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Game Thread Sugar Bowl: tOSU vs Arkansas, Tue, Jan 4th, 8:30 ET ESPN

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Hogtropolis said:
Ok. That is a little bit better. I still think the Hogs score more than that (maybe not much more), but I think they'll end up with a higher total than 24.
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I would say 24 would be my predictive median for Arkansas. I could see it going between 17-31 for the Arkansas offense. I think I'd expect Ohio State's offense to be between 21-38, with right around 30 being my current "go-to" number. Obviously, I think Ohio State will win. That being said, its really not hard to fathom those scores being reversed.

Currently I'd anticipate probably 1- Ryan Mallett interception from underneath linebackers or linemen dropping back into coverage (me-thinks Ross Homan gets an interception), 1- pressure interception (Chekwa has a knack for quickly looking back in those situations), and 1- combination of a forced fumble or a 3rd interception (I think John Simon can disrupt a hand-off or hit Davis before he's got it secure). I think Pryor will probably throw 1- interception in the 2nd quarter (seems to be a trend, Tressel will get comfortable with Pryor passing it all over the place, we'll get inside the 30, and boom! Interception). :biggrin: But I don't expect a fumble from Ohio State to happen unless its a strip-sack.
 
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woopiginaustin;1828959; said:
I'll start by giving the obligatory "I have nothing but respect for your program" line. I do. Realistically speaking, we'll never catch up to the hardware OSU has.

With that out of the way, I'm going to post the thoughts of a fellow Hog since they mirror mine and he has already done the work.........


The storyline leading up to this game is obviously going to be Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas offense vs. The mighty "D" of Ohio St. OSU's defense ranks 3rd in the country in scoring defense, giving up an average of 13.3 pts per game, while Arkansas's scoring offense ranks 16th in the country, averaging 37.3 pts per game. For this I'm only using scoring off. and def. because I'm lazy and don't want to look up anything else.

OSU's opponents had a combined record of 72-72
They played one team (Wisconsin) that ranked in the top 20 nationally in scoring offense and gave up 31 in that loss.
The avg scoring off. rank of their twelve opponents was 63rd.
They only played two team with at least 8 wins (Wisconsin 11-1 & Ohio U 8-4), they were 1-1.
They beat Iowa 20-17 a week before Iowa lost to a 2-9 Minnesota team.

Arkansas's opponents had a combined record of 86-59
We played two teams in the top 20 nationally in scoring defense (Bama, LSU), but four in the top 30 (A&M, MSU). We were 3-1 in those games and scored no less than 21.
The avg scoring def. rank of our eleven D1 opponents was 52nd.
We played six teams with at least 8 wins (Bama 9-3, A&M 9-3, AU 13-0, SC 9-4, MSU 8-4, LSU 10-2), we were 6-2.
In our last seven games we never scored less than 31 pts.

Obviously, the point here is that OSU built up that defensive ranking against a very soft schedule and when they were tested by a real offense, they got beat up. On the other hand, our offense was continually tested by good defenses and our low point output was 21....and the Bama game was obviously before we discovered our ground game.

http://woopig.net/board/index.php/topic,73919.0.html
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Another point.


Michigan is #22. The only reason they are no longer top 20 is because they scored SEVEN against us. Before that game their PPG were basically identical to yours.

Are we going to hold Ark to 7? Probably not.

Is that whole post pretty much irrelevant? Pretty much.

Edit: Further point: # or top 30 defenses for Mich. going into OSU game = 4 (Wisc., Conn, MSU, Iowa)
 
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osugrad21;1829014; said:
One poster with one arrogant post should not cause:

A) a blanket judgment over a fanbase
B) stooping to the same level of trash


Plenty of solid visitors so far...give the troll a second to hang himself and focus on the positive fans with the intelligent discussion.
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Agreed. Poke a stick at the absurdity if you must, but keep it focused on the exception to the rule.

With such sparse turnouts from Miami & USC, which resulted in OSU fans talking with themselves or mocking the small chunk of trolls, it is easy to forget how great the pre-game chatter was for LSU, Texas (x3) & Ok State.
 
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HogFan77;1828760; said:
Most people view Petrino as a pass-first coach who doesn't like to run all that much. In reality, he wants his offense to be balanced. His best offenses at Louisville were actually 55-60% run oriented. I remember his press conference when we hired him. The statement that jumped out to me was when he said: "I believe you have to be able to pass the ball when you want to, run the ball when you want to, and also be able to run the ball when you have to, and pass the ball when you have to".

At the start of this year we relied almost exclusively on the passing game. After the Auburn game Knile Davis stepped up big time at running back. He's put up incredible numbers since then and its really giving teams fits trying to slow us down.

