Sparty at tOSU, Nov 20th, 12 pm ET, ABC

[5 STAR U-G-A]

Worth taking into consideration, this team, dating back to the earliest of the JT era (almost 20 years now) has a history of close scores the weekend before The Game.

Interesting trend. I'm personally not betting on this game, so I'm not going to say it's a lock to anyone thinking about doing it, but my opinion on what I've seen from both teams (haven't seen every game of either team nor spent hours studying or breaking down film) is that Ohio State is more than capable of a win close to covering the spread, if not covering outright or easily, especially with the game at home.

As you've mentioned, this game historically had had close scores the weekend before the Game, but, and this is just my somewhat uninformed opinion, I think that the way that this Ohio State team is built as opposed to the power run attack of the Braxton/JT days is more liable to blow out opponents than the Braxton/JT Era (not that they didn't blow out opponents then, they did, I just think that this current team is better set up with a QB like Stroud and coaching Philosophy like Day's to do so).

 

[Greyshirt]

As far as betting. I am a season ticket holder at MSU and we have a group of about 20 of us who pick the MSU games each week against the spread. We all throw in a 20 and winner takes all at the end of the season. We are all 8-2 with MSU being 8-2 against the spread.....LOL. I am planning on taking OSU-20 and hopefully getting a game ahead and maybe winning that pot this season. MSU has played extremely well all season and has caught a few lucky bounces. But they lack the "Dawgs" needed to keep this close. MSU has given OSU games most season because the defense could shut down the OSU offense. That is just not the case this year. Walker will get his yards because MSU will feed him the rock. But the MSU defense is likely going to get gashed. You can not coach speed as they say. And MSU defense is lacking the speed and size to win this game. Watch the game against the skunk bears and you will see the issues up front. If Hairball was any kind of coach that game ends a different way. MSU lack of talented depth is going to catch up to them this week. And honestly the PSU game is going to be a problem. The difference is that Franklin is an idiot and by then he may have the ""secret" that he is gong to USC out of the bag and the team may mail it in.
At some point the lack of talent always catches up to you. MSU has been stealing games with stellar coaching and play calling. The Neb game should have been a loss. The SCum game should have been a loss. Honestly the IND game was not stellar. So at some point it catches up to you.
I feel pretty strongly that the only way this is close is if OSU plays sloppy and has some turnovers. And they also have to lose the Special teams game. Then maybe MSU can keep it close and steal another game.......which seems very unlikely as the Kicker is injured and the backup is "NOT READY" to put it kindly. Kid has missed 2 XP and a FG and they had Coughlin limping out to kick the XP last game because it is that bad. So MSU will not be kicking any game winners this weekend. I am not even sure they can kick a 30 yard FG. No idea what the injury is but he limps and you can see the grimace on his face for the XP.
The timing is bad for both teams as OSU has "The Game" the next weekend. But I just don't see how MSU overcomes the lack of athletic talent in the lines and on the defense as a whole. 20 does not seem like a huge number once you look at the issues MSU has had all season.
BTW I am not sure I agree that Day is a better coach be default. Not saying Tucker is better but he is way better than I had expected. Day has better athletes and this is season 1 of mostly his recruits. I am interested to see how things progress down there as Day is following some seriously great coaches and recruiting. The question is where is the all world DE OSU has seemingly had every year for the past decade? That is the problem as I see it. The Dline lacks the talent of the past 8-10 years to get pressure without blitzing.
Wish I was headed down as the Shoe is a great place to take in a game. The fans are a bit unruly at times towards the visitors but it is a really good game experience. Always fun to be in a rowdy stadium for a game.

I will be back later in the week and maybe Monday after........my buddies and I are really just riding the Walker train at this point. Getting a Heisman winner from your school is HUGE difference maker for recruiting. And this would be the first for MSU if he could somehow win it. And yes Henderson is a beast and just as good. It is all about timing in this case and a great story. Plus outside of the OSU QB and RB most of the nations elite players seem to be taking a year off. So a small crack of opportunity has opened for Walker and MSU.

 

[OregonBuckeye]

I am interested to see how things progress down there as Day is following some seriously great coaches and recruiting. The question is where is the all world DE OSU has seemingly had every year for the past decade? That is the problem as I see it. The Dline lacks the talent of the past 8-10 years to get pressure without blitzing.

DL has been up and down but we do appear to have 3 true frosh studs (including DT Tyleik Williams). The upperclassmen just haven't developed like we hoped. But Sawyer and JT appear to be more in the mold of our past stud DE's.

 

[5 STAR U-G-A]

The question is where is the all world DE OSU has seemingly had every year for the past decade? That is the problem as I see it. The Dline lacks the talent of the past 8-10 years to get pressure without blitzing.

This is one thing I've been wondering about, as I don't follow tOSU recruiting as closely as most of the posters on this forum.

I wonder how much the defensive struggles this year that the Buckeyes have had is just part of the learning curve of a young (Year 3) offensive-minded head coach?

Day inherited a loaded defense year 1, so things were really set in place for that unit to be more than merely formidable. Year 2, Covid. Shit was just weird. Almost didn't even have a season, and when he finally did, he had to deal with the strangeness of the covid protocols. Year 3, this is the first normal season where he has probably a lot of talented, but green, players on defense and things aren't as "ready to go" on that side of the ball as it was in 2019.

