Rose Bowl possibilities

[BrutusBobcat]

In the aftermath of the USC loss, the strange way in which the pollsters punished a 38-0 win, and the reality that the Big Ten has no more remaining big OOC games in which to prove...well, something, I've decided that I'd rather focus my fandom on something Ohio State can control -- going to Pasadena.

I won't begrudge those fans who want to crunch the BCS math, wring their hands over decisions made by graduate assistants and Harris poll stand-ins, or expectantly scan the top ten scoreboard each week in the hopes for an upset loss by Boise State to Wyoming. Have at it. My world will consist entirely of what happens in the Big Ten and Pac Ten, the way it usta be when I was a pup. The bowl game that matters will be the Rose; everything else might as well be the Motor City bowl as far as I'm concerned.

We all know that Tressel's resume as a Buckeye coach is legendary. National title, Big Ten titles, wins over TTUN, 80%+ wins...he has it all, everything a Hall of Fame OSU coach should have, except one: a Rose Bowl win. It's time. This is the season, this is the team.

The nice thing is that getting there is simple. Win every remaining game, and root for Northwestern and Michigan State to lose at least once in conference.

Obviously, the key games are at Penn State and at Michigan. Just to hedge our bets, we want both of them to lose at least another game, so we root against them every week. This is where I break faith with the BCS watchers; for BCS math, we'd want to face both of either of those teams unbeaten (they both can't be, because they play each other before they play us). For Rose Bowl math, they need to lose early and lose often.

This week, we're looking for:

- Minnesota over Northwestern, since OSU doesn't play the Mildcats
- Wisconsin over MSU, same reason

Iowa and Indiana don't have much of a shot, playing PSU and scUM on the road, but there's always a Mountaineer's chance in a Big House.

And the most important -- Ohio State over Illinois. Important because it's the conference opener, because we win a wooden turtle, and because we owe Juice and the Zooker some paybacks.

Boom. That's it. We care about five games, only two of which are even in doubt. Talk about efficiency.

The nice thing about joining the Rose Bowl bandwagon is that style points no longer count, ESPN no longer counts, polls, computers, wins and losses in the SEC...really, that's worth it right there. Do you really want to have to watch Ole Miss/Our Kansas, or heaven forbid, yet another game on that $*@&!# blue turf? Isn't watching WAC football one of the punishments in Dante's Inferno? Yeah, I'm looking forward to caring about the outcome of Boise State versus Wyoming. Sign me up.

If five games just isn't enough, you can take a glance out west and find a couple of relevant matchups.

- Cal goes to Oregon, which either puts a nail in Oregon's season or livens things up a bit.

- Washington and Stanford are both 1-0 in conference and play each other in Palo Alto.

"Rose Bowl Champion Ohio State Buckeyes"...has a nice ring to it, and is something we haven't heard in Columbus for a while.

 

[Apache]

Rematch

Could a rematch be in the making?

University of Spoiled Children vs tOSU?

Could it happen?

Go Bucks

 

[Zurp]

I'm one of the people who enjoy watching the top-10 teams get upset, because it usually means Ohio State moves up in the rankings (unless they shut out Toledo, I guess). However, I tend to laugh when I hear people jumping ship this early in the season when their teams lose, or when it looks like the teams in front of them will never lose, and they have no chance at making it to the National Championship game. I think that if teams win their games, things will usually fall into place.

You say there are 5 important games. I, however, say that there is only 1 important game: Illinois at Ohio State.

But I'm with you. I want Minnesota and Wisconsin to win this week, and I'd love to see Iowa beat Penn State, and I always enjoy watching Michigan lose. I'm still going to root for the top-10 teams to get upset, too.

 

[BrutusBobcat]

Two weeks into the B10 schedule and we're now down to three teams that are unbeaten in conference: Wisconsin (5-0, 2-0), Ohio state (4-1, 2-0) and Iowa (5-0, 1-0).

Two other teams are 0-2 and essentially eliminated: Indiana and Illinois. It seems that the fastest way to exit the Big Ten race is to play Ohio State.

That makes this weekend's upcoming game against Wisky (#25 in Coaches' Poll) the biggest in-conference test so far and hugely important. Obviously, all games are important, but so far Wisconsin has looked as strong or stronger than Iowa, PSU or scUM.

Yes, one of the nice things about not having a conference championship game is that you have several throughout the year. This is one of them. The winner will be in the driver's seat, while Wisconsin will be staring out into space while licking the window, hoping that the driver gets lost on the way to school.

