Will JT Win Another NC at tOSU?

[BUCKYLE]

I'm still deciding between options two and three, as I think that both are more or less equally applicable. If I knew that there was a clearly better coach out there, I might give option four some serious consideration, but none of the big name guys (Stoops, Meyer, Pelini, Saban, etc.) have anything over Tressel, and with anybody else, you're getting an unknown commodity - maybe you get the next Tressel or Meyer, maybe you get the next Charlie Weis....

I really don't think that JT will win another NC for many reasons - his age, his coaching style, the academic/character restrictions in place at Ohio State (largely implemented by JT himself), and the luck factor involved. Look back at 2002 for a minute. We all remember Holy Buckeye and the PI call, but there were at least ten, perhaps as many as fifteen, game-changing plays that year.

01. Cincinnati - dropped pass in endzone with :48 left in game (UC down by 4)
02. Cincinnati - second dropped pass in endzone with :37 left in game (UC down by 4)
03. Cincinnati - interception in endzone with :32 left in game (UC down by 4)
04. Wisconsin - interception in endzone with 7:09 left in game (UW down by 5)
05. Penn State - Gamble pick six (only TD; game-winning score)
06. Purdue - Holy Buckeye (only TD; game-winning score)
07. Purdue - interception at Ohio State 11-yard line with :51 left in game (Purdue down by 4)
08. Illinois - dropped pass in endzone in OT (Illinois down by 7)
09. Michigan - sack and strip with 2:02 left in game (UM down by 5)
10. Michigan - interception at goal line as time expired (UM down by 5)
11. Miami - 4th-and-14 (kept drive alive in first OT)
12. Miami - the PI call (kept drive alive in first OT)
13. Miami - Krenzel's TD in first OT (tied game)
14. Miami - Clarett's TD (game-winning score)
15. Miami - goal line stand in second OT (Miami down by 7)

Ohio State rolled "seven" on each of those fifteen plays; what are the odds of that happening? If the Buckeyes fail to make even one of those fifteen plays, then they very likely would not have won the NC in 2002; if they go 60-40 on those plays, then they probably lose three or four games. Even a great team needs a little bit of luck, but the Buckeyes had an inordinate amount in 2002. I doubt that we'll ever see a charmed team like that again.

Given that JT will not get another incredible string of luck, I just don't see him being able to win another NC with his coaching style. He doesn't have a cohesive offensive vision, he doesn't use his offense to attack the opposing defenses, and he has struggled to develop a ball-control passing attack. Also, for whatever reason, the line play on both sides of the ball has been suspect from 2004 to the present - maybe that has something to do with passivity as well.

None of those were "luck". Defense doing it's job, whether in the first Q or fourth, isn't luck. It's proper execution. A ref making the obvious call is only luck if it's in the SEC. Mo C scoring, on anyfuckingbody that year sure as shit wasn't luck. It's not like he tripped and stumbled into the endzone. Luck would be if Krenzel fumbled and the ball bounced into Hartsocks hands and he just happened to be in the endzone.

 

[kn1f3party]

Voted no, but great ambassador.

I guess it comes down to what you want out of your head coach. I could rattle off paragraphs about how JT emphasizes passion, tradition, family, etc. but I won't. Quite simply, he gets what being the head coach of Ohio State is all about. We love him for that. You're from Michigan if you think he should be fired.

Will he win another NC? Doubtful. A lot of people identified some of the reasons. Player development stands out to me. Another one that is really poignant in my mind is how this coaching staff handles a deficit. We had no shot at getting back in the game against Wisconsin. We all knew it with how it started. The same thing happened at Purdue last year. When we are under duress and down it seems like we are climbing an impossible hill. We never get momentum back. Even Saturday night, in the third quarter, it felt like we were just getting by. It took us eons to get the ball down the field. And being clutch used to just be part of our nature, early on in his tenure we would hit the last second field goals, make the last second interception, come up with a big stop. We just don't see it as often anymore. Our lack of depth on defense is alarming this season.

I'm trying not to be a negative Nancy, but when you find so many reasons why you don't think this will be the year it becomes easy to see how not all of those will be fixed going in to next season, or the season after that, or the season after that.

Overall I think that he'd love to win another national title. I think for that to happen he would have to make changes. If the rumors are true and he is only here for 4 more years it won't happen. I can't see him making hard decisions with his staff if he isn't going to be here much longer.

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

I hope you meant new born.

If leaving fetuseses on people's doorstep is wrong, Buckyle doesn't want to be right.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Come back to this thread the morning of Nov 28th...

 

[Steve19]

I think that any team winning a national championship has a lot of luck. Ohio State has had a lot of injuries this year. Lots of players are playing injured. I think the team might not make a BCS bowl and it will be disappointing but I think that Tressel-coached teams will regularly be in the hunt for a national championship precisely because of the values everyone mentions.

Tried and trusted. I don't want anyone else.

