Will scUM even compete for an NC in the next decade?

[Cornerback6]

Brutus, I agree my brother.

Defense, defense, defense. I think with their All Americans departing and having given up over 30 points multiple times over the last 4 games of the season, scUM fans would see that they are due for a defensive nosedive.

 

[buckiprof]

Mile - Good rational post for a scUMmer.

Winning the Big 10 helps to be in a position for the NC game but obviously doesn't guarantee it. Luck is a player in the NC quest without a doubt. If we consider that the first game of the year is the beginning of the "playoffs" where by winning you continue to control your own destiny, then the one problem I see for scUM is what you mentioned, the early season misstep against an opponent they should beat.

The other issue that scUM has is, and again you mentioned it, defense. Having a very good to great defense keeps you in every game by default. This can then allow a team to catch some "luck" to make it to the NC game.

I do believe that within the next 10 years scUM will be challenging for the NC game. In fact, I would absolutely love to see an OSU v scUM game within the next 10 years where both teams are undefeated and every single marble that exists is riding on The Game.

 

[TheMile]

I could see them losing 4-5 games

Of course we could. According to the numbers I gave before, we've got ~33% chance of losing exactly 4 games. MSU is always dangerous here in Lansing, OSU is always dangerous anywhere, and with Iowa's ascendance, next season could go either way.

Their fans are banking on this years recruits to come in and do damage...thats unrealistic. A team is lucky to have 2-4 freshmen that see significant time let alone start.

Where do you get this stuff? This is absolutely not true. Mesko is going to start, but he's a punter, so he doesn't really count. OSU's favorite player, the towering, 7' giant Brandon Harrison probably has the best chance of starting on non-special teams, but only as a nickelback.

It appears that Grady will play, but with Hart and Martin it doesn't really matter either way. Slocum might see some time, since he's already 331 pounds, but that's very unsure, and not necessary at all.

The only place we're banking on a true freshman is punter. Whoopee.

 

[TheMile]

In fact, I would absolutely love to see an OSU v scUM game within the next 10 years where both teams are undefeated and every single marble that exists is riding on The Game.

Amen to that. I cheer for OSU in bowl games, with some reluctance (especially 2002 ), but I'll be rooting hard for you guys against Texas.

You do not have a NC defense...period. People can argue until they are blue in the face but IMO defense wins championships it did in 2002.

Sheesh, if you aren't going to defend tripe like "Their fans are banking on this years recruits to come in and do damage", why post it?

 

[MightbeaBuck]

If I do this: will you guys not ding me?

So that is what it looks like from the wrong side of the keyboard. Probably sounds like that from the wrong side of the field too .

I would say that within the next decade we'll play a scUM team ranked in the top 5.

If you mean a Meatchicken team ranked at the time we play them, it'll be within the next four to five years (possibly, but doubtful, even next year.) And within the decade it may be as many as three or four times.

But if you mean a final ranking in the top five, I agree. We may play a couple of scUM teams ranked in top 5 in next decade.

 

[TheMile]

The threads i'm refering to are on GBW they are the depth chart thread and the NC thread.

I see. We suck because we have idiot fans who overrate the incoming recruiting class because they paid $100/year to learn about it. Gotcha.

What do idiot fans have to do with the topic, "Will scUM even compete for an NC in the next decade", anyway?

Until Michigan gets alot better at defense they will not win NC.

Did you not read my original post? I acknowledge our defense sucked! Listen, Utah had the 39th ranked defense last year, lower than U of M, and they only didn't play Auburn in the Orange Bowl because of a horrible Oklahoma St. chokejob and a dropped easy pass by a Cal player. Any good team has a chance of winning a MNC with luck. That's why we love college football.

You ignore my posts and randomly post negative things about Michigan, rational or not. Shouldn't you be over at BN or GBW?

 

[Bestbuck36]

Shouldn't you be over at BN or GBW?

