Game Thread Sugar Bowl: tOSU vs Arkansas, Tue, Jan 4th, 8:30 ET ESPN

[SloopyHangOn]

I don't think stating that the "no one has scored more than x points on us since x game" has any more validity as saying "tOSU hasn't won a bowl game over the SEC" does as a predictor of what is likely to happen in an Arkansas vs. Ohio State matchup.

Apples to Oranges.

When specifically talking about PPG and defense in the Tressel era, there are far fewer variables that go into the equation than when talking about wins and losses versus the SEC. PPG and defensive numbers are based upon consistent, game-by-game, statistics whereas wins and losses against the SEC are based upon singular, specific results.

There are far more common denominators in the PPG comments than there are in the 0-9 v. SEC ones. That, IMO, results in a much more valid argument.

 

[fanaticbuckeye]

I will bet you that the actual kickoff is nowhere near 7:30pm. I work until 7:30...that's why I am asking.

BTW...Gene Smith just confirmed what we all unofficially knew, at the OSU appriciate banquet at the Union, that Ohio State is headed to the Sugar Bowl.

Sugar Bowl's site says 7:30 EST start. I thought weekday BCS games started at like 8:15 kick

 

[muffler dragon]

Looking forward to this game!

Are the Hogs looking forward to anyone coming back from injuries?

 

[MaxBuck]

I don't think stating that the "no one has scored more than x points on us since x game" has any more validity as saying "tOSU hasn't won a bowl game over the SEC" does as a predictor of what is likely to happen in an Arkansas vs. Ohio State matchup.

It's hard to see how this is true. The first is a comment on how 12 separate opponents (many of whom had great confidence in their offense) actually performed against this specific team. The second hearkens back to history, and neither Darren McFadden nor Andy Katzenmoyer is scheduled to play in this one.

I'll acknowledge that Arkansas probably has the best offense we've faced this season, so for us to necessarily expect to hold you to less than 20 points is unreasonable.

 

[Meyer]

GO BUCKS (TP voice).

 

[Diego-Bucks]

I don't think stating that the "no one has scored more than x points on us since x game" has any more validity as saying "tOSU hasn't won a bowl game over the SEC" does as a predictor of what is likely to happen in an Arkansas vs. Ohio State matchup.

I'm not sure its a question of validity. One of your claims is an arbitrary distinction between bowl-game competitors; whether Ohio State plays Texas is not really different from if Ohio State plays Alabama. They are big-time bowl opponents that may or may not happen to play in a specific conference. A conference is united financially, but they are certainly not the same teams and have many different aspects to their various game-plans. We are 0-9 against the SEC, but that doesn't in and of itself tell a complete story. If you wanted to really get gritty, you would try to look at Jim Tressel and the recent Buckeye teams' record against teams that would employ similar schemes and personnel to the Razorbacks.

In this instance, while 9 games is a lot in college football, we are still well outside statistical significance and are more in the realm of simple random chance. Ohio State plays in lots of bowl games, ergot Ohio State wins a lot of bowl games. They also lose a lot of bowl games. Due to contracts and bowl tie-ins, they are sometimes faced up against great SEC teams.

Meanwhile, the other claim you make is one of the past trends in Ohio State's defensive statistics. Again, this is looking at the past results to look forward into the future (aka, statistics). The issue here is that we have an immensely larger sampling database. Now we are looking at dozens or hundreds of games and the trends can begin to be claimed as statistically significant. To predict that Arkansas will be the anomaly in scoring output is difficult to accept without an immense look into the specific game match-ups. Has tOSU given up 30+ points in a game? Of course. But which teams did this occur against? What schemes did they run? What was the turnover ratio? How was the LOS utilized by either team (aka. Florida, LSU, USC and Wisconsin have all had dominant defensive line play)?

The way I look at it is this: how quickly does Arkansas score? How often may they turn it over? How much clock time will Ohio State take up with Tressel-ball? Does Arkansas simply have enough time or possessions to mount 4-5 TD drives? Over many many games, the answer is not-very likely.

Another simple issue is: I really am not counting the more anomalous scoring plays of defensive/special teams touchdowns. The argument, so far, has involved the likelihood of the Arkansas Offense scoring 28+ points against Ohio State's defense. I am not sure anyone could predict these more anomalous scoring plays.

That is NOT to say that I don't think Arkansas can win this game. I think the answer to that is: it is quite possible.

 

[Saw31]

This game will be won the same way all games are won. Who controls the line of scrimmage and who makes less mistakes.

 

[SadSouthernBuck]

Sugar Bowl's site says 7:30 EST start. I thought weekday BCS games started at like 8:15 kick

N.O. is in the central time zone so kickoff would be 8:30 EST.

 

[SmoovP]

There are far more common denominators in the PPG comments than there are in the 0-9 v. SEC ones. That, IMO, results in a much more valid argument.

I disagree with that.

Too many variables. Different teams, different personnel, different years, different styles of play, different conferences, different everything really.

