Buckeye86;1824717; said:
Ohio State has given up 30+ points five times and are averaging giving up 13 points per game in the last five years combined
Oregon thought their offense would run wild last year as well, no matter how good the team, Ohio State has a way of sucking offense out of games, particularly in close games against good opponents
Arkansas fans, pay close attention to the above stat.
To amplify, the five teams that scored 30+ points on Ohio State were as follows:
2006, Michigan: scored 39 in a loss; at the time, Michigan was undefeated and ranked #2; they finished #8 with an 11-2 record
2006, Florida: scored 41 in a win; won national championship, 13-1 record
2007, LSU: scored 38 in a win; won national championship, 12-2 record
2008, Southern Cal: scored 35 in a win; finished season ranked #3 with a 12-1 record
2010, Wisconsin: scored 31 in a win; currently ranked #4 with an 11-1 record
In other words, on the rare occasions when Ohio State does give up 30+ points, it is to a truly elite team. Is Arkansas in that category? The Razorbacks are good, but I wouldn't put them in the elite category yet.
This season, the Ohio State has given up 20 touchdowns and 7 field goals, with 4 of those touchdowns being surrendered by the special teams. That means that the defense gave up only 23 scoring drives for a total of 132 points ... or 2 scoring drives and 11 points per game on average.
Note also that 3 of the scoring drives (2 FG, 1 TD) were short field (27 yards or less) after turnovers, and three other scores (2 TD, 1 FG) were in garbage time against the reserves. So, I could argue that Ohio State's first team defense has surrendered only 17 scoring drives for 102 points....
This season, Ohio State has the #2 total defense and #3 scoring defense in the nation. Arkansas has played two comparable defenses (by statistics) this season: Alabama (#7 total, #5 scoring, 14 ppg) and LSU (#9 total, #9 scoring, 18 ppg). Arkansas scored 20 against Alabama (and Mallett threw three interceptions, including two in the fourth quarter), and 31 against LSU (with 14 points coming on two 80-yard TD passes). So, Arkansas scored six more points than the average against Alabama, and 13 more points than the average against LSU. If Arkansas has a similar performance against Ohio State (11 ppg average), then Arkansas should score between 17 (11 + 6) and 24 points (11 + 13). But don't count on hitting a pair of 80-yard passes against this defense....
Reasons why Ohio State's defense has consistently ranked near the top of the NCAA (six-year average: #6 total defense, #4 scoring defense, 13 ppg):
1. Talent - 18 drafted players (5 first rounders), 10 All Americans, 3 major award winners over past six years; this year, five players made first team All Big Ten.
2. Coaching - co-defensive coordinator Luke Fickell was just named AFCA assistant coach of the year; defensive coordinator Jim Heacock was the 2007 Frank Broyles Award winner.
3. Ball security - Ohio State has forced 29 turnovers this year (#8 in country), and is #2 in turnover margin.
4. Ball control - Ohio State averages 32:45 in time of possession (#6 in country), meaning that Buckeye opponents get the ball for only 27:15 per game.
5. Eliminating big plays - On the season, the Ohio State defense has given up 17 playes between 20 and 29 yards; 7 plays between 30 and 39 yards; and 2 plays between 40 and 42 yards.
"Tresselball" - win time of possession, field position, and turnover margin; run the ball, run the ball, run the ball; and don't give up big plays. It ain't always pretty, but it works 82.7% of the time.