• Follow us on Twitter @buckeyeplanet and @bp_recruiting, like us on Facebook! Enjoy a post or article, recommend it to others! BP is only as strong as its community, and we only promote by word of mouth, so share away!
  • Consider registering! Fewer and higher quality ads, no emails you don't want, access to all the forums, download game torrents, private messages, polls, Sportsbook, etc. Even if you just want to lurk, there are a lot of good reasons to register!

Game Thread THE GAME: #1 Ohio State 42, #2 Michigan 39 (11/18/06)

Jump to latest Follow Reply
Sort by date Sort by votes
hell yea

I like to peep in the windows at the Nursing Home. I love Granny porn.

I also enjoy living in Henrico, Va and attending high school there. I would hate for this site to have to contact my mommy because I have continued to troll.

Maybe my friends who attend the same school and post on this site can talk some sense into me.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Upvote 0
lvbuckeye;647498; said:
right now, the straight line prediction of factoring each teams' average score on O with what the opponent gives up on D, the predicted score is Ohio State 24, M 18, which is fairly close, but if you start looking at point differentials and what each team has limited their opponents to relative to what their opponents average, a VERY different picture begins to take shape:​



UM Season: opponents average 25.35 PPG and 27.22 PPG with M factored out. M hold's opponents to an average of 13.75 PPG FEWER than they score and 15.62 PPG fewer with M factored out.


Buckeyes Season: opponents average 25.72 PPG, and 28 PPG with tOSU factored out. Ohio State holds their opponents to an average of 18.43 PPG FEWER than they score, and 20.7 PPG fewer with tOSU factored out.


based on relative production differentials, the prediction is: Ohio State: 21, M 9.


now i understand that the loss of Manningham has limited what M can do offensively, and Texas is REALLY helping the numbers, considering they are averaging 39.6 PPG and 43.6 with Ohio State factored out, but this analysis has left me feeling quite a bit more comfortable about The Game.

edit: i don't want to get anyone too excited, but i was just made aware of the fact that since MM has gone down, M is averaging 18 points per game... could The Game really have the potential to be that one sided? three weeks 'til we find out... :biggrin:
Click to expand...

My simpler way of figuring the same data - comparing PF and PA and averaging them - shows us to be ten points better than scUM, and has for a f3ew weeks in a row now.
Just taking Big 10 play - scUM has 140 PF and 59 PA after 6 games. They don't play Big10 opponent this week and we do, so let's say we beat Ill 45-3, which is reasonable based on our last few games, that would give us 237 PF and 36 PA after 6 games.
scUM averages 23.3 PF and 10 PA, we average 39.5 PF and 6 PA (much more dominant, wouldn't you say?)
Averaging their PF with our PA, they would score 15 points.
Averaging our PF with their PA we would score 25 points.

You get 21-9 (12 point spread) and I get 25-15 (10 point spread)
Plus we are at home - so we should win more comfortably than most might think.

I agree that w/out Manningham, if we hold them to 20 points below their average, like we usually do to other teams, they are in for a world of hurt.
 
Upvote 0
vick&henne4life;647612; said:
I like to peep in the windows at the Nursing Home. I love Granny porn.

I also enjoy living in Henrico, Va and attending high school there. I would hate for this site to have to contact my mommy because I have continued to troll.

Maybe my friends who attend the same school and post on this site can talk some sense into me.
Click to expand...

:slappy:

C'mon guys, can the mods atleast put the original message in the reference locker or something? I hate missing out on the fun...
 
Upvote 0
Game 12: Loser goes where?

If I'm correct and OSU and UM meet undefeated and Wisconsin also wins out, If OSU wins Michigan does not go to the Rose bowl, Wisconsin does. Michigan falls to a non-BCS bowl unless picked as an at large.
 
Upvote 0
Lynn Brant;647791; said:
If I'm correct and OSU and UM meet undefeated and Wisconsin also wins out, If OSU wins Michigan does not go to the Rose bowl, Wisconsin does. Michigan falls to a non-BCS bowl unless picked as an at large.
Click to expand...

Wrong. Michigan goes because they beat Wisconsin head-to-head...
 
Upvote 0
MililaniBuckeye;647811; said:
Wrong. Michigan goes because they beat Wisconsin head-to-head...
Click to expand...

I believe that using the scenario stated above (Lynn Brant), the Rose Bowl loses their Big Ten automatic bid, because Ohio State was the Big Ten's automatic bid. The Rose Bowl then gets to choose an at-large team. Being the Rose Bowl, they will most likely choose a Big Ten team. They like the tradition of Big Ten vs. Pac-10. And, they would also most likely choose Michigan over Wisconsin because of the head-to-head matchup.

But I don't believe that Michigan is guaranteed a BCS bowl game unless they are in the top 4.
 
Upvote 0
R0CK3TM4NN;647649; said:
'mon guys, can the mods atleast put the original message in the reference locker or something? I hate missing out on the fun...
Click to expand...
You didn't miss much... just an obligatory 'you guys suck' and little else. Weakest flame in some time.
 