 

[Bucklion]

I personally don't think so, because the Big Ten is getting tougher next year, but the national perception is still such that we will basically have to go undefeated to get there, with the yearly SEC suckfest, the number of points scored out west, and now with the push to have undefeated mid-majors from assmeat conferences get to play for it as well. I think he gives us the best chance to do it, and it seems like we're in that conversation almost every season, so I think that's all anyone can realistically hope for in this day and age. Since 2002, we've only had one year where we really didn't matter, and that was 2004, which we still finished strong (5-1), beat dUMb and Penn State, and won a bowl. not many other programs in the country can make that kind of claim (at least without paying players for an aw-shucks coach who claims blindness).

 

[kn1f3party]

I'm still deciding between options two and three, as I think that both are more or less equally applicable. If I knew that there was a clearly better coach out there, I might give option four some serious consideration, but none of the big name guys (Stoops, Meyer, Pelini, Saban, etc.) have anything over Tressel, and with anybody else, you're getting an unknown commodity - maybe you get the next Tressel or Meyer, maybe you get the next Charlie Weis....

I really don't think that JT will win another NC for many reasons - his age, his coaching style, the academic/character restrictions in place at Ohio State (largely implemented by JT himself), and the luck factor involved. Look back at 2002 for a minute. We all remember Holy Buckeye and the PI call, but there were at least ten, perhaps as many as fifteen, game-changing plays that year.

01. Cincinnati - dropped pass in endzone with :48 left in game (UC down by 4)
02. Cincinnati - second dropped pass in endzone with :37 left in game (UC down by 4)
03. Cincinnati - interception in endzone with :32 left in game (UC down by 4)
04. Wisconsin - interception in endzone with 7:09 left in game (UW down by 5)
05. Penn State - Gamble pick six (only TD; game-winning score)
06. Purdue - Holy Buckeye (only TD; game-winning score)
07. Purdue - interception at Ohio State 11-yard line with :51 left in game (Purdue down by 4)
08. Illinois - dropped pass in endzone in OT (Illinois down by 7)
09. Michigan - sack and strip with 2:02 left in game (UM down by 5)
10. Michigan - interception at goal line as time expired (UM down by 5)
11. Miami - 4th-and-14 (kept drive alive in first OT)
12. Miami - the PI call (kept drive alive in first OT)
13. Miami - Krenzel's TD in first OT (tied game)
14. Miami - Clarett's TD (game-winning score)
15. Miami - goal line stand in second OT (Miami down by 7)

Ohio State rolled "seven" on each of those fifteen plays; what are the odds of that happening? If the Buckeyes fail to make even one of those fifteen plays, then they very likely would not have won the NC in 2002; if they go 60-40 on those plays, then they probably lose three or four games. Even a great team needs a little bit of luck, but the Buckeyes had an inordinate amount in 2002. I doubt that we'll ever see a charmed team like that again.

Given that JT will not get another incredible string of luck, I just don't see him being able to win another NC with his coaching style. He doesn't have a cohesive offensive vision, he doesn't use his offense to attack the opposing defenses, and he has struggled to develop a ball-control passing attack. Also, for whatever reason, the line play on both sides of the ball has been suspect from 2004 to the present - maybe that has something to do with passivity as well.

Great post. You also have to figure the Clarett strip of Sean Taylor was one of those completely unexpected twists of events that kept things alive. I see your logic too. Our good and great seasons have been littered with incidents where we have to hit 50 yard field goals to beat a mid major or we have to stop a team to win the game on the final drive. I won't fault JT for being a winner, because he is. What happened in 2002 was miraculous, it was magical. That is what he needed to win a NC at this level and I just don't think he has any of that left up his sleeve.

 

[cbrian815]

Couldn't disagree more.. not sayin Jt's offenses are world-beaters.. I think the problem is with the silver bullets & Heacock.

Bowl game against Texas? Defense gave up the game winning drive.
USC? They marched 90 yards down the field to win.
Wisconsin this past week - It was 18-21 in the 4th quarter and our D choked again.

There are more examples but you guys get my point.


I agree 100%.





For the record, I voted yes.

Great thread.

How can you draw this conclusion based on the fact that year in and year out after 12 or 13 games we have a top 10 - 15 or so defense statistically and the offense, except 2006, ranked in the bottom half of the NCAA. You are neglecting all the seemingly hundreds of times that our offense had the ball inside the red zone or the other side of the 50 yard line, usually because our defense created a turnover and then decided to go 3 and out(the USC game comes to mind).

There is only two consistent football elements of JT tenure here, it is a lack of consistency on the offensive side of the ball, besides 2006 and a stingy defense that ranks top 10 most years. Nobody on this board knows what kind of offense we run.

I voted great ambassador and no additional national championships. Go Bucks

 

[kn1f3party]

Great thread.

