most attention for Ohio State men’s basketball?
Connor: On-ball defense
Ohio State stunk on defense last season — stunk to high hell. But I don’t need to tell you the obvious, we all watched. We know it, the Ohio State coaching staff knows it, and every other Big Ten team knows it. Teams were able to drive to the basket against the Buckeyes far too often this past season, or in the very least blow past their defender to draw a double team, which would lead to a kick-out for an open three. It can’t happen.
Luckily, I think this team is going to get better on that end simply because of who they lost from the roster and who they picked up.
While both guys contributed meaningful minutes on the offense end, Brice Sensabaugh and Sean McNeil were the Buckeyes’ two worst defenders last season. Sensabaugh in particular was picked on as the season wore on. Teams would get the ball to whoever he was guarding, and if Ohio State tried to change the assignment, the other team would set screens and move around to make sure someone was running downhill at Sensabaugh towards the basket. And, while it was clear he was making an effort to get better, he just didn’t get a whole lot better.
McNeil was similar, although his deficiency was more a lack of foot speed to slide and stay with opponents than anything else. McNeil didn’t look clueless on defense, he just wasn’t uber-athletic and able to keep up all the time. Sensabaugh (unfortunately) had both issues.
Justice Sueing, Gene Brown, and Isaac Likekele — the latter two of which were lauded as plus defenders for most of their careers — also had some tough spots on defense last season. All three are now gone from the program.
In their place, Ohio State has added Dale Bonner — a defense-first, senior guard from Baylor whose minutes will likely be determined by the defensive impact he has in different lineups. They added Jamison Battle — a lefty wing who has scored a bunch of buckets at George Washington and Minnesota, but whose defense has neither stunk nor shined — it’s just been fine.
They also added Evan Mahaffey, a sophomore forward from Penn State who statistically was included in all of Penn State’s best defensive lineups last season, based on +/-. And finally, they brought in a freshman class that included Scotty Middleton, a lanky off-ball guard who’s as excited to get after it on defense as I am to get to the front of the line at Graeter’s.
The Buckeyes finished No. 106 in defensive efficiency last season — a horrendous mark. Teams that finish outside of the top 25 in defensive efficiency don’t make it far in the tournament every year. Teams outside of the top 50 are lucky to even win a game.
I expect some improvement from the sophomore class, but I also think the “trades” this team made on their roster will make Ohio State a much better defensive team. At any given point, the Buckeyes are likely to have at least three of Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle, Dale Bonner, Scotty Middleton, and Felix Okpara on the floor. Because of that, I just don’t think there are as many bad defensive lineups this team could throw on the floor — unlike last season.
Justin: Consistency
When it comes to the current state of Ohio State basketball, it is pretty easy to point out what is going good and what is going bad.
Outside of last season, which was one where pretty much everything went wrong, the good is the player development, the recruiting and the consistency of being in the top half of the Big Ten. The bad is the program has not had much success in March, and haven’t truly contended for a Big Ten championship.
One issue that has not helped the Buckeyes when March rolls around is losing games they shouldn’t lose in conference play. And this is a little bit of a stale complaint because conference play is grueling and you will inevitably lose a game or two that is not going to look great on the resume.
However, a sequence that happened during the 2021-22 season is a good example of what the Buckeyes should work on moving forward.
On Feb. 24, the Buckeyes defeated Illinois at Illinois after beating Indiana in overtime the game before. This was a huge win and propelled them into a tie at the top of the Big Ten. They immediately followed that up by losing to an average Maryland team and a bad Nebraska team at home. And that dropped them out of the Big Ten conference championship race after losing two bad games.
It also hurts seeding in the tournament. Let’s say the Buckeyes win those two games. They likely are a 5 or 6 seed instead of a 7 seed, and they would avoid playing Villanova, who went to the Final Four.
Bad losses can cause a domino effect, and we have seen that over the last three or four seasons.
Continue reading...
