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Sparty at tOSU, Nov 20th, 12 pm ET, ABC

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Redhawk said:
So any guesses how the defense matches up from those who are more than just armchair nonexperts like me?
Click to expand...

Sparty's offense is balanced 55/45 run/pass.

They are much more explosive than Purdue, .502 points per play which is good for 16th in the country. Which matches the eye test when you watch them. They run the ball with a back who can hit the home run and then they play action off of that down field. They are not a hyper-accurate short game passing attack at all. All their rate and total stats show a competent offense but it's hard to equate that to what happens when they deal with OSU's athletes.

Their QB is prone to turning it over some and they don't protect him very well. One other thing they don't do well, that's important, is 3rd down conversions (39%) which is 64th in the country kind of range.

Just spitballing, I'd put their offense in the Penn State/Nebraska/Oregon weight class. Those kind of offenses have struggled to get out of the 20's against the OSU defense so far this year. They can do some things but it's not as bad a match up as Purdue was schematically.
 
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Now here is the part Sparty needs to be concerned about. What can their defense do against the OSU offense?

Total defense
Yards per play they give up 5.3 on average. That's down in IU territory (5.5) good for 53rd (worst) in the nation.
Total yards per game they give up a whopping 459.6 per game, good for 111th in the country. That's worse than any team we have played this year.

Scoring defense
Opponent's points per play (a measure of explosiveness) they do almost exactly what OSU does at .273 points per play which is 12th nationally. Looks like they take the bend but don't break approach and make you work down the field.
Total points per game though is 23.4 per game allowed. That is on par with Rutgers, Purdue and Nebraska.

Passing Defense
They allow 7.1 yards per attempt which is 44th in the country, on par with Minnesota and our own OSU defense.
They give up over 350 pass yards per goddamn game which is good for dead last in all of college football.
They sack the passer on 6.09% of passing plays which is on par with Nebraska (5.73%), so that's not a big time pass rush.

Rush defense
They are a lot more salty here, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt. That is good for 15th in the country and similar to Minny and Oregon.
They only give up 108.8 rush yards per game which is much like the OSU defense that gives up 107.3
Is this because they are good against the run or is this because, why the fuck would I run on a team that can't defend the pass at all?
The answer is the latter. Opponents only run the ball 38.5% of the time against the Sparty defense. Far and away the lowest percentage in the nation.

Misc
They take the ball away just like our defense does at just under 2 a game
They give it away much more frequently though at 1.3 a game
Net TO margin, OSU is 8th in the country at +.9, MSU is 39th at +.3

MSU is 110th in the nation on being flagged (7.4 per game). OSU is only 83rd at 6.7.
Same kind of ratio for penalty yards per game. They are worse than OSU.

The only thing I find that they can do better defensively than OSU is opponent 3rd down conversion %. MSU is at 40.13%, OSU is 42.28. Both suck at it.

So at that kind of a glance, MSU has a defense worse than OSU's in almost every category and their primary weakness (pass defense) is a bad thing to suck at when facing the OSU offense. Their offense is nowhere near as good as OSU's so trying to keep up score for score is going to be a tall order. They don't do any of the hidden stuff (turnovers, penalties, 3rd downs) any better than OSU so not sure where they have any hidden advantages. Saturday's weather in Columbus doesn't look bad as of right now so I think they are shit out of luck personally.

All that said, they had no business beating tsun but, somehow, they did. The game still has to be played but a fuckton of things have to go their way to make this one close.
 
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well look at you.. and here we thought you were only another pretty face (or pretty butt)

Jaxbuck said:
Sparty's offense is balanced 55/45 run/pass.

They are much more explosive than Purdue, .502 points per play which is good for 16th in the country. Which matches the eye test when you watch them. They run the ball with a back who can hit the home run and then they play action off of that down field. They are not a hyper-accurate short game passing attack at all. All their rate and total stats show a competent offense but it's hard to equate that to what happens when they deal with OSU's athletes.

Their QB is prone to turning it over some and they don't protect him very well. One other thing they don't do well, that's important, is 3rd down conversions (39%) which is 64th in the country kind of range.

