Will scUM even compete for an NC in the next decade?

[MililaniBuckeye]

...Michigan has never been particularly good at recruiting from Florida or California. We get about one recruit from Cal a year, and maybe one from Florida. OSU is much better than us at recruiting in Cal.

U of M's best state outside of Michigan is Pennsylvania, and we get most of the rest of our recruits evenly spread about the Midwest...

Michigan has done much better in California than us, while we've done much better in Florida than Michigan. As for your best state outside of Michigan, I'd say Ohio has been just as good to you as has Pennsylvania, if not not moreso.

 

[TheMile]

Tressel controls Ohio about as much as is possible to, and much better than the other in-state schools in the recruiting goldmines.

That's a good point, and one I tend to agree with, especially without a worthy instate rival.

I mostly meant to counter Yertle's statement that seemed to be implying that Michigan wouldn't be seeing any further success in Ohio. It seems like we tend to just steal one blue chipper, like Mario Manningham and Prescott Burgess. We'll continue to do so if for no other reason than the teams need different positions at different times.

This year, Michigan is ahead of OSU on Antonio Reed (but behind UVA) and Cobrani Mixon. Also, and maybe I'm off base, but if we didn't have a wealth of riches at RB, I expect the recruiting of Chris Wells would've gone on longer than it did.

BTW....you are WAY better recruiting California then us.

Well, I'm too new at following recruiting to argue the point in any detail. I'll just say that neither Brady (Henson was the expected starter) nor Forcier (he has to deal with Henne the next three years) were considered truly big time recruits at the time.

Michigan has done much better in California than us, while we've done much better in Florida than Michigan. As for your best state outside of Michigan, I'd say Ohio has been just as good to you as has Pennsylvania, if not not moreso.

OK, time to stop trying to use my shoddy memory and get the facts to get to the bottom of this. Here's the last 4 years worth of recruits from the states under discussion:

<TABLE BORDER=1><TR><TD>State</TD><TD>5 star</TD><TD>4 star</TD><TD>3 star</TD><TD>Blue chip recruits</TD><TR><TD>Ohio</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>Burgess, Crable, Massey, Harrison, Manningham</TD></TD></TR><TR><TD>Pennsylvania</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>Breaston, Henne, Mundy, Slocum, Rogers (who transfered to PSU recently)</TR><TR><TD>California</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Guiterrez, Hall, Germany, Forcier</TD></TR></TABLE>

It looks like the recruits' respective impacts so far stilted my view. You're correct, MB.

 

[jwinslow]

There's a difference between truly stealing a recruit and landing pro-UM guys like MM and probably Reed. Rumor has it that Burgess would have been a buckeye had JT been there, and also he did NOT want to be on the same team as MoC. So he wasn't that much of a theft either.

The point is that recently we have locked up almost all Ohio recruits we have wanted taht had any interest in UM. We did not want harrison, just to establish that for this discussion.

Also regardless of how often Tressel beats UM in head to head recruiting from Ohio, the difference is night and day from the Cooper era. John Cooper was a great recruiter but constantly surrendered top talent to you guys (ie Woodson, right?). That is the biggest difference that causes us to believe JT has Ohio locked up.

 

[TheMile]

There's a difference between truly stealing a recruit and landing pro-UM guys like MM and probably Reed.
..
John Cooper was a great recruiter but constantly surrendered top talent to you guys (ie Woodson, right?). That is the biggest difference that causes us to believe JT has Ohio locked up.

I see what you mean; I guess the "lock-up" of Ohio is a semantic argument when you consider our differing perspectives. I care about how many recruits we get from Ohio; you guys care about how many recruits from Ohio you want that you lose to us. In that light, I can understand why you used the phrase "locked up," and I'm certainly not going to dispute the improvement Tressel has brought. I'm just expecting that we'll continue to get a few good recruits each year from Ohio, whether OSU wants them or not.

And for the record, I know OSU didn't pursue him, but "good recruits" still includes Brandon Harrison in my book, who was a four-star despite is his size.

 

[Yertle]

you guys care about how many recruits from Ohio you want that you lose to us.

That's exactly what I meant by lockdown Ohio. Coop did a terrible job (well, at least a below expectations job) of getting the blue chippers in Ohio. JT seems to be doing a much better job. Latest example....Beanie Wells?

The point of Florida being more of a Buckeye recruiting state and California being more Michigan is a good one. I have a feeling that Meyer will be a big hit in the Florida High Schools. With Miami also pulling in loads of talent, that might hurt us more than Michigan. However, it seems like it has been tougher getting kids out here from the West Coast, and I imagine Michigan will be hurt by this.

