Will scUM even compete for an NC in the next decade?

[smithlabs]

Do you think there will be a real playoff in the next 10 years? I kind of doubt it but a playoff would help scUM and OSU in the same way.

1) Southern and PAC-10 Schools might have to travel North (East) to play a cold weather game
2) Schools from a strong conference will be used to playing tough games week after week.
3) Two loss teams could still win a NC. (the BCS Superbowl last year would have been Pittsburg vs Phili, 2 loss NE wouldn't of even played)

If the Gods of football smite the BCS, OSU and scUM will both improved chances of a NC.

Smithlabs

 

[bullsfan75]

The Mile - You talk about Carr retiring soon. Are any names being floated for his replacement? Do you expect another UM assistant to be promoted, a la Moeller and Carr, or do you expect them to hire an outsider?

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Do you think there will be a real playoff in the next 10 years? I kind of doubt it but a playoff would help scUM and OSU in the same way.

I think that within 10 years there will be some form of playoff. I think the BCS dies completely within the next 8-10 years, if not sooner.

 

[jwinslow]

I doubt there have been too many times in the past where the little guys were such legitimate contenders for NC's. Boise St, Louisville, Fresno St, Utah, while I don't have as much respect for them deserve at least some consideration for teh NC if they are able to beat a decent amount of good teams and go undefeated. That creates a huge problem if there are at least 2 (or 3 like this year) undefeated BCS conference teams (note that does not refer to the Big Least, which will not be in the BCS much longer). The AP poll did not pull out of the BCS for nothing.

 

[TheMile]

Uh, we were #4 in 2003...you were #6/#7.

I know; I should've qualified that. Since the topic of the thread is will Michigan compete for a MNC, #4 was our ranking going into the bowls, which is the most pertinent number to the topic.

Since Carr took the reigns in 1995, you've finished ranked in the top 5 exactly one time, with a split national title...we've been ranked in the top 5 four times with a consensus national title. As for wildly achieving with a true freshman in the backfield, we went 14-0 and won the national title with a true freshman in the backfield in 2002, so we're not impressed.

The topic of this thread is not Ohio State; it's Michigan. I agree, OSU has done better over the last decade than Michigan has. Where have I intimated anything different? OSU's relative success has nothing to do with Michigan being a top program or not.

You may have made three BCS bowls, but you lost two of them (we also made three BCS bowls, winning all three).

We also played 2 very good teams in those losses. I'm not ashamed that we lost to Texas and (especially) USC. If you figure that a team has a 50% chance of winning a BCS game, you finish 1-2 37.5% of the time. In that light, it's not a very surprising outcome.

But, getting to trends, tell me this isn't a trend: Three or four losses in 10 of the last 12 seasons, including 8 of 10 under Carr.

Correct, but the quote nonetheless misses the point that we've been good enough, with luck, to play for the national championship. I brought up 2003 because, with about 3-4 weeks to go in the season, we had a decent chance of making it. If you don't believe me, I can dig up BCS stats to collaborate this, but I'm at work at the moment and really oughtn't.

I would like to modify your stats a little...

No team is a 100% win...Northern Illinois, Eastern Mich. and Indiana at home should all be about 95%.

At Northwestern and At Wisconsin will never be gimmes (See tOSU losses last year) even though Wisky will be depleted. I'd say each of those games are 80% wins

I agree, other than Northwestern. They'll be way down (even for recent NW), so I'd put the percent higher, say, 90%. I only did it that way to simplify things for myself.

I agree with the probables and tOSU being about 50/50 at scUM. I'd say with Iowa's streak at Kinnick and with the talent they are returning, they will be favored. I'm going to go 40% there.

With these numbers, it takes the undefeted regular season down to about a 3.5% chance. Not terrible chances, considering.

You're definitely right about Iowa. My natural homerism wants me to say 55%-60% against OSU because the home team dominates the series so, but we can agree to disagree there.

While I'm at it, I'm going to put Notre Dame at 80%, cause we're at home and will be wanting revenge.

That puts my refined undefeated percentage at 4.8%. Since defeated teams frequently make MNC games, Michigan therefore makes it there about 1/15 of the time.

The Mile - You talk about Carr retiring soon. Are any names being floated for his replacement? Do you expect another UM assistant to be promoted, a la Moeller and Carr, or do you expect them to hire an outsider?

Les Miles had been the frontrunner in my mind, but it's really up in the air now that he's at LSU. Most fans' nightmare situation is Herrmann taking the job, since he and Carr are so close. Most fans' dream situation is if we replaced Herrmann now with a big time defensive coordinator from elsewhere who'd likely take the job from Carr.

In my opinion, the most likely way things shake out is that Malone gets promoted to head coach due to his success with the offense and Loeffler takes his place as OC. Still, it's really up in the air at the moment.