As good as a coach as Day is, he's still young, and offensively oriented, for a program with high expectations, so there's definitely going to be some challenges adapting year to year to meet those expectations.

 

[Bill Lucas]

I feel that a big part of the struggles is the lack of reps in 2020 due to COVID.

 

[Buckeneye]

This is one thing I've been wondering about, as I don't follow tOSU recruiting as closely as most of the posters on this forum.

I wonder how much the defensive struggles this year that the Buckeyes have had is just part of the learning curve of a young (Year 3) offensive-minded head coach?

Day inherited a loaded defense year 1, so things were really set in place for that unit to be more than merely formidable. Year 2, Covid. Shit was just weird. Almost didn't even have a season, and when he finally did, he had to deal with the strangeness of the covid protocols. Year 3, this is the first normal season where he has probably a lot of talented, but green, players on defense and things aren't as "ready to go" on that side of the ball as it was in 2019.

As good as a coach as Day is, he's still young, and offensively oriented, for a program with high expectations, so there's definitely going to be some challenges adapting year to year to meet those expectations.

The defense may have been loaded with talent in 2019, but that same talent was apart of the 2018 unit. One of the worst tOSU has put on the field the last 35 years.

Then coach Hafley stepped in and shaped them into one of the best groups this side of the 02' defense.

I suspect the recruiting hasn't been so much the issue. Many Buckeyes believed we had a 10 year drought in recruiting along the Oline under Tressel, with the exception of 1 or 2 years (The 05' Oline was really good. Mangold, Datish and Sims made one of the best left sides in the country) when Urban brought Warriner over from NoD year 1 - Boom, one of the most improved units on the team. We've had some questionable coaches on that side of the ball and it's going to take time to get back to a Silver Bullet standard.

 

[5 STAR U-G-A]

I suspect the recruiting hasn't been so much the issue.

We've had some questionable coaches on that side of the ball and it's going to take time to get back to a Silver Bullet standard.

Makes sense.

And even though I focused on young roster/talent in my post, I did mean to include the coaching aspect of the learning curve that Day may be facing. Specifically, finding the right assistants who can do the right things to coach the talent up and get them in position to make plays consistently.

 

[brodybuck21]

Makes sense.

And even though I focused on young roster/talent in my post, I did mean to include the coaching aspect of the learning curve that Day may be facing. Specifically, finding the right assistants who can do the right things to coach the talent up and get them in position to make plays consistently.

And then getting said "right" coaches to stay

 

[Buckeneye]

Friendly reminder -

Not some of it, not a part of it, not half of it.
We don't give a damn for the WHOLE state.

Just in case anyone was getting soft on me.

 

[NCBuckeye86]

Not sure if anyone has digged into the Nebraska vs Sparty or the IU vs. Sparty games. They were able to hold Walker to under 4.0 Yds a carry. I think that will be the key to the game personally. Sparty has the worst Pass Defense in the Nation. Which I am sure Coach Day is salivating over. However our D has to stop the run and prevent them from playing keep away essentially. We really havent seen a run threat like this since Minnesota and that really didnt go well for us. Excited to see what this Coaching staff is going to do for this game. Hopefully generate some more pressure on the QB as that was non-existent against Purdont.

 

[5 STAR U-G-A]

And then getting said "right" coaches to stay

That's probably the hardest part. Even Saban has struggled to do that, though he does a good job replacing coaches.

I think his "analyst" rehabilitation program helps with that, as he gets former HC's, who usually became HC's for being good coordinators, to be in the fold, so as soon as one leaves (e.g. replacing Kiffin with Sark on the fly), there's not TOO MUCH of a drop off.

 

[Onebuckfan]

Not sure if anyone has digged into the Nebraska vs Sparty or the IU vs. Sparty games. They were able to hold Walker to under 4.0 Yds a carry. I think that will be the key to the game personally. Sparty has the worst Pass Defense in the Nation. Which I am sure Coach Day is salivating over. However our D has to stop the run and prevent them from playing keep away essentially. We really havent seen a run threat like this since Minnesota and that really didnt go well for us. Excited to see what this Coaching staff is going to do for this game. Hopefully generate some more pressure on the QB as that was non-existent against Purdont.

Some blitzing ..run blitzes on early downs. MSU in 2nd and 9 is the key to stopping Walker. For me more Cage Williams and Rascal if healthy. Jackson and Vincent haven’t inspired me.

 

[cincibuck]

Beat both Michigans, cause we don't give damn for the WHOLE state of Michigan.

 

[Honor&Glory]

The WHOLE state.

 

[BB73]

Am I reading this right? Is ESPN ranking Ohio State's remaining SOS #7 and Bama's #1? Ohio State plays #6 and #7 while Bama plays #17 and #25. Maybe I'm not understanding what "Rem SOS' means...

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume

The major part in SOS is the winning % of your opponents. Because the SEC only plays 8 conference games, and almost all of their schools schedule an extra cupcake, some of which are FCS, the SEC (separate from the other 3 non-conference games for everybody), has about 7 fewer losses overall than the B1G. That’s part of why, as a group, their teams are rated more highly by simple algorithms. Yeah, with 9 conference games you play a tougher schedule, but you don’t get credit for playing a tougher schedule.

That, along with less opportunities for home games (every other year tOSU has 5 road conference games), was why I wasn’t enthused when Delany switched to the 9-game B1G conference slate.