GAME OF THE WEEK
Ohio State (9-1) at Iowa (7-3) Nov. 20, 3:30, ABC
Here?s The Deal ? There are still several key parts to the Big Ten puzzle with Wisconsin with two interesting battles and Michigan State with a fight at Penn State, but if everything holds to form and if there aren?t any major surprises, this game will end up being the key to the Rose Bowl chase. If Iowa wins, Michigan State will be in the driver?s seat to Pasadena tied up top with the Badgers and holding the tie-breaker with the win, but Ohio State could throw a wrench into the mix with a win. If the Buckeyes win, and if Wisconsin and Michigan State win out, there will be a three-way tie with the tie-breaker the BCS rankings. Right now, the Badgers are up top, but OSU could move up and could become the highest-ranked Big Ten team with blowouts in Iowa City and against Michigan. Easy, right?
Basically, if you?re an MSU fan, you desperately need Iowa to win, and if you?re a Wisconsin fan, you need Ohio State to win ugly.
The Hawkeyes would?ve been a major part of the Big Ten title discussion but it couldn?t hold on against Dan Persa and Northwestern in the final moments in a 21-17 loss, and while that might have been disappointing, they should?ve lost the week before at Indiana, surviving a dropped touchdown pass in the final seconds. Even with the rough patch, Iowa can still win a share of the title by winning this week and winning at Minnesota to follow, while hoping Wisconsin and Michigan State collapse. But beating Ohio State would be good enough for right now considering the Hawkeyes have lost three straight in the series and 11 of the last 12 with the last win coming in 2004. For a team coming into the season thinking national title, a fourth loss would be disastrous.
Ohio State has looked every bit like the No. 1 team it was before losing in Madison, rolling up Purdue, Minnesota, and Penn State by a combined score of 139 to 24. All nine wins this season have been by double digits, and while the BCS computers haven?t been impressed, the humans will take note if the Buckeyes can continue to dominate and come up with a strong win this week.
Why Ohio State Might Win: All of a sudden, the Iowa offense has simply stopped scoring. The passing game is working, with Ricky Stanzi throwing for 290 yards against Indiana and 270 against Northwestern, and the running game hasn?t been miserable, even though it was held in check by the Wildcats, but the yards haven translated into points. After scoring without a problem against Michigan, Wisconsin, and Michigan State, to suddenly start to sputter against the Hoosiers (who just got tagged for 83 by Wisconsin) and the Wildcats is a major problem. Ohio State?s defensive front is dominating, allowing three rushing touchdowns to Wisconsin and just four to everyone else, while the two first half touchdown passes the secondary allowed at Penn State last week were the lone scores allowed through the air in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes haven?t allowed more than 162 passing yards since late September when Eastern Michigan bombed away against the backups in a 73-20 loss. In other words, this isn?t going to be the week when the Iowa offense suddenly finds itself. Ohio State is fourth in the nation in third down defense, but ?
Why Iowa Might Win: ? Iowa only allows teams to convert 36% of their third down chances. The Ohio State offense is just begging to get stuffed. Yeah, rolling up passing yards against Purdue and Minnesota is cute, and the running game was dominant against a mediocre Penn State defensive front, but the Buckeye attack has been inconsistent, with no passing attack one week against Illinois, and blowing up against Indiana the next, and the jury is still out on whether or not Terrelle Pryor can complete a downfield pass when under consistent pressure from a great defensive front. The Iowa line has been disappointing considering all the talent, and it doesn?t come up with a ton of sacks, but it generates plenty of hurries. Northwestern?s Dan Persa was able to thrive under the constant pressure and kept his eyes down the field to make things happen, but that?s not necessarily Pryor?s strong suit. He?s great on the move, but he?s not a passer on third downs of any appreciable distance.
What To Watch Out For: It?s NFL scouting time. It?s a big year for defensive linemen with Clemson?s Da?Quan Bowers, Alabama?s Marcell Dareus, Auburn?s Nick Fairley, North Carolina?s Robert Quinn, and Oregon State?s Stephen Paea all considered among the top 20 prospects, but Iowa?s Adrian Clayborn and Ohio State?s Cameron Heyward are near-locks to go in the first round. However, each needs to show a bit more. Clayborn hasn?t been a disappointment, but considering he came into the season as a sure-thing top five overall talent, he hasn?t delivered. The pass rushing production has been way down, he has been a half-step off way too many times, and he hasn?t been nearly as active against the run as he was last season. However, he?s still a top talent who can get back among the top picks in a big hurry with a strong finish. Meanwhile, Ohio State?s Cameron Heyward is being seen as a possible great value pick late in the first round. He more than held his own against Wisconsin?s Gabe Carimi, possibly the top offensive tackle in the draft, and he has been great at getting into the backfield as the team?s leader in tackles for loss. The spotlight will be on both of them.
What Will Happen: The Ohio State defense will keep Iowa?s offense under wraps. It?s not like the Buckeye attack is going to explode, Pryor will have a rough day, but the Iowa running game will do next to nothing and Stanzi, who didn?t play in last year?s classic, won?t be able to pick up the slack for a full sixty minutes. The Hawkeye receiving corps will have its moment, just not enough of them.
CFN Prediction: Ohio State 26 ? Iowa 21 ? Line: Ohio State -3
Must See Rating: Casino Jack ? 5 ? Avatar: Extended Collector?s Edition -1 ? 5
