What Will the Buckeyes' Record Be in 2010?

[Muck]

I forgot more about football than most of you.

Please explain.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

Please explain.

Well, he's been gone for a month so I'll give it my best shot for him.

Apparently he thinks our #7 ranking HERE is too predictable.

 

[Yertle]

Actually, he said he has forgotten more about football than I've (or you've) forgotten about football. He was simply suggesting that he has a really crappy memory. I feel bad for the guy.

 

[LordJeffBuck]

Here's a little post-season review of my pre-season predictions:

Obviously, junior quarterback Terrelle Pryor is the key to a championship run in 2010 ... [and] 2010 should be a record-setting season for him. Specifically, Pryor will be in line to break the Buckeye season records for total yards (3,290 by Bobby Hoying in 1995) and total touchdowns (31 by Bobby Hoying in 1995 and Troy Smith in 2006).

Entering the bowl game, Pryor has 3,190 total yards (266 yards per game) and 29 total touchdowns. Pryor's running skills are on par with Cam Newton's, but he is averaging just ten attempts per game, which accounts for his relatively lackluster numbers (639 yards and 4 TD's) in comparison to Newton (1,338 yards and 18 TD's on 19 carries per game). Pryor's passing has noticably improved this season, and most of his eleven interceptions came when he made bad decisions under pressure, often trying too hard to make a play with his arm when he had a much better opportunity to make one with his feet.

While Saine and Herron are average at best by Ohio State standards, both are reliable, and Saine provides an added dimension as a receiver out of the backfield.... Sophomore Zach Boren gives the Buckeyes their best true fullback since Jamar Martin left almost a decade ago.

Herron has always been a tough runner, but improved vision and timing have allowed him to take his game up a notch (1,068 yards, 5.6 ypc, 15 TD's). Saine has definitely been a threat as a receiver (22 receptions, 195 yards, 5 TD's), but as a runner he is good for a few carries a game as a change of pace to Herron's brusing style. Zach Boren has been a force as a blocker in the I-formation, and he is one of the main reasons for Herron's much-improved production (1.7 increase in ypc from 2009 to 2010).

In my mind, wide receiver junior DeVier Posey (60 receptions, 828 yards, 13.8 average, 8 TD's) was the most disappointing Buckeye in 2009. Although he showed flashes of brilliance, too often he failed to make the tough catches in traffic, the kind of catches that a true #1 wideout must routinely make.... Senior Dane Sanzenbacher (36 receptions, 570 yards, 15.8 average, 6 TD's) has been a solid but unspectacular performer.... The #3 WR spot is the only real question mark on the offensive side of the ball....

Despite impressive numbers (50 receptions, 778 yards, 15.6 average, 6 TD's), Posey has continued to disappoint, with several huge drops and not enough clutch catches; he has also committed three major penalties in 2010. On the other hand, Sanzenbacher has become the Buckeyes' go-to receiver (52 receptions, 889 yards, 17.1 average, 10 TD's); Sanzo has always had good hands and the ability to work the middle of the field, but this season he has also shown enough speed to test defenses deep. The Buckeyes have not yet discovered a #3 wide receiver, but unlike previous seasons, their running backs and tight ends have been a force in the passing attack, combining for 85 receptions, 821 yards, and 10 touchdowns.

Outside of Terrelle Pryor, who is a once-in-a-lifetime player, the most talented members of the offense play along the line.

Finally, Ohio State has an offensive line that would make Woody Hayes proud. Left tackle Mike Adams, who has gone from the outhouse to the doghouse to the penthouse, is easily the most improved player on the team, and he joins left guard Justin Boren and center Michael Brewster as first team All Big Ten selections. Right guard Bryant Browning has been steady, and right tackle J.B. Shugarts has played well despite a lingering foot injury. The line has been a key factor in Ohio State's suddenly explosive offense, which ranks 20th in the nation in total offense (448.8 yards per game) and 10th in scoring offense (39.4 points per game). By the numbers, the 2010 offense is the best in the Tressel era - during the previous nine seasons, the highest output that the Buckeyes could produce was 422.3 yards per game in 2005 and 34.6 points per game in 2006, and on average during that period they placed 66th in total offense with 366.5 yards per game (82.3 less than the 2010 team) and 47th in scoring offense with 28.8 points per game (10.6 less than the 2010 team). Clearly the current offense has enough firepower to win games if the defense and/or special teams have an off day.