LGHL Buckeyes in the NFL: 2023 Fantasy Football Preview — J.K. Dobbins
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Buckeyes in the NFL: 2023 Fantasy Football Preview — J.K. Dobbins
Josh Dooley via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Supremely talented and highly productive when healthy, Dobbins is looking to ball out and stay on the field in a contract year. If he achieves both, the former Buckeye has RB1 potential.
The Baltimore Ravens have historically loved running the football. Even in recent seasons, they have remained committed to pounding the rock while many other teams have chosen to air it out early, often, and without hesitation. Fully committed to the bit, Baltimore led the NFL in rushing attempts per game for three straight seasons (2018-2020), before dropping to third (2021) and then sixth (2022).
But if mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson had been fully healthy in ‘21 and ‘22, the Ravens likely would have made it five-straight seasons leading the league in totes. So love(d) might be an understatement.
Sounds like the perfect situation and/or environment for both J.K. Dobbins and his fantasy football owners, right? Because not only does Baltimore love to run the ball, but the front office also invested heavily (pick No. 55 in the 2020 NFL Draft) in JK2K, presumably hoping the former Buckeye would become a genuine workhorse — something they had not done since taking Ray Rice No. 55 overall in 2008. And for what it’s worth, Dobbins is and has been the team’s most talented running back since the day he was drafted.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24757486/1454238802.jpg)
Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images
But wait, there’s more! Despite having a perpetually banged-up franchise QB and depth issues at RB, the Ravens did not really address their backfield this past offseason. Sure, they signed Keaton Mitchell as an undrafted free agent, but the rookie runner out of East Carolina is not a needle mover. So in addition to being his team’s most talented RB, Dobbins also faces very little competition on paper.
Why then, given Dobbins’ undeniable talent and all of the information above, is Ohio State’s only 2,000-yard rusher a risky fantasy football target? Why is he not even inside the top-10 of most RB rankings?
Well, for starters, Dobbins has not been the most durable guy in Baltimore. Far from it, actually. He suffered a gruesome knee injury prior to the 2021 season, which has unfortunately limited him to just eight games since his stellar rookie season (2020). 23, as in the number of games played by Dobbins across three seasons, is a huge red flag for fantasy owners and a massive bummer for both Dobbins and the Ravens. But it is also a very real and very concerning number that must be factored into his overall value — in fantasy and/or real life, both of which are implied moving forward.
Also working against Dobbins is or has been the fact that Baltimore loves to run the football... with Jackson, that is. And every other RB they can find. The Ravens do not discriminate when handing the ball off, but Jackson keeping it has been the biggest blow to Dobbins’ perceived value.
The freshly-minted quarter-billionaire (Jackson) has rushed for over 2,500 yards since the latter entered the league, eliminating any need for a three-down workhorse. While Dobbins is clearly the most talented running back in Charm City, Jackson has an argument as its most talented runner.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24757490/1244194769.jpg)
Set Number: x164204 TK1
50/50 shot Jackson kept this ball
The last knock against Dobbins that I want to bring up in this piece is pass-catching. Or lack thereof. He does not have hands of stone, but I would never refer to him as a Christian McCaffery-type either. And even if the Ravens’ RB did have CMC’s skillset, it likely wouldn’t matter a lick. Because Baltimore has not thrown the ball a ton with Jackson at QB, and one or the other (team or QB) seems to hate receivers out of the backfield.
Dobbins only has 25 receptions in 23 regular season games, cratering his value in the eyes of some. If you are Kyle Shanahan or a fantasy football player looking for a PPR stud, the former Buckeye is likely not your guy. But more on this later...
So if Dobbins’ volume fluctuates and even disappears at times, and he has proven to be unreliable in an offense that does feature backs as pass catchers, why in the heck should you or I draft him in fantasy football? The answer to that question is pretty simple and straightforward: Because Dobbins is a wildly efficient scoring machine when he does play, and we should be very motivated to not only play but play well as he seeks a new contract. Also, he’s a Buckeye and he’s awesome. But you likely want stats and all that jazz, and I get that.
