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- Thread starter BB73
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Greyshirt
All-American
As a MSU fan I would say that MSU is not in great shape heading into this game. The best Offensive Tackle has left the team for personal reasons (mental health issues I am told) and one of the better rotating Guards is out for the season. What little depth MSU had in the Oline is completely gone. The defensive line is B10 solid but best pass rusher has been out for most of the season and has come back at about 80% it appears. The CBs are a shit show of epic proportions. I think half of the scholarship CB are out injured. Against Maryland I think MSU had only 2 fully healthy CB dress. So the outside defense is bad. The LBs are decent and Safety Henderson is a NFL caliber player. If MSU does not create turnovers OSU will likely score 50+. And I doubt the offense can keep pace. Especially with the Oline on life support. I am expecting a closer game than expected first half with OSU pulling away in the second half once MSU wears down a bit. I do love the noon game time as I think that helps the visiting team. Takes the crowd out of the game some as the early start time tends to have late arriving fans and more sober fans quite honestly.
I would say that the MSU middle to deep passing game is solid and the short passing game is developing. Thorne has shown improvement throughout the season and is a upper tier B10 QB right now. MSU depth at WR is not great and having Nailor out has really hurt the squad. Reed is All B10 caliber and the TE Hunt is coming on after starting his career as a punter. Again MSU issues will be up front and I am not sure they have the ability to switch into a quick passing game needed to deal with the Dline of OSU. I kind of expect a complete commitment to the running game with the idea of keeping OSU offense off the field. If MSU can have longer drives and own the TOP they will have a chance to keep it close and maybe OSU gets frustrated and makes some mistakes leading to turnovers. Again I think the only way MSU wins is if they are +2 or 3 in turnover margin.
I would say that the MSU middle to deep passing game is solid and the short passing game is developing. Thorne has shown improvement throughout the season and is a upper tier B10 QB right now. MSU depth at WR is not great and having Nailor out has really hurt the squad. Reed is All B10 caliber and the TE Hunt is coming on after starting his career as a punter. Again MSU issues will be up front and I am not sure they have the ability to switch into a quick passing game needed to deal with the Dline of OSU. I kind of expect a complete commitment to the running game with the idea of keeping OSU offense off the field. If MSU can have longer drives and own the TOP they will have a chance to keep it close and maybe OSU gets frustrated and makes some mistakes leading to turnovers. Again I think the only way MSU wins is if they are +2 or 3 in turnover margin.
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Buckeneye
I lead, you follow.
Spread is -20 likely -21 by Thursday. Even with Sparty injuries, the combination of a dedicated running game and the Bucks defense still working on improving their zone pass offs, leverage, etc etc, I'd avoid that spread. Unless we expect to them to do to Sparty what was done against Purdue.
If the weather is favorable I'd likely bet the over, which I'm sure will be higher than the 62 from last week. Tucker knows he can't win a shootout. So part of me expects him to give Walker 30 carries.
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Nice summary, Greyshirt. Any secondary has their hands full with Ohio State and the evaluations here of the secondary align with yours. The Spartans deserve a top 10 ranking and that running back is special. If the players are put in a position to win on defense, I think that the Buckeyes may roll. If the defense looks like the second half last week, well, things could be very tight.
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bucknut502
Hall of Fame
Am I reading this right? Is ESPN ranking Ohio State's remaining SOS #7 and Bama's #1? Ohio State plays #6 and #7 while Bama plays #17 and #25. Maybe I'm not understanding what "Rem SOS' means...
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume
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bigdog3300
The G.O.A.T.
REM is a type of sleep, they are telling you they put these rankings together in their sleep....but specifically during the REM cycle of that sleep.
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Check with your local Community College and see if they offer class in SEC as a second language.
Then it will all make sense.
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Thanks for a nice summary.
All of the issues you have are what separates you from the Bug Dogs. Depth.
Tucker has done a marvelous transformation in one year. (although you got flat lucky with Walker). He keeps it up and you will get there.
All that said, I would not take Sparty and 20.
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AJHawkfan
Wanna make $14 the hard way?
To me, the bottom line is finishing drives. We all know tOSU offense is going to put up a lot of yardage. But, if Sparty can hold tOSU offense to fg attempts instead of tds, they might be able to hang around, a la Penn State & Nebraska. If they let the Bucks offense get into their groove, they can put up a lot of points in a hurry (just ask Purdue).
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5 STAR U-G-A
Legend
I expect tOSU do so something similar to what they did to Purdue.
MSU is a well-coached team with a good running back, but Day is a better coach than Tucker and player-per-player MSU doesn't come close to competing with tOSU.
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buckeyeintn
Legend
That is based on their Football Power Index (FPI) rankings, and probably includes the S-E-C (it just means more) championship game against the Dawgs. The FPI is a proprietary system that they refuse to reveal the basis for and appears to be based on throwing darts at a dart board while drunk and/or stoned, with much higher values given to S-E-C teams (it just means more). If your dart hits an S-E-C (it just means more) team your score is automatically tripled.
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5 STAR U-G-A
Legend
I can help translate as a fan of The Premiere SEC team in the Nation. When an SEC team (besides UGA) is ranked below #10, you only look at the second digit of their ranking to determine what their equivalent ranking would be in another conference to adjust to "SEC difficulty".
So according to ESPN, a #17 ranked SEC team translates to a #7 ranked team in another conference, and a #25 ranked team translates to a #5 ranked team in another conference.
Thus, Bama is REALLY playing the #7 and #5 teams in the country as opposed to the #6 and #7 ranked teams in the country...because, you know, S-E-C.
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I'm with you. It's an all or nothing bet.
If you think OSU can shut down Walker while the offense does it' thing, then the -20 isn't very scary
If you think that they or going to have some success with Walker, because it's do or die for them, then this thing could be much closer than we want it to.
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