When I see things like this thrown out:

2006, Michigan: scored 39 in a loss; at the time, Michigan was undefeated and ranked #2; they finished #8 with an 11-2 record
2006, Florida: scored 41 in a win; won national championship, 13-1 record
2007, LSU: scored 38 in a win; won national championship, 12-2 record
2008, Southern Cal: scored 35 in a win; finished season ranked #3 with a 12-1 record
2010, Wisconsin: scored 31 in a win; currently ranked #4 with an 11-1 record

Specifically, stats from 2008 and beyond, I don't pay them much attention as they have no relevance on the game at hand.

I still say that as impressive as your teams defensive statistics are, Strength of Schedule is the big equalizer here.

Meaning, this year of course.

 

[JXC]

If you are the Sugar Bowl...what stops you from selected LSU? Wouldn't that be better for them money wise?

 

[SadSouthernBuck]

If you are the Sugar Bowl...what stops you from selected LSU? Wouldn't that be better for them money wise?

The Sugar Bowl wants fans that will spend a few days in N.O. and stay in hotels, eat out, etc. That = $ for the local economy. Tons of LSU fans would just drive down the day of the game.

 

[Hogtropolis]

You can track it on your schedule on ESPN.com. I did Ohio State's defense for you. You're going to have to take the time to track the Arkansas offense.

Ohio State defense

plays of 20-29 yards 20 in 12 games
plays of 30-39 yards 7 (Minnesota had 4 of the 7, go figure)
plays of 40-42 yards 2 (1 was a rush)
plays over 42 yards Zero

There you have it. How about your defense? How do they compare?

Arkansas defense this year as a comparison.

20-29 yards 20 plays
30-39 yards 8 plays
40-49 yards 5 plays
50-59 yards 5 plays
60-69 yards 2 plays
over 69 yards Zero plays

Please note that the ULM game did not hvae a play by play tracker listed so it is not included.

I went to our website to get the info for the ULM game. We gave up 1 passing play of 25 yards during that game.

My point though wasn't to compare OSU's defense to Arkansas's defense, it was to compare OSU's defense to Arkansas's offense.

Here's the breakdown of what Arkansas did on offense. Maybe you can give us OSU's. I don't have time to. I didn't really have time to do this, but I was interested to see for myself, so I made the time.

Passing:
20-29: 23 plays
30-39: 18 plays
40-49: 7 plays
50-59: 4 plays
60-69: 0 plays
70-79: 1 play
80-89: 4 plays
over 89 yards: 0

Rushing:
20-29: 8 plays
30-39: 2 plays
40-49: 2 plays
50-59: 0 plays
60-69: 1 plays
70-79: 1 play
over 79 yards: 0

Total:
20-29: 31 plays
30-39: 20 plays
40-49: 9 plays
50-59: 4 plays
60-69: 1 plays
70-79: 2 play
80-89: 4 plays
over 89 yards: 0

For a grand total of 71 total plays of 20+ yards. That's an average of almost 6 plays per game over 20+ yards. I think it's safe to say that Arkansas will have their fair share of big plays, it's whether or not OSU will be able to come up with the stops at crucial points in the game and also be able to put up enough of their own big plays to stay in the game. I think OSU will definitely be able score. I think it should be an exciting game with both teams scoring in the upper 20's or higher.

 

[Bill Lucas]

One has 71 and one has given up 29. Looks to me like the game may hinge on your receivers getting over the top on the Ohio State DBs. It hasn't happened once this season so I'll side with the good guys. If the vertical passing game is shut down it might be a long night for Hog nation.

 

[Hogtropolis]

The way I look at it is this: how quickly does Arkansas score? How often may they turn it over? How much clock time will Ohio State take up with Tressel-ball? Does Arkansas simply have enough time or possessions to mount 4-5 TD drives? Over many many games, the answer is not-very likely.

Arkansas can score in under 5 plays and have done so many times this season. Also, since the emergence of Davis, we can run clock when needed and have a 15+ play drive.

Turnovers have not been a huge problem this year, but they have definitely not been something to completely ignore. I wouldn't been surprised to see 1 or 2 turnovers by Arkansas in the game, but I would be surprised to see more than that. At the same time, I would expect Arkansas to force at least 1 turnover.

I believe that if Arkansas is able to do what it likes to do (jump out front early), Tressel will have pressure on him to score and not be able to run as much clock as he would like, thus giving Arkansas more possessions and more opportunities to score.

Again, I expect it to be a competitive game. I expect Arkansas to win, but will not be the least bit surprised if they lose, but I will be surprised if we are shut down offensively. I just don't see that happening.

By the way, as many of our fans have already stated, I'm very excited to be playing such a storied program as OSU. It will be a fun game.

 

[Hogtropolis]

One has 71 and one has given up 29. Looks to me like the game may hinge on your receivers getting over the top on the Ohio State DBs. It hasn't happened once this season so I'll side with the good guys. If the vertical passing game is shut down it might be a long night for Hog nation.

And if it's not, it might be a long night for Buckeye nation.

After watching us play all season, there hasn't been one team (not even Bama or LSU) that has been able to keep the big plays from happening against Arkansas. I don't expect OSU to be the first to stop our vertical passing attack.

I'm not worried about scoring on OSU or anyone for that matter (and won't ever be as long as Petrino is our coach) but what I am worried about is how Arkansas will do against Pryor. That is what could make Arkansas's night a long night.