We're out of the woods as far as the teams we don't play. Big Ten tiebreaker rules have changed yet again -- the first tie breaker is head-to-head competition, followed by overall record, then finally BCS ranking. I'm not sure why the method that doesn't work for the B-12 is our new system, but it is what it is. Given that MSU has three losses and Northwestern two, there's little to no chance of losing a tiebreaker to either team even if they were to win out and OSU were to drop a game. As a result, we can root for MSU or NU to beat other conference foes. Note that this is again something that runs counter to what we'd want in the "Chaos Theory" thread. What that means is that for games that NU and MSU play, there's a silver lining no matter what happens, so we can essentially ignore those games. It's all about making Saturday more efficient. :)

A second loss by the remaining conference teams provides OSU with a cushion, allowing a conference loss while still winning the title and going to the Rose Bowl. Think of it as insurance. That loss can be provided by the Bucks or by any other conference team. Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota and Purdue are the teams with one conference loss.

Penn State continues their brutal OOC schedule against Pee Wee league champions from around the nation this week, hosting Eastern Illinois. The hospitality of the raging kittens is becoming legendary. I'm thinking about getting together a group of guys from church to see if we can get on the slate. The tough part is finding guys over 30 who still have eligibility remaining.

Purdue and Minny play each other, so someone is out no matter what. Watch for your entertainment, and root for bad football, because we win either way.

Michigan plays Iowa, and my personal rule is to always root against Michigan. A second loss in conference renders The Game irrelevant, so if you're nostalgic for some kind of bad remake of the Bo - Woody wars, featuring a modern, dysfunctional Michigan "family" versus the squeaky clean Fighting Sweater Vests, then go ahead and root for Michigan. It's a free country. Kick your dog while you're at it, Michael Vick. A win for Iowa also helps those BCS trackers, because it's better to play a ranked, unbeaten and highly hyped Iowa team late if the Bucks need votes to jump in the polls.

One guarantee this weekend is that Northwestern will not jump Ohio State in the Big Ten standings after they pummel Mighty Miami of Ohio, since brain damaged media voters don't determine conference champions, or much of anything, really.

Beat Bucky!

 

[ttk]

Pac-10 Perspective

Hey,

Hope this isn't too out of line, I just thought I'd chime in here with a view of the Pac-10 as it stands and offer some perspective on the possible Pac-10 entrant into the Rose Bowl.

Here's a look at the current standings:
1. Stanford (4-1 overall, 3-0 in conference)
2. Oregon (4-1, 2-0)
3. Arizona (3-1, 1-0)
4. USC (4-1, 2-1)
5. Oregon State (3-2, 1-1)
6. Washington (2-3, 1-1)
7. UCLA (3-1, 0-1)
8. Arizona State (2-2, 0-1)
9. California (3-2, 0-2)
10. Washington State (1-4, 0-3)


This week's games:
There are four games in the Pac-10 this week:

(13) Oregon at UCLA
Stanford at Oregon State
Arizona at Washington
Arizona State at Washington State

USC and California have a bye this week.


What to watch:
Oregon is going to be a team to keep an eye on throughout the month, when they cap it off on October 31st by hosting the USC Trojans. Oregon is pretty much in the driver's seat, because as improved as Stanford is, nobody expect them to win out because they got to where they are by the luck of having all of their easy games at the beginning of the season.

Oregon, in the meanwhile, has already defeated Cal and faces two main roadblock games on the way to the Rose Bowl: USC on October 31st and rival Oregon State on December 3rd. If Oregon makes it out of October unscathed (featuring two road games at UCLA and Washington and a tough game vs USC) then they are in a great position to go to the Rose Bowl.

The other main contender, obviously, is USC. They're beginning to find their offense a bit and let Barkley have a longer leash, which is leading to a much more balanced offensive attack. USC's defense is also putting up even better numbers than last year's historic defense, so things are looking solid on that side of the ball. Star wide receiver Ronald Johnson is looking to come back for the Notre Dame game next week, giving Barkley an established deep threat. On the bye week USC is also expected to get some key personnel back on the defensive line.

 

[Bucklion]

Hey,

Hope this isn't too out of line, I just thought I'd chime in here with a view of the Pac-10 as it stands and offer some perspective on the possible Pac-10 entrant into the Rose Bowl.

Here's a look at the current standings:
1. Stanford (4-1 overall, 3-0 in conference)
2. Oregon (4-1, 2-0)
3. Arizona (3-1, 1-0)
4. USC (4-1, 2-1)
5. Oregon State (3-2, 1-1)
6. Washington (2-3, 1-1)
7. UCLA (3-1, 0-1)
8. Arizona State (2-2, 0-1)
9. California (3-2, 0-2)
10. Washington State (1-4, 0-3)


This week's games:
There are four games in the Pac-10 this week:

(13) Oregon at UCLA
Stanford at Oregon State
Arizona at Washington
Arizona State at Washington State

USC and California have a bye this week.


