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Reds Tidbits (2011 Season)

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Dryden;1905218; said:
I said it before and I'll say it again, I had the first pick overall in our fantasy league and I took Pujols. ... I'm the fucking hex-master, so I'm more than willing to tank my fantasy team if it burns the Cardinals. Last year I took Teixeira, and he fell flat on his face out of the gate. The year before that my first pick was Wright, and he of course got beaned and missed a lot of time, and really hasn't ever been the same hitter since.
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Jaxbuck;1905237; said:
I'm 100% serious when I say guys like us should start a shakedown business on pro athletes.

I've got a laundry list of careers I ended with a first round fantasy pick and I don't mean any common injury stuff, I'm talking out of the blue act of god shit.

We just contact their agent and ask what its worth to them for their client to not be selected.
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For those scoring at home, thus far this season, I have broken Pujols's arm, hit Marlon Byrd in the face with a fastball, shredded Mike Napoli's oblique, hobbled Josh Willingham's Achilles, inflammed Josh Johnson's shoulder, put Zach Britton on a strict pitch count, and killed Jose Reyes's grandma.
 
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Dryden;1944391; said:
For those scoring at home, thus far this season, I have broken Pujols's arm, hit Marlon Byrd in the face with a fastball, shredded Mike Napoli's oblique, hobbled Josh Willingham's Achilles, inflammed Josh Johnson's shoulder, put Zach Britton on a strict pitch count, and killed Jose Reyes's grandma.
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GPA?
 
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Absolutely have to sweep the Orioles. The next 16 games will tell us a lot about this team. After the O's, we play:


  • 3 @ Tampa Bay (.547 Winning Percentage)
  • 3 vs Cleveland (.548 Winning Percentage)
  • 3 @ St. Louis (.539 Winning Percentage)
  • 4 @ Milwaukee (.539 Winning Percentage)
That is a hell of stretch, with the last 7 coming on the road against teams who are currently tied for the division lead. Even considering how we own Milwaukee, I'd be thrilled to go 6-7 over that stretch, and think 5-8 is more likely.
 
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BengalsAndBucks;1944636; said:
Absolutely have to sweep the Orioles. The next 16 games will tell us a lot about this team. After the O's, we play:


  • 3 @ Tampa Bay (.547 Winning Percentage)
  • 3 vs Cleveland (.548 Winning Percentage)
  • 3 @ St. Louis (.539 Winning Percentage)
  • 4 @ Milwaukee (.539 Winning Percentage)
That is a hell of stretch, with the last 7 coming on the road against teams who are currently tied for the division lead. Even considering how we own Milwaukee, I'd be thrilled to go 6-7 over that stretch, and think 5-8 is more likely.
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I see the Reds sweeping the Cards
2/3 in the Baltimore, Cleveland, and Milwaukee
1/3 in the Tampa series

10-6 is what I'm seeing, not too hateful.
 
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TooTallMenardo;1944648; said:
Just like what I've seen from our pitching lately, hopefully the bats can find their stride and the Reds will be in a good shape.
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Random deviations go away as quickly as they come, Reds team pitching has the 2nd lowest BABIP in the NL. A correction looms, especially for Cueto and Cordero.
 
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Jaxbuck;1944677; said:
Random deviations go away as quickly as they come, Reds team pitching has the 2nd lowest BABIP in the NL. A correction looms, especially for Cueto and Cordero.
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God damn I hate baseball for the 1,000,000,000 stat categories and abbreviations. :lol: I have no idea what the fuck that means, but it can't be good....?
 
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TooTallMenardo;1944684; said:
God damn I hate baseball for the 1,000,000,000 stat categories and abbreviations. :lol: I have no idea what the fuck that means, but it can't be good....?
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Batting Average on Balls In Play = BABIP

Essentially, once a ball is struck and in play the pitcher is at the mercy of luck (and the quality of his teams defense). This measures how "lucky" or "unlucky" a pitcher has been. .300 is considered average so if you are way below you have been getting lucky and way above you have been unlucky.

Its a good stat but in the short term its not a reliable predictor of when the correction is coming.

Another thing to look at is LOB (left on base) percentage for a pitcher. 72% or so is average. If you are stranding a bunch of guys (80% range) and getting BABIP lucky (say .230 or so) you are a boiling pot of correction waiting to to happen.

Cueto and Cordero both have unsustainably low BABIP and high LOB numbers right now. No way to tell if its tomorrow or September but the odds get steeper everyday in favor of tropical storm BacktoReality coming ashore. The longer it goes the stronger the correction storm.
 
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