As a rookie in 2020, Dobbins found paydirt seven times in the eight regular season games during which he received 11 or more carries. He also added two 2PT conversions. However, once the Ravens reached the postseason, handcuffs were placed back on Dobbins, and he totaled just 19 carries in the team’s two playoff games combined. He did, however, add two more TDs.
That adds up to Dobbins producing 11 total TD on 175 touches as a rookie, scoring at a higher rate than all players not named Jalen Hurts last season (and Taysom Hill, but he doesn’t count). Sample size, regression factor, blah blah blah... I get it. The now fourth-year RB is not likely to replicate his rookie-season scoring efficiency, but evidence of elite production exists. And keep in mind: despite appearing in 15 regular season games in 2020, Dobbins scored these TD primarily as a backup!
Starts may have been ceremonial in Baltimore, but he was only credited with one, according to PFF. He played on just 46 percent of the Ravens’ offensive snaps as a rookie, suggesting a much (much) higher ceiling if he were to start something like 12, 14, even 17 games.
After missing all of 2021 due to injury, Dobbins returned in Week 3 of the 2022 season and was clearly a shell of himself. He played parts of four games before going back on the shelf, only to return again in Week 14. Seemingly healthy for the first time in nearly two years, the former Buckeye by way of Texas then went on a four-game tear of sorts. Dobbins rarely found the endzone during this month-long stretch (a single TD) but he was arguably as explosive as ever. He averaged a robust 6.9 yards per carry (go ahead, say it) in December and helped Baltimore reach the playoff without their franchise QB.
Each of Dobbins’ two healthy-ish seasons provides a different glimmer of hope that he can develop into a consistent ‘star’ for both the Ravens and fantasy football players. Another reason that I am somewhat bullish on his future fantasy potential in particular is something I hinted at or alluded to earlier...
Baltimore recently dumped Greg Roman as the team’s offensive coordinator and hired Former Georgia OC Todd Monken to take his place. Monken, a bit of a coaching nomad, has been hit-or-miss as a playcaller, so success is not guaranteed. But he likes to throw the ball, and he did wonders for the boys in Athens. More importantly, Monken acknowledges that a QB with wheels is not required by some football law to use them frequently.
So it’s possible that Jackson runs less in 2023 (and beyond) and instead hands the ball off more, while also targeting his guys out of the backfield with regularity. This would be a huge boost to Dobbins’ value.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24757491/1236013504.jpg)
Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
“Hey Lamar, can you pull it down and run this time!?”
The case for targeting Dobbins early and often in fantasy drafts is not a strong one. He hasn’t been able to stay on the field, and until we see proof of concept, why should we believe that Jackson is not going to pilfer 800+ yards and 6+ TD from the Ravens’ backfield? But I am not encouraging anybody to take Dobbins in the first round. Hell, I wouldn’t touch him in round two or round three either. I would, however, start to look at JK2K in the fourth round. At that point he becomes a potential steal and/or league-winner.
Not to sound crazy or like too much of a homer, but imagine if Dobbins averages 5.3 YPC on 15 carries per game. That is a 10% drop-off from his career YPC average and right in line with how often he carried the ball last December. Those averages would give him over 1,300 rushing yards for a full season (Saquon Barkley finished fourth in 2022 with 1,312). 15 carries per game for 16 or 17 games would also put him at 240-255 carries for a full season. And since we know that Dobbins only needed 175 total touches to rack up 11 TD as a rookie, one could reasonably expect Dobbins to find the endzone 12+ times with a full workload.
Even factoring in regression. All of this would amount to a heck of a real-life and fantasy stat line, without a single pass being caught in the revamped Baltimore offense! Hose me down, because this former Buckeye is starting to look like a first-rounder.
In all likelihood, Dobbins will see his usual volume and perhaps even miss a few games. Such is life. But he will definitely be chasing a second contract, which should serve as extra motivation to ball out and be available (not that he could be blamed for a knee injury). There is obvious risk in drafting Dobbins... There is also plenty of upside. His early ADP is right around No. 50 overall (RB15-25) but I’m just not seeing it. I will be targeting him in the 35-40 range, and I would encourage others to do the same.