Just spitballing, I'd put their offense in the Penn State/Nebraska/Oregon weight class. Those kind of offenses have struggled to get out of the 20's against the OSU defense so far this year. They can do some things but it's not as bad a match up as Purdue was schematically.
Click to expand...

Jaxbuck said:
Now here is the part Sparty needs to be concerned about. What can their defense do against the OSU offense?

Total defense
Yards per play they give up 5.3 on average. That's down in IU territory (5.5) good for 53rd (worst) in the nation.
Total yards per game they give up a whopping 459.6 per game, good for 11th in the country. That's worse than any team we have played this year.

Scoring defense
Opponent's points per play (a measure of explosiveness) they do almost exactly what OSU does at .273 points per play which is 12th nationally. Looks like they take the bend but don't break approach and make you work down the field.
Total points per game though is 23.4 per game allowed. That is on par with Rutgers, Purdue and Nebraska.

Passing Defense
They allow 7.1 yards per attempt which is 44th in the country, on par with Minnesota and our own OSU defense.
They give up over 350 pass yards per goddamn game which is good for dead last in all of college football.
They sack the passer on 6.09% of passing plays which is on par with Nebraska (5.73%), so that's not a big time pass rush.

Rush defense
They are a lot more salty here, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt. That is good for 15th in the country and similar to Minny and Oregon.
They only give up 108.8 rush yards per game which is much like the OSU defense that gives up 107.3
Is this because they are good against the run or is this because, why the fuck would I run on a team that can't defend the pass at all?
The answer is the latter. Opponents only run the ball 38.5% of the time against the Sparty defense. Far and away the lowest percentage in the nation.

Misc
They take the ball away just like our defense does at just under 2 a game
They give it away much more frequently though at 1.3 a game
Net TO margin, OSU is 8th in the country at +.9, MSU is 39th at +.3

MSU is 110th in the nation on being flagged (7.4 per game). OSU is only 83rd at 6.7.
Same kind of ratio for penalty yards per game. They are worse than OSU.

The only thing I find that they can do better defensively than OSU is opponent 3rd down conversion %. MSU is at 40.13%, OSU is 42.28. Both suck at it.

So at that kind of a glance, MSU has a defense worse than OSU's in almost every category and their primary weakness (pass defense) is a bad thing to suck at when facing the OSU offense. Their offense is nowhere near as good as OSU's so trying to keep up score for score is going to be a tall order. They don't do any of the hidden stuff (turnovers, penalties, 3rd downs) any better than OSU so not sure where they have any hidden advantages. Saturday's weather in Columbus doesn't look bad as of right now so I think they are shit out of luck personally.

All that said, they had no business beating tsun but somehow they did so the game still has to be played but a fuckton of things have to go their way to make this one close.
Click to expand...
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Now here is the part Sparty needs to be concerned about. What can their defense do against the OSU offense?

Total defense
Yards per play they give up 5.3 on average. That's down in IU territory (5.5) good for 53rd (worst) in the nation.
Total yards per game they give up a whopping 459.6 per game, good for 11th in the country. That's worse than any team we have played this year.

Scoring defense
Opponent's points per play (a measure of explosiveness) they do almost exactly what OSU does at .273 points per play which is 12th nationally. Looks like they take the bend but don't break approach and make you work down the field.
Total points per game though is 23.4 per game allowed. That is on par with Rutgers, Purdue and Nebraska.

Passing Defense
They allow 7.1 yards per attempt which is 44th in the country, on par with Minnesota and our own OSU defense.
They give up over 350 pass yards per goddamn game which is good for dead last in all of college football.
They sack the passer on 6.09% of passing plays which is on par with Nebraska (5.73%), so that's not a big time pass rush.

Rush defense
They are a lot more salty here, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt. That is good for 15th in the country and similar to Minny and Oregon.
They only give up 108.8 rush yards per game which is much like the OSU defense that gives up 107.3
Is this because they are good against the run or is this because, why the fuck would I run on a team that can't defend the pass at all?
The answer is the latter. Opponents only run the ball 38.5% of the time against the Sparty defense. Far and away the lowest percentage in the nation.

