In trying to predict how the Buckeyes will perform in any given year, I like to look at four things: (1) how the starting line-up compares to last year's; (2) the schedule; (3) how the team is progressing in the pre-season; and (4) intangibles.
1. The Players
Ohio State returns nine starters on offense, plus #2 tailback Boom Herron who will likely continue to split time fairly evenly with Brandon Saine. One thing to note: Duron Carter, who was the #3 wide receiver for most of the 2009 season, was declared academically ineligible for the Rose Bowl, and has since transferred to a junior college.
The defense loses five starters, but one of the returning players (Jermale Hines) will likely switch positions (from "star" to free safety).
2009 Rose Bowl Starter......2010 Opening Game Starter (projected).......Upgrade/Downgrade
QB Terrelle Pryor...........Terrelle Pryor..............................upgrade
RB Saine/Herron.............Saine/Herron/Berry..........................upgrade
FB Zach Boren...............Zach Boren..................................upgrade
WR DeVier Posey.............DeVier Posey................................upgrade
WR Dane Sanzenbacher........Dane Sanzenbacher...........................upgrade
WR Taurian Washington.......???????....................................???????
TE Jake Ballard.............Jake Stoneburner/Reid Fragel................upgrade
LT Jim Cordle...............Mike Adams..................................upgrade
LG Justin Boren.............Justin Boren................................upgrade
OC Michael Brewster.........Michael Brewster............................upgrade
RG Bryant Browning..........Bryant Browning.............................upgrade
RT J.B. Shugarts............J.B. Shugarts...............................upgrade
DE Thad Gibson..............Nate Williams...............................downgrade
DE Cameron Heyward..........Cameron Heyward.............................upgrade
DT Doug Worthington.........Johnny Simon................................downgrade
DT Dexter Larimore..........Dexter Larimore.............................upgrade
LB Brian Rolle..............Brian Rolle.................................upgrade
LB Ross Homan...............Ross Homan..................................upgrade
LB Austin Spitler...........Etienne Sabino/Andrew Sweat.................downgrade
FS Anderson Russell.........Jermale Hines...............................upgrade
SS Kurt Coleman.............Orhian Johnson..............................downgrade
ST Jermale Hines............Tyler Moeller...............................downgrade
CB Chimdi Chekwa............Chimdi Chekwa...............................upgrade
CB Devon Torrence...........Devon Torrence..............................upgrade
Every returning player (except for Taurian Washington, see below) got an automatic upgrade due to having increased experience and physical development.
1A - The Offense
Obviously, junior quarterback Terrelle Pryor is the key to a championship run in 2010. If Pryor can stay healthy, then the Buckeyes will have a chance to win every regular season game; and if Pryor can also take his talents to the next level, then the Buckeyes should win every regular season game, and will be able to compete with anyone in the country for a national championship (and Terrelle will be in NYC in December). Practice reports indicate that Terrelle is continuing to build off of his Rose Bowl performance, which has been the high-water mark of his career to date (20 rushes for 72 yards; 23 of 37 passing for 266 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and 4 sacks). Although Pryor definitely had a landmark performance in the Rose Bowl, he still made plenty of mistakes, both physical and mental; if Pryor can eliminate some of those mistakes, then 2010 should be a record-setting season for him. Specifically, Pryor will be in line to break the Buckeye season records for total yards (3,290 by Bobby Hoying in 1995) and total touchdowns (31 by Bobby Hoying in 1995 and Troy Smith in 2006). And he's still only a junior....
Since Beanie Wells left for the NFL, the Buckeyes have used a running back by committee, with senior Brandon Saine (145 rushes, 739 yards, 5.1 average, 4 TD's) and junior Boom Herron (153 rushes, 600 yards, 3.9 average, 7 TD's) splitting the carries. While Saine and Herron are average at best by Ohio State standards, both are reliable, and Saine provides an added dimension as a receiver out of the backfield (17 receptions, 224 yards, 2 TD's); sophomore Jordan Hall (48 rushes, 248 yards, 5.2 average, 1 TD) showed some flashes last season, and red-shirt freshman Jaamal Berry is the only back on the roster with true breakaway ability. Overall, this is the deepest position on the team, and the only postion that could survive a major injury without any noticeable loss of production.
