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Reds Tidbits (2007 Season)

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I agree with everything you said there Jax. I think given the ballpark they play in that it makes sense for the Reds to be HR driven team. However, they seem to be throwing the OBP out in favor of the HR. I think I was getting at the same thing when I said "more consistent." By that, I mean getting on base more and driving the guys who get on in. The Reds are last in the league in BA with RISP. Lots of ducks left on the pond. I don't necessarily mean playing small ball either. I'd like to see more 2 run doubles from this team moreso than sacrafice bunts.

Also, Narron has no clue how to construct a lineup for this team that maximizes what he has. I don't care if he does hit 30 HR this year, Phillips shouldn't bat above 7th until is OBP goes above .350. Oh, but we've been over the lineup thing a thousand times and Narron isn't going to get any smarter about it. The Reds are 5th in the league in runs scored, which doesn't seem bad. They average 4.5 runs per game which isn't bad either, but it seems more like 9 one day and 2 the next than 4 one day and 5 the next. And when they score 9, they give up 12. That's what I mean by inconsistent.
 
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MuckFich06;872684; said:
However, they seem to be throwing the OBP out in favor of the HR. I think I was getting at the same thing when I said "more consistent." By that, I mean getting on base more and driving the guys who get on in. The Reds are last in the league in BA with RISP. Lots of ducks left on the pond.
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HR's(or any hit for that matter) don't subtract from OBP. They aren't taking enough walks or getting enough hits period, thus the abysmal team OBP. If you mean it seems they are trying to hit too many HR's and making outs because of it, then I'll say what I always say...all outs are bad. This argument is purely subjective btw, you can't quantify a guy made an out because you think he was trying to hit a HR.

Also, the BA wRISP isnt the greatest measuring tool. There are more detailed stats on the topic but a simple glance of what a guy's OPS is wRISP will tell you a lot more than what his BA in the same situation will. My disclaimer here is beware making judgements on small sample sizes and thats what you will see a lot of anytime someone starts throwing around RISP numbers.

All in all give me a team that has a great team OBP and enough power to do something with it and I'll show you a team that scores a lot of runs. There just isn't any way around it. The OBP component is by far the more critical.
 
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Jaxbuck;872726; said:
HR's(or any hit for that matter) don't subtract from OBP. They aren't taking enough walks or getting enough hits period, thus the abysmal team OBP. If you mean it seems they are trying to hit too many HR's and making outs because of it, then I'll say what I always say...all outs are bad. This argument is purely subjective btw, you can't quantify a guy made an out because you think he was trying to hit a HR.

Also, the BA wRISP isnt the greatest measuring tool. There are more detailed stats on the topic but a simple glance of what a guy's OPS is wRISP will tell you a lot more than what his BA in the same situation will. My disclaimer here is beware making judgements on small sample sizes and thats what you will see a lot of anytime someone starts throwing around RISP numbers.

All in all give me a team that has a great team OBP and enough power to do something with it and I'll show you a team that scores a lot of runs. There just isn't any way around it. The OBP component is by far the more critical.
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I will concede that I cannot devine whether or not a particular guy is trying to hit a HR in a given AB (although Phillips looks like he's about to screw himself into the ground with some of his swings). I totally agree that OBP is the key factor to scoring runs. That's why I believe the Reds have become overly HR dependent when it comes to scoring. The Reds have left the highest number of runners stranded and incidentally their pitching staff has left the fewest.

Here's something else interesting, the difference between the Reds and Phillies seems to be their ability to hit late in games. Both teams have lousy pitching staffs and have about the same team ERA and allow about the same number of unearned runs. They score about the same in innings 1-6. The Reds go from the best scoring team in innings 1-6 to the worst in 7+. Phillie continues to have a high OBP and runs scored after the 7th. My observation is that the Reds continue to "try" to hit homers rather than attempting to string together hits and walks to create rallys. I'm not one of those idiots who think HRs kill rallys, but I'm a firm believer in hitting the ball where it is pitched rather than taking the same big hack and going for the long ball all the time.

The biggest problem with this team is it has no sychronicity. The weaknesses are compounded and the team overly relies upon individual performances to win games. This team primarily wins when they hit HRs and get outstanding starts from the pitchers. They don't win close games in late innings. 13 - 24 in close games.

Kyle Lohse's game log is a pretty good indicator of why this team is so bad. He has 16 starts. 5 times he has given up 2 or less runs and the Reds are 4-1 in those games. 5 times he has given up 3 or 4 (all in 6+ innings pitched) and they are 0-5. And 6 times he has given up 5+ runs and they are 0-6. In order for Lohse to win this year, he has had to be extraordinary. Good, consistent, teams would go 8-8 with those same 16 starts. BTW, 3-7 when Bronson gives up 3 or less.