 

[jwinslow]

I'd like to give major props to The Mile for being a great outsider on this site. TheMile isnt just sucking up either, he's asserting his opinions, with facts, but doing so understanding that he's speaking to a very anti-UM crowd. BP is great for so many reasons, and one of them is that there are others like methomps, wstripes, EngineerHorn, etc that are able to handle themselves with class despite not being buckeye fans. Most of us here at BP won't hate a poster just because he's a scUM fan (at least won't contine to do so ). It is coming on this board with emotional & argumentative homer posts that will get you lots of flak or worse.

 

[unionfutura]

One thing I have learned from my lifetime of enjoying

college football, is that one team's weakness for a season does not translate as a continuing problem. Hell I remember when Michigan couldn't score a point to save their lives, but year they figured it out and now are a very good offensive team.

OSU truth be told had one of the most vanilla offenses in college football, from 03 to most of 04, remember the turds at ESPN telling the world that our best offensive option was Mike Nugent? A team like Michigan will focus all their attention this offseason on what hurt them and I guarantee that as a group the defense will be better. They have the talent and the cupboard certainly isn't empty. I felt OSU could always put their offensive game together when they found a scheme that worked for them. I put Michigan in that same category.

 

[bullsfan75]

In my opinion, the most likely way things shake out is that Malone gets promoted to head coach due to his success with the offense and Loeffler takes his place as OC.

I think that would be unfortunate. The tradition of hiring the "next in line" at UM seems to have made the program rather stagnant in terms of offensive philosophy. They made a very bold step in hiring Bo in the 60s, but since then the focus seems to be more on consistency than innovation.

An aside: I really appreciate your posts, Mile. You approach your team's chances with reason and logic. You represent your team very well.

 

[Holy Buckeye!]

I believe ScUM will be a pretender not a contender till Lloyd goes. So lets all hope JT's b*tch sticks around for awhile and keeps doing just well enough to keep his job, similar to Coop. Oh Mile thanks for not being a stereotypical pompous ass like the majority of your fans.


HB

 

[daddyphatsacs]

To make a statement like the one mentioned in the title of this thread is a little far fetched. So much can change over 5-10 years, hell look at how much has changed at OSU over 5 years. We went from losing nearly every Michigan and Bowl game to losing only 1 of each over the last 4 years.

Michigan has a solid program, and will always be around the top of the Big Ten. You can try to back up your argument with reasoning (ie. past defensive stats, and records), but in all honesty you cannot predict what the future holds.

I'm assuming that they will challenge for a title at some point in the next 10 years, that is until we beat them at the end of the season........

That being said........Fuck Michigan.

 

[MightbeaBuck]

...you've finished ranked in the top 5 exactly one time, with a split national title...

The reason Meatchicken only got half the loaf is because the Cornholer's half came as a gift from:

(A.) Doctor Tom's fellow coaches, as a retirement gift. and

(B.) To insure Nebraska got the coaches half of the poll, Osborne voted himself number one. Now that in itself isn't a bad thing, hell, I'd do the same thing myself (who wouldn't?) Most of us would then have voted the "other" undefeated school as number two....But he didn't even vote scUM in the top five! therefore Meatchicken came up short on points.

If these two things hadn't happened, I believe scUM would have had the concensus MNC.

Most of the time I root against the scUM, but who wants to have a losing team as the arch-rival, or in this case, the Arch-Rival? I guess the only time I even half way root for them is in Bowl Games....

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

The reason Meatchicken only got half the loaf is because the Cornholer's half came as a gift from:

(A.) Doctor Tom's fellow coaches, as a retirement gift. and

(B.) To insure Nebraska got the coaches half of the poll, Osborne voted himself number one...But he didn't even vote scUM in the top five! therefore Meatchicken came up short on points.

(A.) You're shittin' me, right? Nebraska outscored their opponents 47-16 (+31 points) and destroyed Tennessee (which coincidentally won the national title the following year) 42-17 in the Orange Bowl, while Michigan only outscored their opponents 27-9 (+18 points) and squeaked by Washington State 21-16 in the Rose Bowl.

(B.) Do you have the coach-by-coach breakdown of who voted how? Did Nebraska only win the title by the amount of points of the difference between Nebraska and Michigan on Osborne's ballot? I highly, highly doubt it.

If anyone got robbed of the consensus national title, it was Nebraska.

 

[tibor75]

The reason Meatchicken only got half the loaf is because the Cornholer's half came as a gift from:

(A.) Doctor Tom's fellow coaches, as a retirement gift. and

(B.) To insure Nebraska got the coaches half of the poll, Osborne voted himself number one. Now that in itself isn't a bad thing, hell, I'd do the same thing myself (who wouldn't?) Most of us would then have voted the "other" undefeated school as number two....But he didn't even vote scUM in the top five! therefore Meatchicken came up short on points.

If these two things hadn't happened, I believe scUM would have had the concensus MNC.