Upvote 0
Zurp;647871; said:
I believe that using the scenario stated above (Lynn Brant), the Rose Bowl loses their Big Ten automatic bid, because Ohio State was the Big Ten's automatic bid. The Rose Bowl then gets to choose an at-large team. Being the Rose Bowl, they will most likely choose a Big Ten team. They like the tradition of Big Ten vs. Pac-10. And, they would also most likely choose Michigan over Wisconsin because of the head-to-head matchup.

But I don't believe that Michigan is guaranteed a BCS bowl game unless they are in the top 4.
Click to expand...

This is essentially correct. However, if Michigan were BCS #4, and BCS #3 was also from the same conference as a team that's BCS #1 or #2, only the #3 team would get an automatic bid.

I'm going to need another recording for that one over the next month. :wink2:

Here's an overview of the BCS selection process for this season:

There are 10 BCS spots this year. Since there's no way a team from outside the 6 'BCS conferences' will be #1 or #2 this year, two bids are for Glendale on January 8th, and 4 more bids are taken by the other 4 BCS conference champions. (This could be 5 more bids, it tOSU/TSUN end up #1 and #2 in the BCS).

That leaves 3 or 4 bids. The next teams considered are those from the other 5 conferences. Only Boise State has a realistic chance to be in the BCS top-12 (or in the top-16 and ahead of one of the 6 BCS conference champions; this is very possible with the ACC champ, or if Texas is upset in their CCG). Note - even if more than 1 non-BCS conference school meets these criteria, only 1 will be given an automatic bid.

That leaves 2 to 4 bids. Next is the Notre Dame provision. If ND is in the top 8, they get an automatic spot. Note that they don't receive a full bowl payout any longer; if ND is in a BCS bowl, they receive the same BCS money as a second team from a BCS conference (close to $5 million, rather than $15-$17 million). That's new this year, and often not reported accurately.

That leaves 1 to 4 bids. If the #3 team is from a BCS conference but not that conference's champion, they get an automatic bid as long as the conference doesn't already have two teams qualified. If the #3 team doesn't grab an automatic bid under this provision, the #4 team is then considered under the same guidelines.

That leaves 0 to 4 bids. These are considered 'At large' bids, and can be any team with at least 9 wins in the BCS top 14, as long as they are not under NCAA sanctions which would prevent a bowl appearance. For marketing reasons, if Notre Dame is in the top 14, but not the top-8, they will almost always be selected for an at large bid over anyone else.

Here is the link to the full BCS selection process:

bcsfootball.org
 
Upvote 0
BB73;647952; said:
This is essentially correct. However, if Michigan were BCS #4, and BCS #3 was also from the same conference as a team that's BCS #1 or #2, only the #3 team would get an automatic bid.
Click to expand...

Good point. I guess it's possible for Wisconsin to move up to #3, and Michigan to #4 in the BCS. In that case, Lynn Brant is right that Wisconsin would get a BCS Bowl, instead of Michigan.

But my point was that whatever bowl game it is, it doesn't have to be the Rose Bowl, if I understand it all correctly. The Rose Bowl gets first pick of at-large teams, since they lose their Big Ten Champion spot (#1 BCS). They may choose anyone who isn't already attached to a bowl, and another bowl game can pick Michigan (or Wisconsin, etc.) However, since the Rose Bowl likes the traditional Big Ten, Pac-10 matchup, I believe that they will choose Michigan (or Wisconsin, etc.).

Let me know if I'm wrong on that one.

Edit: now that I think of it, you're also saying that maybe Florida is #2, and Auburn is #3, and Michigan is #4. In that case, maybe Michigan doesn't get an automatic bid? I thought that they still do get an automatic bid. But maybe not.
 
Upvote 0
Zurp;647990; said:
Good point. I guess it's possible for Wisconsin to move up to #3, and Michigan to #4 in the BCS. In that case, Lynn Brant is right that Wisconsin would get a BCS Bowl, instead of Michigan.

But my point was that whatever bowl game it is, it doesn't have to be the Rose Bowl, if I understand it all correctly. The Rose Bowl gets first pick of at-large teams, since they lose their Big Ten Champion spot (#1 BCS). They may choose anyone who isn't already attached to a bowl, and another bowl game can pick Michigan (or Wisconsin, etc.) However, since the Rose Bowl likes the traditional Big Ten, Pac-10 matchup, I believe that they will choose Michigan (or Wisconsin, etc.).

Let me know if I'm wrong on that one.

Edit: now that I think of it, you're also saying that maybe Florida is #2, and Auburn is #3, and Michigan is #4. In that case, maybe Michigan doesn't get an automatic bid? I thought that they still do get an automatic bid. But maybe not.
Click to expand...

The Florida #2, Auburn #3, TSUN #4 scenario is what I was thinkiing of. In that case, they get no automatic bid. I posted a sticky thread about the BCS selection process which will hopefully be a reference tool for the next few weeks.

If tOSU is BCS #1, the Rose does get first choice, and they would likely take TSUN. They're not allowed to select somebody that is a conference champion that's tied to another bowl (like the SEC, ACC, and Big-12 champions). But the Rose Bowl could select Notre Dame instead of TSUN if they choose to further weaken their own traditions. I don't think they'd do that if TSUN has only a loss to tOSU, but the rules don't prevent it as long as ND in in the top-14 of the BCS, and therefore eligible. If ND is top-8, they get an automatic bid.
 
Upvote 0
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top