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We are not out yet!! (Okay, now we are....)

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MililaniBuckeye said:
After reviewing a lot of posts here, I've revised my guess as to what the top-10 will look like:

  1. Clemson (12-0)
  2. Alabama (11-1)
  3. Oklahoma (11-1)
  4. Iowa (12-0)
  5. Michigan State (11-1)
  6. Ohio State (11-1)
  7. FSU (10-2)
  8. UNC (11-1)
  9. Stanford (9-2)
  10. Notre Dame (10-2)
I would not be too surprised if they swap FSU and UNC, but since FSU was already a spot ahead of UNC and had a more impressive win against a much better opponent, I think FSU gets the nod.
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Do you think that is UNC is at #7/8 and they beat Clemson that they would put OSU in over them based on "sex appeal"? (Of course they wouldn't openly admit to it)
 
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SEREbuckeye said:
Do you think that is UNC is at #7/8 and they beat Clemson that they would put OSU in over them based on "sex appeal"? (Of course they wouldn't openly admit to it)
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Absolutely. As I mentioned earlier, UNC will have given the undefeated #1 team its first loss and will be a conference champion. We didn't even win our division (yeah, we tied, but lost the tiebreaker).
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Absolutely. As I mentioned earlier, UNC will have given the undefeated # team its first loss and will be a conference champion. We didn't even win our division (yeah, we tied, but lost the tiebreaker).
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I agree. If you take what the committee has said without a cynical view, I think ACC champ, B1G champ, and Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) are locks. If Bama wins, they are in. If Bama loses and Stanford wins, I think it will be close between a PAC 12 champ Stanford and Ohio State. IMO our only chance to make it involves MSU winning and Bama and Stanford losing. After seeing what Florida has been doing lately, I don't think Bama is losing.
 
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matttank said:
I agree. If you take what the committee has said without a cynical view, I think ACC champ, B1G champ, and Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) are locks. If Bama wins, they are in. If Bama loses and Stanford wins, I think it will be close between a PAC 12 champ Stanford and Ohio State. IMO our only chance to make it involves MSU winning and Bama and Stanford losing. After seeing what Florida has been doing lately, I don't think Bama is losing.
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I think that if Alabama losses, MSU dominates Iowa, and Stanford doesn't dominate USC, we get in ahead of Stanford:

Stanford has two losses.
Our only loss would be to our conference champ and it was on the last play of the game.

I think the committee will also look at how we demolished the same Michigan team that by all rights should've beaten Michigan State. Even many of the talking heads on TV said that if the MSU/OSU game weren't played under such nasty weather that the result likely would have different. So, I'm not worried about Stanford jumping us even if they win the PAC12CG, unless they flat blow out USC.
 
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matttank said:
If Bama loses and Stanford wins, I think it will be close between a PAC 12 champ Stanford and Ohio State.
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I don't think a 2 loss conference champ should get in. The committee will look at the body of the teams work. I don't think the extra game against an 8-4 USC team will push them over an 11-1 non conference champ like OSU.
matttank said:
After seeing what Florida has been doing lately, I don't think Bama is losing.
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I agree, which makes everything else moot.
 
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Buckeyefrankmp said:
I don't think a 2 loss conference champ should get in. The committee will look at the body of the teams work. I don't think the extra game against an 8-4 USC team will push them over an 11-1 non conference champ like OSU.

I agree, which makes everything else moot.
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Don't forget that two of those committee members are Condi and Ty Willingham. Also, I don't see Alvarez and St. Tom going to the mattresses for us given that a B1G team will already be in. In fact, given that the conference will already be covered, I could see them acting against our interests. We need Alabama and Stanford to lose!

The rules state that, for a non-champion to get in, they need to be an unequivocal choice over the conference champion(s) being left out. The burden of proof is going to be on anyone in that room advocating Ohio State over UNC or Stanford.
 
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Sacrilege, but I don't want the Rose Bowl because I don't want the Pac12. None of those matchups are that interesting to me. I would rather beat up on an SEC team or perhaps one of the BIG12 patsies. Florida State and Notre Dame would be fun too.

Either Utah or Florida would be interesting as former stepping stones for Urban Meyer, but neither are good enough to match up with us this year.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
UNC will jump no fewer than five teams (#6 ND, #7 Baylor, #10 Michigan, #11 Okie State, and #12 Florida, all of whom lost yesterday and have multiples losses). UNC may or may not also jump #13 FSU, who manhandled #12 Florida, but since FSU does have those two losses and won't be in the ACCCG, it's pretty much a moot point.
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we shall see

Like I said, I don't think my opinions are certain outcomes. I deal in probabilities, not absolutes.
 
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Well, watching the "Who's In" college football show playoff show today, we're out. They all believe ACC and/or PAC 12 is ahead of us to get in. Some even think we might be 7th this week. Guess we'll wait and see but a 2 loss Stanford jumping us would piss me off for sure considering they got thoroughly blasted by Northwestern.
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
Don't forget that two of those committee members are Condi and Ty Willingham. Also, I don't see Alvarez and St. Tom going to the mattresses for us given that a B1G team will already be in. In fact, given that the conference will already be covered, I could see them acting against our interests. We need Alabama and Stanford to lose!

The rules state that, for a non-champion to get in, they need to be an unequivocal choice over the conference champion(s) being left out. The burden of proof is going to be on anyone in that room advocating Ohio State over UNC or Stanford.
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It could be tough for the committee to argue us over a 1-loss UNC who just beat the #1 team, but they should have no qualms about putting us over a 2-loss Stanford.
 
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