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Reds Tidbits (2008 season)

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jlb1705;1180825; said:
I guess I shouldn't be shocked, but I remembered reading your post last night and being impressed, only to check the standings this morning to find the Reds sitting in sixth place in the only six-team division in MLB. Furthermore, the Reds' record matches their Pythagorean record.

It's interesting to look at the Pythag. standings for the rest of the division. The Cubs have been the best team in baseball, and are actually playing 1 game BELOW their Pythag. record Apart from them and the Reds though, everyone else is getting results better than their Pythag. record.

Just looking at the history of this divsion and the teams on paper, it's easy for one to assume that the NL Central as a whole is playing over their heads so far and are due to regress to what everyone expected of them. However, I don't know that really means much for the Reds. The Pythag. standings would have them in fourth place instead of sixth, but only a half game ahead of Pythag. cellar-dwellers Houston & Pittsburgh.

Long story short - we've seen a few good things out of this Reds team lately, but it's going to take a significant win streak to turn this around and make the Reds into realistic pretenders, let alone contenders.

You can second-guess nearly everything over the course of an MLB season, but there were three games on the road trip that the Reds absolutlely gave away or fell on bad luck that have changed the complexion of this season at the moment (The two losses to the Fish, and the game in Philly vs. Kendrick). (Yes, I'm counting a blowout among games the Reds should have won. There were still plenty of missed opportunities on offense and Harang on the mound. That game was about mindset.) Win two of those three, and the Reds would be over .500, they'd have momentum, and would be in fourth place - 7.5 games back in the division and 5 games back in the wild card.
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I know the Cubs are playing below their Pythag but if you look at the individual players you have several guys on that team having career years. maybe they'll come back, maybe they won't. At this point math starts to take over and all they have to do is play .500 ball and they'll probably win the central.

Look at the WC standings and the teams involved. I'm not one given to kool aide drinking blind optimisim but the Reds, as they are currently constructed, can hang. I'll Vbet right now that 90 wins will get you the WC at the end of the year.

We are 7 games back of the Cards for the WC right now and start a 3 game series at home with them. The pitching matchups are all either slightly in our favor or a push at worst.

Forget Philly, Chicago and Arizona and look at whats left. We can compete with any of them, its just a matter of seeing if we can overcome a solid month(April) of sub .400 ball. Thats really what we are up against.
 
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Jaxbuck;1180845; said:
We are 7 games back of the Cards for the WC right now and start a 3 game series at home with them. The pitching matchups are all either slightly in our favor or a push at worst.

Forget Philly, Chicago and Arizona and look at whats left. We can compete with any of them, its just a matter of seeing if we can overcome a solid month(April) of sub .400 ball. Thats really what we are up against.
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Agreed.

The NL Central is looking pretty strong top to bottom right now. The worst team in the Central (Cincinnati), would be only 3.5 back and in second place in the West, and in the middle of the pack and about 6 back in the East. Remove Phily, Chicago, and Arizona from the equation, and you're left with StL leading the WC right now with 38 wins on smoke and mirrors with Carpenter, Clement, and Mulder all on the DL. They cannot keep their current pace up. Behind StL is who? Florida w/ 34 wins!

The WC is not out of the question, and if the Reds can scrap their way into the post season, they've got as good a shot in a 7-game series as anyone else with Harang and Volquez taking 4 of the 7 starts.
 
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Dryden;1180879; said:
... you're left with StL leading the WC right now with 38 wins on smoke and mirrors with Carpenter, Clement, and Mulder all on the DL. They cannot keep their current pace up.
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Wainwright sent to the DL today. Pineiro listed on the DL now too.

Who has Lohse, Looper, or Wellemeyer next up on the St. Louis starting rotation dead pool?
 
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Dryden;1180954; said:
Wainwright sent to the DL today. Pineiro listed on the DL now too.

Who has Lohse, Looper, or Wellemeyer next up on the St. Louis starting rotation dead pool?
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Exactly right.

Here are the current NL WC standings before tonights games, 7 games seprate them all. Our current record vs each included

St Louis 1-2
Florida 5-2
Milwuakee 3-3
Atlanta 3-3
Houston 0-2
Pittsburgh 2-4
New York 1-2
Cincinnati
La Dodgers 1-4

There is no way in hell St Louis is going to stay at 11 games above .500 the rest of the year. Everyone else on that list has just as many, if not more, issues than the Reds do.