OUCH!:box:

Can't we all just get along? :tongue2:

 

[souL]

Yes. Yes they will. They get the talent. It won't stop going to UM. One year, they'll get a favorable schedule and when it comes time for The Game, they'll be undefeated. Undefeated with one game left to go for a NC birth? Ya... that's competing. Not to mention, if we see some kind of change that allows for more than 2 teams to get a crack at the NC in the next 10 years, I'd say without question they'll be in the hunt.

Stupid, stupid question. Would you say the same about us if we lose 2 games next year? Because it's nearly the same scenario. Is it too much to ask to think before you post?

 

[BuckeyeBill]

I Love Carr (like scUM loved Coop)

Some are down on Carr, but no where close to a majority are. Herrmann is an entirely different story. We all want him gone.

That's funny because during the Cooper era, we really made Hermann look like a master of defense. I guess times have changed.

There is no question that Fichigan will always have a top 10 team, yet they always manage to choke along the way. As someone pointed out, they're alot like Coop. That last split NC was a gift, a gift because they are a media favorite. Carr's abilities seem to be recruiting and whining to the ref's, because that's all I ever see him do. With their incredible talent, they will always challenge for an NC birth, but under Carr, no way. Some coaches can get to the big game, other coaches will win the big game. Between JT and LLLC, I'll take JT.

 

[CleveBucks]

um's secondary is going to be weak this year. They replace Jackson (who was overrated but still solid) with someone like Morgan Trent? Grant Mason? Darnell Hood? Who else do they even have? I'm sorry, but McCoy is decent at best, and the other starter will be worse. And they've struck out on every top corner prospect they've recruited the past few years.

Then you get to the safeties. Mundy still looks out of position more often than not. Good athlete but he doesnt have the instincts to play safety. Who else? Willis Barringer? Brandon Engelmon? Jamar Adams? Again, nobody above average.

Scary to say, but next year's D may be worse than the 04 laugher.

 

[OilerBuck]

For what it's worth, TheMile is one of the more objective posters you will find anywhere (tOSU fan or otherwise). Many of you are letting your hatred for "that team" get in the way of judgement. I don't mind seeing a few guys piling on a flamer or scUM homer...but theMile has been quite classy in his time here and so I choose to argue for him even though I am a Buckeye fan and scUM hater.

First, remember that TSUN is a football powerhouse and has been the picture of consistency in the top 25 even while Nebraska, Florida, Florida State, Miami, USC, Alabama, Penn State and even our Buckeyes have had some rebuilding years.

Second, as Ohio State fans we know that you can NEVER count a team out of the national championship picture. when we went 14-0 we were actually a handful of plays away from having four or five losses! Many of you will say that scUM doesn't have the personality of a team that wins the close games like we do under Tressel...but prior to 2002, did we? With limited scholarships, more evenly spread talent and parity, ANY team with enough talent to be in the top 20-15 is a couple plays away from an undefeted season and a chance to play in the national championship.

You all point to TSUN's defense as being incapable of going to the national championship because of losses in the secondary, inability to stop a mobile QB, etc. I seem to remember our defense in 2003 picking up where the one in 2002 left off after losing Doss, Nickey, Wilhelm, Grant & Peterson. Not only that, but usually a whole offseason of film study and training players will correct a few of their most glaring weaknesses. This will open up new holes that other teams will have to find and exploit, but don't expect Meatchicken to give up anymore Troy Smith or Vince Young type performances next year unless they are exploited somewhere else first.

Don't get me wrong...I LOVE tOSU and HATE scUM with everything in me...but to say that they choke doesn't tell the whole story, because they do have an undefeted season under Carr. In my calculations, that equals the number of DI-A undefeted seasons Tressel has. They may lose games that they aren't supposed to...but everyone except the national champion pretty much loses some they shouldn't. Using that theory prior to the season last year, we should have been undefeted going into the scUM game. Does that suddenly make Tressel a choker?