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Supremely talented and highly productive when healthy, Dobbins is looking to ball out and stay on the field in a contract year. If he achieves both, the former Buckeye has RB1 potential.
The Baltimore Ravens have historically loved running the football. Even in recent seasons, they have remained committed to pounding the rock while many other teams have chosen to air it out early, often, and without hesitation. Fully committed to the bit, Baltimore led the NFL in rushing attempts per game for three straight seasons (2018-2020), before dropping to third (2021) and then sixth (2022).
But if mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson had been fully healthy in ‘21 and ‘22, the Ravens likely would have made it five-straight seasons leading the league in totes. So love(d) might be an understatement.
Sounds like the perfect situation and/or environment for both J.K. Dobbins and his fantasy football owners, right? Because not only does Baltimore love to run the ball, but the front office also invested heavily (pick No. 55 in the 2020 NFL Draft) in JK2K, presumably hoping the former Buckeye would become a genuine workhorse — something they had not done since taking Ray Rice No. 55 overall in 2008. And for what it’s worth, Dobbins is and has been the team’s most talented running back since the day he was drafted.
But wait, there’s more! Despite having a perpetually banged-up franchise QB and depth issues at RB, the Ravens did not really address their backfield this past offseason. Sure, they signed Keaton Mitchell as an undrafted free agent, but the rookie runner out of East Carolina is not a needle mover. So in addition to being his team’s most talented RB, Dobbins also faces very little competition on paper.
Why then, given Dobbins’ undeniable talent and all of the information above, is Ohio State’s only 2,000-yard rusher a risky fantasy football target? Why is he not even inside the top-10 of most RB rankings?
Well, for starters, Dobbins has not been the most durable guy in Baltimore. Far from it, actually. He suffered a gruesome knee injury prior to the 2021 season, which has unfortunately limited him to just eight games since his stellar rookie season (2020). 23, as in the number of games played by Dobbins across three seasons, is a huge red flag for fantasy owners and a massive bummer for both Dobbins and the Ravens. But it is also a very real and very concerning number that must be factored into his overall value — in fantasy and/or real life, both of which are implied moving forward.
Also working against Dobbins is or has been the fact that Baltimore loves to run the football... with Jackson, that is. And every other RB they can find. The Ravens do not discriminate when handing the ball off, but Jackson keeping it has been the biggest blow to Dobbins’ perceived value.
The freshly-minted quarter-billionaire (Jackson) has rushed for over 2,500 yards since the latter entered the league, eliminating any need for a three-down workhorse. While Dobbins is clearly the most talented running back in Charm City, Jackson has an argument as its most talented runner.
50/50 shot Jackson kept this ball
The last knock against Dobbins that I want to bring up in this piece is pass-catching. Or lack thereof. He does not have hands of stone, but I would never refer to him as a Christian McCaffery-type either. And even if the Ravens’ RB did have CMC’s skillset, it likely wouldn’t matter a lick. Because Baltimore has not thrown the ball a ton with Jackson at QB, and one or the other (team or QB) seems to hate receivers out of the backfield.
Dobbins only has 25 receptions in 23 regular season games, cratering his value in the eyes of some. If you are Kyle Shanahan or a fantasy football player looking for a PPR stud, the former Buckeye is likely not your guy. But more on this later...
So if Dobbins’ volume fluctuates and even disappears at times, and he has proven to be unreliable in an offense that does feature backs as pass catchers, why in the heck should you or I draft him in fantasy football? The answer to that question is pretty simple and straightforward: Because Dobbins is a wildly efficient scoring machine when he does play, and we should be very motivated to not only play but play well as he seeks a new contract. Also, he’s a Buckeye and he’s awesome. But you likely want stats and all that jazz, and I get that.