The result is my relatively uneducated oppinion is Michigan's recruiting classes will slowly decline. However, if you read my original post, I admitted that they'll continue to get some big time players, just not to the level they did in the past. Again, this is just this Dr. Seuss character's oppinion. I haven't asked the Lorax, Grinch, Cat in the Hat, or Sam I Am yet.

 

[Zurp]

If we assume Michigan's chances remain constant the next ten years (which I think is conservative), Michigan's chances of playing for at least one MNC are almost exactly 50%: 1-(1-1/15)^10~=0.5

I've got a question about this. I'm not great with statistical calculations and such, but doesn't your calculations assume a 1/15 chance of going undefeated? And you say that you're predicting conservatively that that's a constant chance for Michigan. If that's the case, I'm led to believe that you have a basis for your 1/15 prediction. Has Michigan been undefeated an average of once every fifteen years?

Here's my list of Michigan undefeated seasons in last 50 years:
1997 (12-0)
1992 (9-0-3)
1973 (10-0-1)

First question: Am I correct to guess that your equation is basing the chances of Michigan being undefeated EACH of the next 10 years on 1/15?

Next: If so, where'd you come up with 1/15? I think those chances seem too optimistic on your part.

 

[NOTREDAMECHIEF]

The Mile, Do you support Mich OR MSU?

 

[jwinslow]

First question: Am I correct to guess that your equation is basing the chances of Michigan being undefeated EACH of the next 10 years on 1/15?

Next: If so, where'd you come up with 1/15? I think those chances seem too optimistic on your part.

1. The equation means that there is a 50% chance that they will go undefeated once in the next 10 years.

2. Well lets use your numbers. In the last 50 years they've been undefeated 3 times, which is a 1/16.666 chance (that's pretty darn close to 15, and 15 makes for easier arithmetic).

I think 1/15 is a little optimistic too, but your numbers support his stat.

Keep in mind for the sake of this argument that there's no way Hermann lasts more than a year, and Carr won't last more than 5 (due to retirement).So a new coach with that level of talent has a shot at at title.

 

[TheMile]

I've got a question about this. I'm not great with statistical calculations and such, but doesn't your calculations assume a 1/15 chance of going undefeated?

No, it's a 1/15 chance of playing in the title game. See this post and this post for where that number came from. Basically, I figured we have ~1/20 chance of going undefeated next year and I threw in some sluff since one loss teams frequently make it to the BCS title game, too.

I called it conservative, because, well, I've got homer tendacies. So what. Actually, the word stems from my expectation that the Henne/Hart era will peak in 2006, so we'll have a higher chance that year. Who knows about the future beyond that.

The Mile, Do you support Mich OR MSU?

I'm from the Lansing area, got my undergrad at Michigan, and just recently was admitted to the graduate program at MSU, so I figure it's time to start rooting for State, too. When they play each other, though, I'll always be a Wolverine at heart.

 

[NOTREDAMECHIEF]

OOHH I can see that! Now you will rooting agaisnt ND twice huh! LOL!

 

[Zurp]

No, it's a 1/15 chance of playing in the title game. See this post and this post for where that number came from. Basically, I figured we have ~1/20 chance of going undefeated next year and I threw in some sluff since one loss teams frequently make it to the BCS title game, too.

Alright - you got me on that one.

I was checking out some of your posts, and saw that you give chance of beating Wisconsin at 100%. I know you did this to make calculations easier, and I'm not questioning that. What I'm questioning is Wisconsin. Are they supposed to be bad?

 

[TheMile]

I was checking out some of your posts, and saw that you give chance of beating Wisconsin at 100%. I know you did this to make calculations easier, and I'm not questioning that. What I'm questioning is Wisconsin. Are they supposed to be bad?

They're expected to be way down, and they weren't all that great last year. Though, I certainly don't think we've a 100% chance of beating them. I probably should've put them in the 75% bracket at the time. I think the odds are somewhere in between.

OOHH I can see that! Now you will rooting agaisnt ND twice huh! LOL!

Well, that is the one thing MSU and U of M fans always agree on.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

...In the last 50 years they've been undefeated 3 times, which is a 1/16.666 chance (that's pretty darn close to 15, and 15 makes for easier arithmetic)...

Actually, they've been undefeated three times in the last 31 seasons (since 1973), so that's once in just over every ten 10 years. I had posted earlier in this thread that they have a good chance at contending for the national title at least once in the next 10 years...not necessarily playing in the national title game, but being a contender at/near season's end.

 

[osugrad21]

OOHH I can see that! Now you will rooting agaisnt ND twice huh! LOL!

That's nothing...I root against them 11-12 times per season

 

[BB73]

That's nothing...I root against them 11-12 times per season

So in 2002 and 2003, when they played 13 games each year, did you actually root for them in 1 game each year?