How can you draw this conclusion based on the fact that year in and year out after 12 or 13 games we have a top 10 - 15 or so defense statistically and the offense, except 2006, ranked in the bottom half of the NCAA. You are neglecting all the seemingly hundreds of times that our offense had the ball inside the red zone or the other side of the 50 yard line, usually because our defense created a turnover and then decided to go 3 and out(the USC game comes to mind).

There is only two consistent football elements of JT tenure here, it is a lack of consistency on the offensive side of the ball, besides 2006 and a stingy defense that ranks top 10 most years. Nobody on this board knows what kind of offense we run.

I voted great ambassador and no additional national championships. Go Bucks

Can you imagine how dominant our defense would be if our offense gave them a cushion and took some of the pressure off?

 

[DaBears]

I love Tressel and I think he's earned the right to coach as long as he wants. Personally, I think he should hire an offensive coordinator to call the plays (get rid of Bollman) and take over the defense/special teams. I would also want to see more of a pro style, pound it down their throat type offense. There also seems to be a general consensus that getting someone to take over our offense, would be really helpful to the program. In the end, Tressel has forgotten more about football in the time it took me to write this than I will ever know about football in my lifetime. I know Tressel's not perfect, but in Tressel I trust.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Couldn't disagree more.. not sayin Jt's offenses are world-beaters.. I think the problem is with the silver bullets & Heacock.

Bowl game against Texas? Defense gave up the game winning drive.
USC? They marched 90 yards down the field to win.
Wisconsin this past week - It was 18-21 in the 4th quarter and our D choked again.

I agree the defense hasn't been lights out in key situations and that it largely goes unsaid.

However, given the overall body of work we have to deal with I still come to the same conclusion; A program with the resources of OSU shouldn't be so consistently deficient on offense that a bad drive or bad game (and by bad game we are talking 21-24 points allowed) by the defense immediately puts them at risk of losing a game.

That is where the program has been for far too long and the defenses are starting to have more frequent bad games/bad drives. Additionally, the special teams situation this particular year makes me wonder if we aren't seeing the early signs of "coaching fatigue" as has been brought up in another thread.

I wonder aloud based on two simple assumptions that may, or may not, be valid; 1) I don't think its a lack of overall talent anywhere on this team and 2) I don't think the coaches all of a sudden forgot how to coach.

I think there is a gap between what they are being taught and what we see executed on the field.

Furthermore, I think looking back now we've seen a widening of that gap over time, especially since 2006. Sometimes the message just gets stale no matter that the kids rotate out every 4-5 years and while I don't think that is all of what is going on right now I'm pretty confident its at least part of the issue.

 

[bassbuckeye07]

Come back to this thread the morning of Nov 28th...

This^^^^^

I understand the tone of this thread especially after a loss in a year we were poised to make a run (we are not out of it yet folks)... Every year could be the year IMO... most teams have done it after a 7 and 5 type year. You dont know when it will happen but I think it will if he is here for the next 6 years.... You think Braxton Miller is coming here because he doesnt think he could play for a NC... UTenn won after Peyton left im just sayin

 

[Diego-Bucks]

I voted yes. The reason I think so is that with our Big Ten CCG beginning next year, we will begin to see 12-1 Big Ten teams that are considered for the NC game (of course as long as we WIN the Championship Game).

Ohio State also has the non-conference slate in the next 4 years to have the "hype" necessary to be the #1 or #2 team in the nation. I think we have some struggles with various team units, but generally the Buckeyes have an aspect of the game that can allow us to overcome anything. Despite a 21-0 hole, this team could have beat Wisconsin in the 4th quarter, but the defense couldn't finish. If they did, I wouldn't have doubted our offense from imposing their will to win the game. Not many teams can claim the type of confidence that Ohio State instills.

With the Nebraska addition, the conference gets tougher, but it also allows Ohio State to probably "miss" on a game every now and then. This is to our advantage in getting Tressel back to the title game. I'd expect that if Tressel retires in 2015, we still have 2-3 Big Ten Titles (given the impending recruiting classes/talent) that could get us 1-2 NCG births. Only at Alabama, Florida, Texas and Oklahoma would I expect to see similar odds in the next 5 years.

 

[Colvinnl]

I love Tressel and I think he's earned the right to coach as long as he wants . . . In the end, Tressel has forgotten more about football in the time it took me to write this than I will ever know about football in my lifetime. I know Tressel's not perfect, but in Tressel I trust.

Lets not carry this too far. See, Paterno, Joe; Bowden, Bobby.

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

I would vote "No" with both stipulations 1 and 2. He is a great ambassador and there's not anyone better available. And with the additional statement that I would probably vote "No" if asked the same question about almost any other coach in college football.

If asked if any coach is going to win an NC for his current school, I'd vote yes for Saban and Meyer....and that's about it. Everyone else, I'd say "probably not"....obviously, somebody else is going to win it, most likely as soon as this season....but would I trade Coach Tressel for any of those guys who might win it this year? Not so much. Outside of the two I mentioned, I think Coach Tressel is as likely to win an NC in the next 5 years as is any other coach. And I'd say it's rather unlikely.