Most of the time I root against the scUM, but who wants to have a losing team as the arch-rival, or in this case, the Arch-Rival? I guess the only time I even half way root for them is in Bowl Games....

Nobody knows who screwed scUM. That piece of shit Ivan Maisel in a column tried to imply that it was Cooper who intentionally voted scUM lower to spite them. Coop denied it and of course Miasel didn't have any proof but that didn't stop the piece of human filth from printing his column.

 

[TheMile]

um's secondary is going to be weak this year. They replace Jackson (who was overrated but still solid) with someone like Morgan Trent? Grant Mason? Darnell Hood? Who else do they even have? I'm sorry, but McCoy is decent at best, and the other starter will be worse. And they've struck out on every top corner prospect they've recruited the past few years.

You forgot our best corner, Leon Hall, who started over Curry most of last year. Hall also returned a punt for a touchdown while Breaston was injured. Other than that, your analysis was quite good. It looks pretty bleak back there. :(

I think that would be unfortunate. The tradition of hiring the "next in line" at UM seems to have made the program rather stagnant in terms of offensive philosophy. They made a very bold step in hiring Bo in the 60s, but since then the focus seems to be more on consistency than innovation.

Like I said, Michigan fans would love a new big time defensive coordinator to eventually replace Carr. You'd think we might be able to lure one in with the carrot being the eventual head coaching job.

Of course, Michigan could do a lot worse than Malone, too. He's breathed life into our offense. Sucks that our defense had to collapse at the same time.

You're shittin' me, right? Nebraska outscored their opponents 47-16 (+31 points) and destroyed Tennessee (which coincidentally won the national title the following year) 42-17 in the Orange Bowl, while Michigan only outscored their opponents 27-9 (+18 points) and squeaked by Washington State 21-16 in the Rose Bowl.

Michigan and Nebraska had two common opponents in 1997, too. Michigan beat Colorado 27-3 and Baylor 38-3. Nebraska beat Colorado 27-24 and Baylor 49-21. Michigan's margin of victory in those games was 59 points and Nebraska's 31.

Look, we could go back and forth all day with statistics. I don't know which team was truly better. Thank god the BCS helps fix that until we get a playoff.

If anyone got robbed of the consensus national title, it was Nebraska.

If there were coaches that dishonestly voted Nebraska #1 and Michigan #5, and that effected the vote results, then Michigan was robbed. If not, then no one got robbed.

Nobody knows who screwed scUM.

I'd say most Michigan fans think it was Fulmer, in retaliation for Woodson beating Manning out for the Heisman. Here's an (admittedly crappy) link from SI:

Carr, obviously, would take exception, and even more so with Fulmer apparently dropping Michigan in his final coaches' poll of the 1997 season.

Source

 

[MightbeaBuck]

"You're shittin' me, right?" No, I take my football seriously! Listen up -
"Nebraska outscored their....the Rose Bowl." Yeah, the Cornholers should have. Their opponents had a combined winning percentage of only 47%. Yippee! Take out Kansas State's three D-2 wins, and things look worse. More than half of Nebraska's opponents had losing records. They did play two teams that had their schedules padded with the extra conference playoff game, something Meatchicken didn't have on their schedule (And something I hope the Big 10 never stoops to.)

The best way to compare the two schools is through mutual opponents: Baylor and Colorado. Compare the scores, and compare the final game stats. pathetic.

Not as good but more interesting: Compare the number of number one ranked teams that each beat: Meatchicken = one (Penn St.), Nebraska = zero.

Newspaper quote: Preseason favorite Penn St. fell out of the running on Nov. 8, 1997 after a horrible 34-8 loss to Michigan at home that wasn't even that close.

My favorite word in that line was always "horrible"

1997 Final Polls:
Cornholers: one (ESPiN)
scUM: three (Associated Press, Football Writers Association of American, and National Football Foundation)
Personally, I don't trust ESPiN, and I know a lot of Buckeye fans with the same opinion.

1997 AP Final Sportswriters Poll (as of 01/02/98)
The top 25 teams in The Associated Press college football poll, with first-place votes in parentheses, records through Jan. 2, total points based on 25 points for a first place vote through one point for a 25th place vote and previous ranking:
1. Michigan (51 1/2) 12-0 1,731 1/2 1 (69)
2. Nebraska (18 1/2) 13-0 1,698 1/2 2 (1)
3. Florida St. 11-1 1,599 4
4. Florida 10-2 1,455 6


1997 Final Coaches Poll (as of 01/02/98)
The USA Today/ESPN Coaches Top 25 college footballpoll, with number of first-place votes in parenthesis, record, total points, and last week's record and ranking:
Rank Team Record Last Week
1. Nebraska (32) 13-0 2 (8.5)
2. Michigan (30) 12-0 1 (53.5)
3. Florida State 11-1 4
4. North Carolina 11-1 5

Could somebody tell / teach me how to keep the columns in the cut & pastes?