In our 6 game winning streak we've averaged 42.5 points a game, 188 yards rushing(including sacks), and 310.5 yards passing per game. We've also had more rushing attempts than passing attempts in our past four games.

I don't know if you watched the LSU game or not, but in the fourth quarter we basically ran at will against their highly touted defense and crammed it down their throat on a 13 play, 88 yard drive that soaked up 6 minutes of the clock.

Petrino likes to strike early if he can, so he will usually throw out some plays at the beginning of the game that he thinks will fool the opposing defense, if that doesn't work then he'll start establishing the run more and try to develop play action, screen passes, whatever will work. One major improvement in Mallett is that he has gotten much better at taking what the defense gives him. Last year he seemed to rely a lot more on his cannon arm and striking deep. He's much more content to hit his receivers or tight end on quick slants or routes over the middle. Watch out for Cobi Hamilton, he's stepped up quite well to replace Greg Childs.

Its a very balanced offense, even against great defenses this year the only way we've been slowed down on O is by shooting ourselves in the foot with penalties or mental mistakes causing turnovers. Most opposing coordinators try to get pressure early on Mallett to rattle him, he's gotten a lot better at keeping his emotions in check and handling it.

I doubt we've seen a defense as good as Ohio States so I look forward to this match up of strength vs strength!
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Thank you for the information. What kind of sets do you guys like to run?
 
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In this case, I'm not making a prediction, I'm just pointing out that 24 or more offensive points would be a huge statistical outlier for the OSU defense. I also understand that 24 is the low-water mark for the Arkansas offense (aTm... though I didn't check to see if they scored with defense or ST in the other games)...

............................................Rush D.......... Pass D.......... Pass Efficiency D.......... Scoring D .......... Total D

Tennessee Tech (IAA rank): .......110 .......... 58 .......... 31 .......... 98 .......... 104
La. Monroe: ............................. 71 .......... 64 .......... 58 .......... 97 .......... 66
Georgia: .................................. 59 .......... 19 .......... 59 .......... 49 .......... 30
'Bama: .................................... 22 .......... 12 .......... 7 .......... 5 .......... 6
aTm: ...................................... 15 .......... 94 .......... 27 .......... 27 .......... 51
Auburn: .................................. 11 .......... 105 .......... 75 .......... 54 .......... 54
Runnin' Ackbars: ....................... 65 .......... 99 .......... 109 .......... 108 .......... 80
Vandy: ................................... 98 .......... 77 .......... 95 .......... 93 .......... 94
South Carolina: ......................... 9 .......... 107 .......... 93 .......... 36 .......... 52
UTEP: ..................................... 90 .......... 72 .......... 60 .......... 58 .......... 86
Miss. St.: ................................ 20 .......... 89 .......... 50 .......... 27 .......... 53
LSU: ...................................... 38 .......... 10 .......... 20 .......... 9 .......... 8

Putting 31 on LSU is pretty impressive, but I'm astounded by the craptitude that the Arkansas offense faced across the line this year, esp. against the pass... tOSU will be, by far, the best D they have faced all year...
 
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jwinslow;1829006; said:
Two reasons I disagree with the higher point totals:

1) SEC football employs a lot more man defense. OSU plays both, but employs more zone looks. Mallett will not have as many opportunities for his frequent full-field strikes.
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I will say that Mallett is very good at picking apart a zone defense. His strong arm allows him to throw it right between two defenders. I have seen this countless times this year. Defenders think they are in position and then all the sudden, they can't get there in time because of the velocity of the ball.

I feel that our run defense is adequate. Not great, but good enough. I'll go back to what I have been saying. Pryor is going to be the difference maker. If he has a good to great game, I don't think Arkansas wins. If we can't contain him, I just don't see it being good for us. If 4 or 5 of his patented runs for 8+ yards on 3rd and long, it will be a long night for the Hogs.

Diego-Bucks;1829016; said:
I would say 24 would be my predictive median for Arkansas. I could see it going between 17-31 for the Arkansas offense. I think I'd expect Ohio State's offense to be between 21-38, with right around 30 being my current "go-to" number. Obviously, I think Ohio State will win. That being said, its really not hard to fathom those scores being reversed.

Currently I'd anticipate probably 1- Ryan Mallett interception from underneath linebackers or linemen dropping back into coverage (me-thinks Ross Homan gets an interception), 1- pressure interception (Chekwa has a knack for quickly looking back in those situations), and 1- combination of a forced fumble or a 3rd interception (I think John Simon can disrupt a hand-off or hit Davis before he's got it secure). I think Pryor will probably throw 1- interception in the 2nd quarter (seems to be a trend, Tressel will get comfortable with Pryor passing it all over the place, we'll get inside the 30, and boom! Interception). :biggrin: But I don't expect a fumble from Ohio State to happen unless its a strip-sack.
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I could see possibly 2 interceptions, but I don't see 3 happening. I think if Arkansas has 3 turnovers we'll lose. I think they can manage with 2 if they force at least 1.
 
