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Game Thread Sugar Bowl: tOSU vs Arkansas, Tue, Jan 4th, 8:30 ET ESPN

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FWIW....OSU has only given up 6 pass plays of 30+ yards this season....and 5 of them were to EMU (3!?!) and Minnesota (2). The other was the pass to the tight end late in the Wisky (Fuck Bucky!) game.

Of course, I posted a similar stat last year before the game against Iowa (only 3 30+yards passes allowed prior to that game) and Iowa's backup QB went out and hit on a 30+ and a 50+ yard pass, so it means less than nothing.

OSU's defense very much revolves around not allowing big plays, much like OSU's offense revolves around big plays. OSU will try to force the opponent to complete a 10-12-15 play drive if they want to score a touchdown. The teams that have had success are the ones that consistently gain positive yards and put together lengthy drives. (See: Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU (first half), LSU/Illinois 2007, Florida 2006.
 
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BrutusBuckeyeAZ;1825104; said:
I just got off the phone with my father-in law, who lives in Baton Rouge, and he informed me that he is receiving 4 free tickets to the Sugar Bowl. Since we are heading south for Christmas and New Years, he wanted to know if i wanted the tickets. He didn't realize that OSU is slated to be there! I think I might have scared him when i screamed like a little girl!:!
I hope to see yall in the game. I think it would be great to see the firtst time these two teams meet! And of course in my biased opinion, an good ole Buckeye win! :osu:
I'm still deciding whether or not to ding you out of jealousy, or to rep you for pure luck.
 
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The offensive comparision....

Ohio State faced on average the 63rd best defense every week. During that time the offense scored 12.1 points more than the opponent's defensive average. Wisconsin was the only team that held OSU below it average by 2.5 points.

Arkansas faced the 54th ranked defense every week. They on average scored 12.6 more points than their opponents usually gave up. LA-Monroe was the only team to keep them below their average.

On paper this looks like a push, however on closer examination it looks to me like a plus for Arkansas. Against tougher defenses (Top 40) Arkansas was at or exceeded the opponent's typical defensive scoring average by more than the above stated 12.6 points (actually closer to 15).

OSU's offense still scored more than the opponent's usually gave up but it was around 9 points versus or season average of 12. Perhaps the Hog's "O" plays up to their competition??
 
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good stuff

Wingate1217;1825114; said:
The offensive comparision....

Ohio State faced on average the 63rd best defense every week. During that time the offense scored 12.1 points more than the opponent's defensive average. Wisconsin was the only team that held OSU below it average by 2.5 points.

Arkansas faced the 54th ranked defense every week. They on average scored 12.6 more points than their opponents usually gave up. LA-Monroe was the only team to keep them below their average.

On paper this looks like a push, however on closer examination it looks to me like a plus for Arkansas. Against tougher defenses (Top 40) Arkansas was at or exceeded the opponent's typical defensive scoring average by more than the above stated 12.6 points (actually closer to 15).

OSU's offense still scored more than the opponent's usually gave up but it was around 9 points versus or season average of 12. Perhaps the Hog's "O" plays up to their competition??

Both of your last comparison posts are interesting stuff.

My observation about the Petrino offense is that once we get a comfortable lead, Petrino starts teaching and running plays for 'practice'. He'll start tinkering, so to speak.

It can be frustrating at times, because you know if we wanted to, we could pretty much score at will, and it's led us to have games that are closer than they should have been.

We found out after the LSU game last week that they had seen something last year that they thought they could exploit. They designed a play, installed it during the spring, ran it during practice all season and then sprung it for the first time in the LSU game this year.

It went for a 39 yard TD and pretty much broke their backs.

From our ten wins, we really only had two tight games. Georgia and Mississippi State. We won @ Georgia on a last minute TD pass and it took two OTs to put down Mississippi State.

And now that I think about it, were it me, I'd look at the Mississippi State game as in indicator about how y'all might line up against Arkansas. Mississippi State is a real smash-mouth kind of team. Very physical line play on both sides of the ball, a very good run game with a tough running quarterback. He's not very good at passing, but they can run on anyone, and it took us two OTs to win it.

MissState is probably the closest team, stylewise, to what I'd expect out of Ohio State and is one of the reasons why, were I a betting man, that I'd be leaning toward tOSU.
 
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Telekinesis;1825162; said:
Welcome aboard, Hogs! Glad to have you guys here. Let's try to keep it classy and here's to a great bowl game! Cheers.

:drunks:
I think they are all gone after Saturday. :lol: Ole' Ball Coach = spoiler.

And the Buckeyes match up better with the Cocks than Arkansas, IMO, so that is a plus for tOSU.
 
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Gatorubet;1825170; said:
I think they are all gone after Saturday. :lol: Ole' Ball Coach = spoiler.