1B. The Defense

Nothing new to report - the Buckeyes will have one of the best defenses in the country in 2010.... Unless some unproven young players emerge, the defensive line will not be as deep as in past seasons, but senior defensive end Cameron Heyward (46 tackles, 6.5 sacks) might be the best in the country. On the other side, junior Nathan Williams (26 tackles, 3.5 sacks) has shown tremendous athleticism and big play ability; the question remains - can he be steady and consistent and play within the schemes? Senior tackle Dexter Larimore (20 tackles during an injury-plagued season) will anchor the middle along with sophomore Johnny Simon (15 tackles, 1.5 sacks in limited action). While Larimore is a solid and steady player, Simon has the potential to be the most disruptive interior lineman since Darrion Scott....

The defensive line has been solid, but it has not produced enough game-changing plays. As a group, the line has produced just 35.5 TFL's and 12 sacks, with over 90% of that production coming from the starters. However, they have been very good at playing their assignments which has helped to eliminate big plays.

Senior Ross Homan (108 tackles, 5 TFL's, 5 interceptions) looks to be the next in the long line of Ohio State All American linebackers, and senior Brian Rolle (95 tackles, 7 TFL's, 1 interception) should at least be an All Big Ten candidate.

Rolle is a team captain and the emotional leader of the defense, and he did in fact make the All Big Ten first team. Although he was credited with only 70 total tackles, Rolle seemed to be all over the field, and he created several big plays (10 TFL's, 2.5 sacks, 2 INT's, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 blocked kick). On the other hand, Homan was a disappointment (63 tackles, 2 TFL's, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR); although he did suffer an injury midseason, Ross never seemed to play up to his 2009 level, when he was arguably the best linebacker in the country.

[A]lthough Chekwa and Torrence should be improved in 2010, cornerback was not exactly one of the defense's strengths last season. At safety, the Buckeyes lose All American Kurt Coleman and the much-maligned Anderson Russell.... Little-used sophomore Orhian Johnson (6'2", 205 lbs) will likely replace Coleman at strong safety; while Johnson is more of a physical specimen, it will be nearly impossible for him to replace Coleman's experience and nose for the football. At the other safety, senior Jermale Hines (57 tackles, 3.5 TFL's, 2 interceptions) moves over from the "star" (nickel back) position to replace Anderson Russell.

Teams have had success throwing against the Buckeye cornerbacks (especially Torrence); although neither one has "lock down" ability, they rarely get beat deep. Johnson has been spotty in both coverage and run support, while Hines has been the glue of the secondary. Nickel back Travis Howard is a star in waiting.

After watching this defense all year, it is hard for me to believe that they are ranked second in the nation in total defense (250.6 yards per game) and third in scoring defense (13.3 points per game). I get the impression that this defense is just a little bit soft, although that may have to do more with the philosophy of the schemes than the physicality of the players. Still, teams have had success moving the ball against Ohio State at times (Miami, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, even Eastern Michigan), but often the defense has been able to come up with key turnovers to stop momentum (18 interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries, 4 return touchdowns on the season).

1C. The Special Teams

The 2010 special teams are still a work in progress.... Last year, Ohio State's special teams were not very special, and with two inexperienced kickers and no established return men, this year appears to be more of the same. Although special teams often seem like an afterthought, the third unit can sometimes be the difference between a championship season and a heartbreaking one - just ask Bobby Bowden.

As things turned out, the problem with the special teams wasn't with the kickers or the return men, but rather with the coverage units. The Buckeyes were able to survive two special teams gaffes against Miami, but when Wisconsin returned the opening kick-off for a touchdown, the game was over before it started ... and as things turned out, that was been the difference between a championship season and a heartbreaking one.

