This Game should come down to C.J. Stroud.
Which Stroud will show up today? If Sparty Stroud is in the house, then there's no way Michigan can win and The Game is likely a blowout in favor of Ohio State. If we get Nebby Stroud, then it's going to be a close contest and Stroud will need to prove that he can win one in the fourth quarter.
"Heisman" Stroud has showed up five times this years, not coincidentally against four mediocre-to-bad defenses (Rutgers, #60 total defense; Indiana, #68; Maryland, #98; Michigan State, #120), and also against a surprisingly good Purdue defense (#43 total defense; #22 pass yards allowed). Stroud's numbers from those five games against teams whose average total defense ranked #78:
125 for 157 (.796); 1795 yards (359.0 yards per game; 119.7 yards per quarter); 25 TDs; 0 INTs; 3 sacks; 228.20 pass efficiency; 258 offensive points (51.6 points per game; 17.2 points per quarter)
"Freshman" Stroud has also shown up five times, also not coincidentally against better defenses (Minnesota, #4 total defense; Penn State, #27; Nebraska, #55; Oregon, #58; Tulsa, #69; average rank #43). Stroud's numbers in those five games:
121 for 189 (.640); 1683 yards (336.6 yards per game; 84.2 yards per quarter); 11 TDs; 5 INTs; 6 sacks; 152.74 pass efficiency; 152 offensive points (30.4 points per game; 7.6 points per quarter)
There's really no need to analyze "Heisman" Stroud on a game-by-game basis, because he has literally and statistically been the best QB in CFB during those five games. So let's look at those other five games instead:
Minnesota: 13 for 22 (.591); 294 yards; 4 TDs; INT; 0 sacks; 222.25 pass efficiency; 38 offensive points
The pass efficiency number looks really nice, but Stroud looked shaky during the first half (understandably so, in his first collegiate start, on the road, at night, against what has turned out to be the #4 defense in FBS). Stroud benefitted immensely from four offensive TDs of 50+ yards (first time in 15 years that had happened at Ohio State; 2006 Fiesta Bowl vs Notre Dame), a defensive TD, and especially 203 yards after catch (69.0% of his total passing yards). Ohio State wins, 45-31.
Oregon: 35 for 54 (.648); 484 yards; 3 TDs; INT; 2 sacks; 154.73 pass efficiency; 28 offensive points
Stroud nearly set a Buckeye record for passing yards, but he melted down during crunch time. During the first 53 minutes of the game, Stroud accounted for 454 total yards on 49 plays (9.3 yards per play) and 28 points. During the final seven minutes of the game, with Ohio State trailing by a touchdown, Stroud accounted for 27 total yards on 10 plays (2.7 yards per play) and 0 points, with 2 sacks, an interception, and a pass efficiency of 74.35. Ohio State loses, 35-28.
Tulsa: 15 for 25 (.600); 185 yards; TD; INT; 2 sacks; 127.36 pass efficiency; 34 offensive points
Ohio State needed a near-record performance from TreVeyon Henderson (277 rush yards; 3 TDs) and a pick six from Cameron Martinez to close out the game by the score of 41-20. Stroud's worst performance against the only non-Power5 team that he faced, allegedly the result of a shoulder injury. Stroud would sit the following week against MAC cellar dweller Akron, then have three outstanding games in a row against Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana.
Penn State: 22 for 34 (.647); 305 yards; TD; 0 INT; 0 sacks; 149.76 pass efficiency; 26 offensive points
Stroud had a pretty good game against a pretty good team playing near peak efficiency. The game could've been a blowout but for red zone woes (6 trips resulting in one TD, four FG, and a turnover on downs), most of which cannot be blamed on Stroud (but see his errant pass to a wide open Chris Olave on 4th-and-goal). During the 4th quarter, Stroud was an efficient game manager, completing 3 of 4 passes for 36 yards (including an absolute NFL throw for 30 yards to Jeremy Ruckert) and leading the team on a pair of field goal drives that iced the game, 33-24.
Nebraska: 36 for 54 (.667); 405 yards; 2 TD; 2 INT; 2 sacks; 134.48 pass efficiency; 26 offensive points
A real head-scratcher. After a Penn State game where Stroud made some brilliant plays and did just enough to ice the game in the 4th quarter, he nearly laid an egg against a tough but under-manned Nebraska squad. Take out a 75-yard TD pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a short throw that JSN turned into a highlight reel play, and Stroud's pass efficiency drops to 123.25. The biggest take away play came late in the 4th quarter: Leading by six points, Stroud went back to pass, panicked, retreated, was sacked for an 11-yard loss, and fumbled the ball. Fortunately, Ohio State recovered and kicked the clinching field goal with 1:29 left on the clock, but that one play was Stroud's worst moment under pressure and it nearly cost Ohio State the game. Nebraska did not recover that fumble because they have been jinxed all season; don't expect such luck against Michigan.
After the near-debacle at Nebraska, Stroud rebounded to have his two best games against Purdue (.816 completion percentage; 5 touchdowns; 204.80 pass efficiency) and Michigan State (.914 completion percentage; 6 touchdowns; 251.68 pass efficiency).
I'm still somewhat of a Stroud doubter, because I have seen enough inefficient play (and as recently as three weeks ago) to make me question whether he can be The Man in the big games, especially in the fourth quarter of the big games. Michigan is the biggest game so far. This Game will make or break Stroud - will he be Heisman or Freshman?