Sophomore Zach Boren gives the Buckeyes their best true fullback since Jamar Martin left almost a decade ago. While Boren will be primarily a lead blocker in the I-formation, he is also somewhat of a threat as a receiver.
Jake Ballard's Buckeye career was marked by inconsistency, and sophomores Jake Stoneburner and Reid Fragel should provide an upgrade to the position. Stoneburner will likely get several looks per game as a receiver, while Fragel (6' 8", 260 lbs) is essentially another tackle when he is on the field. Both tight ends will be important in the short passing game, and their emergence will allow the Buckeyes to run a more sophisticated offense in 2010.
In my mind, wide receiver junior DeVier Posey (60 receptions, 828 yards, 13.8 average, 8 TD's) was the most disappointing Buckeye in 2009. Although he showed flashes of brilliance, too often he failed to make the tough catches in traffic, the kind of catches that a true #1 wideout must routinely make. For Ohio State's offense to click in 2010, Posey must be more than a deep threat - he must consistently make plays on the outside and over the middle as well. Senior Dane Sanzenbacher (36 receptions, 570 yards, 15.8 average, 6 TD's) has been a solid but unspectacular performer. Although the Posey-Sanzenbacher tandem is competent, without significant improvement this year they will be remembered as the weakest combo since Santonio Holmes and Roy Hall opened the 2004 season as the starting wideouts.
The #3 WR spot is the only real question mark on the offensive side of the ball, and at least four candidates are vying for playing time at that position. Taurian Washington and Grant Schwartz are a pair of seniors who have not had much success on the field, while Chris Fields and James Jackson are red-shirt freshmen with no experience; true freshman Corey "Philly" Brown has shown a lot promise during fall practice and could see some action this season. Of the five, Washington is the only player with any kind of history at the position, but unfortunately that history consists largely of dropped passes. In any event, it is probable that none of the candidates will equal what Duron Carter accomplished as a true freshman, so overall the position has to be considered a downgrade from 2009. However, if the #3 WR is the only relative weakness, then we should expect the Buckeyes' offense to be much improved in 2010.
Outside of Terrelle Pryor, who is a once-in-a-lifetime player, the most talented members of the offense play along the line. This is in marked contrast to recent seasons when the Buckeyes had great skill players (Santonio Holmes, Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez, Antonio Pittman, Chris Wells, Troy Smith, Brian Robiskie, Brian Hartline), but fielded several offensive linemen who could best be described as "sketchy". While Pryor has the skills to make plays for himself, this group has the ability to make an average bunch of backs and receivers shine. The line is anchored by junior Michael Brewster, who will be the Buckeyes' primary starting center for the third straight season. With juniors J.B. Shugarts and Mike Adams at tackle, Ohio State has its first bookends since Korey Stringer and Orlando Pace in 1994. After a shaky 2008 campaign at right tackle, Bryant Browning slid down to guard last year and appeared much more comfortable playing inside. The best of the lot might be senior left guard Justin Boren, who was an All Big Ten performer last season. Although the starting five could be the greatest of the Tressel era, the line has very little proven depth. Senior Andy Miller would start on most teams, and he will back up both tackle spots, but the unit loses top reserve Marcus Hall to a "redshirt"; the rest of the three-deep are freshmen, walk-ons, and senior Connor Smith, who has never even approached his five-star recruiting rankings.
In summary, the keys to the offense are: (1) Terrelle Pryor, and (2) the offensive line keeping Terrelle Pryor healthy. With a solid line and four capable running backs, this Buckeye squad can win a lot of games by grinding it out between the tackles, but for this team to achieve a national championship, Pryor must be able to create big plays with his arm and his feet, all while keeping his head under pressure ... and outstanding line play will help to relieve some of that pressure.
1B. The Defense
Nothing new to report - the Buckeyes will have one of the best defenses in the country in 2010. Although Ohio State lost three important players - defensive end Thad Gibson, defensive tackle Doug Worthington, and All American safety Kurt Coleman - there is plenty of young talent to fill most of the voids.
