Ohio State v. Michigan State: 2024 game preview and prediction
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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Ohio State hits the road for the first time this season, taking on Michigan State on Saturday night.
After not being challenged in their first three games of the season,
Ohio State will not only hit the road for the first time this season, the Buckeyes will also be playing their first conference game of the season on Saturday night when they take on the
Michigan State Spartans.
Ryan Day’s team opened up their season by beating Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall by a combined score of 157-20. Last time out, Ohio State got off to a slow start against Marshall, allowing the Thundering Herd to march down the field and take a 7-0 lead. The Buckeyes responded quickly with a 68-yard touchdown pass from Will Howard to Emeka Egbuka on their second offensive play of the game.
Howard would lead the offense on three more touchdown drives to open up a 28-7 lead before Marshall answered with a touchdown before half. After the break, the Buckeyes would tack on three more touchdowns to earn a 49-14 win.
Now Ohio State will try and continue their recent dominance of Michigan State, having won eight straight meetings with the Spartans. Under Ryan Day, Ohio State is 5-0 against Michigan State, averaging 569.8 yards and 45.8 points per game against the Spartans. During that span, the Buckeye defense has given up just 52 points to Michigan State.
History against Sparty
Even though Ohio State has been in control of recent meetings with the Spartans, Michigan State has been a thorn in the side of some of the best Buckeye squads. Since 1972, the Spartans have beaten top-five ranked Ohio State teams five times. Most recently. Michigan State won 17-14 in Columbus in 2015, handing the Buckeyes their first and only loss of the season.
Overall, Ohio State holds a 37-15 edge in the series, with a 19-5 record in East Lansing.
Continuing to carve up defenses
Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson followed up their performance against Western Michigan with another strong outing last week. The dynamic duo scored two rushing touchdowns each for the second straight game, marking the first time since 2014 the Buckeyes have had two players run for at least two touchdowns in consecutive games.
Against Michigan 10 years ago, Ezekiel Elliott and J.T. Barrett each found the end zone twice on the ground, followed by Elliott and Curtis Samuel scoring twice each the next week in the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin.
Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images
Judkins not only cracked 3,000 career rushing yards with his 173 yards rushing last week, his 86-yard touchdown was the third-longest in school history. Henderson is 48 yards away from also reaching 3,000 career rushing yards. When he reaches that mark he will pass Carlos Snow for 12th-most rushing yards in school history. With two more trips to the end zone, Henderson will tie Barrett and J.K. Dobbins for fifth in school history with 43 touchdowns scored.
After Jeremiah Smith received most of the attention in the first two games, Emeka Egbuka made his mark early against Marshall, taking a Will Howard screen pass 68 yards for a score. Egbuka finished with five catches for 117 yards in the victory. Now Egbuka sits three catches away from passing Santonio Holmes for 10th in school history, and is 90 yards from tying Garrett Wilson’s 2,213 receiving yards, which currently sits 11th in Ohio State history.
Smith wasn’t silent on Saturday, finishing with 70 yards and a touchdown on his three catches, including a 53-yard touchdown in the third quarter. With the score, Smith became the first known Buckeye true freshman receiver to score a touchdown in his first three games. Along with Egbuka and Smith, sophomore Carnell Tate was the third Ohio State receiver last week to record at least 60 yards, finishing with 64 yards on four catches.
Aside from throwing his first interception as a Buckeye, Will Howard had another solid performance on Saturday, missing on only four of his 20 pass attempts, throwing for 275 yards and two scores, while adding a rushing touchdown to his stat line. Through three games, Howard has nearly 800 yards passing and eight total touchdowns, completing over 75 percent of his pass attempts.
With his experience at
Kansas State, Howard won’t be flustered by the Buckeyes heading into enemy territory for the first time this season.
The defense still looks nasty
Despite allowing their first touchdown of the season, Ohio State’s defense had another strong performance against Marshall. The Buckeye defense took a drive to wake up against the Thundering Herd, as Stone Earle’s running and throwing ability had them on their heels early.
Following the 75-yard opening drive from Marshall, Ohio State gave up less than 200 yards the rest of the game. The Buckeyes have been especially stingy after halftime, allowing just 160 total yards and no points in the second half of their three games so far.
One reason Ohio State might have struggled early against Marshall is because of the absence of defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, who missed the game due to an elbow injury. Luckily the injury isn’t one that is expected to sideline Williams for an extended amount of time, and it’s likely he’ll be available to play on Saturday night. Williams is tied with J.T. Tuimoloau for the team lead with 1.5 sacks. As a whole, the defense has nine sacks and 22 tackles for loss through the first three games of the season.
Lathan Ransom continues to be a tackling machine for Ohio State, finishing with a team-high eight tackles against Marshall, while Sonny Styles recorded seven tackles, and Denzel Burke had six stops. Through three games, Ransom is the team leader in tackles, as he has been credited with 19 tackles.
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The Buckeye secondary has shown how complete they are this year, making opponents fight for every reception while tackling everything in front of them. What makes this group even scarier is Caleb Downs hasn’t yet some of those huge impact plays like were seen from him last year at Alabama.
Upcoming opponents should be fearful that the Ohio State secondary hasn’t yet hit their top speed yet, and they are still shutting down everything thrown at them in the first three games.
How season of the Spartans has gone so far
Michigan State will enter Saturday’s game angry after suffering their first loss of the season last week, falling 23-19 to Boston College in Chestnut Hill. The Spartans took a 19-16 lead with just over four minutes left in the game when Jonathan Kim hit a 27-yard field goal. Michigan State couldn’t make the lead stick, as Boston College used a 42-yard touchdown pass with 1:28 left to take the lead for good.