What to watch:
Oregon is going to be a team to keep an eye on throughout the month, when they cap it off on October 31st by hosting the USC Trojans. Oregon is pretty much in the driver's seat, because as improved as Stanford is, nobody expect them to win out because they got to where they are by the luck of having all of their easy games at the beginning of the season.

Oregon, in the meanwhile, has already defeated Cal and faces two main roadblock games on the way to the Rose Bowl: USC on October 31st and rival Oregon State on December 3rd. If Oregon makes it out of October unscathed (featuring two road games at UCLA and Washington and a tough game vs USC) then they are in a great position to go to the Rose Bowl.

The other main contender, obviously, is USC. They're beginning to find their offense a bit and let Barkley have a longer leash, which is leading to a much more balanced offensive attack. USC's defense is also putting up even better numbers than last year's historic defense, so things are looking solid on that side of the ball. Star wide receiver Ronald Johnson is looking to come back for the Notre Dame game next week, giving Barkley an established deep threat. On the bye week USC is also expected to get some key personnel back on the defensive line.

Not out of line at all. What do people out your way think of Arizona? Their only loss was at Iowa, and that was a competitive game. Are they a team that could make some noise, or headed towards 7-5?

 

[Bucklion]

Two weeks into the B10 schedule and we're now down to three teams that are unbeaten in conference: Wisconsin (5-0, 2-0), Ohio state (4-1, 2-0) and Iowa (5-0, 1-0).

Two other teams are 0-2 and essentially eliminated: Indiana and Illinois. It seems that the fastest way to exit the Big Ten race is to play Ohio State.

That makes this weekend's upcoming game against Wisky (#25 in Coaches' Poll) the biggest in-conference test so far and hugely important. Obviously, all games are important, but so far Wisconsin has looked as strong or stronger than Iowa, PSU or scUM.

Yes, one of the nice things about not having a conference championship game is that you have several throughout the year. This is one of them. The winner will be in the driver's seat, while Wisconsin will be staring out into space while licking the window, hoping that the driver gets lost on the way to school.

We're out of the woods as far as the teams we don't play. Big Ten tiebreaker rules have changed yet again -- the first tie breaker is head-to-head competition, followed by overall record, then finally BCS ranking. I'm not sure why the method that doesn't work for the B-12 is our new system, but it is what it is. Given that MSU has three losses and Northwestern two, there's little to no chance of losing a tiebreaker to either team even if they were to win out and OSU were to drop a game. As a result, we can root for MSU or NU to beat other conference foes. Note that this is again something that runs counter to what we'd want in the "Chaos Theory" thread. What that means is that for games that NU and MSU play, there's a silver lining no matter what happens, so we can essentially ignore those games. It's all about making Saturday more efficient. :)

A second loss by the remaining conference teams provides OSU with a cushion, allowing a conference loss while still winning the title and going to the Rose Bowl. Think of it as insurance. That loss can be provided by the Bucks or by any other conference team. Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota and Purdue are the teams with one conference loss.

Penn State continues their brutal OOC schedule against Pee Wee league champions from around the nation this week, hosting Eastern Illinois. The hospitality of the raging kittens is becoming legendary. I'm thinking about getting together a group of guys from church to see if we can get on the slate. The tough part is finding guys over 30 who still have eligibility remaining.

Purdue and Minny play each other, so someone is out no matter what. Watch for your entertainment, and root for bad football, because we win either way.

Michigan plays Iowa, and my personal rule is to always root against Michigan. A second loss in conference renders The Game irrelevant, so if you're nostalgic for some kind of bad remake of the Bo - Woody wars, featuring a modern, dysfunctional Michigan "family" versus the squeaky clean Fighting Sweater Vests, then go ahead and root for Michigan. It's a free country. Kick your dog while you're at it, Michael Vick. A win for Iowa also helps those BCS trackers, because it's better to play a ranked, unbeaten and highly hyped Iowa team late if the Bucks need votes to jump in the polls.

One guarantee this weekend is that Northwestern will not jump Ohio State in the Big Ten standings after they pummel Mighty Miami of Ohio, since brain damaged media voters don't determine conference champions, or much of anything, really.

Beat Bucky!