Bottom line: this team has no confidence. They don't believe in each other. Every guy feels he has to do it himself. "Nobody is going to drive me in, so I have to hit a homer." "If I give up runs, nobody is going to score, so I have to throw a shut out." Teams that think like that play tight and are prone to mistakes. This team doesn't pick each other up or score "insurance" runs to put games away. Instead they let them slip away.
 
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MuckFich06;872874; said:
Bottom line: this team has no confidence. They don't believe in each other. Every guy feels he has to do it himself. "Nobody is going to drive me in, so I have to hit a homer." "If I give up runs, nobody is going to score, so I have to throw a shut out." Teams that think like that play tight and are prone to mistakes. This team doesn't pick each other up or score "insurance" runs to put games away. Instead they let them slip away.
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I agree. But at the same time, it is weird. You would think that bombing Seattle like they did in the first game would give them confidence going into games 2 and 3. But as I alluded to in a previous post, 16 runs in series is cool, as long as they aren't all in one game. I wasn't too far off, as we had 19 for the series. Weird.
 
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Agree with the no confidence bid but I say are just a mentally weak team.

Anytime a critical siuation arises, whenever "it counts" you can be sure they will do something dumb/unproductive. I'm a big stat guy but have none and need none to believe this is true. They are just a dumb team period.

It all stems from the management and corporate culture btw.

EDIT************

Had a second thought about the after 7th inning numbers. Thats about the time Jerry the Genius is substituting Hopper and Castro for Dunn and EE every night so that might have something to do with it.
 
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Here comes some typical Reds bullshit again tonight. Harang on the mound and we get 3 hits through 6 innings. Bases loaded now in the 7th with no out and Gonzalez up. We're down 3-0. Lets see what happens. I'm guessing K, and double play ball to end the inning. :!


WHAT!?!?! A 2 run double? Two guys still on and no outs? It cant be. Ross coming up and then the pitcher. Guaranteed to have Jerry Narron stroking it with his lineup card in the dugout. This ought to be good. :susp:


(Good job Gonzo!)
 
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OK Narron brings in Valentin to pinch hit for Ross, who then comes up with the game tying single. Runner on first and third with no outs Hamilton on deck and the pitcher up. SQUEEZE or Sacrifice Narron!!!! Do not pull Harang out of the game for a punch and Judy pinch hitter. Lets see what happens now.
 
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Holy Shite! The sacrifice happens gets Valentin to second, they are intentionally walking Hamilton to load the bases for Phillips. Any kind of contact here not right at someone should give the Reds the late inning lead we've been looking for. Way to go Brandon. Singles to center and Gozo scores. Nacho must have cheese on his cleats because he only makes it to third? Station to station, just how we like it huh?!

C'mon Jr. bring in the insurance that we're going to need. Harang's at 93 pitches so I'm guessing if he can make it throught the 8th with about 115 he'd stay in. Weathers comes in in the 9th with the save opportunity. Generally, thats what you hope for on a day to day basis, but not with this piece of crap you'd call a team. C'mon Jr.


YEESSSSSSS!!!!! God I love that guy. Hamilton scores from second also, glad to see a couple of guys still know how to play. And Phillips goes first to third, on a single. Its obvious to me who should be playing and where they should be playing. Too bad tomorrows lineup will look like a jigsaw puzzle. OK got to go to work now. Lets put up some more runs and let Harang get the win.
 
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Well, I've got my lineup card out. Here are my changes.

Take down Narron, and move Valentin to manager.

Put this guy as a defensive replacement for Valentin at catcher:

prorebounder1.jpg
 
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Ugh, thats why I try not to root for this team or even watch games anymore. You see something happen thats positive and start to think, my God they can do some things the right way. Immediately following an inning or a half later they do something so wrong that it completely covers up anything positive they have done previously. They're just awful. Plain and simple. They certainly don't deserve their paychecks.
 
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Bestbuck36;873089; said:
Ugh, thats why I try not to root for this team or even watch games anymore. You see something happen thats positive and start to think, my God they can do some things the right way. Immediately following an inning or a half later they do something so wrong that it completely covers up anything positive they have done previously. They're just awful. Plain and simple. They certainly don't deserve their paychecks.
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Very frustrating...I can't even watch a full game thru anymore...

I enjoy reading threads about the minors over at redszone than I do the reds club...
 
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One more positive note:

Don't look now but Dunn has the .avg up to .272. His OPS, I know a very popular stat these days, is 100 points over his career in the .930 range.

Livingston, Dumatrait, Votto and Bruce are almost here!
 
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