Again, I don't want to sound like a MeatChicken apologist...but for all the people that get so angry about other teams homers...we all wear scarlet colored glasses as well (myself included). It's amazing how quick two successful consecutive years will cause everyone to forget some of our former woes. We were one year away, we couldn't have expected to win starting a true freshman runningback or a average QB. We hadn't proven that we could consistently win the last two games of the season, we weren't beating teams big enough, we got "lucky". How many of you were raving about the lack of respect other teams "homers" were giving us, but yet we are so quick to dismiss any other teams chances to pull the same magical run?

TheMile wasn't suggesting that M*ch*gan is a favorite for the NC game next year, he was just standing by his assertion that scUM has as good a chance as ANYONE to win in the next decade...it's not like they are freakin' Prarie View A&M.

Excuse me while I go puke my guts out and wash off after all that.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Which trend? The trend of winning the Big 10 the last two years? The trend of our offense wildly overachieving with a true freshman backfield? The trend where we make a BCS bowl 3 out of the 7 years it's been around? How about 1997, and our #4 finish in 2003?

Uh, we were #4 in 2003...you were #6/#7. Since Carr took the reigns in 1995, you've finished ranked in the top 5 exactly one time, with a split national title...we've been ranked in the top 5 four times with a consensus national title. As for wildly achieving with a true freshman in the backfield, we went 14-0 and won the national title with a true freshman in the backfield in 2002, so we're not impressed. You may have made three BCS bowls, but you lost two of them (we also made three BCS bowls, winning all three). But, getting to trends, tell me this isn't a trend: Three or four losses in 10 of the last 12 seasons, including 8 of 10 under Carr. Here's your season records since 1993:

1993: 8-4
1994: 8-4
1995: 9-4
1996: 8-4
1997: 12-0
1998: 10-3
1999: 10-2
2000: 9-3
2001: 8-4
2002: 10-3
2003: 10-3
2004: 9-3

Look's like the definition of a trend to me...

 

[OilerBuck]

Easy wins (~100%): Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Indiana

Probable wins (~75%): Notre Dame, @Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State

Toss ups (~50%): @Iowa, Ohio State

Our chances of going undefeated are therefore ~8%, meaning we'd make it to the MNC game about 1 out of 10 times. Sounds about right to me, as we'll have a good but not superb team next year.

I would like to modify your stats a little...

No team is a 100% win...Northern Illinois, Eastern Mich. and Indiana at home should all be about 95%.

At Northwestern and At Wisconsin will never be gimmes (See tOSU losses last year) even though Wisky will be depleted. I'd say each of those games are 80% wins

I agree with the probables and tOSU being about 50/50 at scUM. I'd say with Iowa's streak at Kinnick and with the talent they are returning, they will be favored. I'm going to go 40% there.

With these numbers, it takes the undefeted regular season down to about a 3.5% chance. Not terrible chances, considering.

 

[jwinslow]

Comparison of scUM vs. tOSU

<table border="0" width="500"><tbody><tr><td>1993</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">8-4</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">10-1</td></tr><tr><td>1994</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">8-4</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">9-4</td></tr><tr><td>1995</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">9-4</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">11-2</td></tr><tr><td>1996</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">8-4</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">11-1</td></tr><tr><td>1997

</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">12-0</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">10-3</td></tr><tr><td>1998</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">10-3</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">11-1</td></tr><tr><td>1999</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">10-2</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">6-6</td></tr><tr><td>2000</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">9-3</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">8-4</td></tr><tr><td>2001</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">8-4</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">7-5</td></tr><tr><td>2002</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">10-3</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">14-0</td></tr><tr><td>2003</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">10-3</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">11-2</td></tr><tr><td>2004</td><td bgcolor="#ffffcc">9-3</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">8-4</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr><td>Average</td><td>9.25 wins </td><td>9.66 wins </td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>3.08 losses </td><td>2.75 wins </td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[WoodyWorshiper]

I, for one, hope to hell that they are in contention for a NC NEXT year.

Just once in my life I would love to see scUM ranked #1 and us ranked #2 heading into "THE GAME" and the game being AT scUM.

Just how sweet would it be to go into the Shit-House and knock off their #1 ranked sorry asses. That would be downright magical.