Unless some unproven young players emerge, the defensive line will not be as deep as in past seasons, but senior defensive end Cameron Heyward (46 tackles, 6.5 sacks) might be the best in the country. On the other side, junior Nathan Williams (26 tackles, 3.5 sacks) has shown tremendous athleticism and big play ability; the question remains - can he be steady and consistent and play within the schemes? Until he can answer that question on the field, Williams will have to be considered a slight downgrade from last year's starter, Thad Gibson. Senior tackle Dexter Larimore (20 tackles during an injury-plagued season) will anchor the middle along with sophomore Johnny Simon (15 tackles, 1.5 sacks in limited action). While Larimore is a solid and steady player, Simon has the potential to be the most disruptive interior lineman since Darrion Scott; Simon is clearly an upgrade in terms of talent, but Doug Worthington was a savvy fifth-year senior who made several huge plays down the stretch of the 2009 season. Of the youngsters, sophomore tackle Garrett Goebel and junior end Solomon Thomas seem to be the most likely to contribute, although redshirt freshman tackle Adam Bellamy has had an impressive camp, and true freshman tackle Johnathan Hankins has been getting rave reviews as a space eating immovable object. The Buckeyes will miss defensive end Keith Wells, who followed Duron Carter to junior college. Without Wells, Ohio State now has three freshman in the depth chart at defensive end - Melvin Fellows, David Durham, and J.T. Moore.
As always, the Buckeyes are once again deep at linebacker. Senior Ross Homan (108 tackles, 5 TFL's, 5 interceptions) looks to be the next in the long line of Ohio State All American linebackers, and senior Brian Rolle (95 tackles, 7 TFL's, 1 interception) should at least be an All Big Ten candidate. Juniors Etienne Sabino and Andrew Sweat are battling for the SAM position vacated by the departing Austin Spitler. Talent-wise, either Sabino or Sweat should be an upgrade over Spitler, but both players lack experience. Heralded youngsters such as Dorian Bell, Storm Klein, Jordan Whiting, Scott McVey and Jonathan Newsome are waiting in the wings.
The defensive backfield will see two new faces in 2010, and one returning starter will be switching positions. Both Chimdi Chekwa (43 tackles, 1 interception) and Devon Torrence (35 tackles, 2 interceptions) return at cornerback; although Chekwa and Torrence should be improved in 2010, cornerback was not exactly one of the defense's strengths last season. At safety, the Buckeyes lose All American Kurt Coleman and the much-maligned Anderson Russell. Although Coleman had big-play ability (8 TFL's, 5 INT's, 3 FF's, 1 TD), he lacked ideal size and speed (5'10", 192 lbs, 4.55 forty according to the NFL combine) and often had difficulty making the routine plays. Little-used sophomore Orhian Johnson (6'2", 205 lbs) will likely replace Coleman at strong safety; while Johnson is more of a physical specimen, it will be nearly impossible for him to replace Coleman's experience and nose for the football. At the other safety, senior Jermale Hines (57 tackles, 3.5 TFL's, 2 interceptions) moves over from the "star" (nickel back) position to replace Anderson Russell. While Russell was the consummate "effort guy", he clearly lost a step (or three) after suffering a knee injury early in his career, and the experienced and athletic Hines should be a clear upgrade, but his coverage abilities will be questioned until he can prove himself on the field. After losing a year to an off-the-field injury, senior Tyler Moeller is back at the "star" position; along with Hines and Johnson, Moeller will give Ohio State one of the hardest-hitting secondaries in the country this season. However, if Moeller is not fully recovered from his head trauma (both physically and psychologically), then look for sophomore C.J. Barnett to enter the mix in some capacity.
Overall, the defense has eight great players up front, and a lot of young depth. Heyward and Homan are arguably the best in the country at their respective positions, and Rolle, Williams, Simon, Sweat, and Sabino give the Buckeyes the kind of superior athleticism that is usually associated with the SEC. If Larimore can be a rock in the middle of this defense like Tim Anderson was in 2002, then you will see Ohio State unleash the troops and wreak havoc on opposing offenses. The question marks with this unit all reside in the secondary - they will punish opposing wideouts, but can they cover them? If the corners can lock down the outside receivers, then I don't see many teams wanting to throw the ball over the middle against Ohio State this year.