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I'm really looking forward to this game, as I am excited for the Razorbacks to be playing a school with as much tradition as tOSU. I have a lot of respect for your program. I had never spent much time in Ohio (except at airports) until this summer when I drove the length of the state on the way from Detroit back to Arkansas. Boy, a big part of Ohio looks just like a big part of Arkansas!

I am worried about the Hog's D containing Pryor if he decides to run. We had difficulty with running QBs this season (Newton of Auburn; Relf of Misstake). On the other side of the ball, what are your thoughts on Mallett and the receiving corps (Williams, Adams, Childs, Hamilton, Wright, Gragg) ability to move the ball down the field?
 
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[quote='BusNative;182903;8]In this case, I'm not making a prediction, I'm just pointing out that 24 or more offensive points would be a huge statistical outlier for the OSU defense. I also understand that 24 is the low-water mark for the Arkansas offense (aTm... though I didn't check to see if they scored with defense or ST in the other games)...

............................................Rush D???. Pass D???. Pass Efficiency D???. Scoring D ???. Total D

Tennessee Tech (IAA rank): ......110 ???. 58 ???. 31 ???. 98 ???. 104
La. Monroe: ............................. 71 ???. 64 ???. 58 ???. 97 ???. 66
Georgia: ................................. 59 ???. 19 ???. 59 ???. 49 ???. 30
?Bama: ................................... 22 ???. 12 ???. 7 ???. 5 ???. 6
aTm: ..................................... 15 ???. 94 ???. 27 ???. 27 ???. 51
Auburn: ................................. 11 ???. 105 ???. 75 ???. 54 ???. 54
Runnin? Ackbars: ...................... 65???. 99 ???. 109 ???. 108 ???. 80
Vandy: .................................. 98 ???. 77 ???. 95 ???. 93 ???. 94
South Carolina: ........................ 9 ???. 107 ???.93 ???. 36 ???. 52
UTEP: .................................... 90 ???. 72 ???. 60 ???. 58 ???. 86
Miss. St.: ............................... 20 ???. 89 ???. 50 ???. 27???. 53
LSU: ..................................... 38 ???. 10 ???. 20 ???. 9 ???. 8

Putting 31 on LSU is pretty impressive, but I'm astounded by the craptitude that the Arkansas offense faced across the line this year, esp. against the pass... tOSU will be, by far, the best D they have faced all year...[/quote]
Facing the #10 and #12 ranked teams against the pass is craptitude? I know you gave us props against LSU, but Bama's no slouch. They're not as good as last year, but they're still good. And we would have scored more on them if had an established running back which we have now. Georgia at #19 isn't horrible either. When you're talking about top defenses across the nation, it's hard to compare them since a lot haven't played the same competition. To me it's hard to compare LSU and OSU's defense to each other since they didn't play any of the same competition but are still ranked close together.
 
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Hogtropolis;1829039; said:
I will say that Mallett is very good at picking apart a zone defense. His strong arm allows him to throw it right between two defenders. I have seen this countless times this year. Defenders think they are in position and then all the sudden, they can't get there in time because of the velocity of the ball.

I feel that our run defense is adequate. Not great, but good enough. I'll go back to what I have been saying. Pryor is going to be the difference maker. If he has a good to great game, I don't think Arkansas wins. If we can't contain him, I just don't see it being good for us. If 4 or 5 of his patented runs for 8+ yards on 3rd and long, it will be a long night for the Hogs.

I could see possibly 2 interceptions, but I don't see 3 happening. I think if Arkansas has 3 turnovers we'll lose. I think they can manage with 2 if they force at least 1.
Click to expand...

Those deep throws down the sideline, one of the 80-yarders against LSU was an example, are certainly something for the Buckeye secondary to be concerned about.
 
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Hey guys, another Arkansas fan here. I am very pumped about this match up to say the least! I think it will be an awesome game but I am worried about one thing... Pryor. I see him as a mini cam newton. Any hog fan will tell you that mobile QBs have given us fits ALL season long. I can't begin to tell you how many times we've had a team into a 3rd and long and their QB runs for a first down. As for all the stats... That is all out the window now. Each team has a month to prepare so no team is going to be hot. It's all about who can shake off the rust the quickest to execute their game plan.

I have a couple questions also! How well does your Greek life travel? I know at least 80 guys in my fraternity are making the trip as is every other one of our fraternities. I know your fans travel VERY well so I'm sure your Greeks do too.

I've expressed my concern on what scares me out OSU. So what scares you about our team?
 
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