2. The Schedule

On paper, Ohio State is at least a touchdown better than any team on their schedule. But games aren't played on paper (or XBox), and there are at least three "loseable" games on the Buckeyes' slate in 2010. With that being said, there is no good reason to pick against Ohio State in any game, and this team has the ability to run the table with relative ease. A 12-0 regular season and a BCS title game appearance (against the SEC or Big XII champ, or perhaps Boise State) should be in order.

* * *

2G. October 16: Wisconsin - Which Big Ten team has given JT the most trouble during his tenure at Ohio State? Yep, you guessed it - the Wisconsin Badgers. Ohio State owns a slight 4-3 edge in head-to-head competition, with the average score being just 21 to 17 in favor of the good guys. Last year, the Buckeyes won a mini-blowout over the Badgers, but the scoreboard was somewhat misleading - Wisky had huge edges in total yards (368 to 184), first downs (22 to 8) and time of possession (42:35 to 17:25), but Ohio State scored 21 points on a kick-off return (Ray Small) and two pick sixes (Kurt Coleman and Jermale Hines), and the offense added ten points for good measure. Perhaps Wisconsin's success against Ohio State comes from the fact that the Badgers play their own verison of Tresselball that relies on a strong running game and a smothering defense. Wisconsin returns 18 starters, including Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year John Clay (1,517 yards, 18 TD's). The game will be in Madison at night, never a good combination. Nevertheless, the Buckeyes should be able to shut down the Badgers rushing attack (last year, Wisky gained only 118 yards on 44 attempts, for a paltry 2.7 yards per carry, and 46 of those yards came on 4 jet sweeps and a fake field goal). If the defense is equally stingy this year, then the game will be put game squarely on the shoulders of the Ohio State offense. Will Tressel unleash the extraordinary Terrelle Pryor and attack the Badgers from start to finish, or will he use his stable of ordinary running backs to set up the punt? If this game is a battle of athletes, then Ohio State wins hands down ... but if it turns out to be a battle of field position, then look for Wisconsin to score the upset and ruin the Buckeyes' national championship hopes.

This was the game that we all feared heading into the season, and it did in fact turn out to be Ohio State's downfall. A terrible first half on all fronts (offense, defense, special teams, and coaching) put the Buckeyes in a 21-0 hole, and they simply couldn't climb out despite having had some excellent opportunities to do so.

5. The Prediction

Ohio State will probably blow out at least one good team (Miami, Wisconsin, Iowa), and probably squeak by some huge underdogs (Marshall, Purdue, Michigan), but at the end of the regular season they should be a perfect 12-0 and in the BCS Championship Game. From there, it's anybody's guess.

But if I had to lay real money on it, then I'd say that something will go wrong ... again.

For once, Ohio State had no problem playing down to its competition (well, maybe against Penn State in the first half, but that's about it). The only tough games were the ones that were supposed to be tough - Iowa and Wisconsin on the road. While the Buckeyes eked out a narrow win at Iowa, they got steamrolled early at Wisconsin and couldn't quite come back in the second half. And that my friends is what went wrong in 2010.

 

[Bucklion]

Ok, I'm finished here. This is very clearly a Rah Rah nothing is ever wrong and everything is fine forum. If you know anything about the "game" of football and post an "improvement" type of post here you will be banned or punished because you are not a "everything is OK" mindset. Rah Rah Buckseyes and Rah Rah Rah Tressel. Live in a dream world folks but the game is evolving and the "cloud of dust run up the middle " every two out of three downs is gone. The game is about adjustments and if you go into a game with the "here's our gameplan and we're not going to alter it , a good coach on the opposite sideline will beat you. WAKE UP. BAN ME. I forgot more about football than most of you. Class of "78" GO BUCKS...............But quit running plays that everyone in the stadium is calling. GOODBYE AND GOOD LUCK.......

I'm sure our rah rah friend enjoyed another 11 win season he took for granted...