1C. The Special Teams
The 2010 special teams are still a work in progress. As things stand right now, senior Devin Barclay is the starting place kicker and sophomore Ben Buchanan is the starting punter, with freshman Drew Basil backing up both positions. Long-time long snapper Jake McQuaide returns for his senior season, and the sure-handed Dane Sanzenbacher will be the holder on place kicks. A host of players are vying for the kick and punt return spots.
Last year, Ohio State's special teams were not very special, and with two inexperienced kickers and no established return men, this year appears to be more of the same. Although special teams often seem like an afterthought, the third unit can sometimes be the difference between a championship season and a heartbreaking one - just ask Bobby Bowden.
1D. Overall Outlook
Terrelle Pryor is a special talent and will be the "face" of the 2010 Buckeyes, deservedly so. But the big uglies - Boren, Brewster, Browning, Shugarts, Adams, Miller, Heyward, Larimore, Williams, Simon, Goebel - will be the men toiling away in the trenches, and that's where games are won and lost. Although national pundits have blamed Ohio State's recent big stage flops (Florida 2006, LSU 2007, USC 2008) on a lack of speed, the reality is that the Buckeyes got beat up and down the lines. Less than two years ago, the starting lines for the Southern Cal games were: Alex Boone (LT), Steve Rehring (LG), Jim Cordle (C), Ben Person (RG), Bryant Browning (RT), Lawrence Wilson (DE), Cameron Heyward (DE), Dexter Larimore (DT), and Nader Abdallah (DT). Heyward, Larimore, and Browning were all young sophomores who have improved greatly since that debacle in The Colisseum, while the other six guys would have a hard time cracking the two-deep on the current team. The recent upgrade in talent has been dramatic, and the coaching staff deserves to be commended for recognizing the problem and dealing with it effectively.
The 2010 Buckeyes may not have a workhorse running back like Beanie Wells, or a speed merchant wide receiver like Santonio Holmes or Ted Ginn, or a lock-down corner like Malcolm Jenkins, or a three-time All American linebacker like James Laurinaitis, but they do have more strength along the lines than any team in recent memory. The guys on the ends of the lines - Adams, Shugarts, Heyward, Williams - will garner the most attention, but the men in the middle - Brewster and Larimore - will be the glue. If those two can perform at least to All Big Ten level this year, then everything else will fall in place behind them. I expect big things from both lines this year, and I seriously doubt that we will see the Buckeyes getting beat at the point of attack, which was a disturbing trend in all of the losses in recent years (and quite a few of the wins, as well). If the big boys do their jobs - and I believe that they will - then expect big things from the running backs and linebackers, and don't worry too much about a secondary that is in a state of flux.
And did I mention that we have Terrelle Pryor...?
2. The Schedule
On paper, Ohio State is at least a touchdown better than any team on their schedule. But games aren't played on paper (or XBox), and there are at least three "loseable" games on the Buckeyes' slate in 2010. With that being said, there is no good reason to pick against Ohio State in any game, and this team has the ability to run the table with relative ease. A 12-0 regular season and a BCS title game appearance (against the SEC or Big XII champ, or perhaps Boise State) should be in order.
2A. September 2: Marshall - The last time that the Buckeyes lost their home opener was in 1978 (to Penn State), and this 31-game winning streak should continue for at least another year. Marshall is a decent team, and Ohio State may be caught looking ahead, but the talent level isn't even close. I like the Thursday night format for two reasons: it gives the team an extra couple of days to prepare for Miami, and it gives me a long weekend in Columbus.