Misc
They take the ball away just like our defense does at just under 2 a game
They give it away much more frequently though at 1.3 a game
Net TO margin, OSU is 8th in the country at +.9, MSU is 39th at +.3

MSU is 110th in the nation on being flagged (7.4 per game). OSU is only 83rd at 6.7.
Same kind of ratio for penalty yards per game. They are worse than OSU.

The only thing I find that they can do better defensively than OSU is opponent 3rd down conversion %. MSU is at 40.13%, OSU is 42.28. Both suck at it.

So at that kind of a glance, MSU has a defense worse than OSU's in almost every category and their primary weakness (pass defense) is a bad thing to suck at when facing the OSU offense. Their offense is nowhere near as good as OSU's so trying to keep up score for score is going to be a tall order. They don't do any of the hidden stuff (turnovers, penalties, 3rd downs) any better than OSU so not sure where they have any hidden advantages. Saturday's weather in Columbus doesn't look bad as of right now so I think they are shit out of luck personally.

All that said, they had no business beating tsun but, somehow, they did. The game still has to be played but a fuckton of things have to go their way to make this one close.
Click to expand...
Nice info.

And to put those stats in proper context, MSU has a schedule that is paper thin.

Their non-conf opponents were Youngstown, W Kentucky and the Miami Paper-Tigers. Their cross over games were Nebraska, Northwestern and Purdue - who beat them by 11.

They have yet to play OSU and PSU. So their only real contest was Michigan - who they beat with smoke and mirrors.

What O'Connell did Saturday was disturbing. But I can't remember the last time I saw a QB consistently get rid of the ball that quickly and accurately. Thorne won't do that.

The plan is simple. Stop Walker, watch the fireworks when we have the ball, and get ready for the following week.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Now here is the part Sparty needs to be concerned about. What can their defense do against the OSU offense?

Total defense
Yards per play they give up 5.3 on average. That's down in IU territory (5.5) good for 53rd (worst) in the nation.
Total yards per game they give up a whopping 459.6 per game, good for 11th in the country. That's worse than any team we have played this year.

Scoring defense
Opponent's points per play (a measure of explosiveness) they do almost exactly what OSU does at .273 points per play which is 12th nationally. Looks like they take the bend but don't break approach and make you work down the field.
Total points per game though is 23.4 per game allowed. That is on par with Rutgers, Purdue and Nebraska.

Passing Defense
They allow 7.1 yards per attempt which is 44th in the country, on par with Minnesota and our own OSU defense.
They give up over 350 pass yards per goddamn game which is good for dead last in all of college football.
They sack the passer on 6.09% of passing plays which is on par with Nebraska (5.73%), so that's not a big time pass rush.

Rush defense
They are a lot more salty here, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt. That is good for 15th in the country and similar to Minny and Oregon.
They only give up 108.8 rush yards per game which is much like the OSU defense that gives up 107.3
Is this because they are good against the run or is this because, why the fuck would I run on a team that can't defend the pass at all?
The answer is the latter. Opponents only run the ball 38.5% of the time against the Sparty defense. Far and away the lowest percentage in the nation.

Misc
They take the ball away just like our defense does at just under 2 a game
They give it away much more frequently though at 1.3 a game
Net TO margin, OSU is 8th in the country at +.9, MSU is 39th at +.3

MSU is 110th in the nation on being flagged (7.4 per game). OSU is only 83rd at 6.7.
Same kind of ratio for penalty yards per game. They are worse than OSU.

The only thing I find that they can do better defensively than OSU is opponent 3rd down conversion %. MSU is at 40.13%, OSU is 42.28. Both suck at it.

So at that kind of a glance, MSU has a defense worse than OSU's in almost every category and their primary weakness (pass defense) is a bad thing to suck at when facing the OSU offense. Their offense is nowhere near as good as OSU's so trying to keep up score for score is going to be a tall order. They don't do any of the hidden stuff (turnovers, penalties, 3rd downs) any better than OSU so not sure where they have any hidden advantages. Saturday's weather in Columbus doesn't look bad as of right now so I think they are shit out of luck personally.

All that said, they had no business beating tsun but, somehow, they did. The game still has to be played but a fuckton of things have to go their way to make this one close.
Click to expand...
Nice breakdown. Typo on Sparty’s defensive ranking, it has 3 straight 1s, rather than just a pair of them.
 
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