As a rookie in 2020, Dobbins found paydirt seven times in the eight regular season games during which he received 11 or more carries. He also added two 2PT conversions. However, once the Ravens reached the postseason, handcuffs were placed back on Dobbins, and he totaled just 19 carries in the team’s two playoff games combined. He did, however, add two more TDs.
That adds up to Dobbins producing 11 total TD on 175 touches as a rookie, scoring at a higher rate than all players not named Jalen Hurts last season (and Taysom Hill, but he doesn’t count). Sample size, regression factor, blah blah blah... I get it. The now fourth-year RB is not likely to replicate his rookie-season scoring efficiency, but evidence of elite production exists. And keep in mind: despite appearing in 15 regular season games in 2020, Dobbins scored these TD primarily as a backup!
Starts may have been ceremonial in Baltimore, but he was only credited with one, according to PFF. He played on just 46 percent of the Ravens’ offensive snaps as a rookie, suggesting a much (much) higher ceiling if he were to start something like 12, 14, even 17 games.
After missing all of 2021 due to injury, Dobbins returned in Week 3 of the 2022 season and was clearly a shell of himself. He played parts of four games before going back on the shelf, only to return again in Week 14. Seemingly healthy for the first time in nearly two years, the former Buckeye by way of Texas then went on a four-game tear of sorts. Dobbins rarely found the endzone during this month-long stretch (a single TD) but he was arguably as explosive as ever. He averaged a robust 6.9 yards per carry (go ahead, say it) in December and helped Baltimore reach the playoff without their franchise QB.
Each of Dobbins’ two healthy-ish seasons provides a different glimmer of hope that he can develop into a consistent ‘star’ for both the Ravens and fantasy football players. Another reason that I am somewhat bullish on his future fantasy potential in particular is something I hinted at or alluded to earlier...
Baltimore recently dumped Greg Roman as the team’s offensive coordinator and hired Former Georgia OC Todd Monken to take his place. Monken, a bit of a coaching nomad, has been hit-or-miss as a playcaller, so success is not guaranteed. But he likes to throw the ball, and he did wonders for the boys in Athens. More importantly, Monken acknowledges that a QB with wheels is not required by some football law to use them frequently.
So it’s possible that Jackson runs less in 2023 (and beyond) and instead hands the ball off more, while also targeting his guys out of the backfield with regularity. This would be a huge boost to Dobbins’ value.
“Hey Lamar, can you pull it down and run this time!?”
The case for targeting Dobbins early and often in fantasy drafts is not a strong one. He hasn’t been able to stay on the field, and until we see proof of concept, why should we believe that Jackson is not going to pilfer 800+ yards and 6+ TD from the Ravens’ backfield? But I am not encouraging anybody to take Dobbins in the first round. Hell, I wouldn’t touch him in round two or round three either. I would, however, start to look at JK2K in the fourth round. At that point he becomes a potential steal and/or league-winner.
Not to sound crazy or like too much of a homer, but imagine if Dobbins averages 5.3 YPC on 15 carries per game. That is a 10% drop-off from his career YPC average and right in line with how often he carried the ball last December. Those averages would give him over 1,300 rushing yards for a full season (Saquon Barkley finished fourth in 2022 with 1,312). 15 carries per game for 16 or 17 games would also put him at 240-255 carries for a full season. And since we know that Dobbins only needed 175 total touches to rack up 11 TD as a rookie, one could reasonably expect Dobbins to find the endzone 12+ times with a full workload.
Even factoring in regression. All of this would amount to a heck of a real-life and fantasy stat line, without a single pass being caught in the revamped Baltimore offense! Hose me down, because this former Buckeye is starting to look like a first-rounder.
In all likelihood, Dobbins will see his usual volume and perhaps even miss a few games. Such is life. But he will definitely be chasing a second contract, which should serve as extra motivation to ball out and be available (not that he could be blamed for a knee injury). There is obvious risk in drafting Dobbins... There is also plenty of upside. His early ADP is right around No. 50 overall (RB15-25) but I’m just not seeing it. I will be targeting him in the 35-40 range, and I would encourage others to do the same.
Continue reading...