2B. September 11: Miami - Expect the Hurricanes to talk a lot of smack about being "robbed" in 2002, and to promise "redemption" in 2010. Expect the media to get all giddy when raving about Miami's "Florida speed" and the "unstoppable" Jacory Harris. Expect a lot of showboating and swaggering and strutting and bumping Trilla. Expect Ohio State to pound the snot out of the the Hurricanes for sixty minutes and to come away with a convincing win. Last season, Miami was a middle-of-the-road ACC team that got exposed by Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl, and Ohio State will continue to disprove the theory that "Miami is back". The Buckeyes should easily win the battles in the trenches, and they will be able to match the Hurricanes athleticism at the skill positions. With that being said, the Buckeyes could drop this game if they overestimate the Hurricanes' talent and play the game too close to the vest (pun intended). If that happens, then we could see a redux of last year's Southern Cal game, where the Buckeyes were the clearly superior team, but the coaching staff refused several chances to go for the jugular for fear of making a game-changing mistake. This game will define the Buckeyes' season - will the team come out and play fast and loose, and will the coaching staff trust their talented players to make big plays in tough situations ... or will everybody be tense and tight and just trying not to lose?
2C. September 18: Ohio - The last time that Ohio State lost to another in-state team was 1921 (to Oberlin, believe it or not). The Bobcats will play tough, but they'll be lucky to keep the game within twenty points.
2D. September 25: Eastern Michigan - the most notable thing about this game is that it marks the first time in Ohio State history that the Buckeyes will play four teams in a row whose primary color is green. Too bad that Michigan State isn't next in line. In any event, EMU was 0-12 in the MAC last season (yes, they even lost to Michigan). 'Nuff said.
2E. October 2: Illinois - This will be the Buckeyes' first road trip in 2010, but don't expect that to matter too much. Illinois is a program in serious decline (and they weren't really all that good back during their breakout year of 2007), so the Buckeyes should win this one going away.
2F. October 9: Indiana - During the Tressel era, Ohio State owns a perfect 7-0 record versus Indiana, with a 225 to 71 edge in points scored (that's an average score per game of 36 to 10). This will be a tune-up for the Buckeyes first big road test of the year....
2G. October 16: Wisconsin - Which Big Ten team has given JT the most trouble during his tenure at Ohio State? Yep, you guessed it - the Wisconsin Badgers. Ohio State owns a slight 4-3 edge in head-to-head competition, with the average score being just 21 to 17 in favor of the good guys. Last year, the Buckeyes won a mini-blowout over the Badgers, but the scoreboard was somewhat misleading - Wisky had huge edges in total yards (368 to 184), first downs (22 to 8) and time of possession (42:35 to 17:25), but Ohio State scored 21 points on a kick-off return (Ray Small) and two pick sixes (Kurt Coleman and Jermale Hines), and the offense added ten points for good measure. Perhaps Wisconsin's success against Ohio State comes from the fact that the Badgers play their own verison of Tresselball that relies on a strong running game and a smothering defense. Wisconsin returns 18 starters, including Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year John Clay (1,517 yards, 18 TD's). The game will be in Madison at night, never a good combination. Nevertheless, the Buckeyes should be able to shut down the Badgers rushing attack (last year, Wisky gained only 118 yards on 44 attempts, for a paltry 2.7 yards per carry, and 46 of those yards came on 4 jet sweeps and a fake field goal). If the defense is equally stingy this year, then the game will be put game squarely on the shoulders of the Ohio State offense. Will Tressel unleash the extraordinary Terrelle Pryor and attack the Badgers from start to finish, or will he use his stable of ordinary running backs to set up the punt? If this game is a battle of athletes, then Ohio State wins hands down ... but if it turns out to be a battle of field position, then look for Wisconsin to score the upset and ruin the Buckeyes' national championship hopes.
2H. October 23: Purdue - In what might have been the worst game of the Tressel regime, Ohio State lost to a 1-5 Purdue team last year by the score of 26 to 18 ... and the score doesn't really reflect just how ugly that game was: Purdue held the edge in total yards (361 to 287), first downs (24 to 12), and time of possession (36:08 to 23:52), and the Boilermaker defense (ranked #69 in FBS in 2009) forced five turnovers and notched five sacks. Clearly, the Buckeyes didn't show up last season, but Purdue has always played Ohio State tough in recent years: since 2002, the Buckeyes' record against the Boilers is just 4-2, with a slim 100 to 79 edge in scoring (17 to 13 on a per-game basis; only six offensive touchdowns in six games). However, even if Purdue continues to give Ohio State fits, I still can't see the Buckeyes losing two in a row to one of the bottom feeders of the Big Ten.