The setback was the first for the Spartans under Jonathan Smith, who is in his first year as head coach after spending the last six years in charge at
Oregon State. After struggling in their season-opening win over Florida Atlantic, Michigan State won their first conference game of the season, using a fourth quarter comeback to win at Maryland. Following the win over the Terrapins, the Spartans shutout Prairie View A&M 40-0 before suffering the loss to the Golden Eagles last week.
What to expect from Michigan State on offense
Not only did Jonathan Smith join Michigan State from Oregon State, also new to East Lansing are former Oregon State quarterback Aidan Chiles and tight end Jack Velling. After serving as backup quarterback last year, Chiles is now the starter for Michigan State.
Chiles can be electrifying at times, but he also has made some poor decisions in the first four games, throwing seven interceptions. Along with his throwing ability, Ohio State will have to be aware of the run threat Chiles brings to the game, already scoring three rushing touchdowns this year.
So far this season, Michigan State has utilized two running backs. Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams is a sixth-year graduate transfer from UMass and has carried the football 49 times for 271 yards, while Nate Carter has 47 carries for 27 yards. Both backs have found the end zone once through the first four games. Last week against Boston College, Lynch-Adams had 61 yards in the return to the state where he spent most of his college football career.
Early in the season, Chiles formed a connection with freshman wide receiver Nick Marsh. The duo were critical to the comeback win over Maryland, with Marsh hauling in eight passes for 194 yards and a score. Unfortunately Marsh was injured the following week against Prairie View A&M and missed the Boston College game.
With Marsh on the sidelines, last week Montorie Foster Jr. caught four passes for a team-high 87 yards. Foster enters Saturday night’s contest with a team-high 17 catches.
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As mentioned earlier, Jack Velling followed Smith from Corvallis to East Lansing. Last year Velling had a breakout season, finishing with eight touchdowns for the Beavers. While Velling hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, it is obvious Velling and Chiles have comfort in the passing game from their time together last year.
Through four games as a Spartan, Velling has caught 12 passes for 159 yards, catching half of those passes in last week’s loss.
Sparty on defense
Ohio State will need their offensive line to continue to be at the top of their game on Saturday night since Michigan State has done a great job at creating pressure so far this season. The Spartans are currently second in the FBS with 15 sacks and lead the Big Ten with 32 tackles for loss.
Leading the team in sacks are defensive end Khris Bogle and linebacker Jordan Turner, with each Spartan registering three sacks through four games. Turner has six TFLs, while Bogle sits just behind him with five TFLs. The sixth-year senior Bogle transferred to Michigan State from Florida three years ago.
Another sixth-year senior has been starting at defensive tackle for the Spartans this year. D’Quan Douse transferred into the program from
Georgia Tech during the offseason and has started all four games this season. A couple of Michigan products round out the line. Defensive tackle Alex VanSumeren from Bay City missed all of last year due to injury, while Jalen Thompson from Cass Tech occupies the other defensive end spot.
Photo by Roger Wimmer/ISI Photos/Getty Images
Leading the linebacker group for Michigan State is Cal Haladay, who has started 27 straight games and has 326 career tackles. Haladay not only has led the team in tackles three years straight, he has scored three defensive touchdowns. After four years at Wisconsin, Jordan Turner transferred into the program in January and has made an immediate impact. Expect to see Wayne Matthews III and Jordan Hall at linebacker at times during the game.
While the Michigan State secondary will be tested by Ohio State’s receivers, the Spartans have some playmakers in the defensive backfield. Against Prairie View A&M, Charles Brantley returned an interception 100 yards for a touchdown, which is not only the longest defensive play in school history, it is the 16th 100-yard play in Big Ten history. The redshirt junior has two picks on the year and four passes defensed.
Ohio native Angelo Grose has played in 44 career games, starting 38 contests. Grose not only has an interception, he has also forced a fumble this season. Nikai Martinez, Ed Woods, and Malik Spencer are the rest of the starters for Michigan State in the secondary.
Very special teams
One area where the Spartans have been exceptional this year is on special teams. Kicker Jonathan Kim has hit all eight of his field goal attempts, with his biggest kick being the game-winner with a second remaining against Maryland. Punter Ryan Eckley is averaging 50.3 yards per punt and is on the Ray Guy Award watch list.
If Michigan State wants to have any shot at upsetting the Buckeyes they’ll need both to continue kicking at a high level.
Prediction
There’s no question Smith has stabilized the program after the Mel Tucker fiasco. After winning their first three games, the Spartans did have their first hiccup against Boston College last week. Saturday’s game against Ohio State is likely going to be tough for Smith and his team to stomach since the Buckeyes are so talented, but it will likely make them even hungrier for success going forward.
Where Michigan State is going to have problems in this game is with their inconsistency. Aside from the Prairie View A&M contest, the Spartans haven’t put together a full game of good football. Michigan State struggled in the second half against Florida Atlantic, had shaky moments against Maryland, and faltered late last week. To beat Ohio State, you have to be great for 60 minutes.
The Buckeyes need at least a little resistance with games against Iowa and Oregon following this game. At least Ohio State should be pushed a little without being on upset alert. Will Howard will have no problem dealing with the crowd in East Lansing since he has been in more hostile environments during his time at Kansas State. To win, Michigan State is going to have to force Howard into making mistakes, and that likely won’t happen.
Where the Buckeyes should be able to have success is getting after Chiles and creating turnovers. Chiles already has seven interceptions this year and the Buckeyes will be hungry for turnovers after not forcing any against Marshall. If Ohio State is able to force one early it could rattle the redshirt freshman and lead to more and an easy Buckeye victory.
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 45, Michigan State 17
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Ryan Day and the Buckeyes spoke to the media yesterday ahead of their first B1G Ten matchup of the season
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