I think Minnesota is better than some may think, so I see them with a big win this weekend. Northwestern and Michigan State are both pretty disappointing (Michigan win aside), so I think it comes down to whether Wisconsin's defense is better than awful (their O is pretty good) and whether Iowa is the team that won in Happy Valley or the one that squeaked by 2 teams at home that, well, should have been on Penn State's non-conference slate (that was funny shit, BTW ). Michigan and Penn State look OK but vulnerable, and otherwise it looks like another suckfest in the Big Ten this year. It would be nice if some of the other teams could keep up for more than a year, but unfortunately, they can't. I watched some of the "1995 season in review" or whatever it was on the BTN...Gawd, how much better the talent in the conference was across the board then than it is now.

 

[ant80]

Not out of line at all. What do people out your way think of Arizona? Their only loss was at Iowa, and that was a competitive game. Are they a team that could make some noise, or headed towards 7-5?

Not to mention that Iowa was the only Big10 team to win their bowl game last year. I think they'll win this week, and come in undefeated to the 'Shoe in November.

 

[ttk]

Not out of line at all. What do people out your way think of Arizona? Their only loss was at Iowa, and that was a competitive game. Are they a team that could make some noise, or headed towards 7-5?

I think everyone out here is taking a cautious "wait-and-see" approach to Arizona. They ended up 8-5 last year including their bowl game, and they played very well even in their losses, never losing by more than 10 points and really putting up a fight against some upper-level teams. They've tended to be a solid team but they still need a bit of a push to get into the upper echelon of Pac-10 teams.

That said, if they win this week at Washington, there is a VERY good chance they could be 7-1 heading into the middle of November. After this week's road game, they get three home games, against Stanford, UCLA, and Washington State -- all very winnable games, especially at home. If that happens, I'd expect them to be ranked pretty well before facing a brutal four-game stretch with three road games at California, at rival Arizona State and then at the Coliseum with USC.

 

[daddyphatsacs]

That said, if they win this week at Washington, there is a VERY good chance they could be 7-1 heading into the middle of November.

Wouldn't that be ironic if the Stoops with the most wins this year is Mike.

 

[BB73]

tOSU still controls their own path to the Rose Bowl. Winning out would give the Buckeyes no worse than one of these scenarios:

- A two-way tie with Iowa, and head-to-head is the first tiebreaker.

- A two-way tie with Sparty, and overall record would give tOSU the tiebreaker

- A three-way tie with Iowa and Sparty is not possible if tOSU wins out, since they still play each other.

Big.Ten.Conference.Tiebreakers

A fifth straight Big Ten title is now the goal.

 

[daddyphatsacs]

tOSU still controls their own path to the Rose Bowl. Winning out would give the Buckeyes no worse than one of these scenarios:

- A two-way tie with Iowa, and head-to-head is the first tiebreaker.

- A two-way tie with Sparty, and overall record would give tOSU the tiebreaker

- A three-way tie with Iowa and Sparty is not possible if tOSU wins out, since they still play each other.

Big.Ten.Conference.Tiebreakers

A fifth straight Big Ten title is now the goal.

Good stuff BB73. I think it's a realistic possibility. You have to believe that this offense has bottomed out. Maybe they can pick themselves up, dust off, and start to actually make progress. Sometimes it take a bad loss like this to get people's asses in gear, anyone remember Iowa 2004? I know I'm an optimist; I just hate talking about all that is wrong, and could be wrong. Instead I choose to focus on what can be made right. Perhaps some of the Buckeye faithful should step off their ledges today and join me. :)

 

[Oh8ch]

anyone remember Iowa 2004?

That is an apt comparison. That year it was our D that gave us trouble. Iowa ended a three game losing streak in which gave up an average of 30 per game and no less than 24.

I don't know when the O will kick it in gear - but when it does I expect it to stay there. We have two home games to get well. (Of course, I thought we would "get well" against Purdue also.)

Right now the Big Ten is as wide open as I can remember. Its a shame we used our "Get out of Jail Free" card against Purdue, but it's kinda fun to be in this kind of race for a change.

 

[Steve19]

Its a shame we used our "Get out of Jail Free" card against Purdue, but it's kinda fun to be in this kind of race for a change.

Ah, so do we enjoy our torture in scarlet and gray, Oh8ch?

 

[ant80]

tOSU still controls their own path to the Rose Bowl. Winning out would give the Buckeyes no worse than one of these scenarios:

- A two-way tie with Iowa, and head-to-head is the first tiebreaker.

- A two-way tie with Sparty, and overall record would give tOSU the tiebreaker

- A three-way tie with Iowa and Sparty is not possible if tOSU wins out, since they still play each other.

Big.Ten.Conference.Tiebreakers

A fifth straight Big Ten title is now the goal.

I don't think we win out. I think we drop at least one of the last three regular-season games. I really hope that's not going to come up North.