2I. October 30: Minnesota - Tressel has never lost to Minnesota, and nothing will change this year. Yeah, the game is on the road at night, but that trick only works for Wisconsin.
2J. November 6: bye week - While at Ohio State, Jim Tressel is just 2-4 in games following bye weeks, with losses in 2001 (UCLA), 2003 (Wisconsin), 2004 (Northwestern), and 2005 (Penn State), and wins in 2002 (Kent State) and 2008 (Northwestern). Ohio State did not have bye weeks in 2006, 2007, and 2009.
2K. November 13: Penn State - The Nittany Lions lost a lot of talent from a team that struggled mightily against the Buckeyes last season, and this game shouldn't really be close. Even though Ohio State has trouble ramping up after a bye week, the Buckeyes have the clearly superior team and they should win this game handily.
2L. November 20: Iowa - The national media are already circling this game on the calendar as a battle for the Big Ten title between two undefeated titans, but I'm not convinced that Iowa is all that. Last year, the Hawkeyes were a Cinderella team that lead a charmed life until stumbling in week 10 against Northwestern. Prior to that initial loss, however, Iowa had four narrow victories against very mediocre competition: 15-13 over Michigan State (6-7 final record), 30-28 over Michigan (5-7 final record), 24-21 over Arkansas State (4-8 final record in the Sun Belt Conference), and 17-16 over Northern Iowa (a middling FCS school). Undoubtedly, much will be made of the fact that the Hawkeyes nearly pulled a week 11 upset of Ohio State, but the Buckeyes had a comfortable 24-10 lead in the fourth quarter before falling asleep at the wheel. The last time that everyone anointed Iowa as the team to beat in the Big Ten, Ohio State blew them out 38-17. On the road. At night. In a "gold out". If the most overrated team in the conference hasn't been exposed before Ohio State arrives in town, then November 20th will mark the end of another Cinderella season in Iowa City.
2M. November 27: Michigan - In explaining the power of ritual magic, Sir James G. Frazer said, "The danger, however, is not less real because it is imaginary." And that, I think, describes Michigan. No one, not even the most delusional Wolverine fan, can make a logical, rational argument that Michigan will beat Ohio State this year. In comparing the two teams position by position, I would be hard-pressed to give Michigan the edge at any single one of them. Yet, this is The Game, and I must still give Michigan a chance to win. Why? Not because of Denard Robinson's shoelaces or Tate Forcier's jazz hands. Not because of the Wolverines' high-powered spread offense. Not because of their fearsome 3-3-5 defensive scheme. Not even because the power of Rich Rodriguez's tears can cause miracles to happen. No, it's simply because some time during the next century the Wolverines will have to win another game in this series, and this year their odds are as good as any. Maybe Ohio State turns the ball over eleven times, maybe the entire defense gets food poisoning the night before The Game, maybe Jim Tressel calls "Dave" every play ... who knows? The danger is still real even if it is imaginary.
3. The Offseason
So far, there is nothing much to report: there have been no major injuries, and the few off-the-field incidents have involved minor contributors (wide receiver Duron Carter, offensive tackle Marcus Hall, and defensive end Keith Wells, each of whom will be out of action in 2010). The team is said to have excellent chemistry and no problems in the locker room.
Last year, the Buckeyes were 11-2 with a Rose Bowl victory, and most of that team returns intact in 2010. In retrospect, both of the 2009 losses could easily have been wins, so there's reason to believe that the present team can run the table with little or no improvement over last year. However, all of the reports out of camp indicate that Terrelle Pryor is fully recovered from nagging injuries, is more comfortable running the offense, and has emerged as a true team leader. Additionally, the massive and talented offensive line is supposed to be coming together, and the running backs corps is once again proving to be both steady and deep. The main questions on the offensive side of the ball are: (1) Will DeVier Posey finally become a #1 receiver in the tradition of Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, David Boston, Michael Jenkins, and Santonio Holmes? (2) Will someone step up and grab the #3 receiver position? and (3) Will the tight ends finally be integrated into the game plan?