As I showed before the Reds winning began on May 5th with a series vs the Cubs at home. Since that time here is how the NL Central has shaped up other than Chicago.

NL Central team record since 5/5/08:

Pitt 19-14 (.576)
Cin 18-14 (.563)
St L 17-15 (.531)
Mil 17-15 (.531)
Hou 16-16 (.500)

Start taking care of business vs the NL central teams and we'll be fine. I guarantee 90 games wins the WC. It can be us just as easy as it could be any of those teams.
 
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OK, the flipside of all that stuff I wrote above is that if they continue to tank it against the NL Central teams they will be out of this very soon.

Second time in 3 days a guy making his MLB debut is mowing us down because we didn't jump on him early when we had the chance and our guy is throwing BP. :shake:

They'll be 5 games under .500 after tonight and 8 back in the WC. WJ needs to either do something to fucking help this year or do something to help the future.
 
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Jaxbuck;1181265; said:
OK, the flipside of all that stuff I wrote above is that if they continue to tank it against the NL Central teams they will be out of this very soon.

Second time in 3 days a guy making his MLB debut is mowing us down because we didn't jump on him early when we had the chance and our guy is throwing BP. :shake:

They'll be 5 games under .500 after tonight and 8 back in the WC. WJ needs to either do something to fucking help this year or do something to help the future.
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IMO you try and build for the future, while playing the future...Don't build for this year...Next year is the year when the franchise really needs to turn around...
 
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crazybuckfan40;1181300; said:
IMO you try and build for the future, while playing the future...Don't build for this year...Next year is the year when the franchise really needs to turn around...
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Yeah but look at freakin St Louis for example. They don't ever wait for next year, they run a bunch of scrubs and Pujols out there every year and just find ways to win. Its insane.

We've been conditioned to think we need 5 great pitchers, a lights out pen and an all star at damn near every position to win. Put this team down on paper and the Cardinals next to it and see how many guys from St Louis you would take over their counterpart on the Reds.

This team just needs to pull their collective head out of their ass and decide its time to quit failing. We can all sit here and point out the tactical errors Dusty makes, and man does he make them, but the bottom line is at some point a guy has to say "my team needs me to do this to win" and just go out there and fucking perform.

Harang and Bailey have been out pitched by two kids making their MLB debuts the past 3 days.

BP watches a kid throw 9 straight balls and ends his AB in less than 3 pitches in the first inning against both kids

Dusty makes lineups that border on criminally incompetent.

The team as a whole can't get a 2 out hit to save their kids lives, let alone their own. Its like we only get 18 outs per game instead of 27.

Someone just needs to step the fuck up and say enough is enough we aren't losing anymore.
 
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Jaxbuck;1181311; said:
Yeah but look at freakin St Louis for example. They don't ever wait for next year, they run a bunch of scrubs and Pujols out there every year and just find ways to win. Its insane.

We've been conditioned to think we need 5 great pitchers, a lights out pen and an all star at damn near every position to win. Put this team down on paper and the Cardinals next to it and see how many guys from St Louis you would take over their counterpart on the Reds.

This team just needs to pull their collective head out of their ass and decide its time to quit failing. We can all sit here and point out the tactical errors Dusty makes, and man does he make them, but the bottom line is at some point a guy has to say "my team needs me to do this to win" and just go out there and fucking perform.

Harang and Bailey have been out pitched by two kids making their MLB debuts the past 3 days.

BP watches a kid throw 9 straight balls and ends his AB in less than 3 pitches in the first inning against both kids

Dusty makes lineups that border on criminally incompetent.

The team as a whole can't get a 2 out hit to save their kids lives, let alone their own. Its like we only get 18 outs per game instead of 27.

Someone just needs to step the fuck up and say enough is enough we aren't losing anymore.
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Can't say I disagree with any of this...

It is time for a culture change...Somehow someway...

I think griffey is addition by subtraction...Love the guy, Best ball player of my generation...The thing is right now he really isn't a guy that many teams would want on their team...

I love Dunn, and it will be hard to get numbers like his, but I think the losing culture is embedded in his blood...Just seems at times he takes shit in stride too much, instead of being the guy to change this shit around...

It seems we need to bring the domincan guys to cincy as they are the ones that don't understand the word loser...Cueto, Volquez and coco...
 
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