And the Buckeyes match up better with the Cocks than Arkansas, IMO, so that is a plus for tOSU.

I'm trying to be encouraging! :tongue2:

Besides, I just said here's to a great game, I never said which one. They can still stick around and watch if things don't go their way.
 
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Buckeye86;1824717; said:
Ohio State has given up 30+ points five times and are averaging giving up 13 points per game in the last five years combined

Oregon thought their offense would run wild last year as well, no matter how good the team, Ohio State has a way of sucking offense out of games, particularly in close games against good opponents
Arkansas fans, pay close attention to the above stat.

To amplify, the five teams that scored 30+ points on Ohio State were as follows:

2006, Michigan: scored 39 in a loss; at the time, Michigan was undefeated and ranked #2; they finished #8 with an 11-2 record
2006, Florida: scored 41 in a win; won national championship, 13-1 record
2007, LSU: scored 38 in a win; won national championship, 12-2 record
2008, Southern Cal: scored 35 in a win; finished season ranked #3 with a 12-1 record
2010, Wisconsin: scored 31 in a win; currently ranked #4 with an 11-1 record

In other words, on the rare occasions when Ohio State does give up 30+ points, it is to a truly elite team. Is Arkansas in that category? The Razorbacks are good, but I wouldn't put them in the elite category yet.

This season, the Ohio State has given up 20 touchdowns and 7 field goals, with 4 of those touchdowns being surrendered by the special teams. That means that the defense gave up only 23 scoring drives for a total of 132 points ... or 2 scoring drives and 11 points per game on average.

Note also that 3 of the scoring drives (2 FG, 1 TD) were short field (27 yards or less) after turnovers, and three other scores (2 TD, 1 FG) were in garbage time against the reserves. So, I could argue that Ohio State's first team defense has surrendered only 17 scoring drives for 102 points....

This season, Ohio State has the #2 total defense and #3 scoring defense in the nation. Arkansas has played two comparable defenses (by statistics) this season: Alabama (#7 total, #5 scoring, 14 ppg) and LSU (#9 total, #9 scoring, 18 ppg). Arkansas scored 20 against Alabama (and Mallett threw three interceptions, including two in the fourth quarter), and 31 against LSU (with 14 points coming on two 80-yard TD passes). So, Arkansas scored six more points than the average against Alabama, and 13 more points than the average against LSU. If Arkansas has a similar performance against Ohio State (11 ppg average), then Arkansas should score between 17 (11 + 6) and 24 points (11 + 13). But don't count on hitting a pair of 80-yard passes against this defense....

Reasons why Ohio State's defense has consistently ranked near the top of the NCAA (six-year average: #6 total defense, #4 scoring defense, 13 ppg):

1. Talent - 18 drafted players (5 first rounders), 10 All Americans, 3 major award winners over past six years; this year, five players made first team All Big Ten.

2. Coaching - co-defensive coordinator Luke Fickell was just named AFCA assistant coach of the year; defensive coordinator Jim Heacock was the 2007 Frank Broyles Award winner.

3. Ball security - Ohio State has forced 29 turnovers this year (#8 in country), and is #2 in turnover margin.

4. Ball control - Ohio State averages 32:45 in time of possession (#6 in country), meaning that Buckeye opponents get the ball for only 27:15 per game.

5. Eliminating big plays - On the season, the Ohio State defense has given up 17 playes between 20 and 29 yards; 7 plays between 30 and 39 yards; and 2 plays between 40 and 42 yards.

"Tresselball" - win time of possession, field position, and turnover margin; run the ball, run the ball, run the ball; and don't give up big plays. It ain't always pretty, but it works 82.7% of the time.
 
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EireHog;1824877; said:
I can understand where you're coming from, but I do believe you folks are pretty severely underestimating the Arkansas offense. In terms of being well rounded, it's probably one of the five best attacks at the collegiate level in the past 20 years. I'm saddened that Mallett will depart before we've seen him have a full year with the starting cast, because the scoring records set by 2008 Oklahoma would be imperiled.

Look no disrespect to Arkansas' offense but to call it one of the top 5 attacks of the last 20 years is a little over the top.

Anyway, Ohio State faced a team in January of 2003 that was definitely one of the top 5 attacks in the last 20 years and held them to 17 points in regulation and 24 points in 2OT. 2005 Texas and Vince Young? Scored 41 or more points against every team their schedule...except Ohio State who they struggled to put 25 against. 2009 Oregon? 37 or more points in their last 6 games until Ohio State held them to 17. 2008 Texas? Averaged 49 points a game including 45 against Oklahoma. Ohio State held them to 24. I could add more but I think you see the trend and why we are so skeptical that Arkansas will put 30+ or 35+ up against Ohio State. It's a rare occurence historically and many very good teams haven't gotten close.
 
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