The defense has performed well, as usual. The major position battle is between Etienne Sabino and Andrew Sweat for the SAM linebacker spot, and the major question mark is the secondary, which is set but unproven. Even with five new faces in the starting lineup, there is enough returning talent to cover the few potential weaknesses on the defense. The main question is this: Which youngsters will earn playing time this season? There are over a dozen returning defensive players who have freshman or sophomore eligibility but who have rarely seen the field in meaningful situations - Garrett Goebel, Adam Bellamy, Melvin Fellows, Dorian Bell, Storm Klein, Jonathan Newsome, Jordan Whiting, Travis Howard, Zach Domicone, Orhian Johnson, Corey Brown, C.J. Barnett, Jamie Wood, and Dominic Clarke. By all accounts, this is a very talented bunch of kids, and at least one of them should have a breakout season in 2010. And will a true freshman like Johnathan Hankins be able to beat the numbers game and contribute this year?
4. The Intangibles
The Buckeyes' greatest weakness has often been considered their greatest strength - head coach Jim Tressel. Coach Tressel's job is not on the line, but his legacy certainly is. Will he be remembered as a great role model who developed young men into fine citizens ... or the guy who won a national championship with someone else's ruffians and rabble rousers? Will he go down in history as a legendary coach with multiple national championships like Woody Hayes, Bear Bryant, Joe Paterno, Bobby Bowden, John McKay, Tom Osborne, and Ara Parseghian ... or will he be just another good coach who got lucky and happened to win one along the way, like Lloyd Carr, Phil Fulmer, Howard Schnellenberger, Danny Ford, Larry Coker, Bill McCartney, and Bobby Ross? Will he forever be the Wolverine Slayer ... or the coach who couldn't beat anybody else in the big games? And will he finally be able to erase the memory of the Debacle in the Desert?
To solidify his legacy as one of the all-time greats, Coach Tressel needs to win another national championship, and his window is already beginning to close. Tressel will be 58 years old in December, and 2010 will mark his tenth season at the helm for Ohio State; he is on record as stating that he doesn't want to coach until the bitter end, and there is much speculation that he will retire when his contract expires after the 2014 season.
For the 2010 season, Coach Tressel has assembled arguably the greatest collection of talent in Buckeye history (although the 1942, 1944, 1954, 1968, 1973, 1996, 1998, 2002, and 2005 teams would beg to differ). Certainly, the coach has more than enough talent to beat anyone on his schedule, and probably anyone in the country. But can Tressel avoid being his own worst enemy? Although the big game blowouts have garnered the most media attention, to me the more disturbing losses are the close games: Texas 2005, Penn State 2008, Texas 2008, Southern Cal 2009. In each of those games, the Buckeyes Tresselballed their way to a come-from-ahead fourth quarter loss. The current team has too much talent and athleticism to play field position, field goal football - the offense must continue to attack until each opponent has been put away, or else I fear that we will see another game slip through the cracks in the closing moments. All of the pieces are in place - now is the time to use them to their full potential. And that is on the head coach.
As far as the team itself goes, the intagibles are all there. This team is experienced - many of the key players will be three-year starters in 2010 (Pryor, Brewster, Browning, Boren, Heyward, Homan, Chekwa), and only a couple of relative newbies (Johnny Simon, Orhian Johnson, C.J. Barnett) will be asked to make major contributions this season. The team is also hungry, as the stated goal of the heralded 2008 recruiting class was to win "multiple national championships" ... and they are stuck on zero with only two years left to go. The team is also unified, with no locker room factions, no loose cannons, and no quarterback controveries. I also believe that this team is mentally and physically tough enough to win a national championship.
5. The Prediction
It is never a wise thing to predict a national championship, as the best teams often falter at inopportune moments. Ohio State has never won a national championship when they were supposed to, and they have taken home the title only when no one expected them to. Given that history, the smart money would bet against the Buckeyes this year, but it is really difficult to do that when so many factors point in the direction of a season of dreams.
Ohio State will probably blow out at least one good team (Miami, Wisconsin, Iowa), and probably squeak by some huge underdogs (Marshall, Purdue, Michigan), but at the end of the regular season they should be a perfect 12-0 and in the BCS Championship Game. From there, it's anybody's guess.
But if I had to lay real money on it, then I'd say that something will go wrong ... again.
